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7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

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7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:03 pm

Swisher with two very nice plays so far in a game that will be remembered for Yan Gomez dousing Justin Masterson with popcorn, peanuts and water mercilessly throughout a 15 minute on-air interview.

That shit was hilarious.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:04 pm

I'm just surprised 1B ump Bob Davidson hasn't called a balk yet.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:30 pm

Good start by Zack but that should be it. That Change-up is no longer fooling anyone. I'm worried he can't/won't throw his curve because of the injury.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:35 pm

1st and 2nd.....Kipnis better bunt :hide: ;-) ;) :wink:
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:36 pm

Still hate the idea, especially after back-to-back walks. But at least he put down a good one.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:37 pm

Bases Loaded :dingle: Fuck Metrics and Stats :lmfao:
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:41 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:Bases Loaded :dingle: Fuck Metrics and Stats :lmfao:


You play for one run, you get one run.

And they got lucky to get that one run.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:42 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Still hate the idea, especially after back-to-back walks. But at least he put down a good one.



I get both sides.

In this situation I think it makes more sense than the last one in that its Lefty on lefty, mid to late in the game, need to tie it and Jason has struck out twice already
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:44 pm

Ding-Dong!
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:50 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Dnthateonthepronk wrote:Bases Loaded :dingle: Fuck Metrics and Stats :lmfao:


You play for one run, you get one run.

And they got lucky to get that one run.



That makes no sense. They didnt get only one run because they played for one run. They loaded the bases with nobody out and couldnt cash in. Thats why they only got one run. Playing for one run got them into position to get more, they just didnt execute.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:52 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Still hate the idea, especially after back-to-back walks. But at least he put down a good one.



I get both sides.

In this situation I think it makes more sense than the last one in that its Lefty on lefty, mid to late in the game, need to tie it and Jason has struck out twice already


It should NEVER make sense to have your #3 hitter lay down a sac bunt.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 8:58 pm

A successful sacrifice bunt in that situation takes the Indians win expectancy from .5338 to .5380. A walk or a hit (to load the bases) takes it from .5338 to .6836.

How does that make giving up an out a good idea? And the win expectancy program I'm using doesn't take into account that Danks walked the first two batters nor does it take into account that the #3 hitter is at the plate.

Fine, it worked out. Doesn't mean it was the right thing to do.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:02 pm

According to the Fangraphs live win expectancy box score, Aviles's sac bunt in this inning lowered our win expectancy by 2%.

Code: Select all
Pitcher   Player   Outs   Base   Score   Inning - Bottom 7   LI   WE
J Danks   M Reynolds   0   ___   2-2   Mark Reynolds walked.   1.51   64.3 %
M Lindstrom   M Aviles   0   1__   2-2   Mike Aviles sacrificed to pitcher (Bunt Grounder). Mark Reynolds advanced to 2B.   2.35   62.3 %
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:09 pm

At some point stats/ numbers become meaningless. In some cases its just overkill always having to explain something numerically or give something a statistical value.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:11 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:At some point stats/ numbers become meaningless. In some cases its just overkill always having to explain something numerically or give something a statistical value.


In a game built entirely on stats and numbers, there's a point where they become meaningless?
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:11 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Fine, it worked out. Doesn't mean it was the right thing to do.



In that situation it was the right thing to do. A computer doesnt know nor can a computer take everything into account.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby RedDawg53 » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:16 pm

Gotta love these umpires
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:16 pm

Spectacularly bad call by Blue. Wow. And a rookie to boot.

At least Terry gave him what for, "We're in a pennant chase here rook and you can't blow these calls."
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:18 pm

Bet a computer would have gotten that call right at second.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:18 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Dnthateonthepronk wrote:At some point stats/ numbers become meaningless. In some cases its just overkill always having to explain something numerically or give something a statistical value.


In a game built entirely on stats and numbers, there's a point where they become meaningless?



Yes because numbers geeks(not calling you a numbers geek) become obssessed with trying and feel the need to assign every little aspect a number in order to calculate it into a stat or give it some sort of meaning. Its overkill. Even in a stat driven sport such as baseball you cant quantify and explain everything and eventually you reach a point where the Brainiacs just start spouting intelligent sounding garbage out and nobody questions it because nobody really understands it so we just assume they are right.

