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Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

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Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby FUDU » Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:44 pm

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/9970317/using-team-metrics-select-college-football-playoff

The CDR scenario is rather surprising RE: the Buckeyes, but @ EOD we (the fans) will still be dealing with metrics that don't mesh or are not agreed upon in a consensus. So until we get to at least 8 even the playoffs that start next year will create plenty of controversial discussion.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby furls » Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:03 pm

I don't want to be the conspiracy theorist in the room, but it is starting to feel like there is a vast conspiracy in Bristol to keep OSU out of the BCS NCG. It is getting really hard to give them the BoD anymore. They are seriously trying to justify how Stanford's loss to Utah is not that big of a deal. This is the same network that gave OSU a ration of shit over only beating Buffalo by 20 (and SDSU by 35).

The narrative is getting tired.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby Hikohadon » Fri Nov 15, 2013 1:55 pm

furls wrote:I don't want to be the conspiracy theorist in the room, but it is starting to feel like there is a vast conspiracy in Bristol to keep OSU out of the BCS NCG. It is getting really hard to give them the BoD anymore. They are seriously trying to justify how Stanford's loss to Utah is not that big of a deal. This is the same network that gave OSU a ration of shit over only beating Buffalo by 20 (and SDSU by 35).

The narrative is getting tired.


Years ago I deduced that the cure to Bristol was to pretend it doesn't exist.

Much like the NBA, I've found I don't miss it one bit.

PS to FUDU - even if you go to an 8 team playoff, there will be controversy over who gets left out. But it is more manufactured controversy at that point, much as there is controversy over who gets left out of the NCAA tourney that lasts for about a day.

4 teams is definitely a step in the right direction, it's hard to see a scenario where an undefeated OSU gets left out of that.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby furls » Fri Nov 15, 2013 2:56 pm

I only watch live sporting events on ESPN. I stopped really watching in 2007, when I started connecting the dots between their coverage of sports and their television contracts. It creates a conflict of interests with ESPN as a "news" agency that they used to be just bad at managing, now I would say that they are not even trying to manage the conflicts.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby Hikohadon » Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:07 pm

furls wrote:I only watch live sporting events on ESPN. I stopped really watching in 2007, when I started connecting the dots between their coverage of sports and their television contracts. It creates a conflict of interests with ESPN as a "news" agency that they used to be just bad at managing, now I would say that they are not even trying to manage the conflicts.


Definitely not.

It doesn't take much to see the patterns. ESPN televising The Decision runs right into the way they cover LeBron and the Heat - they should just change their name to the ESPN Heat of Miami. Like the NFL, they feel they're big enough that they can do whatever they want without consequence because the general public will not seriously consider the alternatives.

I know a lot of consumers that have told ESPN to fuck themselves and only watch the live telecasts, but casual sports fans still watch it since it's the first outlet that springs to mind and find a bar/restaurant in the US that doesn't have it on 24/7.

I'd go out of my way to watch the fledgling alternatives (NBC Sports station, Fox Sports1), but from what I've seen those stations just emulate ESPN, which is a recipe for extinction since no one's gonna switch off of ESPN for ESPN Lite.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Nov 15, 2013 4:07 pm

Hikohadon wrote:
furls wrote:I don't want to be the conspiracy theorist in the room, but it is starting to feel like there is a vast conspiracy in Bristol to keep OSU out of the BCS NCG. It is getting really hard to give them the BoD anymore. They are seriously trying to justify how Stanford's loss to Utah is not that big of a deal. This is the same network that gave OSU a ration of shit over only beating Buffalo by 20 (and SDSU by 35).

The narrative is getting tired.


Years ago I deduced that the cure to Bristol was to pretend it doesn't exist.

Much like the NBA, I've found I don't miss it one bit.

PS to FUDU - even if you go to an 8 team playoff, there will be controversy over who gets left out. But it is more manufactured controversy at that point, much as there is controversy over who gets left out of the NCAA tourney that lasts for about a day.

4 teams is definitely a step in the right direction, it's hard to see a scenario where an undefeated OSU gets left out of that.


A lot of people think 16 is the magic number, more inclusive, ideal situation. I disagree, I think 8 is ideal, b/c frankly when do teams at 10 or higher have an argument they got hosed for a shot at a NCG? Once every 25 years maybe? IMO there is a very noticeable difference between a team at 8 and a team at 14 or 15 in most cases.

