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09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big W

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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby mattvan1 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 3:18 pm

Larvell Blanks wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
Other moments are great, Manny's "WOW" walk-off against Eckersley, the 14-2 comeback, Belle hitting 50, Santana's walk-off, the June 1, 2007 walk-off, and others, but with context factored in, this one just might be the best regular season moment.




This was always a favorite of mine as far as walk offs



DAMN could that man hit


He was so fooled by that pitch - hits it with mostly arms off his front foot as his entire torso is sliding forward and his back foot almost comes off the ground - and still crushes it 425+. Amazing
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby peeker643 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:06 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Danny Salazar ‏@DannySalazar67 9m
What you guys did to CP last night, that wasn't nice, every body is gonna have good and bad games, and that one wasn't his best

Danny Salazar ‏@DannySalazar67 8m
But he is the guy we trust to give the ball and finish the game!


Be great if Danny Salazar also tweets out his thoughts on the US Military build-up in Indo-China prior to the Viet Nam War as well as his thoughts on the global economic crisis.

You know, two more things I don't give a fuck about what he thinks.

Very touching though. Now go get some fucking outs tonight, Ghandi.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:11 pm

I just thought it was amusing how he said "That wasn't nice".

Not an endorsement of what he said.

Though I do have a Chris Perez stat of great interest if anybody gives a shit....and I'm guessing that they don't.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby pup » Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:21 pm

skatingtripods wrote:I just thought it was amusing how he said "That wasn't nice".

Not an endorsement of what he said.

Though I do have a Chris Perez stat of great interest if anybody gives a shit....and I'm guessing that they don't.


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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby cappy1920 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:23 pm

mattvan1 wrote:
Larvell Blanks wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
Other moments are great, Manny's "WOW" walk-off against Eckersley, the 14-2 comeback, Belle hitting 50, Santana's walk-off, the June 1, 2007 walk-off, and others, but with context factored in, this one just might be the best regular season moment.




This was always a favorite of mine as far as walk offs



DAMN could that man hit


He was so fooled by that pitch - hits it with mostly arms off his front foot as his entire torso is sliding forward and his back foot almost comes off the ground - and still crushes it 425+. Amazing



Great to hear Herb Score's voice again, RIP.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby Larvell Blanks » Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:35 pm

pup wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:I just thought it was amusing how he said "That wasn't nice".

Not an endorsement of what he said.

Though I do have a Chris Perez stat of great interest if anybody gives a shit....and I'm guessing that they don't.


Raising hand


consider me interested
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Sep 25, 2013 4:44 pm

pup wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:I just thought it was amusing how he said "That wasn't nice".

Not an endorsement of what he said.

Though I do have a Chris Perez stat of great interest if anybody gives a shit....and I'm guessing that they don't.


Raising hand


Just remember that you asked for it.

Fangraphs has an alternative to the traditional save/blown save called Shutdowns and Meltdowns. The concept is derived from Win Probability Added, or WPA. WPA is exactly what it sounds like: How much does a player's contribution help the team win or lose?

WPA is done in decimals, so, 0.06 = 6% increase to win probability. Jason Kipnis's 7th inning single upped the Indians win probability from 57.3% to 77.2%, so Kipnis would get .199 WPA for that.

According to Fangraphs, a relief pitcher gets a Shutdown when he increases the team's WPA by 0.06, or, increases the Win Expectancy Percentage by 6% during his appearance. A pitcher gets a Meltdown when he has a negative WPA of -0.06, or decreases the team's Win Expectancy Percentage by 6%.

Since 2010, among 211 qualified relievers, Chris Perez has the most shutdowns at 133. He's T-53rd in meltdowns with 32.

Yesterday, entering the 9th, the Indians had an 84.1% Win Expectancy Percentage. When Perez left the game, it was 17.7%, so Perez had a WPA of -.664 because he lowered the team's Win Expectancy by 66.4%.

By season for Perez:
2010: 34 shutdowns, 7 meltdowns
2011: 37 SD, 10 MD
2012: 34 SD, 7 MD
2013: 28 SD, 8 MD

Appearances that don't add/subtract 6% or more aren't tracked.

FWIW, rest of team:

Smith: 27 SD, 9 MD
Shaw: 23 SD, 11 MD
Allen: 19 SD, 16 MD
Hill: 15 SD, 9 MD
Albers: 8 SD, 6 MD
Pestano: 8 SD, 6 MD

This is also a way of tracking leverage appearances, since WPA is correlated to leverage.

