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Second half schedule

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Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Fri Jul 12, 2013 7:21 am

As of today the Indians have 70 games remaining. 19 are against teams with winning records; 51 are against sub-.500 teams.

The breakdown of the 19 games against winning teams:

7 games against Detroit
3 against Texas
3 against Atlanta
3 against Oakland
3 against Baltimore

I should mention that they also play six games against the Angels, who are 44-46 right now but they've won 7 of their last 10 and are coming on strong. They could easily be above .500 by the time we play them.

Still, 51 out of 70 games against sub-.500 teams means the Tribe has a shot at 90 wins. They'd have to go 42-28 but considering how well they've played against weak teams so far I think it's doable.

The last 23 games of the year are against sub-.500 teams, mainly the Twins, KC, and the White Sox, so the Tribe has a chance to finish strong. If they can stay in contention for a wild card spot up until the final month they have a real shot at making the playoffs.

With McAllister about ready to return and Salazar available in Columbus, the starting pitching should be solid. They just need to fix the bullpen. The key is for Pestano and Rage to get back to where they were last year, if possible.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby bookelly » Fri Jul 12, 2013 5:50 pm

All that really matters is those games against Detroit. We won't make the WC this year. Too many good teams, better teams honestly, ahead of us. We need to beat Detroit and that's gonna be a tall order.

I'd like us to go get that frontline starter and consider moving KaZmir to the pen. I know he's been effective as a starter, and I like having that lefty in the rotation, but the biggest weakness by far on this team is that LOOGY that for certain is not Hill or Hags. Kaz might be more valuable as that guy who gets the Fielder's or Hamilton's of the world out in high leverage situations. Especially if we acquire a legit #2 starter.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby mattvan1 » Fri Jul 12, 2013 6:19 pm

bookelly wrote:All that really matters is those games against Detroit. We won't make the WC this year. Too many good teams, better teams honestly, ahead of us. We need to beat Detroit and that's gonna be a tall order.


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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Am I Here Again? » Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:31 pm

Prosecutor wrote:.....The last 23 games of the year are against sub-.500 teams, mainly the Twins, KC, and the White Sox, so the Tribe has a chance to finish strong. If they can stay in contention for a wild card spot up until the final month they have a real shot at making the playoffs....


I like your enthusiasm; kudos for the optimism. Right now the Tribe is 5th in the wild card, 3 1/2 back. But talk to me in about 8 or 9 weeks.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby 1Perry » Fri Jul 12, 2013 11:19 pm

If they can find a way to beat Detroit they have a shot. If not they don't. Yes that's stating the obvious but that's pretty much all there is to it.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Sat Jul 13, 2013 11:55 am

The Tribe is 3.5 games behind the Rays for the second wild card spot with 69 games to go. The Rays are in the same division with three teams that are at least nine games over .500, plus the Blue Jays who are 44-48. Those teams in the East are going to be beating each other up the rest of the year while the Tribe is feasting on the Twins, Royals, and White Sox.

Can they make up 3.5 games? Absolutely, especially given the huge advantage they have with the schedule. Oh, and the Yankees just lost Hafner and Gardner to injuries and Jeter's comeback lasted exactly one game.

I'm not saying they'll get in, but to say they have no shot other than beating Detroit is short-sighted, IMO. All year they've been beating the bad teams and losing to the good teams. Well, they have very few remaining games against good teams, so if they kept beating the losers they have a decent shot.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:04 pm

Here are the over .500 teams Tampa has to play and the number of games:

Yankees 9
Red Sox 7
Orioles 7
D-Backs 4
A's 3
Rangers 3

Total: 33 games against over .500 teams.

They also have 9 games against Toronto (just under .500), 3 against the Dodgers (46-46), and 6 against the Angels (just under .500). That's the easy part of their schedule, except for a handful of games against the Mariners and Twins. Their schedule is brutal compared to the Indians.

I'm sure it's pretty much the same for the Yankees and Orioles. So if we assume Oakland or Texas wins the West and the other gets one wild card spot, the Tribe just has to beat out the O's, Rays, and Yankees to get the other.

This is nuts, but I would love to see an Indians/Pirates World Series. Wouldn't that stand baseball on it's head?
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby kman_holla8 » Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:35 pm

bookelly wrote: Especially if we acquire a legit #2 starter.


