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Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

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Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby furls » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:05 pm

Dan's article this week was a nice wrap and it got me thinking... is winning enough for OSU this year?

I know that there has only been one year that an undefeated from a major conference has been left out (Arbarn 2004) and it is unikely that there is a mass of undefeated teams piled up at year end, that said, I think this could be the year we see at least one defeated left out.

Here is my take:

-An undefeated or even one loss UGA or 'Bama team is in. The odds that this occurs? I would say about 100%. 'Bama only has one real test left (even though it plays in God's chosen conference) on November 9th when it hosts LSU. You can already hear the media making the case for a one loss UGA team right now should they win the SEC.

-Oregon or Stanford will go to the NCG if undefeated. The road is a bit more difficult for these guys as it appears that the PAC 12 is actually pretty deep this year. Oregon has to go to U. Wash and Stanford, but hosts a suddenly decent UCLA team. Stanford's road is a little better as they host all three of those teams. I think it is still pretty likely one of those two ends the year undefeated, but it is no gimmie. I say about 50:50 that the Oregon/Stanford winner is undefeated.

-Clemson and FSU is not quite as clear to me. If Clemson wins out they are in ahead of OSU. If FSU wins out, will the 'Noles, currently ranked 8, jump up enough to pass OSU? I think the computers will love them with wins over Maryland, Clemson, Florida and Miami; I think the press will love them because Jameis Winston is a bad ass, but will they be able to jump an OSU team that is 24-0 in the human polls? I tend to doubt it, but it would not surprise me particularly if OSU is not winning big. I actually think FSU will beat Clemson at Tallahassee, so this is one of those cases where I think it will take care of itself.

-Louisville: They still have "big" games left at home with UCF and Rutgers, but I think they win both. There is no way Louisville jumps Ohio State with that awful schedule, so I think we can ignore them even though I think they are going to go undefeated.

-Oklahoma or Oklahoma St: They play each other therefore one of them has to lose. The winner still has to play a pretty decent Baylor team. I really have no idea how good any of the B12 is, but I don't think the winner there jumps OSU either.

In short, I think it is inevitable that their is an SEC team in the NCG. The other spot will go to the following, in this order:

1. An undefeated PAC 12 Champ (Oregon or Stanford)
2. An undefeated ACC champ (FSU or Clemson)
3. Ohio State

OSU may be able to hold off Stanford or FSU, but in order to do so style points WILL matter. Unfortunately, after this week there aren't many style points on OSU's schedule remaining because no one cares if you beat Purdue or Indiana by 1,000.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby danwismar » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:23 pm

The better Georgia continues to look, the better Clemson's win over them will appear. I agree with you that an unbeaten Clemson would be the sexy pick for the title game.

You can almost sense the desire for an OSU loss in the national media. It's one thing that worries me about this Saturday...because (if we can separate ourselves from the bigger picture) how freakin' cool would it be for the game of college football if the Northwestern Wildcats could pull off a home field upset of the undefeated #3 team in the country, especially after their three close losses a year ago. Everybody loves Fitzgerald (including me) and it would be a statement game to end all statement games for their much maligned program if they could win it.

All that said...I hope the officials don't get swept up in the upset frenzy and screw the Buckeyes over somehow. For the record, I think OSU wins it by 10 or more, but the stage is set for something bizarre to happen.

But I digressed there....

Oklahoma State lost Saturday to WVU, so they're one less unbeaten to worry about. The Sooners get Texas and TCU at home, but travel to Baylor. They always seem to stumble somewhere.

The PAC-12 is stronger this year, so an unbeaten coming out of there is no sure thing, although Oregon looks formidable so far.

I don't disagree with your final pecking order at all. Style points needed for UFM.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:23 pm

It certainly didn't help OSU that Cal had to play at Oregon in a hurricane and their passing offense was completely unusable.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:24 pm

Yes.

It would be 2 years without a loss.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby FUDU » Tue Oct 01, 2013 4:27 pm

I actually think a one loss Bama team is vulnerable to being left out this year. I'm not saying it is likely, frankly I don't see it happening, but they aren't looking like the Bama from a few years ago. I think human polls could get them if the timing of the loss isn't just right.

