The Gamblers Den

by **swerb** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 8:04 pm

Over 65 tonight is my play.

Really have a hard time seeing either team stopping each other tonight. Leaning Utah -8, may play a small parlay with them and the over.

Service academies are 20-6 ATS in bowls, but Navy lost Paul Johnson to GT, giving the new coach (off coord) just a little over a week to get ready for this one.

by **yargs7** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 11:02 pm

I went 9-2 in the 1st 11 bowl games last year...then I lost every single game from that point on.

Utah -9 tonight.

by **swerb** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 11:15 pm

yargs7 wrote:I went 9-2 in the 1st 11 bowl games last year...then I lost every single game from that point on.

Utah -9 tonight.

I remember Yargs ... we were chronicling our picks in here. As soon as I started coattailin' you, you went in the tank.

by **waborat** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:29 am

Damn backdoor cover!!!

Well, at least the over slipped in there

by **swerb** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 10:58 am

Game was like 7-0 halfway through the 2nd quarter. Fell asleep on the couch in the 3rd ... woke up at 5 in the morning .... look up at the TV, the replay of the game is on, like 4 min left before that crazy ending.

Good way to start the morning. Good way to start the bowl season.

If you haven't noticed, my plays don't cover quite as easily and stress-free as Lead Pipes. :eek: :o :-o

by **swerb** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:00 am

Like the over in this one again tonight ... have been going back and forth on the side, so I will abstain. Both teams playing well.

Just don't get much better than Florida Atlantic/Memphis on a Friday night in December.

by **Nicastro13** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 11:40 am

Gotta go with the better conference...Thats right the sunbelt, I'm takin FAU -2.5

by **swerb** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 12:03 pm

Nicastro13 wrote:Gotta go with the better conference...Thats right the sunbelt

What is, "things you don't hear often in message forums", Alex?

by **Nicastro13** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 2:25 pm

good stuff

by **waborat** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 4:36 pm

FLA ATL -2.5...bought on Monday and it's currently -3.5 which means fade me and go with Memphis

by **yargs7** » Fri Dec 21, 2007 8:45 pm

0 for 1 after getting backdoored badly last night.

Comin back swingin.

Memphis M/L +140

by **waborat** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:20 am

Almost hit the over in the first half!!!

FAU looks strong...no backdoor cover tonight...(gulp) I hope

by **swerb** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 11:14 am

Easy cover last night with the over.

Southern Miss today is my play. Think this is going to be a very close game, So Miss is at full strength for the first time all year, and playing their last game for a HC that is well liked and many feel should not have been let go.

Leaning slightly towards New Mexico in the 4:00 game, may make a small play. After losing in their home stadium in this same bowl last year, I feel they get it done this season. I think NM has some line value here due to Nevada's win over Mia Fl in their bowl last year, and also them playing Hawaii tough late in the season.

Pass on BYU/UCLA. Everything points to BYU in this one, but UCLA beat them already this year, is 5-0 ATS as a dog this season, and I think they may actually play better now that they rid themselves of that moron Dorrell.

by **leadpipe** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 11:57 am

Swerb wrote:Easy cover last night with the over.

Southern Miss today is my play. Think this is going to be a very close game, So Miss is at full strength for the first time all year, and playing their last game for a HC that is well liked and many feel should not have been let go.

Leaning slightly towards New Mexico in the 4:00 game, may make a small play. After losing in their home stadium in this same bowl last year, I feel they get it done this season. I think NM has some line value here due to Nevada's win over Mia Fl in their bowl last year, and also them playing Hawaii tough late in the season.

Pass on BYU/UCLA. Everything points to BYU in this one, but UCLA beat them already this year, is 5-0 ATS as a dog this season, and I think they may actually play better now that they rid themselves of that moron Dorrell.

Today is a nice example as to why this bowl season is going to be tough. You've got either solid lines, or in the case of today, some goofy scenarios.

First off, a pass on the BYU game is a good call. That game has ballooned to 6.5. UCLA shouldn't be that big of a dog, but they are in disarray. They can get to the quarterback, and Hall, like many aren't use to pressure and is effected adversly. Lead wouldn't touch this one with another cappers pencil.