Could Bud Norris from Houston be the legit #2?....6.39k's per 9 innings
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Jul 13, 2013 12:42 pm

kman_holla8 wrote:
bookelly wrote: Especially if we acquire a legit #2 starter.


Could Bud Norris from Houston be the legit #2?....6.39k's per 9 innings


Bud Norris is an odd case.

Career home: 21-17, 3.27, 1.28, .239
Career road: 13-28, 5.46, 1.55, .283

Buyer beware. Minute Maid's a decent hitter's park, not spectacular. But those home/road splits are ugly. This is actually Norris's worst career K/9 season. His career rate is 8.42.

You may be able to get by for half a season since most AL teams haven't seen much of him, but he's had a career 4.29 in the NL. Not sure he's much of an upgrade over what we've got.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Sat Jul 13, 2013 5:52 pm

Norris has been pitching great. In his last outing he got lit up for 7 ER's in 5 innings by the Cardinals, but in the nine starts prior to that he gave up a total of 15 ER's, going either 6 or 7 innings each start.

I still wouldn't give up Lindor or Salazar for him. I'd give up Bauer or Carrasco, though. And throw in Ubaldo or Kazmir. We need to open up a spot in the rotation and both these guys will be leaving at the end of the year anyway. And let them have their pick of any player in the farm system except Lindor, Salazar, or Frazier.

Masterson, Norris, McAllister, Kluber, and Ubaldo or Kazmir would be the new rotation. We'd still have Salazar and either Bauer or Carrasco.

From MLB Trade Rumors:

In his latest Scouts Corner column, CBS Sports' Danny Knobler cites an executive who suggests that the Astros' Bud Norris could be the next starting pitcher to be traded. "He's got good stuff. It's about the consistency of command. I think most contending teams will see him as a fourth starter. The problem is they're going to ask a lot for him," a scout tells Knobler.

Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com wrote earlier tonight that the asking price is high for Norris as Houston is seeking two highly-rated prospects in return.

An executive on the hunt for pitching tells Andy Martino of the New York Daily News that the Astros' Norris is basically one of three decent available starters right now. The others are the Cubs' Matt Garza and Yovani Gallardo of the Brewers. The asking price for all three is really high, according to the exec, which is consistent with what we've been hearing.


Norris is arbitration eligible for the next two years so the Tribe would control him through 2015. Is he worth giving up two "highly-rated" prospects for? Do we have two prospects the Astros would accept and that we would be willing to give up?

Those home/road splits are disturbing.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby leadpipe » Sat Jul 13, 2013 6:51 pm

Prosecutor wrote:The Tribe is 3.5 games behind the Rays for the second wild card spot with 69 games to go. The Rays are in the same division with three teams that are at least nine games over .500, plus the Blue Jays who are 44-48. Those teams in the East are going to be beating each other up the rest of the year while the Tribe is feasting on the Twins, Royals, and White Sox.

Can they make up 3.5 games? Absolutely, especially given the huge advantage they have with the schedule. Oh, and the Yankees just lost Hafner and Gardner to injuries and Jeter's comeback lasted exactly one game.

I'm not saying they'll get in, but to say they have no shot other than beating Detroit is short-sighted, IMO. All year they've been beating the bad teams and losing to the good teams. Well, they have very few remaining games against good teams, so if they kept beating the losers they have a decent shot.


There's a huge difference between being 4 games behind one team, or being 4 games behind one team, with four teams in between.

Huge.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby 1Perry » Sat Jul 13, 2013 7:39 pm

Leadpipe is correct and they are 2-10 against Detroit so even if you believe they have a real shot at the WC they still have to figure a way to beat Detriot.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Sun Jul 14, 2013 6:55 am

leadpipe wrote:[

There's a huge difference between being 4 games behind one team, or being 4 games behind one team, with four teams in between.

Huge.


The Indians have 50 wins. The Rays, O's, and Yankees have 54, 52, and 51. You are correct in that the Indians would have to finish with a better record than all three of them, assuming Texas or Oakland grabs one wild card spot. I agree - they're not just chasing one team.

