Can we replace the bats?

[Prosecutor]

The Indians lost eight hitters between this year and last; VMart, DeRosa, Garko, Shoppach, Carroll, Francisco, Dellucci, and Gimenez. OK, Gimenez is still on the team, but after hitting .144 last year I don't expect him to get another 111 at-bats in 2010.

I added up the numbers for these eight hitters (hitters being a term used very loosely in connection with Dellucci) and came up with a total of:

1,828 ABs
64 HRs
263 RBIs
499 hits

Dividing those numbers by 3 to get a line for one regular player gives us:

609 ABs, .273 avg, 21 HRs, 88 RBIs

So basically it's like we lost three every day players who all posted a line of .273/21/88. That's a lot to lose for a team that was slightly below the league average in runs scored (773 against 781).

Really it boils down to three players. Dellucci only had 40 at-bats. Francisco had an OPS of .713, which is weak for a corner outfielder. Shoppach hit .214, Gimenez hit .144, and Carroll had an OPS of only .695 despite a decent batting average. The guys we'll miss are VMart and his .832 OPS, Garko at .826, and DeRo at .799. Those guys combined for 37 HRs and 156 RBIs in 894 ABs.

The thing is, we only had those guys for half a season - the first half. DeRosa was traded at the end of June; VMart and Garko went at the end of July. At that point the Tribe was 43-60. And they had Cliff Lee, Pavano, and Betancourt up to the end of July as well.

Interestingly, the Tribe went 15-12 in August, which was the only winning month they had. Right after dumping their two best starters and three best offensive players (Grady had an off year), they actually started winning.

Once the September call-ups arrived the Tribe collapsed, going 7-25 in Sept and Oct.

As I see it the keys to replacing the lost bats this year will be Grady, Pronk, Brantley and LaPorta. Grady is healthy and needs to get back to being Grady. Pronk is a year removed from his surgery and needs to bring his production up a notch. Brantley and LaPorta have to show they were worth trading CC for. It would be great if Grudzielanak could get back to his 2008 form when he hit .299/.743, which would more than replace Jamey Carroll's numbers.

I can't see the Tribe scoring 773 runs again this year without Victor, Garko, and DeRosa, even if just for half a season. But they were actually able to win without those guys, and without Lee, at least for a month. It's up to Grady and the guys who are too old (Pronk, Grud) and too young (Brantley, LaPorta) now. I'm assuming Choo and Droobs continue to excel and Jhonny continues to be Jhonny.

Who will make up

[Rocky55]

I don't think that we can replace those numbers, especially the HR's; however:

I look for decent seasons from Marson & Brantley, and good seasons from Valbuena & LaPorta.

I could see:

LaPorta: .265, 20, 95, .330, .470

Valbuena: .280, 15, 65, .320, .420

Marson: .250, 5, 60, .330, .350

Brantley: .290, 8, 50 .360, .360 (30 2B's, 30 SB's)

How that translates to runs scored? I think that we probably score less but have the ability, with better baserunning & athleticism, to score more. How that translates to wins? I expect to win fewer this year then last. The pitching situation is to blame for that.

[skatingtripods]

Good research on this post. This is more of the stuff that TCF needs on the forums.

It's hard to get that production back. The catching tandem will be pretty lame until Santana shows up, and I expect him to struggle some as well. LaPorta, a better year from Grady and Peralta, and a decent average and runs scored from Brantley should offset some of what we lost.

[The Tribe Zone]

I'm not sold on Jhonny being Jhonny......

The big question with his move to 3rd would be could he defensively handle it, which I would say he did pretty well at .....

But his hitting suffered....

And he had beefs with Wedge....

I think we'll see him settle in defensively this year, and his hitting will go back up....

Just my opinion....

[Prosecutor]

You have a point about Peralta. He had a down year in 2009. His OPS was .691 - his lowest in five years. The previous two seasons his OPS was .771 and .804. Something happened to his power; he hit 21 and 23 HRs the last two years before dropping to 11 last year - a decrease of 50%. And his average dropped 22 points. Maybe moving from short to third after DeRosa was traded screwed up his hitting.

The interesting thing is despite hitting only .254 with 11 HRs, he still managed to drive in 83 runs, only 6 less than the year before when all his other numbers were much better. And he had fewer at-bats in 2009. My only explanation is that he was a hell of a clutch hitter last year.

So even if he gets back to .770 and 22 HRs this year, I don't know if he'll be that much more productive. Peralta's job is to drive in runs from the middle of the lineup. He doesn't hit for average, he has no speed, he doesn't hit many HRs. He's nothing special defensively. His value pretty much lies in his ability to drive in runs, and he did a good job of that last year. He's never driven in 100 runs so 83 is about what you get from him even in a good year. I'm not expecting much more out of Jhonny than we got last year, if anything.

But not having to switch positions in mid-season and having a Latin manager may be good for Jhonny. I think he'll get back to his career numbers (.756 OPS) and have a better year with the bat, but his RBI total won't get much higher, and that's where his value is.

