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The return of stadium economics

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The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:35 pm

It comes back like grundge and flannel...

If you want to know where the Browns are headed on the field stop obsessing over the sports pages & blogs and start reading the metro page about stadium improvements financing & the sin tax expiration.

Haslam stands to lose hundreds of millions in revenue generation if this team doesn't win over fans aka voters.

I don't see Banners 3 - 5 year plan holding. Money talks and FO bullish!+ walks.

(link below from July - Fitz is running for Gov in 2014 Nov. NFW does he put a ballot initiative on that will be trounched when he's running for gov)


http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2013/07/cuyahoga_county_residents_coul.html


http://www.cleveland.com/opinion/index.ssf/2013/09/editorial_board_roundtable_who.html


Last year, Cleveland spent $5.8 million to refurbish seats and repair ramps and other structures, but that investment means it will not need to make another $850,000 contribution into the repair fund for about seven years, according to Ken Silliman, Mayor Frank Jackson's chief of staff.
The money to cover the $850,000 comes from proceeds of a countywide sin tax that's due to expire in 2015 unless it's forwarded to the ballot by County Council and renewed by taxpayers.


Today:

http://www.cleveland.com/naymik/index.ssf/2013/09/cleveland_browns_120_million_s.html#incart_river


1. No one does anything for free or pro bono even if that is their spin. This is real-life. The term "fan friendly stadium improvements" is BS. Big score boards and amenities are revenue drivers for adverstizing and to get fans to spend more money.

2. The sin tax is THE public stadium fund. Hard to believe to some of us but the 20 year sin tax passed to SOB expires in 2015. This means there are only two May and November elections left to pass any renewal attempt in 2014. Too late for this November. My understanding, and correct me if I am wrong, is that this can only be placed on a the ballet for renewal via a provision passed in July giving Cuyahoga County authorities the right to place it on a ballot. A petition may also work, but no way they get the signatures. Ed Fitzgerald is running for governor of the state of Ohio. It will largely be his decision to get the sin tax on the ballot. I would expect even the thought of the sin tax to be a very negative driver with unhappy voters (see, "fans"). This will tie back to Ed. It will be political gold for his GOP opponent to rip his solid Dem Ohio base from him. Additionally, the polls will show how unpopular this issue will be and that it has no prayer of passing.

Do you really expect Fitzgerald to spend any of his political capital on this? It'd be as dumb as a Dem putting an anti-gay marriage referendum on a ballot.

3. Haslam was supposed to work with the city/county to submit a wish list. He didn't follow through after allegedly charming them earlier this year when they met. So they just hired their own firm to study what HAS to be done such as infrastructure (plumbing, basic support, etc). This is a $ 400K study. IOW, they just told Haslam "sit down, son. Not working with you.".

4. There is no way in hell that Cuyahoga County will pass the sin tax again. 20 years ago, places like Euclid, Garfield Hts and Maple Hts weren't East Cleveland. They were respectable suburbs. But given the on field performance, this remote chance is dead.

5. Haslam has become exactly what we thought we dumped: a disinterested, absentee owner with other distractions.

6. Joe Banner is, um, not a warm personality. He's no Coach Sam. At some point, the criticism will require more and more responses from Banner. he will show himself to be the prick he is. The feeding frenzy will start on him like BB.

7. Many of the salt of the earth remaining dwindling fans bought into this new group turning things around. Sure, most fans had realistic expectations of 6 or 7 wins in 13, and then we were at least .500 in 14. That is some pretty realistic patience if you ask me. That doesn't look to be a reality as of today although I understand opinions vary. But by and large I sense that fans bought in and feel, on the whole, broad brush, disappointed so far. I sense no patience for a 3 or 4 win season.

8. Haslam's revenue is completely land locked and may well drop given the team's performance and fans' collective disappointment. If the season ticket and walk up base erodes he loses money. With the no shows sure to pick up without better on field performance he loses concessions and any parking. The city/county will not help him out with revenue enhancing capital improvements. With a crappy team, it will be too politically impossible. In fact, the situation is ripe for the opposite. Politicians are sh!+s. A demagogue will be able to easily capitalize on anti-Browns fan sentiment to his/her gain.