My point is that those three teams will be playing a lot of games against each other in the second half, not to mention games against the 58-38 Red Sox, who the Indians avoid entirely. And games against the 45-48 Blue Jays, the last place team in the East, who are a lot better than the Twins, Royals, and White Sox.

They also have games against the Dodgers who have won something like 17 of their last 20.

I'm not saying the Indians are a lock for the playoffs, but given the ridiculous disparity in strength of schedule and the consistency in which they've been beating sub.-500 teams, they have a realistic shot.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Jul 14, 2013 8:32 pm

The chances at the wild card are so slim that it's almost not even worth looking at. It's all well and good that the Indians play stiffs, but the teams in the wild card hunt, specifically the AL East, are going to be playing each other. No matter who wins, if they're still ahead of the Indians, we won't gain any ground.

Central or bust.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby leadpipe » Sun Jul 14, 2013 9:13 pm

skatingtripods wrote:The chances at the wild card are so slim that it's almost not even worth looking at. It's all well and good that the Indians play stiffs, but the teams in the wild card hunt, specifically the AL East, are going to be playing each other. No matter who wins, if they're still ahead of the Indians, we won't gain any ground.

Central or bust.


That's what I'm trying to explain to Pro's. When ya got several teams in between, you got much bigger issues than with one.

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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby YahooFanChicago » Sun Jul 14, 2013 10:07 pm

The Tigers are good and when you look at their roster and run differential it is surprising that they are only 1.5 games ahead of us. They have been consistently kicking our ass and I believe they currently have a much better team then we do.

As mentioned, it is difficult to overtake 3 teams for the wildcard. There are essentially 5 teams competing for 2 spots (Rays, Rangers, Orioles, Yankees and Indians). I believe Pros does have a valid point that we have a very favorable/easy schedule compared to the 3 teams in the East.

Unless we make a good trade and pick-up a dependable FOR starter and some bullpen help (LOOGY) I don't think we make the playoffs. That said, if we do make the playoffs I think it will be via a wildcard spot since I think by the end of the year the Tigers will have the best record in the AL.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby 1Perry » Sun Jul 14, 2013 10:35 pm

YahooFanChicago wrote:The Tigers are good and when you look at their roster and run differential it is surprising that they are only 1.5 games ahead of us. They have been consistently kicking our ass and I believe they currently have a much better team then we do.


I also believe they are a better team but if the Indians would have been able to play them at even a .400 clip they would be in first.

The point about the schedule is valid and the reason the Indians do have at least a shot but they have to be able to beat Detroit.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 15, 2013 3:18 pm

I don't get what's so hard to understand about the fact that three of the teams the Tribe is competing with are in the same division and will play a lot of games against each other. There are no ties in baseball, so somebody in contention with the Tribe is going to lose in every one of those games. Meanwhile the Indians are playing mostly stiffs. It's no guarantee of the playoffs, but it's an advantage.

At the moment all five teams competing for the two wild card spots are within 3.5 games of each other. I'm pretty sure the Indians have the easiest schedule by far due to there being three fairly crappy teams in the AL Central versus none in the AL East.

Is beating out three teams for a playoff spot always harder than beating out one? No, not if it's three good teams in the same division versus one great team in a weak division.

But if everybody doesn't see it that way I'm fine with it.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby pup » Mon Jul 15, 2013 3:35 pm

Since there are no ties, every time one of those team loses, another one wins.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 15, 2013 3:37 pm

Allright, one last try with a specific example.

Here are the Orioles' opponents for their last 20 games of the season:

Boston - 6 games
Toronto - 6 games
Yankees - 4 games
Tampa - 4 games

Indians' last 22 games:

KC - 6 games (just swept them)
White Sox - 6 games (last place in a weak division)
Houston - 4 games (worst team in baseball)
Twins - 4 games (suck almost as much as the Chisox)

See any difference?

I haven't checked but I'll bet the Yankees and Rays last month is similar. The AL East is a bear this year.

Another factor to consider is that those teams the Tribe will be playing will most likely have fire sales in which they trade one or two top players (i.e. Bud Norris, Astros), making them even worse than they are now. Also, they'll be auditioning some prospects from their AAA teams.

No predictions, but if the Tribe can stay within shouting distance until Sep. 1, I like their chances.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 15, 2013 3:41 pm

pup wrote:Since there are no ties, every time one of those team loses, another one wins.