Rocky, I'm pretty high on LaPorta but I don't know if he drives in 95 runs and puts up an OPS of .800 in what is basically his rookie season. I also don't know about Valbuena's average jumping from .250 to .280. It depends on how much he plays against lefties. If Grud plays second against lefties we could have a very good 2B platoon, at least offensively. Grud turns 40 in June and I'm not sure how much ground he covers anymore. I hope he's not the infield version of Dave Dellucci, but if he is we still have a couple of other options.

I can see those numbers for Marson and Brantley. One thing we won't see is the Tribe leading the league by a wide margin in hit batters again this year, not with Garko and Shoppach moving on. Those guys were ball magnets.

[The Tribe Zone]

I didn't post numbers, but I think he'll do better than those you posted Prosecutor.....(his 'best' numbers)

I never had any doubts he could handle 3rd......

I think he'll get back to 20-25 hr's.....he'll better the 88 rbi's.....

Slump hitting can be a bitch, anyone who's played knows, anything and nothing can cause a slump....seems like he was in and out of them for most of the season....

I'll go out on a limb alittle ways and say this year will show he's a better 3rd than SS.......

[ArtGold]

I agree about Peralta, with Wedge gone I think he'll play much better this year. I suspect he didn't like the way Wedge handled his move to 3rd, and unfortunately it showed in his bat.

Looking at some of the other performance, I think the numbers Rocky posted for Valbuena, LaPorta, Marson and Brantley seem pretty reasonable. I look for Sizemore to bounce back a bit too. Overall, I think the offense won't be too bad, and the defense major league average too. But the starting pitching...

[Prosecutor]

Looking at Peralta's splits, there were some interesting numbers. He started and ended slow. The guy hit only .211 in April and finished the season hitting .169 in Sept and Oct. My take is that he hates to play in cold weather and doesn't start hitting until it warms up a bit. Then he lost interest or got worn down with a month left in the season.

As for clutch hitting, he made his living with the bases loaded. 25 RBI in 21 bases loaded at-bats with a .476 average. Wow. That's nearly a third of his total RBIs in only 21 at-bats. But he only hit .220 with runners in scoring position and two out, so he was something of a rally killer.

Hopefully Acta can impress upon Jhonny the importance of getting motivated for Opening Day. If Jhonny could have hit a little in April and September, he would have had a pretty good season.

[dpdad]

Geez, when I read the headline, I was worried the Dolans couldn't afford to buy new bats for the team this year.

As I see it the keys to replacing the lost bats this year will be Grady, Pronk, Brantley and LaPorta. Grady is healthy and needs to get back to being Grady. Pronk is a year removed from his surgery and needs to bring his production up a notch. Brantley and LaPorta have to show they were worth trading CC for.

Grady will be fine, IMO. Pronk minus the juice is washed up. Brantley and LaPorta need to play on a regular basis. Just pencil them into the lineup and leave them there.

Never been a big fan of Peralta, but I would give him a chance to get settled in at 3B. If he struggles to start the season, I would have no problem with trading him if I could get a pitching prospect or two.

[The Tribe Zone]

I think it is safe to say, when we all read of Peralta's woes, they are clearly of the mental, attitude, category. I'm confident we have nailed it with that assumption, belief.

All good players have the ability somewhat, to turn it on and off when they feel like it. Peralta turned it on enough, to keep himself in the game, and off, probably to make someone look like an ass (Wedge?)

If Acta can get into Jhonnys head and remind him he is part of the core here, and his bat should be leading the team in several categories, puffing him up, instead of tearing him down, problem is solved. It is often that simple.

You can agree with what someone says about you, but you don't have to like how they say it, and I think many times that was a problem with the leadership of this team.....I remember quite a few times, after a game and Wedge was answering questions, If I was one of the players, I'd have been pissed...

In fact, the whole grinder bullshit pissed me off....I think that goes without saying most of the time, everyones out there busting ass. Quit bringing it up, move on to something else...
That just can't be the best part about the players all the time...

[rebelwithoutaclue]

The interesting thing is despite hitting only .254 with 11 HRs, he still managed to drive in 83 runs, only 6 less than the year before when all his other numbers were much better. And he had fewer at-bats in 2009. My only explanation is that he was a hell of a clutch hitter last year.

Or that RBI's are based on variables outside the control of the hitter. Jhonny had 25 RBI's last year in 21 AB's with the bases loaded (1.099 OPS). In the rest of his AB's with RISP his OPS was .686 (71 RBI's in 185 AB's). For comparison's sake his OPS with nobody on was .748.


I see no reason for Jhonny not to have a good year. The position switch is behind him. His arch-nemisis is gone and replaced with someone he might actually be able to relate to. I could easily see .275/25/100 from Jhonny.

[skatingtripods]

Looking at Peralta's splits, there were some interesting numbers. He started and ended slow. The guy hit only .211 in April and finished the season hitting .169 in Sept and Oct. My take is that he hates to play in cold weather and doesn't start hitting until it warms up a bit. Then he lost interest or got worn down with a month left in the season.

