Text Size

Cleveland Indians & MLB

July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Talk Tribe, talk baseball in this forum.

Moderators: peeker643, swerb, pup, paulcousineau

July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby bac5665 » Sun Jul 21, 2013 4:04 pm

Masterson is pitching a great game. Thought we should have a game thread for him!

We are leading 6-0 in the 7nth, so so far so good.
User avatar
bac5665
 
Posts: 946
Joined: Thu Apr 09, 2009 5:15 pm
Location: Columbus Ohio
Favorite Player: Jason Kipnis
Least Favorite Player: Bug Selig

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby TouchEmAllTime » Sun Jul 21, 2013 4:46 pm

Thank goodness for Kipnis and Brantley right now.
Bring the NHL to C-Town.
User avatar
TouchEmAllTime
 
Posts: 1159
Joined: Tue Mar 03, 2009 3:43 pm
Location: Boardman
Favorite Player: James Haslam
Least Favorite Player: 2013 #1 Pick

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Jul 21, 2013 4:53 pm

Welp, shoulda been better, but we played like shit and didn't lose any ground. We avoid Iwakuma and Hernandez in Seattle, so we catch a break there.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Prosecutor » Sun Jul 21, 2013 10:16 pm

Like I said yesterday, Brantley should be hitting cleanup. He's by far the best hitter on the team with ducks on the pond and the numbers prove it. Another huge 2-out hit with RISP today.

We don't need a cleanup hitter who hits one HR a month, what we need is consistent hits with runners on base, and that's what Brantley has been delivering.

Stubbs should have dived for that ball instead of sliding. The Twins outfielders were making diving catches right and left the whole series, and there was also the HR stolen from Asdrubal. Best defensive outfield series I've ever seen. That Florimon guy has some series range at SS, too.

With just average defense the Tribe sweeps this series. Even Kipnis had an error today on top of the botched double play the night before. He's been rock solid all year.

I wonder when they're going to stop throwing him fastballs high and away.

Swisher finally got a hit. Reynolds - well, let's not get greedy.
Prosecutor
Plutonian Outliers
 
Posts: 2773
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 11:59 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby leadpipe » Sun Jul 21, 2013 10:38 pm

Prosecutor wrote:Like I said yesterday, Brantley should be hitting cleanup. He's by far the best hitter on the team with ducks on the pond and the numbers prove it. Another huge 2-out hit with RISP today.

We don't need a cleanup hitter who hits one HR a month, what we need is consistent hits with runners on base, and that's what Brantley has been delivering.

Stubbs should have dived for that ball instead of sliding. The Twins outfielders were making diving catches right and left the whole series, and there was also the HR stolen from Asdrubal. Best defensive outfield series I've ever seen. That Florimon guy has some series range at SS, too.

With just average defense the Tribe sweeps this series. Even Kipnis had an error today on top of the botched double play the night before. He's been rock solid all year.

I wonder when they're going to stop throwing him fastballs high and away.

Swisher finally got a hit. Reynolds - well, let's not get greedy.


If Brantley is hitting clean-up for you, you aren't winning a thing.

And it ain't up to Brantley.
User avatar
leadpipe
The Reverend
 
Posts: 6504
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:58 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:02 am

leadpipe wrote:If Brantley is hitting clean-up for you, you aren't winning a thing.

And it ain't up to Brantley.


Brantley with runners on: .336. With runners in scoring position: .370
Swisher with runners on: .241. With runners in scoring position: .218

I think the job description of a clean-up hitter is to "clean up" the bases, meaning to knock runners in. Based on his ability to hit with runners on, he's our best bet to bat clean-up this year.

Of course if you prefer someone else, go ahead and make your case.

Or you could just make pompous statements unsupported by any facts, as usual.

By the way, Swisher has a bad shoulder. He was out a couple of weeks. He's been getting cortisone shots. He has 31 RBI's and we're two-thirds of the way through the season. He usually gets 80-90. Francona says he won't be 100% the rest of the year. But he's still hitting clean-up. Somebody explain that to me.
Prosecutor
Plutonian Outliers
 
Posts: 2773
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 11:59 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby leadpipe » Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:47 am

Prosecutor wrote:
leadpipe wrote:If Brantley is hitting clean-up for you, you aren't winning a thing.