You got it, which means they're playing .500 ball in those games while the Tribe is playing the Twins, Royals, Astros, and White Sox, which they've been playing well over .500 against.

Unless one of those wild card contenders in the East gets so strong that they beat the crap out of the other two and run away with it. But that hasn't happened so far, has it? Does anybody think the Yankees, O's, or Rays are going to do that?
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Kingpin74 » Mon Jul 15, 2013 3:59 pm

They're not going to all go .500 against one another and call it a day. Everyone's point is that with 4 East teams in the playoff mix, it's very likely that two of them get/stay hot and end up in the 92-95 win range, similar to where the Texas-Oakland loser probably will be. Even on an easy schedule, that's a tall order for us to accomplish.

Now for Detroit, as much better as their talent is, if we can scratch out a 4-3 record in our remaining games against them, it will get interesting. They have a lot of games left against the East that we finished up already.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby leadpipe » Mon Jul 15, 2013 4:26 pm

Prosecutor wrote:Allright, one last try with a specific example.

Here are the Orioles' opponents for their last 20 games of the season:

Boston - 6 games
Toronto - 6 games
Yankees - 4 games
Tampa - 4 games

Indians' last 22 games:

KC - 6 games (just swept them)
White Sox - 6 games (last place in a weak division)
Houston - 4 games (worst team in baseball)
Twins - 4 games (suck almost as much as the Chisox)

See any difference?

I haven't checked but I'll bet the Yankees and Rays last month is similar. The AL East is a bear this year.

Another factor to consider is that those teams the Tribe will be playing will most likely have fire sales in which they trade one or two top players (i.e. Bud Norris, Astros), making them even worse than they are now. Also, they'll be auditioning some prospects from their AAA teams.

No predictions, but if the Tribe can stay within shouting distance until Sep. 1, I like their chances.


Good Christ man, I don't need it explained. I don't need a 5,000 word disertation.

Hell, not only me, anyone who isn't a complete imbecile understands how much inifintly harder it becomes to overcome 3 or 4 teams then one.

Basic F'ing mathematical principles.

Holy Christ.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Am I Here Again? » Mon Jul 15, 2013 4:43 pm

Prosecutor wrote:......No predictions, but if the Tribe can stay within shouting distance until Sep. 1, I like their chances.
So we DO have a common point:
Am I Here Again? wrote:....Right now the Tribe is 5th in the wild card, 3 1/2 back. But talk to me in about 8 or 9 weeks.


I posted that on Friday. Glad to see you had an awakening over the weekend. ;-) ;) :wink: Speculating that the Tribe will be in the playoffs today is like saying Labor Day Weekend will be sunny. Nice to think about now (and, believe me, I DO!) but the details of "what if" and "maybe" are too flexible to get too hopeful. Needless to say, I'll be thrilled if we can be having this conversation come Labor Day.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby bookelly » Mon Jul 15, 2013 5:26 pm

15.4% Division
16.7% WC

32.1% Total chance we make the playoffs according to Baseball Prospectus at the All-Star Break. Just a 2% chance at a WS (hell, I'll take it!)

Now if we can net a FL starter for prospects right now I say go ahead and go for it. If we stumble over the next 3 weeks then I'd seriously consider trading Droobs to give us a more realistic run next year.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby 1Perry » Mon Jul 15, 2013 5:39 pm

Debating the Indians odds of making the playoff's sure beats debating who they should trade away before the deadline.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby TouchEmAllTime » Mon Jul 15, 2013 6:28 pm

We only had to win one game out of three vs. a then not very good Devil Rays team back in '05 if I remember correctly. To me, sure the teams we play on paper at the end of the year look favorable, but I don't get fooled by that anymore.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Mon Jul 15, 2013 6:44 pm

TouchEmAllTime wrote:We only had to win one game out of three vs. a then not very good Devil Rays team back in '05 if I remember correctly. To me, sure the teams we play on paper at the end of the year look favorable, but I don't get fooled by that anymore.


That was the year of the Ozzie Guillen choke sign where we got swept the last 3 games of the season by the White Sox who were already in the playoffs.

We won 1 out of 3 against the shitty Rays the series before but, including the Sox sweep, lost 6 of our last 7 to finish 2 games out of the wild card.

