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Justin Verlander

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jul 25, 2013 3:45 pm

Justin Verlander getting blasted by the shitty White Sox today. Since the start of June, Verlander's ERA is 4.27, his WHIP is 1.48, his average fastball velocity has sat 92.9, after averaging 94.3 last year, 95 the year before. Fourth straight year of velo decline, this one is the steepest. Lowest chase rate of last five years. Second-highest contact rate in that span. Very big spike in walk rate, nearly one more walk per nine innings. 2.4% jump.

There's gotta be something wrong with him. I don't know what it is, and it's kind of crazy to consider a 4.26 a terrible year, but we're talking about a pretty big sample size of 11 starts here. When he's been bad, he's been really bad. Has some spectacular outings in that span. 50 strikeouts, 26 walks in 71.2 innings.

He's the type of guy who could roll out of bed and throw a no hitter on any given day, but I wonder if the Tigers are starting to get concerned.
Last edited by skatingtripods on Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 3:55 pm

^^^^^^

Ubaldo would kill for those numbers... ;-) ;) :wink:
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jul 25, 2013 3:59 pm

peeker643 wrote:^^^^^^

Ubaldo would kill for those numbers... ;-) ;) :wink:


Since you didn't ask, Jimenez since June 1:

3.42 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 91.44 avg FB velo, 47 K, 31 BB in 52.2 IP.

Ubaldo must be Spanish for Smoke and Mirrors.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:16 pm

What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby peeker643 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:22 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?


The Indians don't have an option on Verlander next year.

Idiot!!
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby Am I Here Again? » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:30 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?


If you're talking Ubaldo they may or may not have an option. Depends on how you read into this:
4 years/$10M (2009-12), plus 2013-14 club options
signed extension with Colorado 1/27/09
09:$0.75M, 10:$1.25M, 11:$2.8M, 12:$4.2M, 13:$5.75M club option ($1M buyout), 14:$8M club option ($1M buyout)
2014 option only if 2013 option is exercised (may void 2014 if traded)

From: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compe ... d-indians/

Depends on if the 2014 option was/will be voided or not because we got him and this arrangement from CO.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:32 pm

:lmfao:
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Jul 25, 2013 4:48 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?


Next to none ILO.

For two reasons, 1. I think they see the Hybrid Paul Byrd/Joe Borowski act he's pulling. Guy is on about as lucky a run as you can be on. How many two guys, on bullet right at somebodys can you string together? 2. I think they treat him like they understand number 1. They don't get him out after 5 1/3 cause he's already at 175 pitches, they get him the hell out cause they know they are pressing their luck.

They deserve credit for finally getting it through his head that the days of throwing 97 are over. He's staying within himself now. Problem is that his stuff is really pedestrian - and he'll still lose command often. Plus, again, he a 5 inning guy.

My guess is they can't wait to get rid of him, especially because they are getting some results from some of the young guys.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby kman_holla8 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:24 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?


I wish he would take his talents somewhere else...
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby kman_holla8 » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:28 pm

Verlander might be going thru a little dead arm action right now. They should skip his turn once or something to get him some rest.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:43 pm

leadpipe wrote:
WiscTribeFan wrote:What are the odds of the Tribe exercising his option next year?


Next to none ILO.

For two reasons, 1. I think they see the Hybrid Paul Byrd/Joe Borowski act he's pulling. Guy is on about as lucky a run as you can be on. How many two guys, on bullet right at somebodys can you string together? 2. I think they treat him like they understand number 1. They don't get him out after 5 1/3 cause he's already at 175 pitches, they get him the hell out cause they know they are pressing their luck.

They deserve credit for finally getting it through his head that the days of throwing 97 are over. He's staying within himself now. Problem is that his stuff is really pedestrian - and he'll still lose command often. Plus, again, he a 5 inning guy.

My guess is they can't wait to get rid of him, especially because they are getting some results from some of the young guys.


I hope this is the case, but I'm not so sure. I don't think they'll retain Kazmir, in part because he's pitching himself into a decent contract and his health will forever be an issue. I don't know if they'll want two of Carrasco, Salazar, and Bauer in the rotation. The free agent crop is mediocre, but they could find a one-year stopgap to limit the exposure of the young kids. Of course, they tried that with Myers and it blew up in their faces.