And it ain't up to Brantley.


Brantley with runners on: .336. With runners in scoring position: .370
Swisher with runners on: .241. With runners in scoring position: .218

I think the job description of a clean-up hitter is to "clean up" the bases, meaning to knock runners in. Based on his ability to hit with runners on, he's our best bet to bat clean-up this year.

Of course if you prefer someone else, go ahead and make your case.

Or you could just make pompous statements unsupported by any facts, as usual.

By the way, Swisher has a bad shoulder. He was out a couple of weeks. He's been getting cortisone shots. He has 31 RBI's and we're two-thirds of the way through the season. He usually gets 80-90. Francona says he won't be 100% the rest of the year. But he's still hitting clean-up. Somebody explain that to me.


I said, it ain't on Brantley.

There may not be a better option BUT IF THAT'S THE CASE YOU ARE IN TROUBLE.

Pompous? Facts?

You take the guy with 5 years, 23 dongs, less than 200 RBI's, slugs at .378 OBP at .328 and ops topping at about .700......you go ahead and hit that guy clean-up on an offense that isn't a complete joke.

I've got plently more facts if you want them. Just cause I don't come on here every morning and regurgitate obvious shit we've all seen the day before and pretend I know something, doesn't mean I'm devoid of fact.

Want another one? Perhaps Branley is the one guy that found the magic pill that allows him to magically hit better with guys in scoring position. Or maybe...just maybe...he's the one F'ing guy that can "turn it on" when guys are on base. "Mr. Clutch - for the first time in....forever. Amazing how he's always done that, yet has never driven in more than 60.

Probably cause he never hit clean-up....to "clean-up" the bases. Christ.

Or, maybe he'll come back to the mean like everyone else on GGE and your stuck with a real average guy hitting where every other team has a horse.

Read and comprehend before you jump Pros.
User avatar
leadpipe
The Reverend
 
Posts: 6504
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:58 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 22, 2013 9:14 am

Prosecutor wrote:Of course if you prefer someone else, go ahead and make your case.


Since I'm not going to even begin to try and make a case for singles hitter Michael Brantley batting cleanup, the logical replacement for Swisher would be Santana.

Swisher should be batting second. Would completely change his mindset and job description. Would be the best place for him. I'd love to see Francona make that change. Drop Cabrera down to sixth or seventh. Leave Brantley fifth for the time being since nobody else at the bottom of the order is consistently producing.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:31 am

Saw on one of the beat writer's Twitter feeds yesterday (can't remember which one) that Francona has been toying with the idea of moving Swisher to second in the lineup, but he doesn't like what that does to the rest of the lineup. I'd say at this point, though, screw it...what's the harm in trying it out?
User avatar
Adverb Harry
 
Posts: 952
Joined: Mon Mar 17, 2008 5:30 pm
Location: Souvenir City
Favorite Player: Jason Kipnis
Least Favorite Player: Ubaldo, Bud Selig

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 22, 2013 12:57 pm

Yeah, I saw that too, Harry. Francona thinks Swisher can get on base a lot and would make a good #2 hitter. Not a bad idea - his OBP is .345 which is 40 points higher than Cabrera. But Swisher isn't 100% and Cabrera is due to have a strong second half. It might work. One thing we know is that Swisher isn't getting it done hitting clean-up, and Tito made the point that he never had to do that with the Yankees but thrived as more of a complementary player.

I thought about Santana hitting clean-up but I read that the Indians felt they were putting too much pressure on him last year to catch and also hit clean-up, and he got a little overwelmed.

2012

Santana hitting 4th: .236/744 (297 AB's)
Santana hitting 5th: .301/917 (136 AB's)

2013

Santana hitting 4th: .211 avg, but a .400 OBP
Santana hitting 5th: .279
Santana hitting 6th: .274

Historically he hits better when he's hitting behind the clean-up spot. This year he's been walked a lot in the 4 hole, so maybe having Santana 4th and Brantley 5th would work very well. However, Santana's batting average has been 60-70 points higher batting 5th or 6th, so it appears he is better not hitting clean-up.