Swerb, you bring up the health and head coach for S. Miss. Both valid points. However, Lead knows one thing - that Cincy is clearly the better team in all phases. Not sure that's enough points, especially if Mauk is sharp. S. Miss is going to need to score above their normal output. UnLeaded.

Lead like the freshman QB leading the Nevada pistol offense, but a home bowl game for New Mexico makes this another tough one. If the fresh handles the situation, New Mexico's D is going to have their hands full.

by **waborat** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 11:59 am

Wow Swerb, we see things a little differently today?

Cincy -10'....I hate laying this kinda chalk, but SMU's only chance is to run the ball and I see the Bearcats D to be too tough here

Nev +3.....until the Lobos win a bowl game then I can't lay points with them (especially with their best offensive player out)...the home field didn't help them last year and I don't see it happening again

We do agree with you on the Vegas Bowl...it's really up to UCLA if they want to keep it close or not? BYU will have a lot of fans in the stands and they did beat the Bruins statistically in the first meeting...I like BYU to win, but who knows by how much?

NFL: Hard not to like Dallas -10' in this one...I'll go by one trend: SU winner in all CAR games this year has won ATS....I just can't see Moore having any time to throw against the Cow D on 3rd downs (and there should be a lot of 3rd downs)

I'm not a fan of teasers, but hard for me not to take this card for the weekend:

Cin (ncaa) -0.5
Dal -0.5
Sea -0.5

Nice day for hoops too...

by **waborat** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 12:01 pm

Enjoy seeing that I'm on the same page as you Lead :mrgreen:

by **Nicastro13** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 12:09 pm

Cincy is my bet today, I think they roll

Again the C-USA is a joke

by **yargs7** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 1:08 pm

Cincy -10.5
Nevada +3

by **swerb** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 2:45 pm

Swerb, you bring up the health and head coach for S. Miss. Both valid points. However, Lead knows one thing - that Cincy is clearly the better team in all phases. Not sure that's enough points, especially if Mauk is sharp. S. Miss is going to need to score above their normal output. UnLeaded.

No doubt Lead.

This is one of those games though, you have one team very happy to be here, and one team in Cincy that got passed over for two more legitimate bowls, and landed here. In addition, So Miss has the motivation of playing for a well liked coach who is coaching his last game for the school after being fired in a somewhat unpopular move.

Cincinnati is the more talented team, but I like this to be a game decided in the final minutes due to the above factors.

by **waborat** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 3:02 pm

BYU has moved an entire point since this morning

by **waborat** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 4:19 pm

If Cincy doesn't pull Mauk soon then they aren't going to win this game let alone cover

Other than the 40 yd run by Fletcher the Bearcats D looks excellent as usual

Nice pick Swerb! Like you said, one team playing over their heads for their coach and the other team very uninspired

by **yargs7** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 4:24 pm

Swerb wrote:
yargs7 wrote:I went 9-2 in the 1st 11 bowl games last year...then I lost every single game from that point on.

Utah -9 tonight.

I remember Yargs ... we were chronicling our picks in here. As soon as I started coattailin' you, you went in the tank.

Add Memphis to that slide and Cincy today. I am officially the Prairie View A&M of bowl handicapping.

by **waborat** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 4:53 pm

yargs7 wrote:
Add Memphis to that slide and Cincy today. I am officially the Prairie View A&M of bowl handicapping.

Don't count Cincy out yet...what a turn of events as talent is actually starting to take over

by **Guest** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 6:48 pm

Cincy vs S Miss, 2 terrible teams, yet I couldn't turn it off.
Nothing better than college football(until March Madness comes around)

by **waborat** » Sat Dec 22, 2007 7:11 pm

I just knew Mauk would cost me that game...arrrrrgh!

by **waborat** » Sun Dec 23, 2007 12:23 pm

Nice card yesterday Swerb....both in pigskin & hoops!!!

I'm leaning towards EC +11 tonight against the Smurfs

by **swerb** » Sun Dec 23, 2007 12:43 pm

Like ECU tonight.

Another team that is finally healthy. Played a tough outta conference slate this year, ECU actually played 6 bowl teams this season. And they are awesome underdogs who are well aware of the fact they're getting 11 points.