There's two ways they can look at Jimenez, and they're polar opposites. They can take your approach, which I agree with because it's 100% correct, or they can cite his improvement in the traditional pitching metrics and say that they don't want to give up any viable starting pitcher.

I would hope that a front office as sabermetrically-inclined as the Indians would be digging deeper than the surface (although the surface ain't pretty to look at either) and get rid of Jimenez.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Jul 25, 2013 7:18 pm

Don't forget the Little Cowboy is back next year. Gives you Zach, Justin, Corey, Josh and one of the three yutes. I'm sure they'll find a reclamation project a la KaZmir or Pavano.

I'd rather spend that Ubaldo and Myers money on KaZmir and see if we can't get him for 3/24 or 2/15+ an option. He'd still be in line for a fat contract at 32 years old if he proves himself.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby GodHatesClevelandSport » Thu Jul 25, 2013 7:27 pm

Huge controversy in my longtime rotisserie baseball league at the beginning of the month when a Verlander trade was protested and overturned based on dumping. The ruling was that the guy trading Verlander didn't get enough back in return.

Verlander's been garbage since then, so the guy who wanted him should be pretty happy.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jul 25, 2013 7:33 pm

bookelly wrote:Don't forget the Little Cowboy is back next year. Gives you Zach, Justin, Corey, Josh and one of the three yutes. I'm sure they'll find a reclamation project a la KaZmir or Pavano.

I'd rather spend that Ubaldo and Myers money on KaZmir and see if we can't get him for 3/24 or 2/15+ an option. He'd still be in line for a fat contract at 32 years old if he proves himself.


Wonder where Tomlin stands in the pecking order. It would help his case if he can make some September appearances, obviously in mop-up or blowout situations if we're in contention.

I love his makeup. His stuff is average at best. Much cheaper alternative to Ubaldo that would have a shot at putting up similar numbers. I would take 26 starts of a 4.25 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.03 xFIP like his 2011 campaign. That's good enough to be a 5th starter, especially with a team-friendly contract.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Jul 25, 2013 7:47 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
bookelly wrote:Don't forget the Little Cowboy is back next year. Gives you Zach, Justin, Corey, Josh and one of the three yutes. I'm sure they'll find a reclamation project a la KaZmir or Pavano.

I'd rather spend that Ubaldo and Myers money on KaZmir and see if we can't get him for 3/24 or 2/15+ an option. He'd still be in line for a fat contract at 32 years old if he proves himself.


Wonder where Tomlin stands in the pecking order. It would help his case if he can make some September appearances, obviously in mop-up or blowout situations if we're in contention.

I love his makeup. His stuff is average at best. Much cheaper alternative to Ubaldo that would have a shot at putting up similar numbers. I would take 26 starts of a 4.25 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 4.03 xFIP like his 2011 campaign. That's good enough to be a 5th starter, especially with a team-friendly contract.


Guy is a Quality Start machine. Didn't he set the record? Or tie it? All you can ask for out of the #5 is a QS...and the Little Cowboy delivers at 97%.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jul 25, 2013 8:04 pm

bookelly wrote:Guy is a Quality Start machine. Didn't he set the record? Or tie it? All you can ask for out of the #5 is a QS...and the Little Cowboy delivers at 97%.


Set the record for consecutive starts of 5 IP or more or something like that. Maybe consecutive starts of 5+ IP to begin a career. I don't really remember.

Quality start is 6+, 3 ER or less. Which sort of annoys me because 6 IP 3 ER is still a 4.50 ERA, which nobody considers to be a good ERA over the course of a season.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby Prosecutor » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:56 am

I think his contract was discussed before and the answer is that the 2014 option was voided when he was traded to Cleveland, so he's a free agent at the end of the season. Not 100% sure, but I think that's the situation.

Even with the option, I doubt the Tribe would give him $8 million next year.

But it's interesting that his ERA since June 1 is nearly a full run lower than Verlander's.

Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him).