I understand that Brantley does not fit the classic profile of a clean-up hitter. Neither does Swisher. And he's never hit clean-up before, AFAIK. But there's no disputing that this year Brantley has been outstanding with runners on. Nothing wrong with having your clean-up hitter bat .370 with RISP while waiting for the next Miggy Cabrera to emerge from you farm system, even if most of those hits are singles.

Glad to see leadpipe agreeing that Brantley may be the best option at #4. I agree with pipe that with Brantley hitting clean-up we aren't winning a thing, no division title, AL Championship, nothing. But we'll win more games than we would with Reynolds or Swisher or Santana hitting there.

Brantley has made steady improvement each year and he's just coming into his prime. A good example is yesterday with the bases loaded he swung and missed a breaking ball down and in. Diamond tried the same pitch again and Brantley ripped a triple into the gap to blow the game open. The announcers made the point that Diamond got him the first time but Brantley knew he was coming back to that pitch and was ready for it.

Sometimes it takes players a few years to figure it out. I don't believe in magic pills. I believe in the benefit of experience. Which is why I don't look at his career numbers, I look at what he's doing right now.
Prosecutor
Plutonian Outliers
 
Posts: 2773
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 11:59 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby bac5665 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 1:39 pm

If moving Brants to cleanup makes us better, do it. This team is on the cusp. We need to make any and all improvements to get better.

Fuck not doing it because previous winning teams don't have guys like Brants in the clean up spot. That's loser talk. We are a team that is close. Make marginal improvements and we'll get closer. That's all there is to do.
User avatar
bac5665
 
Posts: 946
Joined: Thu Apr 09, 2009 5:15 pm
Location: Columbus Ohio
Favorite Player: Jason Kipnis
Least Favorite Player: Bug Selig

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby peeker643 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:00 pm

Prosecutor wrote:....Cabrera is due to have a strong second half.


Why would anyone who's watched or followed Cabrera's career statistically say this?

Is it because of Cabrera's shitty first half or the fact that he's historically been worse in the 2nd half than in the first?

Fewer hits, runs, 2bls, triples, HR, RBI, SBs, SLG and OPS in the 2nd half and markedly so in last few years.

And Brantley's hit in every spot in the lineup. The cleanup spot is historically the 2nd worse spot you can put him in after the 2-hole.

Work on eliminating the two or three gaping holes you have in the lineup and it won't matter. The team is mediocre. That's fine and it's a step beyond where they were a year ago. But they need more talent. And I'd start with buying a shovel, hitting Mark Reynolds in the head with it, and then using the shovel to bury Reynolds in a shallow grave somewhere in Wayne County.
"Great minds think alike. The opposite is also true."

"None of us is as dumb as all of us."


I'm on Twitter at http://twitter.com/peeker643
User avatar
peeker643
Duly Noted
 
Posts: 22489
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Smokey Rowe
Least Favorite Player: Dingle Stetson

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:02 pm

I can sense it now. This Micheal Brantley 4 hole discussion is about get a player A and Player B comparison post.
Alex White: Just like School on Sunday......No Class.
User avatar
Dnthateonthepronk
 
Posts: 1819
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 12:57 pm
Location: Virginia Beach
Favorite Player: Dan Marino
Least Favorite Player: Alex Rodriguez

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:04 pm

Whether Cabrera's due to have a strong second half or not is irrelevant. He's not a #2 hitter. He doesn't walk. He doesn't have good bat control this season. Swisher may not be 100%, but your entire endgame changes when you're batting second. His swing is too long and too violent batting cleanup because he's trying to drive in runs. Batting second, your job is to get on base. Period.

Often times, hitting with RISP will normalize throughout the season. It's unlikely that Brantley, who is batting .232/.294/.325/.619 with nobody on will continue batting .336/.379/.470/.848 (men on base) or .370/.416/.507/.923 (RISP). It's an anomaly. His BABIP with RISP is .361. Totally unsustainable for him.

It's honestly surprising to look at his career splits overall, and while I grant that he's hit better with men on and even better with RISP over his career, he's definitely overachieving in both categories this season, even compared to his career stats.

You can make the argument to cash in on it while it's working, but I'm not entirely sure how much longer he can sustain this.