Either way some subjective metrics will be used to determine those 8.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby Hikohadon » Fri Nov 15, 2013 5:30 pm

8 is more than fine. If you are poor number 9, fuck you.

Clemson and Missouri are 8 & 9 right now. Neither of those teams is sniffing the title game in an 8 team playoff.

I had my way Divison 1 would consist of 8 conferences and that's it. You win your conference, you go to the playoffs. No controversy, period.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby googleeph2 » Fri Nov 15, 2013 5:50 pm

Hikohadon wrote:I had my way Divison 1 would consist of 8 conferences and that's it. You win your conference, you go to the playoffs. No controversy, period.


I have agreed with this for a long time. Or rather, the 4 super conference thing. Each conf. can have its own divisions and playoffs if they want. How they get to their champion is up to them. 4 team nat'l playoff after that. 2 weeks.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby bac5665 » Fri Nov 15, 2013 6:11 pm

googleeph2 wrote:
Hikohadon wrote:I had my way Divison 1 would consist of 8 conferences and that's it. You win your conference, you go to the playoffs. No controversy, period.


I have agreed with this for a long time. Or rather, the 4 super conference thing. Each conf. can have its own divisions and playoffs if they want. How they get to their champion is up to them. 4 team nat'l playoff after that. 2 weeks.


Gods yes. Been wanting that for years.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby danwismar » Sat Nov 16, 2013 12:52 am

If you haven't seen this New York Times article, it will help you hate ESPN a little bit more.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/27/sport ... nsive.html
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby furls » Sat Nov 16, 2013 10:46 am

ESPN's trajectory will match those of most monopolies...

1. Innovation. Create a market that people never knew they needed. In this case sports. Because of the lack of competitors in the space the rights are cheap.

2. Develop the Market. This is usually the most exciting period where benefit for the consumer is highest. Think late 80's early 90's ESPN. It was a great product then.

3. Control the Market. Push out the competitors, build barriers to entry (preventing new competitors). ESPN does this contractually which is well detailed by the article Dan linked.

4. Bleed the consumers. Again, well established in Dan's article.

5. Draw the ire of the government for anti competition measures. Again listed in Dan's article.

6. Become complacent and damage your own product. Currently in progress. ESPN's short-sighted stance which only promotes big market baseball, hurts the overall league by adversely affecting revenues elsewhere, decreasing market interest in other places. You see similar treatment in the NBA as well. Their current practice of promoting the SEC over all other conferences as the only football that matters is leading to a new phenomenon affecting ratings called SEC Fatigue. The great draw to NCAAF is the hypothetical, when ESPN dismisses the hypothetical it hurts its own SEC product.

7. Open space for competitors. Complacency in 6 leads to opportunity in 7.

We are clearly somewhere around 6 and 7. There is a growing backlash to ESPN, and many tune in out of habit, as some of ESPN's contractual barriers to entry go away (new contracts are purchased by FS1 or other competitors) ESPN's hold becomes loser and folks realize there are opportunity. ESPN's competitors just have to be better, willing to endure losses, and patient. FS1 is a real competitor at this point due to Murdock's visionary nature and deep pockets.

They don't have to buy all the sports contracts from ESPN to compete, they just have to buy enough to get people to their channels regularly enough to learn about their non-sports programming. FS1's programming is sexy, but they are screwing up their on air personalities a little. For instance, they are recreating a "Hannity and Combs" (with Travis and George) environment in the NCAAF pregame show (like ESPN) and that is a mistake. ESPN is clearly displaying that the constant "trolling of fanbases" approach is alienating viewers. I know many Buckeye fans that are watching a clearly inferior product of a pregame show on the BTN because they are just tired of the B1G trolling on ESPN.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby FUDU » Sat Nov 16, 2013 1:06 pm

Not sure what ESPN has to do with the future metrics that will be used to decide on rankings which will impact the playoff format, did I miss something? I don't think ESPN came up with these metrics, like CDR.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby furls » Sat Nov 16, 2013 1:11 pm

I was more commenting on the article, and the narrative than the metrics.
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Re: Interesting look at breaking down future metrics

Unread postby FUDU » Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:46 pm

furls wrote:I was more commenting on the article, and the narrative than the metrics.


OK, I wasn't sure if you were under the impression they had something do to with those metrics.
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