One loss Oregon no IMO, I think they are kind of in the same light as our Buckeyes.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby bac5665 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:07 pm

The SEC could be left out of the NCG this year. I'm not saying it's likely, but it is possible. Georgia wins the conference and Bucks, Clemson and Oregon go undefeated? I think it could be Oregon and the Bucks.

I don't know that it is likely at all, but it is at least possible.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:16 pm

Now way in HELL the Bucks get in over an undefeated Clemson team with withs against Georgia, USCjr, and FSU.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby furls » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:20 pm

I gotta feeling that FSU beats Clemson at home. I am just not a believer in Clemson... yet.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby bac5665 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:31 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Now way in HELL the Bucks get in over an undefeated Clemson team with withs against Georgia, USCjr, and FSU.


If OSU travels better than Clemson (and I guess I don't know much about Clemson's alumni, but I assume we do) than OSU has a chance.

The BCS is about money and OSU makes a lot of people rich.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:38 pm

Clemson is pretty good.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 5:51 pm

bac5665 wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:Now way in HELL the Bucks get in over an undefeated Clemson team with withs against Georgia, USCjr, and FSU.


If OSU travels better than Clemson (and I guess I don't know much about Clemson's alumni, but I assume we do) than OSU has a chance.

The BCS is about money and OSU makes a lot of people rich.


? uhm.... no.

OSU will be in a BCS bowl and they'll get their money regardless, not to mention that I doubt the BCS is going to buy off the coaches and Harris pole voters to put OSU at #1 which is what they would need to overcome what is going to be a bloodbath from the comps due to the shit schedule.

The money factor only comes into play with At-larges.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby YahooFanChicago » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:41 pm

Actually Clemson has a very big alumni following and lots of support - - google their alumni association "IPTAY". They may be rednecks but they support their team.

I personally believe that they won't get past USCsr since they play them on the road in Columbia and since the "head ball coach" seems to have them figured out-- I don't think USCsr has lost to Clemson in about 5 years.

The undefeated team log jams always seem to have a way of working themselves out in early to mid November.

How many of you are "sold" on tOSU being a special team deserving of playing in the NCG? :hide: At this point I think we are good but not great or special. Maybe that will change but at this point I think our #4 rating is about right.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:41 am

Of course it depends. There always seems to be one weekend where the rankings go topsy-turvey late in the season. So really, who the hell knows?

If things hold and make sense, I think the pollsters and schedule would prove that if Oreygun runs table they get one slot. Beating Stanford would be enough.

The ACC winner between FSU and Clemstrucky would be a real threat for second.

And then there is the anointed SEC. I think the SEC champ would need 3 losses to be ruled out. I really do.

So I'd put the Bucks changes at undefeated at about 4th. Between the schedule and Big 10 being awful it's probably fair.

IDK about any of you, but I don't WANT the OSU near a NCG this year yet. The stink of a butt kicking would hurt recruiting. Urbs has a good thing going. A 1 or no loss season this year and a BCS win or close game vs a good team and then make a run next season and then it can be re-load time..
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby motherscratcher » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:49 am

Agree with that JB, except the 2 loss SEC team getting in. If OSU Clemson, and Oregon are all undefeated I don't see how a 2 loss SEC gets past that.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby danwismar » Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:01 am

In reply to jb...I think the chances for OSU to "make a run" are much better this year than they are next year. That doesn't mean I think they are worthy of a title game spot this year. I remain unconvinced of that...(Top ten, but not top five is where I place them)

Just that when you graduate 80% of your offensive line, and lose 75% of your defensive secondary, plus your best linebacker and your leading receiver, it's going to be hard to make that run in 2014. In other words, this is their year, IMO, if it is to be soon.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:07 am

Seriously JB, how many other teams have you watched this year?

You have this huge fear centered around OSU's defense in a year that their literally is not one very good defense in the country. Fuck, Michigan State might have the best D going right now.