This is the key. Interest. The dude always looks so laissez-faire about EVERYTHING. The way he goes to a ball, the way he never gives even a small fist pump after a big base hit, never seems to bitch about a call. It honestly bothers me. Show some emotion. I'm not looking for Carlos Zambrano or Dickhead Papsmear, I just want something. Let me know you're involved emotionally in the game. Go Shoppach on a bat once in a while.

That said, he tries too hard a lot of the time. I know that sounds contradictory, but he's so pull-happy, looking for the 3-run HR instead of the 2-run 2B up the RF alley. Pulling off the ball on breaking balls on the outer half. He's at his best when he goes oppo. Hopefully Acta and the rest of the staff get him to understand that.

[IronMike]

Prosecutor and TribeZone ALWAYS enjoy your posts. Keep up the great work.

Regarding Peralta, would rather have Joe Crede with a broken back than a player who has no spark or drive, attitude problems and quite honestly lacks intelligence.

[IronMike]

Prosecutor and TribeZone ALWAYS enjoy your posts. Keep up the great work.

Regarding Peralta, would rather have Joe Crede with a broken back than a player who has no spark or drive, attitude problems and quite honestly lacks intelligence.

[Prosecutor]

For all intents and purposes this is a salary drive year for Jhonny. He's making $3.65 million this year and the Tribe has an option for next year at something like $7 million. There is no possible way the Tribe will pick up that option. One, he's not worth anywhere near that kind of money, two, the Indians can't afford it even if he was, and three, Chiz should be ready to step up and he'll make a small fraction of that.

So Jhonny will be looking for a new team next off season. Even if we trade him, nobody will pick up that option. Jhonny is coming off a subpar season and he needs to put up some good numbers to get his value as high as possible for 2011. I expect we'll see a harder working and more motivated Peralta than we've seen since his breakout season.

Basically he just needs to finish the season. He was hitting .276 at the end of August, which is right where he should be. He just tanked the last five weeks of the season. Maybe he got pissed at Wedge, or maybe he just mailed it in after Lee, VMart, Raffie, Pavano, Garko, and DeRo got traded and Grady went on IR.

Jhonny is 28 and in the prime of his career. This season will go a long way to determining how much money he makes over the next four years or so. I expect that he'll be bearing down, in his own non-demonstrative way.

If Jhonny and Grady can both improve on last year's numbers that will help replace the loss of Victor, DeRo, and Garko.

As for Hafner, some folks are convinced that steroids were his downfall, but there's no question he was injured. His shoulder needed surgery, and after the surgery he was able to play more and hit better. With another off-season to strengthen the shoulder I'm hoping he can improve his production by a modest amount this year.

[Rocky55]

I believe that Hafner can "improve his production" by just managing to play in more games this year. Last years'.825 OPS is not what he's being paid for but if he does that this year, over 500+AB's, he'll solidify this years offense. It is possible, with realistic improvement from our yoots(saw My Cousin Vinny again last night), that we could have a quite good & versatile offense.

Again, I don't expect this team to win much but that doesn't mean that they won't be worth watching. I'm planning on taking my grandson to a game when I travel north to visit my Dad in June.

[Prosecutor]

Good point, Rocky. I'm not sure Pronk will be up to getting 500 ABs next year, though. That would be a 50% increase over last year. But he should be able to get 450 or so, and if his shoulder is a little stronger maybe his OPS improves to .850. That, and the extra at-bats makes him a productive hitter, although it still doesn't justify his salary as you pointed out.

[IronMike]

A snippet on MLB Rumors includes the Indians are talking to Hank Blalock, as well as Dye and Branyan. Can Blalock still use his 3rd sacker glove?

[Bigfist]

A snippet on MLB Rumors includes the Indians are talking to Hank Blalock, as well as Dye and Branyan. Can Blalock still use his 3rd sacker glove?

Unless I am not reading these stats right, it looks to me as if Blalock hasn't played any amount of significant time at 3B since 2006. Last year, he only played in one game at 3b and 66 at 1B, and I am guessing a considerable amount of time at DH. Plus he is a left handed hitter who missed a considerable amount of time in 2007 and 2008. Unless he is signed to a minor league deal, I can't see the need to sign him.

[Prosecutor]

The Indians are top-heavy with lefty hitters. The most likely starting lineup will include five exclusively left-handed hitters: Choo, Sizemore, Brantley, Valbuena, and Hafner. The right-handed bats are Peralta, LaPorta, and Marson. Cabrera is a switch-hitter.

Given that LaPorta and Marson are basically rookies and Peralta hit only .254 with 11 HRs last year, the Tribe could use a right-handed bat, hence the signing of 39-year-old Mark Grudzielanek and the interest in Jermaine Dye. I don't understand the rumored interest in Branyon and Blalock.

Obviously they have no confidence in Andy Marte if they're looking at Dye, who just turned down an offer of more than $3 million from the Cubs.