Perez's 28 SD are T-29th in MLB. Greg Holland leads with 40 SD, 4 MD. Perez was T-8th in 2012 (Pestano was 4th, BTW), T-6th in 2011, T-11th in 2010.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby cappy1920 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 5:00 pm

Very interesting. Thanks Tripods. This suggests that Perez is the best relief pitcher on the Indians. The only caveat is that Perez enters the game with no one on base and the meltdowns are his own doing. The others may enter the game with runners on base and may have a helping hand in their meltdowns.

skatingtripods wrote:
pup wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:I just thought it was amusing how he said "That wasn't nice".

Not an endorsement of what he said.

Though I do have a Chris Perez stat of great interest if anybody gives a shit....and I'm guessing that they don't.


Raising hand


Just remember that you asked for it.

Fangraphs has an alternative to the traditional save/blown save called Shutdowns and Meltdowns. The concept is derived from Win Probability Added, or WPA. WPA is exactly what it sounds like: How much does a player's contribution help the team win or lose?

WPA is done in decimals, so, 0.06 = 6% increase to win probability. Jason Kipnis's 7th inning single upped the Indians win probability from 57.3% to 77.2%, so Kipnis would get .199 WPA for that.

According to Fangraphs, a relief pitcher gets a Shutdown when he increases the team's WPA by 0.06, or, increases the Win Expectancy Percentage by 6% during his appearance. A pitcher gets a Meltdown when he has a negative WPA of -0.06, or decreases the team's Win Expectancy Percentage by 6%.

Since 2010, among 211 qualified relievers, Chris Perez has the most shutdowns at 133. He's T-53rd in meltdowns with 32.

Yesterday, entering the 9th, the Indians had an 84.1% Win Expectancy Percentage. When Perez left the game, it was 17.7%, so Perez had a WPA of -.664 because he lowered the team's Win Expectancy by 66.4%.

By season for Perez:
2010: 34 shutdowns, 7 meltdowns
2011: 37 SD, 10 MD
2012: 34 SD, 7 MD
2013: 28 SD, 8 MD

Appearances that don't add/subtract 6% or more aren't tracked.

FWIW, rest of team:

Smith: 27 SD, 9 MD
Shaw: 23 SD, 11 MD
Allen: 19 SD, 16 MD
Hill: 15 SD, 9 MD
Albers: 8 SD, 6 MD
Pestano: 8 SD, 6 MD

This is also a way of tracking leverage appearances, since WPA is correlated to leverage.

Perez's 28 SD are T-29th in MLB. Greg Holland leads with 40 SD, 4 MD. Perez was T-8th in 2012 (Pestano was 4th, BTW), T-6th in 2011, T-11th in 2010.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Sep 25, 2013 6:52 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
pup wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:I just thought it was amusing how he said "That wasn't nice".

Not an endorsement of what he said.

Though I do have a Chris Perez stat of great interest if anybody gives a shit....and I'm guessing that they don't.


Raising hand


Just remember that you asked for it.

Fangraphs has an alternative to the traditional save/blown save called Shutdowns and Meltdowns. The concept is derived from Win Probability Added, or WPA. WPA is exactly what it sounds like: How much does a player's contribution help the team win or lose?

WPA is done in decimals, so, 0.06 = 6% increase to win probability. Jason Kipnis's 7th inning single upped the Indians win probability from 57.3% to 77.2%, so Kipnis would get .199 WPA for that.

According to Fangraphs, a relief pitcher gets a Shutdown when he increases the team's WPA by 0.06, or, increases the Win Expectancy Percentage by 6% during his appearance. A pitcher gets a Meltdown when he has a negative WPA of -0.06, or decreases the team's Win Expectancy Percentage by 6%.

Since 2010, among 211 qualified relievers, Chris Perez has the most shutdowns at 133. He's T-53rd in meltdowns with 32.

Yesterday, entering the 9th, the Indians had an 84.1% Win Expectancy Percentage. When Perez left the game, it was 17.7%, so Perez had a WPA of -.664 because he lowered the team's Win Expectancy by 66.4%.

By season for Perez:
2010: 34 shutdowns, 7 meltdowns
2011: 37 SD, 10 MD
2012: 34 SD, 7 MD
2013: 28 SD, 8 MD

Appearances that don't add/subtract 6% or more aren't tracked.

