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Week 1: Who you got?

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Week 1: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:02 am

I cannot bet on games for a lot of reasons (it is illegal, it would be considered conduct unbecoming an officer, security clearance vs. possible ties to organized crime, etc.), but I do like to play along a little, so who do you guys have this week?

I usually think that week 1 is a good week to find pretty good value picks. Here are some games I am looking at:

-I like 'Bama (-21) to destroy VaTech. Saban is a good coach and they return all the key components. It will be as ugly as scUM vs. Bama was last year. 21 is a lot, particularly this early in the season, but I just cant see Vatech scoring more than 10 and I certainly see more than 31 out of 'Bama.

-I like Purdue to cover (+10) vs. Cincy. I just don't see why I should be excited about Cincy. That line stands out to me like a sore thumb.

-State Penn to cover (-10) vs. Syracuse. New coach at 'Cuse and I like what BoB is doing in Happy V. I think they shake the early season mishaps from last year and easily cover.

-I like WasU +14 vs. Auburn. I don't love this game, but I would play a little on it.

-I like Clemson +3 vs. UGA. Clemson was strong last year at the end of the season and they return all the key components, couple that with the tendency for Richt teams to start slow and I think we get a mini upset. I like Clemson straight up so I would probably take the money line +125.

-I like TCU straight up over LSU. LSU lost 11 underclassmen this year and that is a lot to replace. This early in the season coaching is everything, and I think Patterson is probably a top 3 coach in the NCAA (behind only Meyer and Saban). +170.

So if I had 1K to spread over the entire day here is how I would put it:

'Bama -21 for 200.
Purdue +10 for 100.
Stat Penn -10 for 50.
WasU +14 for 100.
Clemson +125 for 400
TCU +170 for 150
Coming from a Wolverine, we're the football equivalent of a formerly abused wife of a meth addict who just remarried the safe nice guy. We're just glad we have someone who's aware that it's a rivalry and that tackling on defense is integral. Baby steps.

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Re: Week 1: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:07 am

I guess Herbstreit picked Toledo over the Gators (-22.5/-1750). I think the Rockets could cover. I really don't like Muschump and his offenses have proven a bit anemic making 22.5 a potentially difficult cover. I just don't know enough about Toledo to determine if there is a way to pick them +1350.
Coming from a Wolverine, we're the football equivalent of a formerly abused wife of a meth addict who just remarried the safe nice guy. We're just glad we have someone who's aware that it's a rivalry and that tackling on defense is integral. Baby steps.

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Re: Week 1: Who you got?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Sat Aug 31, 2013 11:51 am

I really have no idea who I like in UGA - Clemson. UGA should walk away with it but I have a pretty strong Taj love.
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Re: Week 1: Who you got?

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Aug 31, 2013 12:13 pm

New Mexico -2.5
BYU -3 (bad number because well-respected syndicate crushed the other side UVA)
Temple/ND u53
Boise/Washington u53
Bill&Mary/WVU u62
Florida State -10

Split on Fresno -10 and Ball State -12

More chalk than usual for me.

Bama may pitch a shutout. I'd lean -21, but line's close to where I have it. Leaned Cincy, wound up not playing it. Penn State has major QB issues. I have this line higher, but I didn't play it. Washington State has rough travel and doesn't have the speed on defense to contain Auburn. I'd lean Auburn. Gimme UGA tonight. Clemson loses 2500 yards of offense from Andre Ellington and DeAndre Hopkins. Their RB and possession WR. Boyd won't be able to pick apart a SEC D like he can ACC D.

TCU's interesting. No play on the game (though I would have loved TCU +7.5 at open).
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Re: Week 1: Who you got?

Unread postby furls » Sat Sep 07, 2013 12:47 pm

'Bama -21 for 200.
Purdue +10 for 100.
Stat Penn -10 for 50.
WasU +14 for 100.
Clemson +125 for 400
TCU +170 for 150


So it looks like I would have won 'Bama, WasU, Clemson and lost Purdue, TCU and State Penn.

So, I would be +200+100+500-110-150-55 = 800-315 = +485 not bad for going 3-3.
Coming from a Wolverine, we're the football equivalent of a formerly abused wife of a meth addict who just remarried the safe nice guy. We're just glad we have someone who's aware that it's a rivalry and that tackling on defense is integral. Baby steps.

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