CFB is weak as fuck right now and besides Oregon looking as dominant as they have just about every year at this point in this season for the last seven no one else looks as good as they did even last year. Even UGA can't keep Gurly on the field long enough to scare anyone. That LSU D I was anxious to see blows, Bama has serious O-Line and D problems, etc.

CFB is very weak in general this year. Outside of a truly absurd QB class that is.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:17 am

Oh and I'm not saying OSU is elite today, but looking at the general poopoo platter out there this year I see no reason OSU can't mature over the course of the season and compete.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby Sea Foam Green » Wed Oct 02, 2013 1:13 pm

Pretty much agree with all that's said here, just a few additional thoughts to add

BCS is based partly on coaches poll. So far, the coaches poll has been loathe to re-arrange the pecking order based on strength of schedule. They're currently 3rd. If they continue to win, and either of those above lose. They'll gain ground.

On the other hand, the computers will hate them. [Sidenote here: It kills me that Wisconson's screw job [that was hilarious] could actually affect the Buckeyes by way of computer rankings and OOC wins/loses]

So I think the opinion of the Harris poll will be huge to where the Buckeyes stand.

Lastly, I wouldn't underestimate Urban. If you recall in 2006 it wasn't a sure thing for UF to make the NCG. Gators were a 1 loss team in an underrated conference. He saw it coming and began to lobby well before the SEC championship game. I think it made a difference, and I think he'd do the same again.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:04 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Seriously JB, how many other teams have you watched this year?



All of them.

I have watched every single BCS game played. I have lots of VHS tapes.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:07 pm

Feh you probably only watch ND games and don't even watch OSU.

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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:15 pm

danwismar wrote:In reply to jb...I think the chances for OSU to "make a run" are much better this year than they are next year. That doesn't mean I think they are worthy of a title game spot this year. I remain unconvinced of that...(Top ten, but not top five is where I place them)

Just that when you graduate 80% of your offensive line, and lose 75% of your defensive secondary, plus your best linebacker and your leading receiver, it's going to be hard to make that run in 2014. In other words, this is their year, IMO, if it is to be soon.



In Meyer I trust.

Gonna build this into a machine.

25% of that D secondary is + via -.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:22 pm

Next year's OL is terrifying.

Like holy fuck WTF, Fuck you Jim Bollman terrifying.

They HAVE to get the JUCO LT they are chasing. No ifs ands or buts.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:26 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Next year's OL is terrifying.

Like holy fuck WTF, Fuck you Jim Bollman terrifying.

They HAVE to get the JUCO LT they are chasing. No ifs ands or buts.


meh. Look how quickly Decker is developing.


Too bad they blew it with Byrne.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby FUDU » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:51 pm

Well JB ceratnly hasn't watched Bama this year. Plenty of teams could drop 35+ on them.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:53 pm

FUDU wrote:Well JB ceratnly hasn't watched Bama this year. Plenty of teams could drop 35+ on them.



And they'd drop 70 on us.

That's the issue.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby FUDU » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:54 pm

Not a chance.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Wed Oct 02, 2013 4:56 pm

FUDU wrote:Not a chance.



Yeah there is.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby FUDU » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:02 pm

Tell you what if it comes down to it we'll make it interesting.

Something like loser buys tix to the following Holy War, and 10 grand in cash?
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:04 pm

Why in the eff would you two asshats need to go see ND/Boston College?

I always knew JB was an ND fan.... knew it.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby FUDU » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:06 pm

Cute kid eh JB?
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:16 pm

FUDU wrote:Cute kid eh JB?



Highly intelligent. High calibur HS FB player. Wants to be urbane in every pore of his body.

His wet dream would have been to play for Kyle.

Instead he was wasted playing in front of some cows and trailers vs Miserable Ridge with a team with a collective IQ of 1000.

Issues.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:20 pm

Ahem, two Hopkins Grads, a UPenn grad, and a Dr. played on that team in my class alone.

