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The real draft

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The real draft

Unread postby jb » Thu Dec 12, 2013 12:54 pm

I'm starting to do what I swear I will never do again, and that's locking in on one player. I'm getting all Ralphie Red Ryder.

That player is Sammy Watkins. I get weepy thinking of him and JG on opposite ends. Legit 4.3, physical, great hands, hasn't raped anyone or publicly hit a bong AFAIK.

The question is what's next?

The OL needs big help. One ILB's is awful.

We have no NFL RB.

And yet why do I start to obsess that the biggest other multiplier effect we could have might be a new pair of safeties if it is true the FO hates TJ?

CJ Mosely may be a great fit but I hear he has Mingo desease.

I'm thinking about signing vet OT and guards is doable. I'm thinking we can get a 3rd round RB of quality to pair with Lewis-Sproles.

But I'm thinking what it would be like to have a pair of fast safeties that can cover and some I've seen play saturdays this season.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby HoodooMan » Thu Dec 12, 2013 12:56 pm

Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby HoodooMan » Thu Dec 12, 2013 12:57 pm

jb wrote:And yet why do I start to obsess that the biggest other multiplier effect we could have might be a new pair of safeties if it is true the FO hates TJ?


Remember your weird Phil Savage/Gerard Warren beef?

x1,000,000 if these chuckleheads let Ward & Mack walk.
Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby HoodooMan » Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:06 pm

My Top 10 sermon is always the same: look back at history and recognize that in most years you're getting 2-3 legit stars out of the Top 10. Priorities #1 through #Very High Number should be to acquire one of those 2-3. Wrong, wrong, worst-possible place to be reaching for need. BPA, BPA, BPA that high. If that means Clowney or Barr, so be it. (I love Watkins, too, though. But smaller receivers can be tricky to project. I mean, I don't love him as much as I did Peter Warrick--you know?)

With the Indy pick, I don't love the positional value, but I don't hate it either: it looks like there might be a few decent RTs available there. My preference would be to take advantage--the way the smart teams do--if we can catch a prospect who's unexpectedly slid that far, but if that opportunity doesn't present itself, OT would make some sense, I suppose.

Rb ratings for this class have been schizo as a MF'er. I like Melvin Gordon, but it seems like CBS doesn't think he'll declare any longer. But how much are we going to rely on Dion Lewis to return to a featureish role? If "kind of," maybe we're looking for a power back complementary player like Hyde or the LSU guy. (Isaiah Crowell in the late, late rounds intrigues me, too.)

I'd love to add some DBs, but besides the round 1 guys, I don't know of anyone in particular that I'm interested in targeting. ILB, too.

QB = BORIS OR BUST : )
Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:36 pm

Mixing and matching thoughts because one affects the other, there are always free agent and UDFA RBs (or late round RBs) who make an impact. A guy like LeGarrette Blount is a free agent after this season. Probably no better example of power back. Arian Foster's always scary health issues probably mean Texans don't let Ben Tate walk but who knows.

I think with RB the goal is the same: be better next year than this year. That should NOT be difficult. Hell, they'd have been better hanging onto Bobby Rainey than Willis McGahee. Not sure who didn't see that was pretty obvious.

Now, is the RB lack of production RB-based or symptomatic of bigger issues on the OL? I don't know. I do know McGahee is painfully old and slow and even Obie and Fozzy look marginally better than McGahee do with the same OL.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby jb » Thu Dec 12, 2013 1:56 pm




Corrected.

New Browns nickname to replace the Dawgs?

Kottonmouth Kings
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby motherscratcher » Thu Dec 12, 2013 2:08 pm

Jeez, has Mitchell Schwartz really fallen so far (after a non catastrophic rookie campaign) that we are talking about going with another RT in the first?
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby jb » Thu Dec 12, 2013 3:04 pm

HoodooMan wrote:My Top 10 sermon is always the same: look back at history and recognize that in most years you're getting 2-3 legit stars out of the Top 10. Priorities #1 through #Very High Number should be to acquire one of those 2-3. Wrong, wrong, worst-possible place to be reaching for need. BPA, BPA, BPA that high. If that means Clowney or Barr, so be it. (I love Watkins, too, though. But smaller receivers can be tricky to project. I mean, I don't love him as much as I did Peter Warrick--you know?)

With the Indy pick, I don't love the positional value, but I don't hate it either: it looks like there might be a few decent RTs available there. My preference would be to take advantage--the way the smart teams do--if we can catch a prospect who's unexpectedly slid that far, but if that opportunity doesn't present itself, OT would make some sense, I suppose.

