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Playoff Atmosphere

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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:32 pm

peeker643 wrote:What's that do to Pleskoff's boy, Chisenhall? Just a platoon guy while he smooths out issues?


It'll be interesting to see how they approach Chisenhall. His lefty splits in the minors are as follows:

2013: .200/.254/.385/.638
2012: .230/.253/.368/.621
2011: .224/.285/.456/.741
2010: .234/.320/.383/.703
2009: .241/.337/.424/.761

Decent pop against southpaws. But those averages and OBPs facing Double and Triple-A pitching are ugly. No reason to believe that'll change at this level. But, he's always hit righties and has a little bit of pop against lefties that prevents him from being completely useless.

I feel like he's supposed to get it, like Bernie said, but I see his ceiling as a platoon player, and 3B platoons aren't exactly commonplace. Plus, he's a minus defender. How much does he have to produce offensively to outhit the frying pan on his hand?

Issue with a guy like Ramirez, or somebody similar, is that he's a one-year stopgap and we aren't rich with minor league 3B. Chisenhall's an important piece of this puzzle, and he only has one season worth of plate appearances, but his holes are very clear.

I'm pretty hard on him. Maybe I should relax my stance. But there's not much about him that screams everyday 3B.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:41 pm

peeker643 wrote:Unforgiveable that you guys don't toss Josh Tomlin into the picture. He's got a new ligament and is set and ready.

Fools. ;-) ;) :wink:


It’s hard to tell when, exactly, Tomlin’s ulnar collateral ligament troubles flared up, resulting in Tommy John surgery in September 2012. Tomlin began his career by going 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA over the rest of 2010. His first half of 2011 was outstanding. Tomlin went 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA and even got some All-Star Game buzz. He posted better than a 4.6/1 strikeout-to-walk rate and a 1.02 WHIP.

Just going by the results, it would seem that Tomlin’s elbow may have taken a turn for the worse in June of 2011. Tomlin was 6-2 with a 2.74 ERA over his first 10 starts. The rest of the season, Tomlin was 6-5 with a 5.24 ERA. Interestingly, Tomlin didn’t show the usual signs of injury, which are a drop in velocity and a drop in control. He walked 11 batters in 99.2 innings from June through the end of the season. Something didn’t seem right, however, as Tomlin’s command sagged. He made just eight starts after the All-Star Break as he spent September shut down.

Nothing went right for Tomlin in 2012. He missed time due to a wrist injury sustained while trying to grip a wet ball during a May doubleheader against the White Sox that saw the nightcap played in a veritable downpour. In his 21 starts, opponents slugged .518 against him, with 18 homers allowed in just 102.1 innings. Tomlin’s control sagged and his walks went up as his strikeouts went down. In Tomlin’s final two starts of the season, August 5 and August 12, Tomlin threw just 35.9 percent and 30.8 percent of his pitches in the strike zone. For a guy who had exhibited tremendous control throughout his career, that was a sign that he had reached his breaking point with the elbow.


There's reason to believe that Tomlin could be a viable #5 starter. Remember that #5 starters are generally below league average in damn near every pitching statistic. I think you could do a lot worse. Now, if they re-sign Kazmir, your rotation is Masterson-Kluber-Salazar-Kazmir-McAllister/Tomlin/Carrasco/Bauer, which isn't great, but it's not awful either. Look at the advanced metrics and Kluber's one of the most underrated pitchers in the game.

I wouldn't be entirely opposed to Tomlin as a fifth starter, but there's probably no upside in that. It's not like he'll suddenly surprise people and post a 3.75, but he's viable, if nothing else. If you want to spend money in other areas, you've got a group of contenders for the back of the rotation.

In a way, Salazar's almost a free agent acquisition. He's a definite upgrade to Myers, McAllister, and Carrasco. He should make the rotation better. Masterson came around. Kluber is developing into a strong middle of the rotation guy. If you can keep one of Kazmir/Jimenez, I wouldn't put a ton of faith in them, but they're certainly better than replacement-level.

It's not a spectacular rotation and it doesn't rival Detroit's, but it's more than serviceable IMO.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:49 pm

Oh, and lost in the shuffle of yesterday, the Indians claimed Tyler Cloyd from the Phillies.

Decent minor league numbers: http://www.baseball-reference.com/minor ... oyd-001tyl

Not so much in the bigs: http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... ty01.shtml

Just adding another arm. Maybe they feel like he's got some value. Citizens Bank Park is one of the best hitter's parks in MLB, so he could do a bit better here. I don't know.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:57 pm

Well, one thing to keep in mind when you look at the offseason is that Swisher, Bourn and Cabrera earn $14million more in 2014 than they did in 2013.