We were many things, dumb wasn't one of them, especially when you consider that we had 11 players in my class.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby furls » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:05 am

I am working on a model to guesstimate the probabilities of teams finishing the year undefeated. The model is in excel and can be adapted as the season goes on, and it is all based on my guesses as to the likelihood that team A beats team B. In any case, I have OSU at about 50:50 (52.96%) to win out. The only school with a better shot to win out is 'Bama at 54.96%. This does NOT include a conference championship game.... too many variables to consider.

Interestingly, the next closest teams are aTm and UGA at about 40% because they only have 1 significant game left, LSU and Florida respectively.

If anyone wants a copy of my spreadsheet to mess with let me know, you can see the assumptions and adjust them to your own liking and see what you come up with.

FWIW, Oregon is in the mid 30's to finish undefeated because they still have some tough games. I have OSU as no worse than 1:5 in any remaining game.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby YahooFanChicago » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:02 am

Damn Furls...were you must be drunk as hell, bored as hell or both if you're putting spreadsheets together trying to predict perfect NCAA records for 2013.

I made the mistake of venturing over to RCF a couple of days ago and saw someone predicting a 19 game improvement in the Cavs record - - I think it also came from a spreadsheet...here is a copy/pasted version of their post:

____________________________________________________________________________________
Here is where I see 19 additional wins coming from this year--


•6 Wins - Coaching
•3 Wins - Varejao plays 65 games and takes up a lot of Zeller's minutes
•3 Wins - Irving improves + plays more games
•2 Wins - Jack & Clark over Ellington, Livingston & Gee
•2 Wins - Thompson's righty shooting works
•2 Wins - Bennett over Walton & Casspi
•1 Win - Prove me wrong Dion, but I'm not expecting a breakthrough
•0 Wins - Bynum for Speights is a wash, since I don't think Bynum will play very much


It could get worse if Irving and Varejao miss a lot of games, but it could be even better


____________________________________________________________________________________


FWIW, I agree that some of those things above will drive an improvement in our record, just kind of funny to try and assign wins for each item spreadsheet style. Also kind of funny to assign extra wins due to TT's "right hand shooting", 6 total additional wins because Andy and Kyrie will be healthy this year...etc.

The bullet point formatting is impressive though...maybe you could include some bullet points in your NCAA spreadsheet furls. ;-) ;) :wink:
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Thu Oct 03, 2013 8:36 am

e0y2e3 wrote:Ahem, two Hopkins Grads, a UPenn grad, and a Dr. played on that team in my class alone.

We were many things, dumb wasn't one of them, especially when you consider that we had 11 players in my class.



Probably a podiatrist ur passing off as a doctor.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby motherscratcher » Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:45 am

jb wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:Ahem, two Hopkins Grads, a UPenn grad, and a Dr. played on that team in my class alone.

We were many things, dumb wasn't one of them, especially when you consider that we had 11 players in my class.



Probably a podiatrist ur passing off as a doctor.


Preemptive fuck you to whoever makes the dentist joke.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Thu Oct 03, 2013 10:13 am

motherscratcher wrote:
jb wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:Ahem, two Hopkins Grads, a UPenn grad, and a Dr. played on that team in my class alone.

We were many things, dumb wasn't one of them, especially when you consider that we had 11 players in my class.



Probably a podiatrist ur passing off as a doctor.


Preemptive fuck you to whoever makes the dentist joke.


On an OSU board?

They'd have to be suicidal.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby FUDU » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:48 pm

motherscratcher wrote:
jb wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:Ahem, two Hopkins Grads, a UPenn grad, and a Dr. played on that team in my class alone.

We were many things, dumb wasn't one of them, especially when you consider that we had 11 players in my class.



Probably a podiatrist ur passing off as a doctor.


Preemptive fuck you to whoever makes the dentist joke.


Anymore it's just understood.