Sept 24th we were 1.5 games up on the Yanks and Red Sox with the 2nd best record in AL and in the wild card spot before that 1-6 stretch that meant we missed the playoffs.

That stretch was 1 game against KC - worst team in AL, 3 against TB - 2nd worst team in AL and 3 against CWS - already won the division and playing their reserves.

It was painful.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Jul 15, 2013 8:04 pm

Everyone's point is that with 4 East teams in the playoff mix, it's very likely that two of them get/stay hot and end up in the 92-95 win range


And which two would that be?

Tampa has the best record, but they've played 53 games at home versus only 43 on the road. And they're 21-22 on the road. They're also 20-24 against other teams in the East. I definitely don't see them getting hot and reeling off 37-40 wins.

Baltimore is 23-21 against the East. And we've seen what their last month looks like.

The Yankees are 20-17 against the East, and they've played 51 games at home against 44 on the road. They've also been outscored by 2 runs on the season. They look like a slightly above average team.

The Jays are 18-27 against the East and they're under .500 right now.

So which of these teams is going to start blowing away their division opponents and go 40-26 the rest of the year to take control of the wild card? I'm listening if somebody can make a case.

Remember all these teams have games against Boston with their 58-38 record.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby pup » Mon Jul 15, 2013 9:04 pm

Prosecutor wrote:
Everyone's point is that with 4 East teams in the playoff mix, it's very likely that two of them get/stay hot and end up in the 92-95 win range


And which two would that be?

Tampa has the best record, but they've played 53 games at home versus only 43 on the road. And they're 21-22 on the road. They're also 20-24 against other teams in the East. I definitely don't see them getting hot and reeling off 37-40 wins.

Baltimore is 23-21 against the East. And we've seen what their last month looks like.

The Yankees are 20-17 against the East, and they've played 51 games at home against 44 on the road. They've also been outscored by 2 runs on the season. They look like a slightly above average team.

The Jays are 18-27 against the East and they're under .500 right now.

So which of these teams is going to start blowing away their division opponents and go 40-26 the rest of the year to take control of the wild card? I'm listening if somebody can make a case.

Remember all these teams have games against Boston with their 58-38 record.


Any of them. If anyone knew which one, they wouldn't be dicking around with you @ TCF.

Tell ya what. I will take Rays, Yanks, O's, and Jays.

You get the Tribe.

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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Tue Jul 16, 2013 7:29 am

So the only way I can win this bet is if the Tribe and a AL West team are the WC teams, while you win if any East team gets in?

I don't think I'll taket that bet.

I think that's how it's going to work out, but there's too many variables. What if Texas goes south and Tampa or Baltimore edges them out?

The Tribe is seven games over .500 and has a creampuff schedule in the second half. Their AL East competitors will be playing each other, mostly. I'll just say I like the Tribe's chances and leave it at that. Nobody has even tried to make a case for any other team having a better second half than the Tribe, other to say that odds are "somebody" will get hot, and gee, look how the Tribe collapsed the final week of 2005. Well, those things could happen, but I think Francona will get them in.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Jul 16, 2013 8:28 am

Prosecutor wrote:So the only way I can win this bet is if the Tribe and a AL West team are the WC teams, while you win if any East team gets in?

I don't think I'll taket that bet.

I think that's how it's going to work out, but there's too many variables. What if Texas goes south and Tampa or Baltimore edges them out?

The Tribe is seven games over .500 and has a creampuff schedule in the second half. Their AL East competitors will be playing each other, mostly. I'll just say I like the Tribe's chances and leave it at that. Nobody has even tried to make a case for any other team having a better second half than the Tribe, other to say that odds are "somebody" will get hot, and gee, look how the Tribe collapsed the final week of 2005. Well, those things could happen, but I think Francona will get them in.


You thinking "The Manager" will get them in is par for the course.

And you've been confident in many things over the years in regard to Cleveland sports.

Check out their track records. They mirror yours.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Tue Jul 16, 2013 10:01 am

Nothing wrong with being confident, pipe, even if the confidence is not supported by local history. Nothing wrong with being a knee-jerk pessimist, either.