FWIW, rest of team:

Smith: 27 SD, 9 MD
Shaw: 23 SD, 11 MD
Allen: 19 SD, 16 MD
Hill: 15 SD, 9 MD
Albers: 8 SD, 6 MD
Pestano: 8 SD, 6 MD

This is also a way of tracking leverage appearances, since WPA is correlated to leverage.

Perez's 28 SD are T-29th in MLB. Greg Holland leads with 40 SD, 4 MD. Perez was T-8th in 2012 (Pestano was 4th, BTW), T-6th in 2011, T-11th in 2010.


My statistical analysis of Perez is pretty simple. I just calculate the number of bricks I shit when he enters the game.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby googleeph2 » Wed Sep 25, 2013 7:18 pm

By several definitions, Perez in the last 20 games has been AWFUL.
And when he melts, it's not a sudden surprise. everyone sees it coming.
Why should he be handled differently than, say, Pestano?
If nothing else, don't be afraid to take him out when he isn't on his game.
I'm reminded of '97, when we all saw Mesa's warning signs.

Completely different subject: do we have a name for the Giambi game yet?
There needs to be one.
How about the "Swing and a Drive" game. Kinda balances the original "Drive" game.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:40 am

Perez also has the third-highest average leverage index from 2010-13 of the 212 qualified relievers.

He may deserve flack for being abrasive and being an asshole in some people's opinions, but his performance is among the best in baseball as far as relievers go over the last four seasons.

They may not be the prettiest saves, but it's a results business and Perez's, for the most part, have been good.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Sep 26, 2013 2:43 am

skatingtripods wrote:Perez also has the third-highest average leverage index from 2010-13 of the 212 qualified relievers.

He may deserve flack for being abrasive and being an asshole in some people's opinions, but his performance is among the best in baseball as far as relievers go over the last four seasons.

They may not be the prettiest saves, but it's a results business and Perez's, for the most part, have been good.


Yeah he gets the job done. But I think what gets fans is how it's so easy to see early on that he is NOT about to get the job done. 14 year old girls can see "oh-oh" when he has his bad stuff.

Let him go...but keep a tight leash on the fucker. If he gets his FB but not his slider...ok. His slider but not his FB...ehh No on both...pull the damn plug EARLY.

/I swear he needs to warm up harder or earlier or something because it seems he always struggles to find the zone early in the appearance.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Sep 26, 2013 10:33 am

googleeph2 wrote:By several definitions, Perez in the last 20 games has been AWFUL.
And when he melts, it's not a sudden surprise. everyone sees it coming.
Why should he be handled differently than, say, Pestano?
If nothing else, don't be afraid to take him out when he isn't on his game.
I'm reminded of '97, when we all saw Mesa's warning signs.

Completely different subject: do we have a name for the Giambi game yet?
There needs to be one.
How about the "Swing and a Drive" game. Kinda balances the original "Drive" game.


You keep bringing up Pestano.

But Pestano was hurt. His velocity tumbled, he probably tried to mechanically make up for that and not only worsened the injury but worsened the results.

No such issue with Perez in terms of velocity and stuff since he's been back. If Perez locates he finishes wins. If Perez doesn't locate he gets beaten around.

That's just how it goes. Perez gives up fewer HRs per IP than Salazar does. And Salazar's issues ain't stuff either. His fastball moves, his splitter is nasty and his changeup is developing. But if he ain't locating that 98 he's getting it taken 440 feet to left center by some 22 yr old named Avisail Garcia.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby googleeph2 » Thu Sep 26, 2013 10:37 am

I have been wondering if Perez is still hurt from some time ago. Apparently not, though. I think his velocity is good.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 26, 2013 11:13 am

googleeph2 wrote:I have been wondering if Perez is still hurt from some time ago. Apparently not, though. I think his velocity is good.


This is his lowest season by Zone%, but his best season by first strike percentage (F-Strike%). Pretty interesting. Also lowest average velocity by season. It has since come back since the start of September after he sat in the 91-92.5 range most of the season. In September, it ranges from 91.9-94.4.

I don't think he's been fully healthy. Another Spring Training with an injury derailed his fastball velocity. Last season it was down until about June and then it sat consistently in the 93.5-95 range. This season, it came back, and then the shoulder went in Boston, and then it took him all of July and August to get it back.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Sep 26, 2013 11:33 am

skatingtripods wrote:
googleeph2 wrote:I have been wondering if Perez is still hurt from some time ago. Apparently not, though. I think his velocity is good.