Rb ratings for this class have been schizo as a MF'er. I like Melvin Gordon, but it seems like CBS doesn't think he'll declare any longer. But how much are we going to rely on Dion Lewis to return to a featureish role? If "kind of," maybe we're looking for a power back complementary player like Hyde or the LSU guy. (Isaiah Crowell in the late, late rounds intrigues me, too.)

I'd love to add some DBs, but besides the round 1 guys, I don't know of anyone in particular that I'm interested in targeting. ILB, too.

QB = BORIS OR BUST : )


I hear & groc.

The draft board has a ways to go before it shakes down to where we might ascribe true BPA.

But Sammy is the shit at a huge impact position.

When we DO find that special dreamy someone to be the "franchise QB" (heh) , I know that putting him in a Gordon, Watkins, Cameron cockpit surrounded by a strong OL will position him to develop nicely.

Sooooo many good space back prospects out there I'm sure one will drop high third. Myself? I heart the PAC Whatever kids except for the Stanford guy. You Dub kid and the two at the AZ schools are all nice fits.

I'd still take Dri Archer on day 3 if there.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby jb » Thu Dec 12, 2013 3:11 pm

motherscratcher wrote:Jeez, has Mitchell Schwartz really fallen so far (after a non catastrophic rookie campaign) that we are talking about going with another RT in the first?



This season he can't hold the edge 1 on 1. Fatal. Some say he can compete for RG next year if he stays.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby HoodooMan » Thu Dec 12, 2013 3:29 pm

jb wrote:I heart the PAC Whatever kids except for the Stanford guy. You Dub kid and the two at the AZ schools are all nice fits.


I'm not a Sankey fan. Carey's aiiiight.
Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby jb » Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:37 pm

HoodooMan wrote:My Top 10 sermon is always the same: look back at history and recognize that in most years you're getting 2-3 legit stars out of the Top 10. Priorities #1 through #Very High Number should be to acquire one of those 2-3. Wrong, wrong, worst-possible place to be reaching for need. BPA, BPA, BPA that high. If that means Clowney or Barr, so be it. (I love Watkins, too, though. But smaller receivers can be tricky to project. I mean, I don't love him as much as I did Peter Warrick--you know?)

With the Indy pick, I don't love the positional value, but I don't hate it either: it looks like there might be a few decent RTs available there. My preference would be to take advantage--the way the smart teams do--if we can catch a prospect who's unexpectedly slid that far, but if that opportunity doesn't present itself, OT would make some sense, I suppose.

Rb ratings for this class have been schizo as a MF'er. I like Melvin Gordon, but it seems like CBS doesn't think he'll declare any longer. But how much are we going to rely on Dion Lewis to return to a featureish role? If "kind of," maybe we're looking for a power back complementary player like Hyde or the LSU guy. (Isaiah Crowell in the late, late rounds intrigues me, too.)

I'd love to add some DBs, but besides the round 1 guys, I don't know of anyone in particular that I'm interested in targeting. ILB, too.

QB = BORIS OR BUST : )



Man HooDoo, I'm at the church of the BPA, but another OLB type is a crowded pew.

Can't get my mind round it from opp cost given the position is 3 deep. We can let Sheard go but it doesn't help build. Or have your written off KeKe?
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby HoodooMan » Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:12 pm

You don't write off someone named Barkevious Mingo. You save your nickels and pennies and buy an authentic jersey. You write songs and you sing them. You cherish every moment you have together while it lasts.

(But as far as him as an actual player goes, it's not looking great.)

RE: OLB in the Top 5/10 again, I like sacks. I like pass rushers. There are 55 players in the NFL right now with more sacks than our most sackiest sacker. I am not fond of this.
Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby Hikohadon » Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:18 pm

HoodooMan wrote:There are 55 players in the NFL right now with more sacks than our most sackiest sacker.


I did not know this.

A single emoticon can't express my feelings about that information. I shall have to combine them.

::doh:: :lame: (x) :pb: :gah: :gah: :pb: (x) :lame: ::doh::
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby HoodooMan » Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:31 pm

I commend you on your symmetrical rage.

The frustrating part for me is that 1) pass rushers are kind of important and 2) kind of like DL & WRs in the early 00s, realistically, you know we've already invested so much that it'd take a new regime for us to go there again anytime soon. That is, unless fate demands that Mike Lombardi start with two 1st round LB busts in Cleveland again.