But your preemptive fuck you is duly noted.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby pup » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:13 pm

Yes
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby JCoz » Fri Oct 04, 2013 3:19 pm

I would say there is a decent shot the bucks could lose a beauty contest between undefeated teams. They can look can like dog shit in any given quarter or half, and this schedule is a joke.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby furls » Fri Oct 04, 2013 6:00 pm

They need to make this week, PSU week and scUM weeks count. No one will care at all about any other game.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby furls » Sun Oct 06, 2013 4:12 pm

Here are the updated probabilities of teams to win out based on my little model in order of likelihood to win out:

1. OSU (62.31%)
2. 'Bama (54.98%)
3. aTm (43.98%)
4. UGA (42.76%)
5. Oklahoma (39.48%)
6. Louisville (38.96%)
7. Oregon (33.14%)
8. FSU (26.24%)
9. Clemson (13.08%)
10. Stanford (9.22%)
11. LSU (6.48%)

-Stanford and Clemson are so low because I have Oregon and FSU beating them.
-None of the top ranked SEC teams play each other ('Bama, aTm, UGA) between now and the end of the season.
-I really don't expect any major shakeups until the week of the 19th where I have 4 of the teams as < 75% likely to win. Most notably Clemson and FSU.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby YahooFanChicago » Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:27 am

Too many undefeated teams same thing as too much pitching...never lasts for long.

I still think this sorts itself out in November. Rivalry games + pressure + conference championship games will dramatically thin the ranks. I'm not so sure if that's a good thing or bad thing for us--not too excited to play a NCG against Oregon or Alabama based on the defense we've seen from the Buckeyes so far this year.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Mon Oct 07, 2013 10:47 am

furls wrote:Here are the updated probabilities of teams to win out based on my little model in order of likelihood to win out:

1. OSU (62.31%)
2. 'Bama (54.98%)
3. aTm (43.98%)
4. UGA (42.76%)
5. Oklahoma (39.48%)
6. Louisville (38.96%)
7. Oregon (33.14%)
8. FSU (26.24%)
9. Clemson (13.08%)
10. Stanford (9.22%)
11. LSU (6.48%)

-Stanford and Clemson are so low because I have Oregon and FSU beating them.
-None of the top ranked SEC teams play each other ('Bama, aTm, UGA) between now and the end of the season.
-I really don't expect any major shakeups until the week of the 19th where I have 4 of the teams as < 75% likely to win. Most notably Clemson and FSU.



Buckeyes are jive.

6 of those teams win in a walk, 7 if UGA were healthy.

For the purposes of recruiting its important we avoid embarrassment. Stanford may be the best hope. They win but maybe only in a 10-14 range.

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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Mon Oct 07, 2013 2:32 pm

You're like the Big Lu of this forum.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby furls » Mon Oct 07, 2013 7:10 pm

Hard to disagree that there are some teams on that list that would win. Whether or not 6 would win in a walk, that is debatable. There are certainly 3-4 I would not want to face. I don't think Stanford wins. Their style of play is actually OSU's best hope to win a game.

If there is one offense that I think this team could defend, it is a pro-set O that is predicated on the run. The DL does a good job at the LOS and stop the run is the one thing Curtis Grant can do at MLB.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby jb » Tue Oct 08, 2013 10:11 am

furls wrote:Hard to disagree that there are some teams on that list that would win. Whether or not 6 would win in a walk, that is debatable. There are certainly 3-4 I would not want to face. I don't think Stanford wins. Their style of play is actually OSU's best hope to win a game.

If there is one offense that I think this team could defend, it is a pro-set O that is predicated on the run. The DL does a good job at the LOS and stop the run is the one thing Curtis Grant can do at MLB.



My thinking exactly and that's why I made the Cardinal Indians reference.

Given I expect Oregon to play in the NCG an OSU/Stanford RB would seem likely.

A win = good.

A reasonable loss = not damaging.

Getting housed by an ACC or SEC team could mean recruiting issues.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:38 am

Good thing the SEC isn't very good this year and I'm still not sure what the ACC teams are.

It's like you didn't watch Virginia Tech run at will against Bama.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby FUDU » Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:49 am

I don't think he's watched a lick of NW either.
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Re: Does an undefeated OSU team make the NCG?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Oct 08, 2013 11:53 am

NW did beat an SEC team in a bowl last year!

And I'll wait to see how Oregon plays against a very meh Stanford team before I go ahead and hand them the BCS title.
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