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LSU v. Bama

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LSU v. Bama

Unread postby FUDU » Sat Nov 09, 2013 10:14 am

One thing that is interesting in this series recently, and a bit surprising (as I forgot about it until today) is how dominant the road teams have been in this series.

I don't think that holds true today, I think Bama edges them out, single digit victory.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby furls » Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:14 am

I too like 'Bama. Too many things have to go right for LSU to win. That said, GEAUX TIGERS. I originally listed this game as a 75% likely 'Bama win in my predictive model, meaning I think Bama wins 3 times out of 4. I actually think LSU has a bit more of a chance than that, but at this point it is hard to separate my hopes/emotions from my real analysis.

The 12 point spread (LSU +12) seems way too high. When that is the case I generally assume that the smart money is smarter than I am. Often #1 teams, particularly with fan bases that are larger than their opponents create betting lines that preferrential to the underdog because the "dumb homer money" moves in. I am sure Piper can chime in on this more than I, but this line feels like it should be about 7.5-10 points. Dumb money will move a line a couple of points, but I still feel like the line is too high. Therefore that means that a lot of smart money is on 'Bama... therefore, I would probably take 'Bama and even with the points.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby furls » Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:34 am

Mettenberger has to play REALLY well today.

Here are some interesting things to consider this week and most of them lead me to believe the Tigers have a decent shot:

-The only Good defense 'Bama played this year was VaTech and VaTech held 'Bama to 206 yards of offense. Don't let the 35-10 score fool you, 21 of those points came off returns (PR, KR, Pick 6). That said, teams get better as the season goes on.

-LSU's defense is good, but statistically not as good as VaTech. VaTech is #3 in Total D, LSU is #23 (250 yards to 350 yards per game), but LSU's O is significantly better than VaTech.

-LSU's Offense is #22 nationally in total offense. Alabama is pretty close at 34, both teams are very balanced offensively, but LSU is a little more reliant on the pass.

Statistically, these teams match up very similarly. I do have some doubts on the validity of 'Bama's numbers based on the relative strength of the opponents, but I don't think they would be much worse against LSU schedule. LSU SoS = 12, Bama = 35.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby furls » Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:59 am

FWIW: OSU is #10 in total defense and #8 in total offense.

Of the team's ranked above OSU I am not sure that any have taken their foot off the gas earlier as consistently as OSU. I'd love to see a quarter by quarter breakdown of play calling (runs vs. pass) compared to the team's mean 1st half playcalling mix.

My general sense is that OSU is very balanced (50:50) in the first half, but very run heavy in the second half due to lopsided scores. Even some of the scores that weren't as lopsided still featured very conservative second half play calling (Wisco and NW come to mind).
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:08 pm

Hell, Cardale Jones played the entire 4th quarter vs Purpoo without really attempting a pass.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby jb » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:19 pm

Hold that tiger! Hold that Tiger! Blah blah blah blah...

Pornstache gonna ball!

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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby Larvell Blanks » Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:55 pm

LSU's secondary has been the big weakness this year. Too many blown coverages( see Georgia game). Sagan will gameplan accordingly.

Although I can't count out Miles pulling off one of his upsets that he seems to pull off once a season.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby FUDU » Sat Nov 09, 2013 9:35 pm

What's with teams I root for and #44 fumbling once they reach the goal line, Christ.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby YahooFanChicago » Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:19 am

Alabama looks amazing in the 2nd half.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby furls » Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:34 pm

I gotta say there is a physicality displayed by 'Bama in the second half that I don't think I have seen by any other team this year.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby Fire Marshall Bill 2.0 » Sun Nov 10, 2013 1:41 pm

Stretch run for Bama... they're just now getting in sync

JMHO of course

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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby danwismar » Sun Nov 10, 2013 1:55 pm

No doubt Bama was very impressive...almost mistake free...wearing down the opponent. Best pair of RB's I've seen as a 1-2 punch in a while.

McCarron was very sharp after getting off to a slow start on his first few throws. I think they would beat FSU by double digits.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby FUDU » Sun Nov 10, 2013 2:09 pm

After last night's game, and looking at FSU's schedule, things look to be lining up as a rather significant advantage for Bama RE FSU. The back end of Bama's schedule has some tests while FSU's is more in line with getting fat and soft so to speak (and I'm including the Gators, they are meh). I think FSU is very solid but I'm still struggling to see their schedule as some sort of test.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby furls » Sun Nov 10, 2013 4:31 pm

I think FSU's balance is a bit problematic for 'Bama, but that said LSU has good balance. FSU's perimeter players are not nearly as good as LSU's, but Mettenberger is nowhere near as good Winston... but who knows if the moment will be too big for the freshman.

I am obviously conflicted, but I think Saban (given 6-8 weeks to gameplan) can shut em down. I think OSU is actually a much more problematic match up for 'Bama's D than FSU. I am not sure I have seen a D yet though that can match 'Bama's physicality on offense. They were impressive in the second half particularly.
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Re: LSU v. Bama

Unread postby jb » Sun Nov 10, 2013 11:58 pm

Roll Tide. so apt.
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