9. Does Jimmy Haslam III strike you as the sort of man who is going to stand by passively and lose money (not net, opp cost) ? This is the key question to me, because all signs point to him being manneuverd into a position where he is going to earn less revenue than when he purchased the team. Not lose money, but not make it either. You can make the case this is his toy and he doesn't really care, especially with the federal difficulties. I couldn't say with certainty you are wrong. But, I don;t think men like this take losing revenue well at all. Not with their drive.

10. This means to increase revenue Haslam has few cards to play. The public trough is done. I don't know if Haslam will give up without a fight but he has no high ground here. he just looks like a carpetbagging crook who makes big promises and the team sucks. IDK if that is fair but I believe that's how it'll be portrayed. Successfully. Fan support and thus ticket, concession and advertising revenue will fall with the fan disillusionment. So I don't think he pushes on this front. I also doubt he threatens to move the team even if he could.

11. So Haslam can either stand by passively and patiently while Joe Banner continues to talk about "building this the right way" and how "happy everyone will be in 5 years" while being "accountable" or....... Jimmuh is going to want the hundreds of millions of revenue being opportunity lost via a crappy product and he will push to actually win now. The clock doesn't even start on more revenue enhancement funding until the team wins.

What do you think is more likely?

Money talks, bullsh!+ process walks.

I believe that Haslam will emerge from the Flying J suits at some point and return his attention to the Browns. When he does, I believe he will look at the cluster fuck for what it is, wonder what Joe Banner has done since August 2012 in 2 seasons and stop listening to Joe telling him "how it's done". I think he steps in full of ego and bluster and urgency.

I predict this off season to come will make signing Dre Rison look like Ted banker. I think they go balls to the wall next offseason.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:45 pm

HA.... you're funny
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:46 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:HA.... you're funny



So your alternative analysis is..... rudderless suck?
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:55 pm

Uhm, first off you ignore that the prior stadium deal was literally one of the best ever (or worst, depending on how you look at it) and that its expiration is a foreseen conclusion to anyone but a complete and utter moron. Haslem factored this into his purchase price, rest assured.

Two, Haslem would have set forth on a plan with Banner that was agreed upon from jump. Guys don't spend a billion dollars and not know what their appointed CEO is going to do and how they are going to approach things.

Three, you ignore the NFL revenue sharing. The fucking Jags make enough money to be a profitable entity and about six toothless Floridians attend their games. You write as if it's 1995 still and it just plain ain't. Billion dollar TV deals, Merchandising rights being at all time highs, etc makes a revenue sharing based league bullet proof on every single level.

The only way any of your analysis makes sense is if huge unforeseen stadium costs come up in the future and it's pretty clear that Haslem put money in his budget to get out ahead of that and the expiration of the sin tax.

It's 2013 JB. You could put a bunch of fat cheerleaders on the field for 16 games and still make money in the NFL. And when these teams take operating losses rest assured they are planned losses/tax help for the financial interested parties.

All of this and I haven't even mentioned how fucking stupid Cleveland is and the fact that it's been 14 years and that place is still selling out.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:57 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Uhm, first off you ignore that the prior stadium deal was literally one of the best ever (or worst, depending on how you look at it) and that its expiration is a foreseen conclusion to anyone but a complete and utter moron. Haslem factored this into his purchase price, rest assured.

Two, Haslem would have set forth on a plan with Banner that was agreed upon from jump. Guys don't spend a billion dollars and not know what their appointed CEO is going to do and how they are going to approach things.

Three, you ignore the NFL revenue sharing. The fucking Jags make enough money to be a profitable entity and about six toothless Floridians attend their games. You write as if it's 1995 still and it just plain ain't. Billion dollar TV deals, Merchandising rights being at all time highs, etc makes a revenue sharing based league bullet proof on every single level.

The only way any of your analysis makes sense is if huge unforeseen stadium costs come up in the future and it's pretty clear that Haslem put money in his budget to get out ahead of that and the expiration of the sin tax.

It's 2013 JB. You could put a bunch of fat cheerleaders on the field for 16 games and still make money in the NFL. And when these teams take operating losses rest assured they are planned losses/tax help for the financial interested parties.