Speaking of velocity, it's not unusual for pitchers to gain a little after recovering from TJ. I wonder if Tomlin will come back throwing a little harder. If so, he would be a legit option for the #5 spot.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:02 am

Prosecutor wrote:But it's interesting that his ERA since June 1 is nearly a full run lower than Verlander's.


Yeah, but Jimenez's June FIP (4.36) was ever so slightly lower than Verlander's (4.38). In July, however, Jimenez's is 5.37 and Verlander's is 4.64.

FIP is a much better way to evaluate pitchers than ERA.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:11 am

skatingtripods wrote:
bookelly wrote:Quality start is 6+, 3 ER or less. Which sort of annoys me because 6 IP 3 ER is still a 4.50 ERA, which nobody considers to be a good ERA over the course of a season.


If you get your team into the 6th only giving up 3 runs, you've put them in a position to win, although I would agree that 6IP and 2 ER might be more 'quality'. Most managers would be thrilled to get 6 and 3 out of their 3-5 starters every time out, though....
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby Prosecutor » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:18 am

skatingtripods wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:But it's interesting that his ERA since June 1 is nearly a full run lower than Verlander's.


Yeah, but Jimenez's June FIP (4.36) was ever so slightly lower than Verlander's (4.38). In July, however, Jimenez's is 5.37 and Verlander's is 4.64.

FIP is a much better way to evaluate pitchers than ERA.


So Ubaldo's FIP (4.36) is nearly a run higher than his actual ERA over that time period (3.42). You're saying that the Tribe's great defense is making his ERA much lower than it actually should be.

Wow. That's some defense.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby pup » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:19 am

skatingtripods wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:But it's interesting that his ERA since June 1 is nearly a full run lower than Verlander's.


Yeah, but Jimenez's June FIP (4.36) was ever so slightly lower than Verlander's (4.38). In July, however, Jimenez's is 5.37 and Verlander's is 4.64.

FIP is a much better way to evaluate pitchers than ERA.


Yes, because 7 runs without giving up a HR is better than 7 runs with a HR.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:21 am

WiscTribeFan wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
bookelly wrote:Quality start is 6+, 3 ER or less. Which sort of annoys me because 6 IP 3 ER is still a 4.50 ERA, which nobody considers to be a good ERA over the course of a season.


If you get your team into the 6th only giving up 3 runs, you've put them in a position to win, although I would agree that 6IP and 2 ER might be more 'quality'. Most managers would be thrilled to get 6 and 3 out of their 3-5 starters every time out, though....


No, I agree. I don't remember what the exact expression was for it, but I read an article about enhanced quality starts that were 7 IP and 2 ER or less.

You certainly have a good chance to win if you get 6 IP and 3 ER.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:25 am

Prosecutor wrote:So Ubaldo's FIP (4.36) is nearly a run higher than his actual ERA over that time period (3.42). You're saying that the Tribe's great defense is making his ERA much lower than it actually should be.

Wow. That's some defense.


Well, no, not necessarily.

In Trading Bases, Joe Peta talks about "cluster luck", which is situational hitting that far exceeds batting with the bases empty or is well above league average. It's something he looks for when predicting regression the following season for certain teams.

Jimenez's left on base rate in June was 84.1% and in July it is 80.5%. League average in the AL for starters is usually around 72%. Jimenez allowed 52 baserunners in 32 June innings and 34 in 20.2 so far in July. His June ERA was 3.09 and his July ERA is 3.92.

Remember when we used to dread Jimenez pitching out of the stretch?

Bases empty: .271/.353/.470
Men on: .213/.328/.329
RISP: .228/.343/.372

He's getting lucky.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby Prosecutor » Fri Jul 26, 2013 11:57 am

I'm writing a poem about the Indians and I'm trying to come up with something that rhymes with "cluster luck". Can anybody help me out?
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby TouchEmAllTime » Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:35 pm

Ubaldo's New Balance tennis shoes also make him hateable.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby Am I Here Again? » Fri Jul 26, 2013 3:03 pm

Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....


You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Rockie's Alex White May Be Charged With "Extreme DUI"

And his stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

And Drew Pomeranz Dropped to 0-4...