Brantley's a nice player who is having a good season because of when his hits are coming. That doesn't mean he's a cleanup hitter.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:19 pm

The best hitter on your team is supposed to be in the 2 hole, per every sabermetrician. The gains are miniscule on a per game basis, but over the course of the season that can translate in to 2 more wins, which can be the difference between the playoffs and staying home. Ergo, Kipnis should be hitting #2.

Hitting with RISP is not a skill, it is a fluke that normalizes. Allan Craig is not the most clutch hitter of all time. And once it gets in your head that a guy is either clutch or unclutch, confirmation bias kicks in and you'll only remember the times that he was clutch/unclutch.
User avatar
CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07!
 
Posts: 1913
Joined: Tue May 22, 2007 12:39 pm
Location: Brooklyn
Favorite Player: Troy Smith
Least Favorite Player: Braylon/Hughes/Pryor

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby peeker643 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:22 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Whether Cabrera's due to have a strong second half or not is irrelevant. He's not a #2 hitter. He doesn't walk. He doesn't have good bat control this season. Swisher may not be 100%, but your entire endgame changes when you're batting second. His swing is too long and too violent batting cleanup because he's trying to drive in runs. Batting second, your job is to get on base. Period.

Often times, hitting with RISP will normalize throughout the season. It's unlikely that Brantley, who is batting .232/.294/.325/.619 with nobody on will continue batting .336/.379/.470/.848 (men on base) or .370/.416/.507/.923 (RISP). It's an anomaly. His BABIP with RISP is .361. Totally unsustainable for him.

It's honestly surprising to look at his career splits overall, and while I grant that he's hit better with men on and even better with RISP over his career, he's definitely overachieving in both categories this season, even compared to his career stats.

You can make the argument to cash in on it while it's working, but I'm not entirely sure how much longer he can sustain this.

Brantley's a nice player who is having a good season because of when his hits are coming. That doesn't mean he's a cleanup hitter.


To be clear, I'm not arguing that Cabrera should hit in any particular spot. I'm arguing the "He's due!!!" analysis that's apparently now the source of reason behind wherever Francona puts him.

Brantley is not a 4-hitter over the long haul but I will say that the older he gets and the more ABs he gets the more refined his approach gets. He's a solid player and a offers a solid MLB AB the vast majority of the time. Love to just pencil him into the 7th or 8th spot and leave him alone. But he's certainly not special. I'll be as 'meh' when he leaves as I am while he's here. That's not to say I haven't enjoyed his success with RiSP this season.
"Great minds think alike. The opposite is also true."

"None of us is as dumb as all of us."


I'm on Twitter at http://twitter.com/peeker643
User avatar
peeker643
Duly Noted
 
Posts: 22489
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2007 1:33 pm
Favorite Player: Smokey Rowe
Least Favorite Player: Dingle Stetson

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:26 pm

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:36 pm

skatingtripods wrote:http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Yeah well, on a fully healthy $250M team, Nick Punto batted 2nd yesterday. Grit FTW.
User avatar
CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07!
 
Posts: 1913
Joined: Tue May 22, 2007 12:39 pm
Location: Brooklyn
Favorite Player: Troy Smith
Least Favorite Player: Braylon/Hughes/Pryor

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 22, 2013 2:59 pm

peeker643 wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:....Cabrera is due to have a strong second half.


Why would anyone who's watched or followed Cabrera's career statistically say this?

Is it because of Cabrera's shitty first half or the fact that he's historically been worse in the 2nd half than in the first?

Fewer hits, runs, 2bls, triples, HR, RBI, SBs, SLG and OPS in the 2nd half and markedly so in last few years.

I stole that from Nino Colla's column on the home page "Can the Indians Be Better in the Second Half? Here's what he said,

"Speaking of, Cabrera has obviously not had the season you would hope for. If he did, I'd love to see how dangerous this offense would be. He's still been productive though. Here's the good news. He has 360 career RBI and 43 percent of those have come in August and September. The other 57 percent in the first four months of the season. So this is a second-half type of player. His career averages in August and September are higher, his production numbers are solid, so I would expect Cabrera to find his way and be a big part of this lineup again."