Maybe the Tribe will not continue beating crappy teams, and maybe the O's or Yanks or Rays will suddenly start winning more than 50-55% of their games against similar quality teams. In that case the pessimism will prove to be justified. We'll see.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Tue Jul 16, 2013 10:09 am

OK, I'm eliminating the Yankees.

13 games against the Red Sox
10 against the Jays
9 against Tampa
7 against Baltimore
4 against Texas
3 against Detroit
2 against the Dodgers
4 against the Angels
3 against the Giants

They do have a few crappy teams on their second half schedule:

3 against Houston
3 against the White Sox
3 against the Padres

They're done.

Edit:

Here's why the Yankees are over .500 at the break.

6-1 against Cleveland
5-2 against Minny
5-2 against KC

That's 11 games over .500 against teams they won't be playing in the second half.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby mattvan1 » Tue Jul 16, 2013 3:00 pm

leadpipe wrote:Check out their track records. They mirror yours.


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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Jul 16, 2013 4:24 pm

Prosecutor wrote:Nothing wrong with being confident, pipe, even if the confidence is not supported by local history. Nothing wrong with being a knee-jerk pessimist, either.

Maybe the Tribe will not continue beating crappy teams, and maybe the O's or Yanks or Rays will suddenly start winning more than 50-55% of their games against similar quality teams. In that case the pessimism will prove to be justified. We'll see.


I don't deal is pessimism. I deal in facts. It is a FACT. A mathematical FACT that jumping 3 or 4 teams is a GREAT DEAL harder than jumping one.

You've done this same shit with the Browns in the past, claiming that they were only a few games out of a wild card, meanwhile, so was half of the AFC.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Tue Jul 16, 2013 4:41 pm

Why is everyone jumping out of their assholes to trade prospects for a starting pitcher?

This team doesn't need a FL starter; it needs reliable relievers.

The bullpen has easily cost the Indians 7+ winnable games because the bullpen has been flat out AWFUL for the last month and a half. They rank 22/23rd (starters/relievers) respectively, but you can throw out the dumpster fires of Bauer, Carrasco, Myers and probably see a more reasonable set of statistics. (Masterson, McAllister, Kazmir, Kluber have been fine, and Ubaldo is meh/feh/bleh good enough for a 5th starter that shouldn't get a sniff of a playoff start)

If you want to talk about depth or viability next year, i'm for it....but i'd far rather give up a middling prospect for a LOOGY so that the Rich Hill experiment can mercifully end than give up a Lindor for Bud Goddamn Norris.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Tue Jul 16, 2013 4:45 pm

Btw, what variables, Pros? You think they have the best shot, take the bet.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby pup » Tue Jul 16, 2013 10:24 pm

Prosecutor wrote:So the only way I can win this bet is if the Tribe and a AL West team are the WC teams, while you win if any East team gets in?

I don't think I'll taket that bet.

I think that's how it's going to work out, but there's too many variables. What if Texas goes south and Tampa or Baltimore edges them out?

The Tribe is seven games over .500 and has a creampuff schedule in the second half. Their AL East competitors will be playing each other, mostly. I'll just say I like the Tribe's chances and leave it at that. Nobody has even tried to make a case for any other team having a better second half than the Tribe, other to say that odds are "somebody" will get hot, and gee, look how the Tribe collapsed the final week of 2005. Well, those things could happen, but I think Francona will get them in.


But those teams all have such a more difficult schedule than we do it shouldn't matter how many teams "i have".
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby motherscratcher » Tue Jul 16, 2013 11:39 pm

leadpipe wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:Allright, one last try with a specific example.

Here are the Orioles' opponents for their last 20 games of the season:

Boston - 6 games
Toronto - 6 games
Yankees - 4 games
Tampa - 4 games

Indians' last 22 games:

KC - 6 games (just swept them)
White Sox - 6 games (last place in a weak division)
Houston - 4 games (worst team in baseball)
Twins - 4 games (suck almost as much as the Chisox)

See any difference?

I haven't checked but I'll bet the Yankees and Rays last month is similar. The AL East is a bear this year.

Another factor to consider is that those teams the Tribe will be playing will most likely have fire sales in which they trade one or two top players (i.e. Bud Norris, Astros), making them even worse than they are now. Also, they'll be auditioning some prospects from their AAA teams.

