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Week 5: Who you got?

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Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:18 am

100 NW -28.5 100 -110
100 Sparty Moneyline +185 -100
100 Purdue +23 100 -110
200 Standord -6.5 200
300 aTm -28 300
100 UConn +19.5 100
100 Indian +3 -110

So, I am up 1015 total YTD after last weeks disappointing week where I was down 50. I only missed winning all 5 and having a huge week by the thinnest of marings, Louisville failed to cover by .5 and 'Bama missed by 1 after a late TD. I won my other 3 making me 10-6 against the number YTD.

I like several games this week but I don't love any, I bet this is one of those weeks where I am up or down somewhere around 100-200.


Last week was not a good week: I got greedy going after he SPARTY Moneyline instead of taking the points. NW inexplicably struggled with Maine, bad news for me, good news for the Buckeyes! I guess Purdue is as bad as I thought they were before they beat Cincy, and I guess I was on the IU hype train too early too. I really thought they were a bowl team this year. I guess they are now just an automatic cover on Overs.

In spite of my struggles, going 3-3 (13-9 YTD), I did put my hypothetical money in the right places leaving me up $70.00 for the week after splitting my games and covering the juice. Putting me up 1085 for the year. I feel a lot better about today's games, and I think there is some $$$ to be made out there.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:33 am

Betting against scUM continues to be the easiest money out there....

This week I am taking "the Bye Week" +6 over scUM. I have a feeling that the UConn game finally exposed them, so I doubt that we will see a great line for the Minnesota game next week, but who knows, I think the Gophers are an improved team. scUM will have had 2 weeks to get their shit right, so I will actually probably stay away.

I love LSU straight up this week.

-LSU Moneyline +155 for $300.00. I DO NOT BELIEVE IN GA (or USCe for that matter).

-ND is garbage. Give me $200.00 on OK -4

-Bama -14 looks like some easy Money! 200 there please. The only reason the line is only 14 is because ESPN is trying to convince the universe that the entire SEC is good. Ole' Miss has some nice young players, but they aren't going to be able to hang with a team that put up about 40 unanswered on aTm.

-Ohio State. Give me the last $300.00 on OSU -6.5. Less than a TD because the talking heads have everyone thinking about Wisco's backs, not OSU's balanced offense. Wisco will score some points, probably enough to make the over an interesting parlay, but it isn't going to be enough. I am going to stay away from the over because I think Wisco puts a lot of effort into slowing the game down.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby pod2dawg » Sat Sep 28, 2013 9:06 am

Furls I really like ^^^^ picks.

I have been "hot" lately and on the Pro's......Steelers will dismantle Vikes. N.E. wins in Atlanta. And I hope I am wrong but......Bengals cover.

Steelers are the "steam."
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 10:21 am

Wow, Bucks only up 6.5 points? Christ, if my accounts were still open I would throw money at that.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby dmiles » Sat Sep 28, 2013 12:24 pm

As far as a decent noontime out of conference game, UCF just marched down the field on Carolina. Blake Bortles looking sharp. Probably the biggest game in the history of this place. As I've mentioned I live right off campus in Oviedo, and often drive through the campus to get to the research park. I need to look and see if they sold this thing out. If they can't sell out the South Carolina game, it ain't happening.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Sat Sep 28, 2013 12:37 pm

Can a player who quit on his team really go in the top three in the NFL draft? Because Clowney has straight quit.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Sat Sep 28, 2013 12:45 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Wow, Bucks only up 6.5 points? Christ, if my accounts were still open I would throw money at that.


If it wasn't chargeable under Article 133 (Conduct Unbecoming of an Officer) of the Uniformed Code of Military Justice, I would be all over it too. I cannot stress enough that I am NOT actually betting on these games. I am just kind of challenging myself here by seeing how I would do if I were to bet 1K every week.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Sat Sep 28, 2013 12:47 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Can a player who quit on his team really go in the top three in the NFL draft? Because Clowney has straight quit.


Clowney has literally gone from #1 on my draft board (and it wasn't really close) to being a guy that I seriously would not draft.... period. Guys who take this many plays off in college don't suddenly start trying in the NFL. He has bust written all over him.

FWIW, I would take Spence, Washington or Bosa over him in a heartbeat now (for a pro or college team).
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Sun Sep 29, 2013 12:05 am

So I finished up 400. Could have been huge if LSU could've held out in the 4th. All in all, 3-1 ATS is pretty good. So is being up 1485 YTD.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby jb » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:42 am

furls wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:Can a player who quit on his team really go in the top three in the NFL draft? Because Clowney has straight quit.


Clowney has literally gone from #1 on my draft board (and it wasn't really close) to being a guy that I seriously would not draft.... period. Guys who take this many plays off in college don't suddenly start trying in the NFL. He has bust written all over him.

FWIW, I would take Spence, Washington or Bosa over him in a heartbeat now (for a pro or college team).


As a pro? Wow. just wow.

All I got is "OH!".

And maybe trade this year's and next up for AJ hawk.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Tue Oct 01, 2013 1:24 pm

I should've been more specific on that one....

Clowney certainly has more pro potential than the Buckeyes DL, as a college player today, I prefer OSU's DL.

Clowney doesn't even pretend to try anymore. I still wouldn't draft him, not in the 1st round, not in the 7th round.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 1:25 pm

Clowny and Roby, quitters.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby jb » Tue Oct 01, 2013 2:45 pm

furls wrote:I should've been more specific on that one....