Whether Colla is right is questionable based on the evidence you produced. But Droobs has hit some line drives the last few games and I choose to be optimistic. However, I acknowledge the real possibility he may suck in the second half. It might depend on whether his leg acts up again.

By the way, thanks for framing your objection in the form of a question instead of just calling me an idiot.


And Brantley's hit in every spot in the lineup. The cleanup spot is historically the 2nd worse spot you can put him in after the 2-hole.

Good point. I just think he's evolving year by year into a better hitter. And his power is increasing. He's had two games this year where he's homered twice, and that never happened before.

Work on eliminating the two or three gaping holes you have in the lineup and it won't matter. The team is mediocre. That's fine and it's a step beyond where they were a year ago. But they need more talent. And I'd start with buying a shovel, hitting Mark Reynolds in the head with it, and then using the shovel to bury Reynolds in a shallow grave somewhere in Wayne County.

Agree the team is mediocre, but I do think that if you put your hitters in the best possible order you'll score more than if you don't. Which might mean the difference between sneaking into the playoffs or not.

If we do sneak in, all we need is one game where Masterson throws the ball like yesterday and we're looking at an actual playoff series. Which I'll be more than happy with, regardless of the outcome.

Agree on Mark Reynolds. Until he goes on another hot streak, that is.

Prosecutor
Plutonian Outliers
 
Posts: 2773
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 11:59 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:17 pm

From the Book linked by tripods:

Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability


Indians' OBP this year:

Kipnis .386
Santana .381
Swisher .345
Bourn .332
Brantley .332
Droobs .305

So the sabermetricians say we should have Kip lead off, Swisher hit 2nd, Brantley 3rd, Santana 4th, Bourn 5th, Cabrera 6th, followed by Chisenhall, Reynolds and Stubbs. Or Bourn 3rd and Brantley 5th.

I don't think we'll see that lineup anytime soon.
Prosecutor
Plutonian Outliers
 
Posts: 2773
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 11:59 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby bac5665 » Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:19 pm

That lineup looks pretty good to me, actually. Biggest problem by far is whether or not Santana can take the pressure of the 4 spot.
User avatar
bac5665
 
Posts: 946
Joined: Thu Apr 09, 2009 5:15 pm
Location: Columbus Ohio
Favorite Player: Jason Kipnis
Least Favorite Player: Bug Selig

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 22, 2013 3:44 pm

Prosecutor wrote:From the Book linked by tripods:

Here's how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he's a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability


Indians' OBP this year:

Kipnis .386
Santana .381
Swisher .345
Bourn .332
Brantley .332
Droobs .305

So the sabermetricians say we should have Kip lead off, Swisher hit 2nd, Brantley 3rd, Santana 4th, Bourn 5th, Cabrera 6th, followed by Chisenhall, Reynolds and Stubbs. Or Bourn 3rd and Brantley 5th.

I don't think we'll see that lineup anytime soon.


It's not a concrete definition. It's food for thought. I'd like to see Tom Tango's actual research rather than just a cliff notes version of what he says in the book.

A lot of sabermetric stuff is theoretical based. Real-life applications don't always apply, and I'm big into the analytical side. If you followed the definition above exactly, Miguel Cabrera should bat leadoff for the Tigers because he has the highest OBP. Obviously, nobody is ever going to do that. Similarly, Michael Bourn would never be your #3 hitter.

The point, Pros, is this. The idea is to maximize your batting order according to the makeup of your team. The reason #3 falls below #1, 2, 4 is because #3 comes up the most with two outs and nobody on. Lineup construction is based off of run expectancy, and, obviously, run expectancy is the lowest with two outs and nobody on. #1 is the catalyst. #2 is the guy that needs to get on base to set it up for #3, 4, 5.

In an ideal world, with the ideal team, your goal should be to set OBP in that order. But, again, it's a theoretical thing where a real world application isn't always plausible for a number of reasons.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 22, 2013 6:03 pm

Swisher in the 2 hole. Yay.

Cabrera batting cleanup. Ugh.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 22, 2013 6:43 pm

In an ideal world, with the ideal team, your goal should be to set OBP in that order. But, again, it's a theoretical thing where a real world application isn't always plausible for a number of reasons.