And HIS stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

Suddenly, when you see the auspicious careers of those two hot prospects the deal doesn't look all that sucky in the rear-view mirror.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Fri Jul 26, 2013 6:16 pm

Am I Here Again? wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....


You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Rockie's Alex White May Be Charged With "Extreme DUI"

And his stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

And Drew Pomeranz Dropped to 0-4...

And HIS stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

Suddenly, when you see the auspicious careers of those two hot prospects the deal doesn't look all that sucky in the rear-view mirror.



What those pitchers have done SINCE the trade doesn't change their value at the time of the trade.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby pup » Fri Jul 26, 2013 8:38 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
Am I Here Again? wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....


You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Rockie's Alex White May Be Charged With "Extreme DUI"

And his stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

And Drew Pomeranz Dropped to 0-4...

And HIS stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

Suddenly, when you see the auspicious careers of those two hot prospects the deal doesn't look all that sucky in the rear-view mirror.



What those pitchers have done SINCE the trade doesn't change their value at the time of the trade.


Which you know? Maybe their value outside of "cleveland farm system lovers" was exactly Ubaldo.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:00 pm

pup wrote:
dazindiansfanuk wrote:
Am I Here Again? wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....


You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Rockie's Alex White May Be Charged With "Extreme DUI"

And his stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

And Drew Pomeranz Dropped to 0-4...

And HIS stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

Suddenly, when you see the auspicious careers of those two hot prospects the deal doesn't look all that sucky in the rear-view mirror.



What those pitchers have done SINCE the trade doesn't change their value at the time of the trade.


Which you know? Maybe their value outside of "cleveland farm system lovers" was exactly Ubaldo.


Did I say their value was anything more than Ubaldo? All I said was their performance since the trade has no reflection on their value at the time of the trade.

For the record, I do think they overpaid..... but, my only point was when you trade prospects you're trading perceived Major League value which doesn't always equate to actual Major League results.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby pup » Fri Jul 26, 2013 9:37 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
pup wrote:
dazindiansfanuk wrote:
Am I Here Again? wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:...Verlander may be going through the same thing Ubaldo went through when his velocity slipped dramatically over a 2-3 year period (coinciding when the Indians gave up their top two pitching prospects for him)....


You say that like it's a bad thing. Since being traded the prospects pretty much are proving why we didn't lose out on that trade after all.

Rockie's Alex White May Be Charged With "Extreme DUI"

And his stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

And Drew Pomeranz Dropped to 0-4...

And HIS stats: http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?play ... evel='ALL'

Suddenly, when you see the auspicious careers of those two hot prospects the deal doesn't look all that sucky in the rear-view mirror.



What those pitchers have done SINCE the trade doesn't change their value at the time of the trade.


Which you know? Maybe their value outside of "cleveland farm system lovers" was exactly Ubaldo.


Did I say their value was anything more than Ubaldo? All I said was their performance since the trade has no reflection on their value at the time of the trade.

For the record, I do think they overpaid..... but, my only point was when you trade prospects you're trading perceived Major League value which doesn't always equate to actual Major League results.


Apologies. Thought you were saying Drew and Alex should have fetched a better return no matter how they are doing today.
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Re: Justin Verlander

Unread postby Am I Here Again? » Fri Jul 26, 2013 10:26 pm

dazindiansfanuk wrote:
Am I Here Again? wrote:....when you see the auspicious careers of those two hot prospects the deal doesn't look all that sucky in the rear-view mirror.

What those pitchers have done SINCE the trade doesn't change their value at the time of the trade.



I agree. BUT when you trade top prospects it is with the understanding that it could come back to bite you in the ass. AND you expect equal value on what you receive. I think most of us figured, after seeing how poorly Ubaldo pitched for us, that we got the short end of the stick. Fortunately, the two guys we gave up haven't fared any better. In hindsight we didn't get bit. That was my point. If that had happened, you can bet I would be as vociferous with my complaints as anyone else around here. Who knows, Pom & White just might suddenly find it. Or not. I'm sure we'll all be back here griping if they do. ;-) ;) :wink:

Wish I could remember how many pitching prospects actually succeed once they get to the majors but it's not a guarantee. Something like 1 out of 10 end up being good.
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