The Scene - Last Saturday Night
The Principal Player - Lead Man.
The Location - Smack dab in the Middle of Mediocrity at The Leadquarters.
To set the stage, The Lead ManTM had selected two documented winners, (Iowa State and Vandy) two documented losers, (LSU and Illinois) and pushed one game (Michigan State). He had only one game left on the weekend, his radio show's NFL bonus selection, the Arizona Cardinals. It is at this moment that the Lead ManTM asks himself a question all you players out there should be asking yourselves practically each and every time a tough wagering decision is in front of you;
Do you want to gamble - or do you want to win?
The gambler in the situation described above many times will say, "Man, I'm .500 with only one game remaining, I need to find some Sunday action in order to have a chance at a big winning weekend." The winner - and we all know The Lead ManTM is a winner, understands a few things. He understands that Arizona, ILO (that's In Lead's Opinion for the uninitiated), is by far the best pick on the NFL board. If Lead would have liked any other games as much as this one he would have already passed that information on to his followers in the form of a recommended public play.
He also understands that a win gives him a 60% mark for the weekend, well over the 53% success rate needed to make a profit from his book. In order to insure a trip to the window, he should only wager the very best plays on the weekend and not throw cash at undesirable contests in order to chase down a payday or dig himself out of a hole.
Lastly, and most importantly, the winner (IE the Lead ManTM) clearly understands a small win is far superior to any loss, and that over the course of a football season replacing losing weekends with small winning weekends is the difference between the gambler with a bankroll and a guy filling out another withdrawal ticket at his bank.
Players, you saw what unfolded. Arizona covers the game wire-to-wire for an easy victory. Lead ManTM is at the window Sunday night, booking a winning weekend.
Allow Lead to make one more thing clear. There is nothing wrong with gambling. If you choose to bet every game on the board, fine. If you want to have action on every game you watch on television over the weekend, feel free. Just understand that at the end of the day, you cannot expect to win this way. You're going to need to keep your wagering amount to a minimum. Make it an amount you are more than ok in losing, because eventually you will.
If you want to WIN you must have the discipline. If you want to WIN you must have confidence in your best plays. Lastly, if your goal is to WIN, simply follow the Lead Man's advice. Be a winner.
On to this weeks wagers:
The Miami of Ohio Red Hawks fly into Nippert Stadium to battle the Cincy Bearcats in the 113th battle for the Victory Bell. Cincy has had a week to recover from the Oklahoma contest, while Miami had to rally in order to get by Charleston Southern last weekend. Miami is struggling on offense as they are saddled with the MAC's worst running game as well as its least efficient offense. Combine this with the fact they are 108th in the nation in red zone efficiency and you can see why the Bearcats will be ringing that Victory Bell. Forget KRP, just count Cincinnati in for the W - and to cover the number.
Last week the Lead ManTM advised players to take the Iowa State Cyclones as underdogs in Ames. This week they travel to Vegas to battle UNLV, and they are again getting points. When the better team is getting the points, well, this is a wager the Lead ManTM likes to make. Iowa State has a better offensive team than they showed last week in terrible playing conditions. Look for the Cyclones to dominate up front and grind out a victory in the desert. While all the other humps in Vegas are leaving things to chance by playing keno and roulette, follow the Lead Man to the sports book and plunk down your bet on a winner.
Iowa State +2.5
Winless Rutgers sails into Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium to battle the Midshipmen on Saturday afternoon. Navy has the nation's leading rusher and look to turn him loose against a Rutgers defense that has a penchant for giving up the big play. Rutgers also has problems at the quarterback position and is committing far too many turnovers. Navy is far from an elite squad but a half a dozen is too many points, especially at home. The Naval Academy might not sink Rutgers, but they'll do enough to stay afloat and lose buoy less than 6.
Don't forget players, tonight at 10:30, the radio show that's taking over the internet airwaves, ‘The Pipe Line', is going to discuss these games and others in-depth and also provide you with some additional winning plays for your football weekend. Brian McPeek and yours truly have a jam packed show on tap. Listen in and give us a call if you have a query concerning any game on the board.