All of this and I haven't even mentioned how fucking stupid Cleveland is and the fact that it's been 14 years and that place is still selling out.


Trey ain't losing net. Only an idiot would suggest that.

He stands to lose millions in 2013 revenue enhancements via opportunity cost.

And there's not a shred of evidence that Haslam indicates he's payin' a dime. He's not doing that pro bono. Like every owner he wants the gov't to do that and for him to reap the benefits. He's not gonna be the one exception. In fact, he was to put a detailed plan together to ask the City to pay $ 120 million. Flying J ht and he never did that.

I also see the sell outs waning. The Peekers and Wiz's are even going to give up when they can't move their seasons theyd on't want.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 12:59 pm

And that was budgeted for when he bought the team JB.

Seriously, this is a simple analysis. It's like a major real estate deal, you factor improvement costs into any and all purchase prices.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:00 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:And that was budgeted for when he bought the team JB.



Ur making that up via assumption.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:01 pm

JB, when you buy something big you put together worst case budget scenarios and best case scenarios. Haslem isn't an idiot. Financial changes will not have any affect on management unless some major unforeseen cost comes up.

Seriously. This is simple.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:02 pm

jb wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:And that was budgeted for when he bought the team JB.



Ur making that up via assumption.


As someone that has worked on billion+ dollar transactions before...
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:03 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:
jb wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:And that was budgeted for when he bought the team JB.



Ur making that up via assumption.


As someone that has worked on billion+ dollar transactions before...



No, I'm not questioning your experience. I am calling BS that you have insight into THIS deal. the fact is haslam is pursuing the city to pay for these items. It's all on records in the gull dern links, Eye.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:06 pm

You're right JB, he didn't have a complete analysis of the stadium done before he bought the Browns and anticipate these costs...

He'd be a fool not to ask the city to pay for them, especially somewhere as backward as Cleveland. That doesn't mean he didn't budget for having to own them himself.

People don't buy big things without knowing how much they will cost to get operating at an acceptable level and what the worst case out of pocket cost could be.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:07 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:You're right JB, he didn't have a complete analysis of the stadium done before he bought the Browns and anticipate these costs...

He'd be a full not to ask the city to pay for them, especially somewhere as backward as Cleveland. That doesn't mean he didn't budget for having to own them himself.

People don't buy big things without knowing how much they will cost to get operating at an acceptable level and what the worst case out of pocket cost could be.


We'll see.

We'll see when his operating revenues fall from the state of the team. We'll see if he remains patient and deferential to Banner.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:10 pm

Look at it this way JB, I'd bet you Pilot J could have been plenty profitable if they didn't scam every none English speaking customer they had....

But one day Jimmuh was all "hey, why not try that out, if it doesn't work out we're fine and if it does just more $$$ for nuttin"
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:13 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Look at it this way JB, I'd bet you Pilot J could have been plenty profitable if they didn't scam every none English speaking customer they had....

But one day Jimmuh was all "hey, why not try that out, if it doesn't work out we're fine and if it does just more $$$ for nuttin"


IDK Eye. I feel like we're mangini and Shaun Rogers at a banquet here.

I'm not saying Haslam is in trouble. And you COULD be right in that he intends to improve No Energy Stadium on his own dime to max his revenue and asking the city is just taking a shot. I'm in no way doing the internets you don't know what ur talking about.

But not having the sin tax to draw upon is a bigger deal than you dismiss long-term. Trey will need public renevue long term. They waytp do that is to win football games.

BTW - Tom Reed tweets that Trey is in the buidling today meeting with Banner.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby JacksonDysonJackson » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:25 pm

JB, what are you ultimately worried about?

Haslam becoming TMLP II or The Move II?
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:28 pm

JacksonDysonJackson wrote:JB, what are you ultimately worried about?

Haslam becoming TMLP II or The Move II?



Nothing.

Nothing at all.

I'm optimistic that this scenario will get Banner more involved and insert urgency into Banner's BS 3 - 5 year "process" that results in off seasons like this one.