Kazmir likely to cost another $6-$7mm per year, Santana goes up about $3million, etc.

I mean, that's damn near $25million more. And guys that fall off don't account for anything close to that. So, like I said, I wouldn't be looking for too many big ticket items under the tree this offseason.

Another reason why I just wouldn't be surprised to see Lindor get pushed.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:59 pm

Is Perez free-agent eligible or arbitration eligible?
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:04 pm

peeker643 wrote:Is Perez free-agent eligible or arbitration eligible?


Never mind. Found it.

Arb eligible one more time.

FAs are Ubaldo, Kazmir, Hill, Albers and Joe Smith (and Giambi). That's a good chunk of your pen in flux again too.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:05 pm

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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby gotribe31 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:11 pm

pup wrote:
gotribe31 wrote:
pup wrote:Here is what I am afraid happens.

Ubaldo and Kazmir leave.

We sign shitty pitcher A and B to replace, then tell the fans don't worry we will fix these shitty guys like we fixed those shitty guys.

Casual fans aren't going to hear that. They are going to hear, "good guys leave, cheap front office replaces them with stiffs".

It is going to be interesting, that is for sure. They have a tough job since filling the holes on offensive isn't realistic without some big trades. So the impression that the pitching staff is going to take a step backwards will be enough for the casual fan to doubt them going forward.


If U and Kaz both leave, the rotation projects something like this:
Masty
Salazar
Kluber
McAllister
Carrasco/Bauer/Random reclimation project

That should still be both recognizable and solid, no? And if they can resign one of them, they have a 5-man rotation with some depth. I haven't given up on Bauer yet, despite the complete and total disaster his 2013 season turned in to.


Ya know...not sure how to put this. Recognizeable? Yes. Solid? Maybe.

Improved? Frick no. Not even close. And even if replacing Ubaldo with Carrasco/Bauer/Random reclimation project was to work...casual fan isn't buying it until they see it. To me, Kluber/McCallister need to be battling in ST for the 5th spot for casual fan base to remain energized. Otherwise, you get slightly better attendence in 2014 than you got in 2013 with the hope that early returns drive it up slightly higher throughout the season. Especially if you aren't going to improve the lineup...which pretty much isn't happening.

Me? I trade Asdrubal for something better than Z-Mac and start Lindor day 1. One of the things this lineup needs more than anything else is less swinging and missing. Going from Asdrubal to Lindor is a start. Snag a 3B with a high contact rate from somewhere and hold off on another OF until you of those kids is ready.

Keep the bullpen as in tact as you can. Perez being 50/50. If he is not back, you need to get something in return that is viable.


Agreed on all counts. I'm just afraid that we won't get much in the way of offers for Asdrubal.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:12 pm

peeker643 wrote:Is Perez free-agent eligible or arbitration eligible?


3rd year arb.

They may non-tender him.

Can't see Lindor getting pushed. 91 plate appearances at the Double-A level. Probably starts again in Akron.

Doesn't the new MLB TV revenue agreement and/or his Fox Sports money kick in this year? That'll give Paul Dolan some extra money to work with, but you're right with raises and whatnot that there's not a lot of money to go around. That's why he waited until the second year on those contracts to the 2013 FAs for the bigger money. Don't forget the raises to Raburn and Aviles as well. That's 2.5 more. Stubbs 2nd year arb, curious to see what he gets and if they keep him.

You can see the plan here, though. The rotation might cost 18-20M (8 + 8 + ~1.5) if they keep Kazmir. Kluber, Salazar, McAllister, Carrasco, Bauer, Tomlin, etc. all around league minimum. The position players cost all the money. No commitments to pitchers at sizable contracts, unless Masterson gets an extension.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:18 pm

Re: the pen, closer is the huge concern. There's not a closer on the roster, potentially even if you keep Perez. Pestano coming back should fill Smith's role, if healthy. Rzepczynski/Hagadone as your LOOGYs. Shaw, Allen, CC Lee. Don't think you can trust Allen in the closer's role and Shaw's splits terrify me, although, as I've said recently, he was much better against LHB over the second half of the season.

I don't think the pen is in that bad of shape. Shaw was a big surprise for me. Allen was great. CC Lee has flashes and could get by for a couple months based on unfamiliarity until he learns how to pitch at the MLB level.

Keep Pestano away from the WBC and I think he'll be fine. Not sure if he'd say it or not, but that really derailed his entire season.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:24 pm

skatingtripods wrote:I don't think the pen is in that bad of shape.


