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Just Lead Man Being Lead Man

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Just Lead Man Being Lead Man

Unread postby leadpipe » Sun Oct 14, 2007 1:48 am

If not for an oh by the way, garbage time TD drive by UNLV, the Lead Man would've swept the board today. But, as it stands, 80% is a winning percentage in anyone's book.

Also players who wagered Sabathia and Carmona per Lead's value alert split the games, but because of the value, won money. And, winning money is what The Lead Man does.

Next week players, don't gamble on the games. Just follow Lead, and collect.

Lastly, those of you trying to get a hold of Lead. Monday morning is out. He'll be makin' a deposit.
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Unread postby fundamentals » Mon Oct 15, 2007 7:10 am

Lead- you said there was no value in taking the Indians for series. I took them anyways. Having said that, what's your take on the direction of gams 3,4,5. Games 1 and 2 I had the over and the Indians so I am 3 out of 4 so far. thanks lead
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Unread postby swerb » Mon Oct 15, 2007 8:10 am

Lead, nice work. Shit, nice season so far.
"It's like dating a woman who hates you so much she will never break up with you, even if you burn down the house every single autumn." ~ Chuck Klosterman on Browns fans relationship with the Browns

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Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Oct 16, 2007 12:11 am

fundamentals wrote:Lead- you said there was no value in taking the Indians for series. I took them anyways. Having said that, what's your take on the direction of gams 3,4,5. Games 1 and 2 I had the over and the Indians so I am 3 out of 4 so far. thanks lead


Here's the deal funds, taking a team for the series if they win has some value, but if you beleive they will win, using the money to bet BY game has more value. In the Indians case this year there are two reasons, 1. On a series bet the house takes more juice. If you looks at your ticket, let's say you got the series for the Tribe a +125. If you look at many books Boston would be -165 or so favorite. If you are going up against a favorite who is -165, you should be getting paid a hell of a lot more than 125. An example, in the yanks opener, the Yanks were a -130 favorite, and the Tribe was +120. Notice the reduction for the house. and this brings me to reason #2, which is, in the above game mentioned, you had CC, at home, against an average pitcher at +120!!! That is a huge value. If CC beat Wang only 45% of the time, you make money. Getting a Cy Young candidate, at home, against an average pitcher. The Tribe is going to win that game more than 45% of the time. Yankee bias and all other square money created a great deal. Here is what Lead has done with the Tribe this post season;

Game #1 Yanks, as mentioned above +120 (Win)
Game #2 Yanks, Carmona +130. Again Cy Young candidate at home etc. (win)
Game #3 Yanks Westbrook +140. Against an aging Roger Clemens. Westbrook is every bit as good as Roger Clemens in 2007, (loss)
Game #4 UnLeaded. Mailnly because I don't think Byrd is good, but you can see, by betting indidvidual games I was able to eliminate an undesirable bet.

Game #1 Boston CC +140 Same deal, except facing a stud, still +140 reduces the needed success rate down to 40%. Too much value for that good of a pitcher (Loss)
Game #2 Boston Carmona +115. The far better pitcher a dog, Lead is in (win)
Game #3 Boston Westbrook +115. Dice K is done, Westbrook at home, a dog. Please (win)

So, 4-2 ALL DOGS. Tribe wagerers by game need to hit only about 46% to show a profit. And, as you can see, these games and match-ups are going to yield a much better percentage.

To your questions, Lead will use his same pattern, looking for value with excellent starters. The Three best starters in all the playoffs were CC, Faust and Beckett. You can bet two of those three as Dogs EVERY game thus far. That's what Lead is doing. I haven't wagered totals because the match-ups have been too good. As a rule, Lead recommends overs in the first two rounds and under in the World Series. The numbers gave Lead this info.

good Luck player.
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Unread postby fundamentals » Tue Oct 16, 2007 6:11 am

Lead-upped record in cleveland series to 5-1 as westbrook and the under was the play. thoughts on today's matchup?
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Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Oct 16, 2007 2:25 pm

fundamentals wrote:Lead-upped record in cleveland series to 5-1 as westbrook and the under was the play. thoughts on today's matchup?


Lead has no idea of what to expect from Wakefield.
Lead has little confidence in Byrd.

No action, or UnLeaded.
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Unread postby Nicastro13 » Wed Oct 17, 2007 11:11 am

Any thoughts on Game Five with CC Going?

Can we expect a weekly column throughout football season? WHat about hoops?
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Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Oct 17, 2007 2:48 pm

Nicastro13 wrote:Any thoughts on Game Five with CC Going?

Can we expect a weekly column throughout football season? WHat about hoops?


Lead is holding off right now. He believes that CC will gain value as time goes by, as has been the trend in these Tribe games. +110 right now, but I believe you'll get a better number tomorrow. Lead feels, a possible Cy Young winner, at home, should be wagered as a dog. Especially if he gets to +115, +120.

A weekly column in the football season, along with previews and specials on events.

With the way Lead's football season and post season baseball games have been going, he's not looking ahead. The Tribe A Dog EVERY game. Beautiful.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Oct 18, 2007 12:06 am

+115 as of midnight. Lead thinks it will go to 120 sometime Thursday afternoon.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Oct 18, 2007 4:35 pm

Now at +120. An automatic play.

Again, a +120 needs to win only 45% of the time to be profitable.
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Unread postby Nicastro13 » Mon Oct 22, 2007 9:37 am

tough weekend for you Lead what happened?
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Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Oct 23, 2007 5:10 pm

Nicastro13 wrote:tough weekend for you Lead what happened?


Indeed. You can't win em all, I suppose. The disgusting thing was Lead had a feeling about PennState and Paterno, as mentioned in the article. From a talent standpoint that was an easy cover, yet the Nittany Lions have THREE drives starting inside the opponents 15 and get a Joe Pa like 9 total points after the guy runs the most obviuos play imaginable 9 times.

No excuse, by the way, cause shit happens, that's why it's not an easy task to HONESTLY cap, but Lead saw it comin, so that one was tough to take. Kansas was solid, Tulsa a big dissappointment, and after streaking out 14-0, Nevada just made a few too many mistakes.

We'll get em' this week.
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Unread postby Nicastro13 » Wed Oct 24, 2007 9:26 am

Kansas has been lights out all year, also I've been on Troy, year after year all they do is cover.
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Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Oct 24, 2007 4:52 pm

Nicastro13 wrote:Kansas has been lights out all year, also I've been on Troy, year after year all they do is cover.


Troy over North Texas last week was a good play.
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Unread postby swerb » Mon Oct 29, 2007 11:21 am

Lead Man back on track with a nice 5-2 week.
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