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The 2014 Offseason Thread

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Re: The 2014 Offseason Thread

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:28 pm

Victorino wound up being great. Huge part of that team. 5.6 WAR. Above average bat and defense. I'm really surprised, as it seemed he was trending downward. He made almost the entire value of that contract in Season One, so it looks like a great deal.

I don't think Cabrera was ever going to be traded for Bauer. Kevin Towers, for all his stupidity, wanted a controlled, young SS. I'm still disappointed that we couldn't trade Cabrera to STL for whatever pitcher(s) they were offering, but no sense crying over that.

The Indians made the playoffs with below average offensive years from Bourn, Swisher, and Cabrera. And, really, Swisher and Cabrera were well below average. Swisher wasn't healthy, Bourn never seemed comfortable, and Cabrera was playing through nagging quad injuries, but that's become a hallmark of his career. Never healthy.

I'm sure a lot of teams were interested in Choo. I imagine Arizona was because he lives there in the offseason, so an extension would have been a possibility. They weighed the risk-reward and opted for Gregorius and getting a third team involved. I think it was smart on their part.

There aren't any rumored transactions I can point to and say 'I wish that got done' except Cabrera for pitching from STL. But Cabrera could play an integral part in the offense this year, so maybe it will work out for the best.
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Re: The 2014 Offseason Thread

Unread postby googleeph2 » Wed Jan 29, 2014 3:00 pm

If Cabrera shows up out of shape, and/or seems to have a lackadaisical approach, and/or just doesn't hit:

I wonder if instead of ramping up to a nice FA contract, or even getting dealt midseason, just how close he might get to riding the bench after the break if Lindor's play pushes him to Cleveland.
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Re: The 2014 Offseason Thread

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:03 am

The Hardball Times wrote up a piece today on the size of the strike zone in the PITCHf/x era: http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-strike ... um=twitter

Long read, but the numbers are pretty impressive, especially with the increase in called strikes at the knees. THT made this a free article because it's up for a SABR Award in Contemporary Baseball Research.
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Re: The 2014 Offseason Thread

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:54 pm

googleeph2 wrote:If Cabrera shows up out of shape, and/or seems to have a lackadaisical approach, and/or just doesn't hit:

I wonder if instead of ramping up to a nice FA contract, or even getting dealt midseason, just how close he might get to riding the bench after the break if Lindor's play pushes him to Cleveland.


He won't, it's his money year. Tribe's betting that he will be extremely motivated to play well next year.
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Re: The 2014 Offseason Thread

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jan 30, 2014 2:11 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:
googleeph2 wrote:If Cabrera shows up out of shape, and/or seems to have a lackadaisical approach, and/or just doesn't hit:

I wonder if instead of ramping up to a nice FA contract, or even getting dealt midseason, just how close he might get to riding the bench after the break if Lindor's play pushes him to Cleveland.


He won't, it's his money year. Tribe's betting that he will be extremely motivated to play well next year.


BSOHL alert on Cabrera. I set the over/under at 2 p.m. on the first day he reports to camp before we get the BSOHL comment from somebody.

He's not an idiot. He knows he lost money with his 2013 season. From 2008-12, Cabrera was sixth in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ among SS. Dropped to eighth in wOBA. Still fifth in wRC+, but the position is getting worse offensively again.

SS as a whole were 14% below league average offensively last year. On that alone, Cabrera's worth some money. His big problem last season was the ridiculous spike in strikeouts. We'll see what they do to fix it.
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Re: The 2014 Offseason Thread

Unread postby googleeph2 » Thu Jan 30, 2014 5:43 pm

skatingtripods wrote:FWIW, I think I'd rather have Arroyo than Garza. You know what you're getting in Arroyo. Garza's a big unknown with the injury issues he's had. Arroyo constantly outpitched his advanced metrics in a great hitter's park. He might be pretty decent in a neutral park. More importantly, 199+ IP every year since 2005.


I would LOVE Arroyo as a back of rotation starter. I do not believe he'd cost a pick to sign. Last year, he said he'll want 3yrs at 13/yr but he's not getting that.

Now you're hearing 2 yrs + option might be where the market is.

Is there an accepted salary range where the Indians could jump in?

The consistency is really what I like, for a Tribe staff that often pitches the bullpen a lot of innings. On the Reds staff, Bailey might flirt with a nohitter from time to time, but it sure seems Arroyo gives them a chance to win more often.
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Re: The 2014 Offseason Thread

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jan 30, 2014 9:14 pm

No draft pick compensation on Arroyo.

He's durable, which I love, but if he regresses to his advanced metrics, he's below league average. Changing leagues probably won't help him with a high HR rate and he gets by because he doesn't walk guys. Add another hitter, and overall better hitters, in the American League and it's dicey.

I'd offer him 4 or 5M per for a multi-year deal and 6M for a one-year deal and see what he says. It's a lowball offer, but teams aren't beating down the door for Bronson Arroyo.

This is a pretty good post from Eno Sarris on Arroyo: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/bronso ... ndem-post/

Really, though I like Arroyo in large part because of his durability, you have to ask yourself if Josh Tomlin, now reasonably healthy after Tommy John, can put up similar numbers to what Arroyo would put up in the AL. I'd probably put Arroyo in the 4.30/4.75/4.40 range for ERA/FIP/xFIP in the AL (4.19/4.54/4.39 career) (4.19/4.07/4.69 from 03-05 w/ Boston). I'll leave out Tomlin's ERA, but his career FIP/xFIP is 4.58/4.42.

And McAllister can probably do better, if not similar. So Arroyo's probably not a real possibility for the Indians as they have cheaper, similar starters available. I'm just enamored with a guy that can give you 200 league average innings. Theoretically, you can cobble McAllister and Tomlin together to give you something around that at a fraction of the price.

I guess I don't like Arroyo as much as I initially thought. Progressive's a neutral park, but the Indians still aren't very good defensively and a lot of balls are in play against Arroyo.
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Re: The 2014 Offseason Thread

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:16 pm

Good stuff from Jeff Sullivan on Ubaldo from Fangraphs the other day:

Jimenez made his 24th start on August 17th, in Oakland. He finished with a 4.00 ERA and a 4.33 FIP, and he’d averaged about 1.8 strikeouts per walk. Three of five pitches had gone for strikes. Batters had reached against him at a .335 clip. The average AL starter last year threw 63.5% of pitches for strikes. Jimenez had reached or exceeded that rate in five games out of 24. Jimenez looked better than he did the season before, but he remained ever so inconsistent. He certainly wasn’t putting himself in position to cash in on the free-agent market.


Also cites Jimenez's last eight starts (1.66 ERA, 1.28 FIP) and the competition they came against.
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