ETA: Mad Dog in a Meat Market came first back then. LB with an actual dog name came first this time. Could happen! (If we take a LB in the Top 5 and draft Paul Richardson in the 2nd round, I'll seriously laugh my ass off.)
Q: What is the best/craziest location you've ever gotten lucky A: Mens room. Death Valley. (Fire Marshall Bill, 08/13/10)

...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Dec 19, 2013 1:14 pm

Gil Brandt on NFL.com. Let the hating begin!!!

6. Cleveland Browns

I think the Browns are already pretty good. They have just four wins this season, but they have an excellent coaching staff and a lot of talented players like left tackle Joe Thomas, cornerback Joe Haden and defensive lineman Phil Taylor. With some QB help, they can be a factor next year.

This is a well run organization that has not just the brains, but the money ($40 million in cap space) and the ammunition with all of those draft picks. Who they end up taking with their first pick is difficult to project now because: 1) The Browns could trade up with a team like Houston or Oakland, and 2) we don't know yet which players will be there. Is it Bridgewater? It could very well be, but we don't know yet if he will declare for the draft.

Plan B for the Browns might be to trade back from this spot and take a quarterback like Derek Carr. A good example of this is what Buffalo did last season, when it traded back eight spots and took EJ Manuel and also received a second-round pick in the process.


http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200000 ... ter_nfl_cb
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby justmebd » Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:22 pm

As long as the Browns don't go with their usual draft plan: Shit the bed and fire the entire front office. I'm kind of over that sort of plan.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Fri Dec 20, 2013 1:13 pm

Ehh, Mingo hasn't been nearly as bad as the wailing and teeth gnashing has suggested. In his first season, with limited usage, he's gotten steadily better over the last few games. He'll bulk up some in the offseason, and with Sheard and Kruger and Groves in a rotation, i'm not worried about the defense in the same way im worried about the dumpster fire of an offense. (Especially the pass rush....if they could get occasional stops on 3rd down, this wouldn't even be a topic)

Browns have 4 enormous problems on the other side they need to address in FA and the draft: Can't run block, no reliable weapons besides Gordon/Cameron, can't run if they could block, and unreliable QB play.

The latter is obviously the most important, and I expect they will address it if they don't have to sell the farm to do it....depends on which underclassman come out. (Realistically if they don't want to have to trade up to do it, they have to lose out and hope that Bridgewater, Manziel, and Bortles all declare. Even if they don't like the options, having multiple available guys will drive down the cost to trade up for a pick they want)

If they don't like any of those dudes, you gotta address the other three needs. Shwartz has been better of late, but has been awful overall. Browns leave more help in at TE and RB than any other team in the game to help him and the garbage at RG. Mack probably is gone because of the price tag he'll command, so you're looking at needing to replace at least 2 guys on the line. (My guess is that Greco slides to center and they draft a new RT, signing a bigger Norv-ish hogmolly guard to slide into the LG spot and kicking Shwartz inside) Also wouldn't completely count out Gilkey or Faulk competing for one of the spots next year.

Sammy Watkins or Mike Evans would look fantastic with single coverage on the other side of Gordon, and I wouldn't be shocked to see them look at ASJ or Ebron to run 2 TE sets with Cameron, who hasn't proven he can stay healthy for a season. Need other reliable weapons on the field, and those guys look like the nastiest group. Agree with JB, Sammy has some pretty jaw dropping gifts. Can't fuck up that pick.

Can get a RB anywhere in the draft....and hoping to see a lot more of Baker, who looked shifty Sunday.

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Re: The real draft

Unread postby HoodooMan » Fri Dec 20, 2013 2:56 pm

Gradysmanldy wrote:(Especially the pass rush....if they could get occasional stops on 3rd down, this wouldn't even be a topic)


You don't see a relationship there?
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...doesn't mean we cannot call you a spade when you are one. (donnyunitas, 10/21/09)

Plus it's kinda personal for me... I have a lot of family and friends who are Ducks... (angrybeaver, 11/08/09)
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Fri Dec 20, 2013 8:30 pm

Gradysmanldy wrote: In his first season, with limited usage


/rant.

Seriously.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 5:37 pm

I know the Johnny Football love will be cranked up to 11, but I truly believe I'd take Clowney over anything else if it's there at 4.

Knucklehead factor considered.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby Hikohadon » Wed Jan 01, 2014 5:41 pm

peeker643 wrote:I know the Johnny Football love will be cranked up to 11, but I truly believe I'd take Clowney over anything else if it's there at 4.

Knucklehead factor considered.


I like Clowney a lot, but I'd personally still be disappointed if Mariota or Bridgewater are there at 4 and they pass on them. Shocker, I know.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 6:12 pm

Hikohadon wrote:
peeker643 wrote:I know the Johnny Football love will be cranked up to 11, but I truly believe I'd take Clowney over anything else if it's there at 4.