Also im not against stats at all. I just think its more of a blend when you evaluate players or game situations.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:19 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Bet a computer would have gotten that call right at second.



Nice :lmfao:
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:20 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
Dnthateonthepronk wrote:At some point stats/ numbers become meaningless. In some cases its just overkill always having to explain something numerically or give something a statistical value.


In a game built entirely on stats and numbers, there's a point where they become meaningless?



Yes because numbers geeks(not calling you a numbers geek) become obssessed with trying and feel the need to assign every little aspect a number in order to calculate it into a stat or give it some sort of meaning. Its overkill. Even in a stat driven sport such as baseball you cant quantify and explain everything and eventually you reach a point where the Brainiacs just start spouting intelligent sounding garbage out and nobody questions it because nobody really understands it so we just assume they are right.

Also im not against stats at all. I just think its more of a blend when you evaluate players or game situations.



Whatever you say. A lot of people in front offices across the league would vehemently disagree with you.

But, you admitted you don't understand it, so I guess I understand your dissension.

Edit: I'm sure that came off condescending. I assure you it wasn't intended to be.
Last edited by skatingtripods on Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:21 pm

Rich Hill doesn't want the Indians to add a LOOGY.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:23 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Rich Hill doesn't want the Indians to add a LOOGY.


Hill may be coming around, but I'd rather have a real LOOGY.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:25 pm

Time for Kip to steal..... ump can't call him out even if he's out by 5 feet, right?!
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:25 pm

bookelly wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Rich Hill doesn't want the Indians to add a LOOGY.


Hill may be coming around, but I'd rather have a real LOOGY.


He's a good second LOOGY. As the primary one, I'd rather have somebody else. Hill's the kind of guy I'd like to use in the 6th or 7th. But give me Lopez, Thatcher, or Wright for the 8th or a huge spot in the 7th. Not even sure I like Outman that much more than Hill. He's not exactly experienced in that role and is a walking injury risk.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:25 pm

bookelly wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Rich Hill doesn't want the Indians to add a LOOGY.


Hill may be coming around, but I'd rather have a real LOOGY.


LOOGY smoogy..... just get a guy who can get people out.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:26 pm

Yes...Hill is more suited to a spittle role than actual LOOGY.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:26 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
bookelly wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Rich Hill doesn't want the Indians to add a LOOGY.


Hill may be coming around, but I'd rather have a real LOOGY.


LOOGY smoogy..... just get a guy who can get people out.


Not many RHP out there that have good splits against LHB. I agree with your overall point, and would like two bullpen arms - a RHP and a LHP, but if we're picking between the two, give me a LOOGY.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:27 pm

We need Balkin' Bob Davidson to make this a bigger umpshow.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:30 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
dazindiansfanuk wrote:
bookelly wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Rich Hill doesn't want the Indians to add a LOOGY.


Hill may be coming around, but I'd rather have a real LOOGY.


LOOGY smoogy..... just get a guy who can get people out.


Not many RHP out there that have good splits against LHB. I agree with your overall point, and would like two bullpen arms - a RHP and a LHP, but if we're picking between the two, give me a LOOGY.


As a stats guy though, aren't LOOGY's considered a waste of a roster spot?

Take Joe Thatcher as an example.... he's a guy that, based on appearances to date, is on pace to only pitch another 15 innings this year..... how valuable can a guy truly be to a team when all he's going to give you is 15IP?

That said, we already have a LOOGY so, if we're going to have one, we might as well have a good one.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby pup » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:31 pm

skatingtripods wrote:A successful sacrifice bunt in that situation takes the Indians win expectancy from .5338 to .5380. A walk or a hit (to load the bases) takes it from .5338 to .6836.

How does that make giving up an out a good idea? And the win expectancy program I'm using doesn't take into account that Danks walked the first two batters nor does it take into account that the #3 hitter is at the plate.

Fine, it worked out. Doesn't mean it was the right thing to do.