I believe there is in fact a link between disgruntled fans and Haslam's income..
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby JacksonDysonJackson » Wed Sep 18, 2013 1:37 pm

Eh, see, this is where we differ.

Haslam telling Banner to "win damnit!!!!" will do nothing to actually get us there. All it will do is (a) either cause strife between the two men and/or (b) divert Banner from his plan / process / whatever.

You hire the man, you hire the plan. Banner has His Idea for Turning the Browns into Super Bowl Contenders. If you don't believe in it, don't hire Banner.

Now, if you want to argue the sense in giving a non-football guy 100% authority of football operations, I'm all ears.

(PS - "get Banner more involved"????????????)
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby justmebd » Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:48 pm

This begets another argument: Banner's Ego Vs. Mangini's Ego -- Will Banner's ego ultimately end up hurting the team more than Mangini's did.

Both have/had their "plan." Mangini's plan was so bad he was "fired" from the FO duties of his job before one full year had passed. By my rough calculation, that gives Banner about six-eight more weeks to "beat" Mangini's number.

Additional wrinkle: You have a fan base with four more years of disgruntlement and four more years of built-up frustration. What does Haslem do if the losses keep piling up and another "Factory of Sadness" video pops up to embarrass the new organization?

I know if I lived up there, I wouldn't be voting for any kind of shit tax on anything. Haslem is a scammer*, so I guess he can come up with something for that stadium I won't pay to get into.

Before anyone answers, I'm well aware I need to drink more and not give a frig about any of this.

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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 2:58 pm

JacksonDysonJackson wrote:Eh, see, this is where we differ.

Haslam telling Banner to "win damnit!!!!" will do nothing to actually get us there. All it will do is (a) either cause strife between the two men and/or (b) divert Banner from his plan / process / whatever.

You hire the man, you hire the plan. Banner has His Idea for Turning the Browns into Super Bowl Contenders. If you don't believe in it, don't hire Banner.

Now, if you want to argue the sense in giving a non-football guy 100% authority of football operations, I'm all ears.

(PS - "get Banner more involved"????????????)


This is not sum zero.

I wouldn't expect haslam to say "select player A over player B".

I would expect him to set strategy such as "Dadgummit we want to pump out wins like we pump out taquiters at my gull dern Flyin J now here fellas. We ain't sittin on our thumbs for 2 more years before you tell m ethere some taquiters on the rollars, dangit! Now gho make me some taquiters and I mean now, not in 2016!!"

But, Jim, you just don't understand how this is done...

"Now see here. I'm a billionare. See this picture of my yaght? It's got a dinginge bigger than your house Michael. Now if you don;t want yourself back there on that there cable sports network you see about gettin me 10 taquiters this season or I'll find someone that will!"


That scenario is nothing but a straight up positive development.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:00 pm

JacksonDysonJackson wrote:Eh, see, this is where we differ.

Haslam telling Banner to "win damnit!!!!" will do nothing to actually get us there. All it will do is (a) either cause strife between the two men and/or (b) divert Banner from his plan / process / whatever.

You hire the man, you hire the plan. Banner has His Idea for Turning the Browns into Super Bowl Contenders. If you don't believe in it, don't hire Banner.

Now, if you want to argue the sense in giving a non-football guy 100% authority of football operations, I'm all ears.

(PS - "get Banner more involved"????????????)



BTW - His plan is bullshit so far.

He promised immediate improvement.

You see it?
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby FUDU » Wed Sep 18, 2013 3:54 pm

Best way to improve the stadium and stadium experience is to put a superior product on the field.

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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby JacksonDysonJackson » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:15 pm

That scenario is nothing but a straight up positive development.


Are you being serious? Half-cocked mandates beget short-sighted moves.

jb wrote:
JacksonDysonJackson wrote:Eh, see, this is where we differ.

Haslam telling Banner to "win damnit!!!!" will do nothing to actually get us there. All it will do is (a) either cause strife between the two men and/or (b) divert Banner from his plan / process / whatever.

You hire the man, you hire the plan. Banner has His Idea for Turning the Browns into Super Bowl Contenders. If you don't believe in it, don't hire Banner.