Clowney certainly has more pro potential than the Buckeyes DL, as a college player today, I prefer OSU's DL.

Clowney doesn't even pretend to try anymore. I still wouldn't draft him, not in the 1st round, not in the 7th round.



Yep, he's mailing it in playing not to get hurt. bad player for the cocks now.

I'd still draft that kid in round one and not look back. He's got more talent in is pinkey nail than Spencer has in his body.

Don't be surprised if he is Derelle Revis tho.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Oct 01, 2013 2:51 pm

Have you guys watched a single game with Clowney this season? He's either double teamed and held every play or the play is run to the other side of the field. Pretty hard to make an impact when you have no chance to. Rest of the SC DL has been incredibly disappointing, so the focus remains entirely on Clowney.

No, he's not going balls out to improve his draft stock. But, it's not like he's had many chances to make plays. He's nearly missed the QB several times and has forced several early throws.

Just because the counting numbers aren't there doesn't mean he's not affecting the game.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 2:56 pm

Clowney was literally destroying triple teams last year.

Now as soon as he's doubled he's taking out a lawn chair and posting up in the middle of the field. Not to mention his pursuit is terrible.

This is a kid who openly considered not even playing this year, he has no interest in college ball. Just like how Urban said Roby had buyer's remorse about coming back.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:01 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Clowney was literally destroying triple teams last year.

Now as soon as he's doubled he's taking out a lawn chair and posting up in the middle of the field. Not to mention his pursuit is terrible.

This is a kid who openly considered not even playing this year, he has no interest in college ball. Just like how Urban said Roby had buyer's remorse about coming back.


His conditioning has certainly been an issue, and it annoys me that the SC coaches keep making up excuses for him. Last week he had the flu was on IV fluids. Another week he had his foot stepped on in practice.

Teams have changed their gameplans this season. It's limited his ability to make plays.

I'm not saying he's been great or a consensus #1, but now that he's under a microscope, he's getting a lot of undeserved flack just because he's not racking up sacks and TFLs.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:04 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Have you guys watched a single game with Clowney this season? He's either double teamed and held every play or the play is run to the other side of the field. Pretty hard to make an impact when you have no chance to. Rest of the SC DL has been incredibly disappointing, so the focus remains entirely on Clowney.

No, he's not going balls out to improve his draft stock. But, it's not like he's had many chances to make plays. He's nearly missed the QB several times and has forced several early throws.
Just because the counting numbers aren't there doesn't mean he's not affecting the game.


I have watched a ton of USCe this year, and I disagree that he has been double/triple teamed. Most I have seen done to him is a chip at the LOS by the TE or an RB picks him up on his way back. I was actually stunned by how many guys have been having success blocking him 1:1 in obvious passing downs.

I will give you that a lot of running plays are going away from him, but he literally quits the second the ball goes the other way.

Clowney has all kinds of athletic skills, my man love for him has been evident on this board since his JR year in HS when I declared him the #1 pick in the 2014 draft. I have since come around to the conclusion that guys that quit, don't suddenly starting trying when you make them millionaires. Like I said, I would not draft him.

As for Clowney having more talent than "Spencer" (I am sure you probably meant Spence) in his little finger, I wouldn't be so sure. Spence is likely to be a 1st round pick too, additionally, I haven't seen him display a propensity to quit on plays.

Clowney Stats thus far: 2 sacks and 12 tackles.
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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:10 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:Clowney was literally destroying triple teams last year.

Now as soon as he's doubled he's taking out a lawn chair and posting up in the middle of the field. Not to mention his pursuit is terrible.

This is a kid who openly considered not even playing this year, he has no interest in college ball. Just like how Urban said Roby had buyer's remorse about coming back.


His conditioning has certainly been an issue, and it annoys me that the SC coaches keep making up excuses for him. Last week he had the flu was on IV fluids. Another week he had his foot stepped on in practice.

Teams have changed their gameplans this season. It's limited his ability to make plays.

I'm not saying he's been great or a consensus #1, but now that he's under a microscope, he's getting a lot of undeserved flack just because he's not racking up sacks and TFLs.



Most of the flack he has received has been for his obvious lack of effort, and there is no disputing that. Like I said, I am not just looking at USCe's stats and making a decision. I have watched 3 USCe games this year in their entirity: UCF, UNC and UGA and I have been thoroughly unimpressed with his effort.

When he gets to the NFL and has to put that kind of effort into an offseason conditioning program to compete against better players, I don't think he suddenly will. He will go exactly as far as his natural talent takes him; he is the "anti-John Simon." I cannot think of many NCAAF DEs with a poor work ethic who suddenly came in and started dominating NFL OT's with natural ability alone in the last 20 years. Coming into your pre-draft season in poor physical condition? That is a huge red flag.
Coming from a Wolverine, we're the football equivalent of a formerly abused wife of a meth addict who just remarried the safe nice guy. We're just glad we have someone who's aware that it's a rivalry and that tackling on defense is integral. Baby steps.

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Re: Week 5: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Sat Oct 05, 2013 8:38 am

Deleted and moved to new thread.
Coming from a Wolverine, we're the football equivalent of a formerly abused wife of a meth addict who just remarried the safe nice guy. We're just glad we have someone who's aware that it's a rivalry and that tackling on defense is integral. Baby steps.

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