Not necessarily in 'bad shape'. But certainly the definition of 'flux'.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:40 pm

peeker643 wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:I don't think the pen is in that bad of shape.


Not necessarily in 'bad shape'. But certainly the definition of 'flux'.


Sure. You could say that. Bullpens are volatile by nature, so who knows how it'll actually look come April or May, but I think our middle/setup relief is good. Need a 5th/6th inning bridge and a closer.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:41 pm

pup wrote:Here is what I am afraid happens.

Ubaldo and Kazmir leave.

We sign shitty pitcher A and B to replace, then tell the fans don't worry we will fix these shitty guys like we fixed those shitty guys.

Casual fans aren't going to hear that. They are going to hear, "good guys leave, cheap front office replaces them with stiffs".

It is going to be interesting, that is for sure. They have a tough job since filling the holes on offensive isn't realistic without some big trades. So the impression that the pitching staff is going to take a step backwards will be enough for the casual fan to doubt them going forward.


Absolutely true.

The catch-22 is that listening worrying about the casual fan's thoughts and winning are mutually exclusive.

F the casual fan. They didn't show up this year till 163. That front office HAS to do what they think will bring wins. It's become pretty clear you better be REALLY good, and REALLY win if you want fans to come down there. Placation will get them nowhere.

As you say, it will be interesting.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby 7foot3 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:59 pm

leadpipe wrote:The catch-22 is that listening worrying about the casual fan's thoughts and winning are mutually exclusive.

F the casual fan. They didn't show up this year till 163. That front office HAS to do what they think will bring wins. It's become pretty clear you better be REALLY good, and REALLY win if you want fans to come down there. Placation will get them nowhere.


Nail on the head.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! » Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:58 am

skatingtripods wrote:Re: the pen, closer is the huge concern. There's not a closer on the roster, potentially even if you keep Perez. Pestano coming back should fill Smith's role, if healthy. Rzepczynski/Hagadone as your LOOGYs. Shaw, Allen, CC Lee. Don't think you can trust Allen in the closer's role and Shaw's splits terrify me, although, as I've said recently, he was much better against LHB over the second half of the season.

I don't think the pen is in that bad of shape. Shaw was a big surprise for me. Allen was great. CC Lee has flashes and could get by for a couple months based on unfamiliarity until he learns how to pitch at the MLB level.

Keep Pestano away from the WBC and I think he'll be fine. Not sure if he'd say it or not, but that really derailed his entire season.


You don't think Allen can be our closer eventually? He put up some pretty darn good numbers this year, 11.26K/9, 2.99FIP (against both lefties and righties), average fastball of 95.3. And everything I've read as far as scouting reports have him pegged as a potential future closer.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Oct 04, 2013 10:25 am

YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! wrote:You don't think Allen can be our closer eventually?


Eventually, maybe. Entering 2014? No, I personally don't think so, and that's what I meant. I mentioned shutdowns and meltdowns in a thread about Chris Perez. A shutdown is improving your team's win expectancy by 6% or more, a meltdown is decreasing your team's win expectancy by 6% or more, and appearances that don't enhance or decrease the win expectancy by at least 6% aren't tracked. In Allen's 77 appearances, he had 19 shutdowns, 16 meltdowns, and 42 appearances that were so low leverage that they didn't swing the needle much this season. He had 31 high leverage appearances, 39 medium leverage, and 49 low leverage. When you're a closer, almost every appearance is high leverage. His splits showed that he was the most hittable in the high leverage situations (.246/.314/.426/.741). Not a criticism, just a fact, and it makes sense, since Allen is just 24 years old and is still learning how to attack hitters at this level.

He misses bats and had a 3.38 K/BB ratio, which are both good things towards becoming a closer. If Smith isn't re-signed and Pestano doesn't bounce back, you get a great opportunity to see how Allen does in the 8th inning, a role where the "save situation" can be in that inning. Hell, he may even close if they don't want to spend money on one. In that case, I hope I'm wrong about him.

He wore down at the end of this season, too. His strikeout numbers dropped in the second half and his command started to drop off. His line drive rate climbed along with his walk rate. Still posted good traditional numbers, but the rigors of his first full season in The Show got to him. It was a good learning experience for him and he should be better next season because of it.

None of these are criticisms of Allen. I really like his upside. He has a tremendous arm, a plus breaking ball, and good control. I just don't think he's developed enough, mentally and stuff-wise, to be a closer just yet. But, down the road, I could see him taking the role and having success.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! » Fri Oct 04, 2013 10:32 am

skatingtripods wrote:
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! wrote:You don't think Allen can be our closer eventually?