Now, if you want to argue the sense in giving a non-football guy 100% authority of football operations, I'm all ears.

(PS - "get Banner more involved"????????????)



BTW - His plan is bullshit so far.

He promised immediate improvement.

You see it?


2 games in? Nope. I see the same shit.

I'll give them this season and next, and then cast judgement.

You ready for another FA upheaval already?
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 4:28 pm

JacksonDysonJackson wrote:
That scenario is nothing but a straight up positive development.


Are you being serious? Half-cocked mandates beget short-sighted moves.

jb wrote:
JacksonDysonJackson wrote:Eh, see, this is where we differ.

Haslam telling Banner to "win damnit!!!!" will do nothing to actually get us there. All it will do is (a) either cause strife between the two men and/or (b) divert Banner from his plan / process / whatever.

You hire the man, you hire the plan. Banner has His Idea for Turning the Browns into Super Bowl Contenders. If you don't believe in it, don't hire Banner.

Now, if you want to argue the sense in giving a non-football guy 100% authority of football operations, I'm all ears.

(PS - "get Banner more involved"????????????)



BTW - His plan is bullshit so far.

He promised immediate improvement.

You see it?


2 games in? Nope. I see the same shit.

I'll give them this season and next, and then cast judgement.

You ready for another FA upheaval already?



You might.

I'm saying in the context of revenue enhancements they don't have that kind of time.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:40 pm

So, Haslem met with Banner to okay dumping T-Rich?

Yeeeaaah, JB, this take is just flat wrong.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:54 pm

This makes my case. 13?is dead. Win now in 14. Balls to the wall.

No more eval. No more foot dragging. About as urgent as it gets
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:56 pm

How does this make your case? They were going to pick in the top six anyhow. Dumping a talented but flawed 2nd year player for the #22 pick is win in 2015 BEST case.

The fanbase is about to become more jaded than ever and as soon as they lose two games in 2014 they may just quit.

This deal is the very definition of 3-5 year plan.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby Orenthal » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:24 pm

Semi-rational midddle class guy does the same assessment that e0 suggests when buying a house. Always gonna look for other people to pay b4 putting up your own money and the gov't is usually the place to get a yes.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby JacksonDysonJackson » Wed Sep 18, 2013 7:30 pm

Hahaha... Come on JB. Even you don't believe that. Banner just bought a few more years with that trade.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby JacksonDysonJackson » Wed Sep 18, 2013 8:21 pm

Hahaha... Come on JB. Even you don't believe that. Banner just bought a few more years with that trade.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:46 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:How does this make your case? They were going to pick in the top six anyhow. Dumping a talented but flawed 2nd year player for the #22 pick is win in 2015 BEST case.

The fanbase is about to become more jaded than ever and as soon as they lose two games in 2014 they may just quit.

This deal is the very definition of 3-5 year plan.



They know they can win with 'em. So they're now all of a sudden blowing it all up ASAP.

Fasted way to make a huge splash ASAP.Clear even more cap space & infuse high picks. I see acceleration now.

I'm ready to set it aside with a we'll see. I'm certainly keeping ur take in mind,
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby jb » Wed Sep 18, 2013 9:48 pm

JacksonDysonJackson wrote:Hahaha... Come on JB. Even you don't believe that. Banner just bought a few more years with that trade.



See I think he just took hot water and said F it. Lets go to a boil.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:31 am

jb wrote:
JacksonDysonJackson wrote:Eh, see, this is where we differ.

Haslam telling Banner to "win damnit!!!!" will do nothing to actually get us there. All it will do is (a) either cause strife between the two men and/or (b) divert Banner from his plan / process / whatever.

You hire the man, you hire the plan. Banner has His Idea for Turning the Browns into Super Bowl Contenders. If you don't believe in it, don't hire Banner.

Now, if you want to argue the sense in giving a non-football guy 100% authority of football operations, I'm all ears.

(PS - "get Banner more involved"????????????)



BTW - His plan is bullshit so far.

He promised immediate improvement.

You see it?


As of yesterday I do.
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Re: The return of stadium economics

Unread postby pod2dawg » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:20 am

I believe we have 10 picks in "13"......we'll need them.
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