One of which is that some players put too much pressure on themselves if they're batting in key positions in the lineup. Stubbs is hitting for a higher average now that he's batting 9th and wasn't under pressure to set the table like he was last year in Cincy.

So it's possible Brantley's ability to hit with RISP might drop if he were hitting 4th. But he just seems like the kind of player who can lock in and not let something like that get to him. I just hate seeing Swisher right in the middle of the lineup when he's not 100% physically and he's not hitting.
Prosecutor
Plutonian Outliers
 
Posts: 2773
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 11:59 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 22, 2013 6:58 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Swisher in the 2 hole. Yay.

Cabrera batting cleanup. Ugh.


Pretty sure he wants a SH there and with Swish at #2 and the reluctance to put Santana there due to 'pressure' we're left with Droobs. Not my ideal, but I see the logic behind it certainly.

I'd like to see Carlos there in the 4. Guy would be a walk machine.
Nobody, I mean nobody, voluntarily becomes a Cleveland sports fan.

"This team could fuck up a ham sandwich." -CDT
User avatar
bookelly
Happy Easter!!
 
Posts: 3342
Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2007 11:58 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA
Favorite Player: My bunny hunny
Least Favorite Player: Elmer Fudd

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 22, 2013 8:04 pm

Prosecutor wrote:
In an ideal world, with the ideal team, your goal should be to set OBP in that order. But, again, it's a theoretical thing where a real world application isn't always plausible for a number of reasons.


One of which is that some players put too much pressure on themselves if they're batting in key positions in the lineup. Stubbs is hitting for a higher average now that he's batting 9th and wasn't under pressure to set the table like he was last year in Cincy.

So it's possible Brantley's ability to hit with RISP might drop if he were hitting 4th. But he just seems like the kind of player who can lock in and not let something like that get to him. I just hate seeing Swisher right in the middle of the lineup when he's not 100% physically and he's not hitting.


Stubbs batting 9th or 1st has nothing to do with pressure. His BABIP is 42 points higher than last season, so, as a result, his average is 30 points higher. His line drive rate has normalized because pitchers are attacking him differently. But it has nothing to do with pressure.

No, Brantley's approach doesn't change whether he's hitting 1st, 4th, or 9th. He has one of the five best swinging strike rates in MLB over the last four years. But, still, there's no denying that he's in line for regression batting with RISP. I hope it doesn't happen, but, as I said above, what he's currently doing in those situations is unsustainable.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:11 pm

and Swisher in the 2 hole
Alex White: Just like School on Sunday......No Class.
User avatar
Dnthateonthepronk
 
Posts: 1819
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2011 12:57 pm
Location: Virginia Beach
Favorite Player: Dan Marino
Least Favorite Player: Alex Rodriguez

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby skatingtripods » Mon Jul 22, 2013 10:14 pm

Excellent AB, great result from Swisher.

That's good to see.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby leadpipe » Mon Jul 22, 2013 11:15 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:
In an ideal world, with the ideal team, your goal should be to set OBP in that order. But, again, it's a theoretical thing where a real world application isn't always plausible for a number of reasons.


One of which is that some players put too much pressure on themselves if they're batting in key positions in the lineup. Stubbs is hitting for a higher average now that he's batting 9th and wasn't under pressure to set the table like he was last year in Cincy.

So it's possible Brantley's ability to hit with RISP might drop if he were hitting 4th. But he just seems like the kind of player who can lock in and not let something like that get to him. I just hate seeing Swisher right in the middle of the lineup when he's not 100% physically and he's not hitting.


Stubbs batting 9th or 1st has nothing to do with pressure. His BABIP is 42 points higher than last season, so, as a result, his average is 30 points higher. His line drive rate has normalized because pitchers are attacking him differently. But it has nothing to do with pressure.

No, Brantley's approach doesn't change whether he's hitting 1st, 4th, or 9th. He has one of the five best swinging strike rates in MLB over the last four years. But, still, there's no denying that he's in line for regression batting with RISP. I hope it doesn't happen, but, as I said above, what he's currently doing in those situations is unsustainable.


If a guy has a problem hitting in a particular spot in the order, it's cause they ain't good in the first place.