Eventually, maybe. Entering 2014? No, I personally don't think so, and that's what I meant. I mentioned shutdowns and meltdowns in a thread about Chris Perez. A shutdown is improving your team's win expectancy by 6% or more, a meltdown is decreasing your team's win expectancy by 6% or more, and appearances that don't enhance or decrease the win expectancy by at least 6% aren't tracked. In Allen's 77 appearances, he had 19 shutdowns, 16 meltdowns, and 42 appearances that were so low leverage that they didn't swing the needle much this season. He had 31 high leverage appearances, 39 medium leverage, and 49 low leverage. When you're a closer, almost every appearance is high leverage. His splits showed that he was the most hittable in the high leverage situations (.246/.314/.426/.741). Not a criticism, just a fact, and it makes sense, since Allen is just 24 years old and is still learning how to attack hitters at this level.

He misses bats and had a 3.38 K/BB ratio, which are both good things towards becoming a closer. If Smith isn't re-signed and Pestano doesn't bounce back, you get a great opportunity to see how Allen does in the 8th inning, a role where the "save situation" can be in that inning. Hell, he may even close if they don't want to spend money on one. In that case, I hope I'm wrong about him.

He wore down at the end of this season, too. His strikeout numbers dropped in the second half and his command started to drop off. His line drive rate climbed along with his walk rate. Still posted good traditional numbers, but the rigors of his first full season in The Show got to him. It was a good learning experience for him and he should be better next season because of it.

None of these are criticisms of Allen. I really like his upside. He has a tremendous arm, a plus breaking ball, and good control. I just don't think he's developed enough, mentally and stuff-wise, to be a closer just yet. But, down the road, I could see him taking the role and having success.


Good post, I definitely thought you meant you wouldn't ever see him in the role. Yeah, I think I'd have to agree with you that it would be tough going into 2014 with his inexperience. I really love the kid though and think he's going to be a darn good arm out of the bullpen next year and a future closer.

I really don't want to rush Lindor, but at the same time I can't wait to see him with the big club. The insane upgrade at defense we're going to see with him at short over Cabrera is going to make it all worth it, regardless of how he hits.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Oct 04, 2013 10:53 am

Lindor's a + MLB defender if he steps on the field today.

I'd be fine with it. And yeah, I know, <100ABs in AA (where he actually posted the highest OPS of his minor league career).

But if he's mentally capable of handling it, I'm doing it in July and trading what I hope to be a rebounding AsCab. I have Aviles as my blankie shoould I need it.

He'll be 20 in a month. I'd be fine giving him 200 more ABs in Akron and bringing him here. I'd be fine if he's Elvis Andrus.

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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:00 am

YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! wrote:Good post, I definitely thought you meant you wouldn't ever see him in the role. Yeah, I think I'd have to agree with you that it would be tough going into 2014 with his inexperience. I really love the kid though and think he's going to be a darn good arm out of the bullpen next year and a future closer.


I like him a lot, and, frankly, he saved the bullpen this season. With Pestano going down, that 7th inning was a gigantic question with Smith moving to the 8th. And Allen did a strong job there, despite the small gap between shutdowns and meltdowns. It doesn't tell the whole story.

I really don't want to rush Lindor, but at the same time I can't wait to see him with the big club. The insane upgrade at defense we're going to see with him at short over Cabrera is going to make it all worth it, regardless of how he hits.


This is Andrelton Simmons of the Braves.

Simmons: .248/.296/.396, 4.7 WAR
Cabrera: .242/.299/.402, 0.6 WAR

Simmons hit 17 HR in the bigs this season. He had 6 in 1,042 MiLB plate appearances. Lindor has 8 in 1,051 MiLB plate appearances. If Lindor could hit 10-12 HR at some point, that'd be a nice bonus.

I don't know if Lindor is the caliber of fielder that Simmons is, but if Lindor could manage a .700 OPS and play great defense, he could probably be a 3-3.5 win player, which is what Cabrera is in his best season.

Problem is I don't think Lindor isn't ready. 91 Double-A plate appearances isn't enough. Not to mention, he'll only be 20 in a month. Simmons just turned 24, though he only had 204 plate appearances in Double-A before jumping in 2012.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:48 am

skatingtripods wrote:
YouCanPutItOnTheBoardYES! wrote:Good post, I definitely thought you meant you wouldn't ever see him in the role. Yeah, I think I'd have to agree with you that it would be tough going into 2014 with his inexperience. I really love the kid though and think he's going to be a darn good arm out of the bullpen next year and a future closer.


I like him a lot, and, frankly, he saved the bullpen this season. With Pestano going down, that 7th inning was a gigantic question with Smith moving to the 8th. And Allen did a strong job there, despite the small gap between shutdowns and meltdowns. It doesn't tell the whole story.