What does a strikeout/flyout/GIDP do for you?
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:35 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:As a stats guy though, aren't LOOGY's considered a waste of a roster spot?

Take Joe Thatcher as an example.... he's a guy that, based on appearances to date, is on pace to only pitch another 15 innings this year..... how valuable can a guy truly be to a team when all he's going to give you is 15IP?

That said, we already have a LOOGY so, if we're going to have one, we might as well have a good one.


To an extent, but if you're big on platoon splits like I am, I consider them quite valuable. They generally pitch in medium-to-high leverage situations where your best relievers are supposed to pitch. Right now, outside of Perez, there is nobody I want to see in a high leverage situation.

LOOGYs are "replacement-level" in WAR, there's no doubt about that. But sabermetrics is also big on sample size, which LOOGYs clearly don't have.

Sure, you'd ideally like a premier setup guy who can get batters out, no matter how they bat. But, those aren't exactly available right now. So, you do the best you can, which is a matchup guy.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:42 pm

pup wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:A successful sacrifice bunt in that situation takes the Indians win expectancy from .5338 to .5380. A walk or a hit (to load the bases) takes it from .5338 to .6836.

How does that make giving up an out a good idea? And the win expectancy program I'm using doesn't take into account that Danks walked the first two batters nor does it take into account that the #3 hitter is at the plate.

Fine, it worked out. Doesn't mean it was the right thing to do.


What does a strikeout/flyout/GIDP do for you?


K/flyout goes from .5338 to .4223. GIDP .5338 to .3193.

I'll grant you that K/flyout is certainly more likely than hit/walk.

This is how the discussion should go. It's a risk-reward argument. Personally, I let Kipnis hit and I don't let my #3 hitter bunt there. You, an old school guy, seemingly would.

I'll defend my position, you'll defend yours and we'll go around and around.

So, I'll leave it at "Point taken."
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:44 pm

Boy have we played some very bad and very good defense this game. No better illustrated than by the last two plays.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:48 pm

Awesome.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:48 pm

GIAMBINO!!!
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby 1Perry » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:49 pm

And I guess that is why he is still around.............
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:50 pm

Nice when you can have one of your managers come off the bench and finish it for you.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:53 pm

Anybody listening to Tom Hamilton? Is he still alive?
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 9:57 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Anybody listening to Tom Hamilton? Is he still alive?



Just flicked over to the radio broadcast to catch the highlights..... he's still breathing it would appear.

Highlights not been played yet so still waiting on hearing the call where he'll no doubt explode!
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 10:05 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Anybody listening to Tom Hamilton? Is he still alive?



Just flicked over to the radio broadcast to catch the highlights..... he's still breathing it would appear.

Highlights not been played yet so still waiting on hearing the call where he'll no doubt explode!


The call was a bit understated to be honest - not Hammy's best.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 10:15 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
dazindiansfanuk wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Anybody listening to Tom Hamilton? Is he still alive?



Just flicked over to the radio broadcast to catch the highlights..... he's still breathing it would appear.

Highlights not been played yet so still waiting on hearing the call where he'll no doubt explode!


The call was a bit understated to be honest - not Hammy's best.


Yeah, I went and switched the laundry so I could be near the shower radio. Wasn't his best at all.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 29, 2013 10:35 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Dnthateonthepronk wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
Dnthateonthepronk wrote:At some point stats/ numbers become meaningless. In some cases its just overkill always having to explain something numerically or give something a statistical value.


In a game built entirely on stats and numbers, there's a point where they become meaningless?



Yes because numbers geeks(not calling you a numbers geek) become obssessed with trying and feel the need to assign every little aspect a number in order to calculate it into a stat or give it some sort of meaning. Its overkill. Even in a stat driven sport such as baseball you cant quantify and explain everything and eventually you reach a point where the Brainiacs just start spouting intelligent sounding garbage out and nobody questions it because nobody really understands it so we just assume they are right.

Also im not against stats at all. I just think its more of a blend when you evaluate players or game situations.



Whatever you say. A lot of people in front offices across the league would vehemently disagree with you.