Knucklehead factor considered.


I like Clowney a lot, but I'd personally still be disappointed if Mariota or Bridgewater are there at 4 and they pass on them. Shocker, I know.


Is Mariota waffling on decision to go back? Thought he was pretty firmly going back.

I'd be ok with Bridgewater if he's there at 4, I guess.

Just think Clowney is a true difference maker with less doubts than Bridgewater or others.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby FUDU » Wed Jan 01, 2014 6:19 pm

Are Clowney's abilities at all impacted by our D being a 3-4 or 4-3, it would have to right? B/C sure as shit when we make these regime changes we seem to always switch up our defensive philosophy rendering some of our current talent/players less valuable or meh.

Frankly I think getting our hands on Clowney is a pipe dream strictly b/c his name is just to damn fitting for this organization.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 6:44 pm

FUDU wrote:Are Clowney's abilities at all impacted by our D being a 3-4 or 4-3, it would have to right? B/C sure as shit when we make these regime changes we seem to always switch up our defensive philosophy rendering some of our current talent/players less valuable or meh.

Frankly I think getting our hands on Clowney is a pipe dream strictly b/c his name is just to damn fitting for this organization.


I dunno. All I know is he's fast as Mingo and as strong as a freaking bull. He's explosive, strong, has a wide range of moves already, played really well against top level competition and is a freak.

Pretty sure he'd be pretty damn terrific as a 4-3 DE or even a 5-technique 3-4 guy with another 15-20lbs. Is he a 3-4 OLB if he's at 260lbs instead of 280? Like I said, I dunno. He's fast enough right now to play it though I haven't seen much of him playing in space.

Unlike some, I won't hold this season against him. He was the #1 high schooler in his recruiting class and he demands 2bl and 3pl teams even this season, one in which and NCAA hoops player would have been playing hoops while a football player had to make a shitty choice.

He'd just my guy if he was there at #4. But I don't think he will be.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Jan 01, 2014 9:55 pm

I know Bortles is all the rage right now, but I'm as interested to watch Petty as Bortles. Wonder why that kid doesn't get the same run as some other guys.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Thu Jan 02, 2014 4:44 pm

peeker643 wrote:I know Bortles is all the rage right now, but I'm as interested to watch Petty as Bortles. Wonder why that kid doesn't get the same run as some other guys.


I like Petty, but a) he's made it clear that he's coming back next year, despite being old as shit.

and b) he still probably needs to go back. Has some nice tools, and a lot of speed in a big body, but some of the throws he made last night were real head scratchers. I'd still like him as a late first/early second kind of pick though.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Jan 02, 2014 9:32 pm

Gradysmanldy wrote:
peeker643 wrote:I know Bortles is all the rage right now, but I'm as interested to watch Petty as Bortles. Wonder why that kid doesn't get the same run as some other guys.


I like Petty, but a) he's made it clear that he's coming back next year, despite being old as shit.

and b) he still probably needs to go back. Has some nice tools, and a lot of speed in a big body, but some of the throws he made last night were real head scratchers. I'd still like him as a late first/early second kind of pick though.


I posted that before watching them both play. And after seeing the game I'd agree with your post. But I'd also say I don't see a load of difference between them. Both big and good athletes, both with enough arm, both make those bucket throws really well. Both are intriguing. Neither is gotta have at 4. From a mechanics and footwork standpoint I think Petty is more sound but I'd agree Bortles is more a playmaker. That's just a laymans opinion though.
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Re: The real draft

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Fri Jan 03, 2014 9:46 am

Agreed with that, i'd take both interchangably.

I think a better question is how either compares with guys that have been first rounders the last few years....do they clearly have more potential than a Tannehill/Ponder/Dalton/Geno/Quinn/etc (basically, better than the reach first rounders) even if they don't seem to have an obvious Luck/RGIII upside? Basically, do these guys actually project to be able to hang with the late first rounders with correctable flaws (Like Big Ben, Rodgers, Flacco, etc) or are they just reaches?

I think they've ALL (Boyd, Carr, Bortles, Petty) got a similar upside and low floor, and can succeed as long as they go to a team that can sit them for a year and let them learn the game at a normal speed. Really feel like the Midget and Bridgewater are the only guys that SHOULD be starting day 1 next year, and the former is only so that he can learn some lessons the hard way.
Check me out at Dawgsbynature, where I write stuff, or @twitter as Josh Finney.
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