I really don't want to rush Lindor, but at the same time I can't wait to see him with the big club. The insane upgrade at defense we're going to see with him at short over Cabrera is going to make it all worth it, regardless of how he hits.


This is Andrelton Simmons of the Braves.

Simmons: .248/.296/.396, 4.7 WAR
Cabrera: .242/.299/.402, 0.6 WAR

Simmons hit 17 HR in the bigs this season. He had 6 in 1,042 MiLB plate appearances. Lindor has 8 in 1,051 MiLB plate appearances. If Lindor could hit 10-12 HR at some point, that'd be a nice bonus.

I don't know if Lindor is the caliber of fielder that Simmons is, but if Lindor could manage a .700 OPS and play great defense, he could probably be a 3-3.5 win player, which is what Cabrera is in his best season.

Problem is I don't think Lindor isn't ready. 91 Double-A plate appearances isn't enough. Not to mention, he'll only be 20 in a month. Simmons just turned 24, though he only had 204 plate appearances in Double-A before jumping in 2012.


I don't think he'll be quite the defender Simmons is (41 DRS is just nuts), but he's going to be stellar defensively. I agree that he is not ready, I just can't wait to see what he can do in the bigs.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby motherscratcher » Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:51 am

When you look at the cost of doing business, with the player raises that are coming and the money that will need to be shelled to sign Kazmir or Ubaldo, you start looking for places to cut cost and upgrade. And the obvious cost cut is at SS, where I believe Cabrera is in line to make around $10m next year. I hate to sell low, but if shedding that $10m helps fill a hole elsewhere then I'm OK with that.

Problem is I don't see an obvious replacement. The list of available SS who will be FA is either a giant pile of meh, or a guy like Drew or Furcal who won't be signing for one year and will end up costing as much as or more than Cabrera to begin with.

I'm with Tripods that I don't think Lindor is ready yet, due to experience and also service time issues (and don't tell me that it shouldn't be considered).

IDK, maybe Aviles can fill SS until June before a Lindor arrival, but the best option is just to stick with Cabrera. I don't see a better option.
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Oct 04, 2013 12:14 pm

motherscratcher wrote:When you look at the cost of doing business, with the player raises that are coming and the money that will need to be shelled to sign Kazmir or Ubaldo, you start looking for places to cut cost and upgrade. And the obvious cost cut is at SS, where I believe Cabrera is in line to make around $10m next year. I hate to sell low, but if shedding that $10m helps fill a hole elsewhere then I'm OK with that.


Working on my article for tomorrow now.

Here's about what I've got financially:

Guaranteed contracts: $49.283M according to Cot's

Arbitration eligible: Masterson (8-9M), Brantley (2.5-3M), Pestano (1-1.25M? injured, but has track record), Rzepczynski (1.75M), Stubbs (3.25M? made 2.825M last year and rare to see players not get any kind of raise in arb), Tomlin/Carrasco/Wood/Marson (~2M because I don't think Wood is tendered, Marson questionable, and Tomlin/Carrasco not much worth adding to)

So, with arbitration eligibles, that's between 18.5-20 in contracts? Rough estimate. And that's without Perez, who would probably get 8-9 after 7.3 last season.

That already puts us in the 70M range.

League minimum (500k): Kipnis (509k last year, so maybe more like 600 or 650), Gomes, Salazar, Chisenhall, Allen, Hagadone, Kluber, McAllister, and Shaw. So, let's ballpark that around 5M.

That's 75M without our expiring contracts (Jimenez, Kazmir, Smith, Hill, Albers, Giambi). A little more than 5M under our 2013 payroll.

How high will Paul Dolan be willing to go? Sign Kazmir, you're probably up near $85M, with the same 3B/RF hole you've always had and without a closer. Sign Perez, you're at 85M with a questionable rotation again. Sign both Kazmir and Perez and you're nearing 95M and you have to assume that's the absolute ceiling for Dolan.

A lot of tough financial decisions coming down the pike. Don't offer Perez a contract and trade Asdrubal and you save yourself 18M+ between Cabrera's 10 and Perez's 8-9 in arbitration. Can Aviles carry the gig for a couple of months? Will Lindor be ready in June or July? Who closes?

Very interesting offseason. You can't sit around and do nothing like the 2007 offseason. But how much can you do?
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
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skatingtripods
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Re: Playoff Atmosphere

Unread postby justmebd » Sun Oct 06, 2013 8:25 pm

You can't do what they did between 2007-12.

Other than that, Captain Obvious will just sit back and observe.
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