Hit Miggy Cabrera 12th, and he's gonna hit. Hit Jack Hanahan third, and he's not.
User avatar
leadpipe
The Reverend
 
Posts: 6504
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:58 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Prosecutor » Tue Jul 23, 2013 7:10 am

Stubbs batting 9th or 1st has nothing to do with pressure. His BABIP is 42 points higher than last season, so, as a result, his average is 30 points higher. His line drive rate has normalized because pitchers are attacking him differently. But it has nothing to do with pressure.


Could be, and I honestly don't know why his BABIP is higher. Pitchers are attacking him differently? Why? He hit something like .213 last year, why would they suddenly start attacking him differently? If it ain't broke...

My theory is that leadoff hitters feel they're responsible for trying to work a walk and also give the following hitters a chance to see some pitches before they bat, so they tend to take more pitches. That's what Brantley said about hitting leadoff. As a result they fall behind in the count a lot and are forced to expand the strike zone.

When Stubbs is hitting 9th he can just swing at the first good pitch he sees, so he's making better contact and more of his batted balls are falling in.

With the Reds he was a top draft pick with pressure to justify his selection. With the Indians he's just a throw-in in the Bauer deal and he's hitting 9th, so there's no pressure.

That being said, he's still a poor offensive player, especially for a corner outfielder. He's on borrowed time. His best role is as a pinch runner and late inning defensive replacement.
Prosecutor
Plutonian Outliers
 
Posts: 2773
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 11:59 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Jul 23, 2013 8:51 am

Prosecutor wrote:Could be, and I honestly don't know why his BABIP is higher. Pitchers are attacking him differently? Why? He hit something like .213 last year, why would they suddenly start attacking him differently? If it ain't broke...


Guys like him and Bourn have higher BABIPs because they can beat out ground balls for hits. He had a pathetic 14.9% line drive rate last year. It's still below league average this year at 18.9%. League average tends to be around 20%.
A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe
User avatar
skatingtripods
Sloth Duncan
 
Posts: 14346
Joined: Tue May 01, 2007 12:27 pm
Location: Cleveland
Favorite Player: Mike Aviles
Least Favorite Player: Every Detroit Tiger

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Jul 23, 2013 9:01 am

skatingtripods wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:Could be, and I honestly don't know why his BABIP is higher. Pitchers are attacking him differently? Why? He hit something like .213 last year, why would they suddenly start attacking him differently? If it ain't broke...


Guys like him and Bourn have higher BABIPs because they can beat out ground balls for hits. He had a pathetic 14.9% line drive rate last year. It's still below league average this year at 18.9%. League average tends to be around 20%.


Again, a pretty big deal for this offense was having to play Swisher at first - a premium offensive position - and having Stubbs in the line-up.

Chisenhall starting slow, and Reynolds not being worth a shit started a chain of events that's hurting the team. One thing the Tribe had to counteract the obvious problems they were gonna have in situational hitting was the fact at least it looked like they weren't going to have to give major at bats to the Zeke Carrerra's, Trevor Crowes, Jack Hanahans of the world.

At the end of the day, Stubbs stinks, and speed and defense don't cut it at a corner outfield slot.
User avatar
leadpipe
The Reverend
 
Posts: 6504
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:58 am

Re: July 21, Indians @ Twins: Masty pitches good

Unread postby Prosecutor » Tue Jul 23, 2013 12:28 pm

The Bourn/Brantley/Stubbs outfield is better than what we had out there last year, but I agree that Stubbs is a placeholder. But he might stick around a couple of years until Naquin or Frazier or Moncrief is ready.

It's frustrating. With just average defense and a little offense the Tribe could easily be 4-0 coming out of the break. Three losses by scores of 3-2, 3-2, and 2-1, with defensive lapses figuring big in two of those losses. But like Tito said, as long as the starting pitching continues like this they'll be OK.
Prosecutor
Plutonian Outliers
 
Posts: 2773
Joined: Mon May 21, 2007 11:59 am


Return to Cleveland Indians & MLB

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: ASPDawgpound12, gbot and 2 guests

Who is online

In total there are 4 users online :: 2 registered, 0 hidden and 2 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 181 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 4:50 pm

Users browsing this forum: ASPDawgpound12, gbot and 2 guests