But, you admitted you don't understand it, so I guess I understand your dissension.

Edit: I'm sure that came off condescending. I assure you it wasn't intended to be.


I believe you are not being condescending.

1. Those front offices are filled with said Brainiacs/egomaniacs so Im going to assume they would but then again I dont believe that all front offices would disagree.

2. I never said I dont understand.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 29, 2013 10:56 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:I believe you are not being condescending.

1. Those front offices are filled with said Brainiacs/egomaniacs so Im going to assume they would but then again I dont believe that all front offices would disagree.

2. I never said I dont understand.


I guess it's just a matter of what baseball philosophy you subscribe to. I gave Pup some numbers regarding win probability that give a lot of credibility to your argument to bunt.

I wish I could be one of those front office brainiac/egomaniac people. Would be awesome.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 29, 2013 11:45 pm

Danks was on top of his game. He had given up one hit in the first 5 innings, and that was questionable. Kipnis struck out both times he faced him. Obviously Kip was not feeling comfortable swinging the bat against this guy so he decided to move the runners so the three right-handed bats coming up behind him (Cabby, Santana, and Reynolds) had a chance to get at least one of them in.

When you look at tens of thousands of situations and crunch the numbers, putting down a bunt right there doesn't do anything for you -on average. But with this specific batter against this specific pitcher it was probably the right move.

I can't believe the Sox manager left Veal in to pitch to Giambi with lefties hitting close to .400 against him. That's asking for a walk-off. He must have had no respect for Giambi. Well, he does now.

The much improved defense in left field this year has saved a number of games. Three nice running catches by Raburn (1) and Brantley (2) on balls that looked like doubles coming off the bat.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:34 am

skatingtripods wrote:I wish I could be one of those front office brainiac/egomaniac people. Would be awesome.



It would. Then you could hire somebody to create that GIF of Santanna bailing out on pitches
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Tue Jul 30, 2013 1:37 am

Prosecutor wrote:
I can't believe the Sox manager left Veal in to pitch to Giambi with lefties hitting close to .400 against him. That's asking for a walk-off. He must have had no respect for Giambi. Well, he does now.

\


Its probably good you cant believe it :thumb up: considering thats not what happened :hide: ;-) ;) :wink:

Giambi hit the HR against Trancoso ;-) ;) :wink:
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Tue Jul 30, 2013 5:38 am

skatingtripods wrote:I wish I could be one of those front office brainiac/egomaniac people. Would be awesome.


Is it possible these people are too smart for their own good?

The stats look at events in relative isolation- but don't consider them in full context. Let's say you lay down a bunt with your #3 guy. The inning results in one run.

You keep a one run lead into the 8th inning. But your setup man went out to a bar the night before and got his eye mashed in. You have to throw a guy who you normally wouldn't. Said guy gives up 2 runs and you lose by 1.

The stats would support the "sac bunts don't lead to more wins" idea, when in reality is was because of some D-bag name Tanner running his mouth at 2am.

Or is there an algorithm that takes into account meat-headedness?

Nice shot by Grandfather Time, and I liked Hammy's call just fine.
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Re: 7-29-13 W. Sox @ Tribe

Unread postby Prosecutor » Tue Jul 30, 2013 7:57 am

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:
I can't believe the Sox manager left Veal in to pitch to Giambi with lefties hitting close to .400 against him. That's asking for a walk-off. He must have had no respect for Giambi. Well, he does now.

\


Its probably good you cant believe it :thumb up: considering thats not what happened :hide: ;-) ;) :wink:

Giambi hit the HR against Trancoso ;-) ;) :wink:


Sorry, you're right, it was Trancoso. Lefties are now hitting .382 off Trancoso. I hope our lefties get to hit against him again this series, but I doubt it.

Speaking of relief pitching, Chris Perez has been awesome lately. I was sure he was going to blow it after Raburn turned a routine single into a triple, but Rage wasn't fazed and got the 3rd out with no drama. That should have been ruled a single and an error, by the way, but scorers don't penalize outfielders when they stupidly try to make difficult catches and let the ball get away for extra bases.
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