This is his lowest season by Zone%, but his best season by first strike percentage (F-Strike%). Pretty interesting. Also lowest average velocity by season. It has since come back since the start of September after he sat in the 91-92.5 range most of the season. In September, it ranges from 91.9-94.4.

I don't think he's been fully healthy. Another Spring Training with an injury derailed his fastball velocity. Last season it was down until about June and then it sat consistently in the 93.5-95 range. This season, it came back, and then the shoulder went in Boston, and then it took him all of July and August to get it back.


One of the issues I have with the guy is it wouldn't suck to see him change up his offseason fitness regimen of Fritos, Cheetos, Dew and Purple Kush and mix in a few spinach smoothies, some sit ups and maybe some yoga.

Might find that actually taking care of yourself keeps ya healthier.

I know, I know.... crazy shit I'm coming up with.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 26, 2013 12:50 pm

peeker643 wrote:Might find that actually taking care of yourself keeps ya healthier.

I know, I know.... crazy shit I'm coming up with.


Get him on board with Advocare ;-) ;) :wink:
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby pup » Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:13 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
googleeph2 wrote:I have been wondering if Perez is still hurt from some time ago. Apparently not, though. I think his velocity is good.


This is his lowest season by Zone%, but his best season by first strike percentage (F-Strike%). Pretty interesting. Also lowest average velocity by season. It has since come back since the start of September after he sat in the 91-92.5 range most of the season. In September, it ranges from 91.9-94.4.

I don't think he's been fully healthy. Another Spring Training with an injury derailed his fastball velocity. Last season it was down until about June and then it sat consistently in the 93.5-95 range. This season, it came back, and then the shoulder went in Boston, and then it took him all of July and August to get it back.


So he is getting ahead and then trying to be cute.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 26, 2013 3:16 pm

pup wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:This is his lowest season by Zone%, but his best season by first strike percentage (F-Strike%). Pretty interesting.


So he is getting ahead and then trying to be cute.


Probably. Also thrown the highest percentage of sliders in his career this season.

I thought maybe the velo drop led to more horizontal movement on the fastball, thus creating more pitches outside the zone, but that wasn't the case. In fact, surprisingly, less velo this year has led to less movement on some fastballs. Release point is a little bit lower overall this season, if that has any effect.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:26 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Perez also has the third-highest average leverage index from 2010-13 of the 212 qualified relievers.

He may deserve flack for being abrasive and being an asshole in some people's opinions, but his performance is among the best in baseball as far as relievers go over the last four seasons.

They may not be the prettiest saves, but it's a results business and Perez's, for the most part, have been good.


This is just it with me though. Got no real problems with the 3 1/2 years, got a problem with the last few months. At times he looks a little old "Ubaldoish" in the sense that he seems to be reaching for stuff that ain't quite where it used to be, and it's causing him to get in "get me over fastball" mode. Whether it's not being 100%, or whatever - the guy out there in the last few months isn't the one out there previously. And recent history with a closer alarms me more than recent history with a position player.

All water under the bridge though, just based on sheer timing nothing different is gonna happen at this point. I'll just put on my Joe Borowski post season face.
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Re: 09/24/2013 - Indians Vs CWS - Big U goes for another Big

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:44 pm

leadpipe wrote:This is just it with me though. Got no real problems with the 3 1/2 years, got a problem with the last few months. At times he looks a little old "Ubaldoish" in the sense that he seems to be reaching for stuff that ain't quite where it used to be, and it's causing him to get in "get me over fastball" mode. Whether it's not being 100%, or whatever - the guy out there in the last few months isn't the one out there previously. And recent history with a closer alarms me more than recent history with a position player.

All water under the bridge though, just based on sheer timing nothing different is gonna happen at this point. I'll just put on my Joe Borowski post season face.


And that's completely fair to discuss. I don't think he's been healthy most of the season, not that it's an excuse, but that's it's just a reality with relievers. And I firmly believe, like many others, that Perez will not be brought back for next season. His price tag, attitude, and off-field issues all as contributing factors. Some team will take him in spite of all of that because he's still an effective reliever.

Lately, no, he hasn't been the same guy. He's throwing hard, but fastball command is clearly an issue.

But, as you said, nothing different will happen, and as far as I'm concerned, Perez is far and away the only closer on the roster.
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