Maybe ECU outright. High scoring game that goes down to the final horn.

by **swerb** » Sun Dec 23, 2007 1:05 pm

80% on Boise at Wagerline

by **yargs7** » Sun Dec 23, 2007 9:01 pm

Another reason to take ECU?

I'm on Boise -11 (0-4)

by **waborat** » Thu Dec 27, 2007 7:21 pm

Like the Sun Devils tonight getting the points....also a small lean to the over (I just can't see Texas' D stopping Carpenter)

This is ANOTHER solid line. If I had to take the game I'd go Horns, but for the same reason as you - I don't think ASU will stop Texas enough. But, in the end this might be a classic "last team with the ball" type of game.

All the reason more for Lead to lay off this game. He doesn't need the wild swings this game may bring.

For the record Lead sees this as the toughest bowl season in regards to wagering he can ever remember.

Vegas is getting awfully good.

by **swerb** » Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:15 pm

Hook em Horns tonight.

by **Guest** » Thu Dec 27, 2007 8:33 pm

I really like Texas, I thought the number would be more.
Texas has a lot more talent, but Mack Brown is known for losing games they should win.
Should be a good one.

by **Joens** » Thu Dec 27, 2007 9:35 pm

should be a good high scoring game.

i got texas

by **waborat** » Thu Dec 27, 2007 11:23 pm

....just when you think you've seen everything in football...lol

by **Joens** » Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:54 am

god that was well..... bizarre i would feel lovely if i was him :x :mad: :-x

by **waborat** » Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:18 am

That play would have been perfect for one of those commercials: "Wanna Get Away?"

by **Nicastro13** » Fri Dec 28, 2007 11:12 am

Takin BC & TCU tonight, also like Maryland, but probably won't take 'em

by **Joens** » Fri Dec 28, 2007 12:04 pm

That play would have been perfect for one of those commercials: "Wanna Get Away?"

yah but only if they lost by 6 or 7 points

by **waborat** » Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:13 pm

At a quick glance there is no doubt BC should be the play tonight...still not sure why I'm not ready to pull it though? This line hasn't really moved with the suspensions and MSU was in almost every game this past season...the big ? is whether the Sparties can run against BC...I do like it to be high scoring

Still looking at the other games tonight....good arguments for both the Terps & Beavs tonight so I'll probably stay away

by **swerb** » Fri Dec 28, 2007 1:36 pm

Playing Maryland and TCU tonight, pass on BC/MSU ... I like the Spartans, but the suspensions terrify me, especially them missing their bad ass DE.

by **waborat** » Fri Dec 28, 2007 6:39 pm

Dantonio's boys are now at +6.5 (even)...too much value there for me not to go small on a team that was in just about every game they played this year...

Hopefully the 2 headed running game can keep Ryan off the field?

by **waborat** » Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:21 pm

Really like A&M +5' in the late game....lean to the unders in the 2 early games

Terps kicker kept me from having a very nice day last night...nice backdoor by the Sparties though!!!!

by **waborat** » Sat Dec 29, 2007 2:48 pm

Seems like all of the media is on Wake today...I really believe that sharp $$ has pushed this line down...so I'll play:

UConn +2

by **swerb** » Sat Dec 29, 2007 3:12 pm

Got Wake and Penn State today .... pass on UCF/Miss St

by **TBAGG** » Sat Dec 29, 2007 5:28 pm

Under in MSU/UCF. Smith struggled against the only legit defense (55 yds vs SO Florida) they played this season. MSU doesn't normally put up a ton of points (22 ppg).

by **TBAGG** » Sat Dec 29, 2007 8:28 pm

Well that UCF under was easy. Sunday I love Chi +2

by **swerb** » Mon Dec 31, 2007 12:15 pm

Three games I really like today ...

Oregon
Fresno
Clemson

by **yargs7** » Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:28 pm

Air Force +4.5
Indiana +4.5

by **TBAGG** » Mon Dec 31, 2007 1:32 pm

I like Auburn tonight. Remember Bowden is terrible in bowl games and Clemson is without their top tackler and 3rd in tackles at LB.

by **Nicastro13** » Mon Dec 31, 2007 2:10 pm

I got Af + 4
and USF -7

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