No predictions, but if the Tribe can stay within shouting distance until Sep. 1, I like their chances.


Good Christ man, I don't need it explained. I don't need a 5,000 word disertation.

Hell, not only me, anyone who isn't a complete imbecile understands how much inifintly harder it becomes to overcome 3 or 4 teams then one.

Basic F'ing mathematical principles.

Holy Christ.


Jeezus LP, this is simple maths. All it will take is:
The O's go 3-12 against the Yanks and Rays,
The Rays go 3-12 against the Yanks and O's
The Yanks go 3-12 against the Rays and O's

Easy. They'll beat each other up. We'll sneak right in there.

Sheesh.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:34 am

leadpipe wrote:
I don't deal is pessimism. I deal in facts. It is a FACT. A mathematical FACT that jumping 3 or 4 teams is a GREAT DEAL harder than jumping one.


Sure, all things being equal. But in this case they're not. Those 3 or 4 teams have to play 9 games or so against the Red Sox (58-39) while the Tribe doesn't play any. They also have to play a lot of games against each other while the Tribe plays much weaker opponents.

From this point on the Tribe has 29 games against the Royals, Twins, and White Sox. So far the Tribe's record against those teams is 19-9. So is it possible they could repeat and go 19-10 or 20-9 against those same teams in the second half? Especially since those teams may be conducting fire sales and auditioning prospects? Can anybody think of a reason why that's not realistic?

Hell, the last 23 games are all against non-contenders, and take place AFTER Sep. 1, when the minor leaguers are called up.

Does anybody really expect the O's, Yanks, or Rays to do as well in their division as the Indians will do against the Royals/Twins/White Sox?

The Indians are 2-12 against the Yankees and Red Sox. They don't play them again. But they have 29 games against the creampuffs they went 19-9 against so far. I call that an advantage.

Looking at it another way, the Indians are 17 games over .500 against teams other than the Yankees and Red Sox.

Anybody can see the East is far superior to the Central, and with unbalanced schedules it gives the Central wild card contender a huge advantage. The other part that's unbalanced is that there are more divisional games in the second half. I think every team has completed most of its inter-league and inter-divisional schedule, which means the East teams will be cannibalizing each other in the second half.

With respect to leadpipe's mathematics, I look at it this way. If you're wrestling in the WWF would you rather be in a cage with one huge guy who wants to kill you or three huge guys who want to kill you but want to kill each other a lot worse? I know it doesn't make sense mathematically, but I think my chances of being the guy who walks out of the cage are better in the second scenario. I suppose Lead is right in that mathematically coming out on top against three contenders is harder than against one. But this is not math, it's baseball. And all things are not equal.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby mattvan1 » Wed Jul 17, 2013 12:39 pm

Prosecutor wrote:
leadpipe wrote:
I don't deal is pessimism. I deal in facts. It is a FACT. A mathematical FACT that jumping 3 or 4 teams is a GREAT DEAL harder than jumping one.


Sure, all things being equal. But in this case they're not. Those 3 or 4 teams have to play 9 games or so against the Red Sox (58-39) while the Tribe doesn't play any. They also have to play a lot of games against each other while the Tribe plays much weaker opponents.

From this point on the Tribe has 29 games against the Royals, Twins, and White Sox. So far the Tribe's record against those teams is 19-9. So is it possible they could repeat and go 19-10 or 20-9 against those same teams in the second half? Especially since those teams may be conducting fire sales and auditioning prospects? Can anybody think of a reason why that's not realistic?

Hell, the last 23 games are all against non-contenders, and take place AFTER Sep. 1, when the minor leaguers are called up.

Does anybody really expect the O's, Yanks, or Rays to do as well in their division as the Indians will do against the Royals/Twins/White Sox?

The Indians are 2-12 against the Yankees and Red Sox. They don't play them again. But they have 29 games against the creampuffs they went 19-9 against so far. I call that an advantage.

Looking at it another way, the Indians are 17 games over .500 against teams other than the Yankees and Red Sox.

Anybody can see the East is far superior to the Central, and with unbalanced schedules it gives the Central wild card contender a huge advantage. The other part that's unbalanced is that there are more divisional games in the second half. I think every team has completed most of its inter-league and inter-divisional schedule, which means the East teams will be cannibalizing each other in the second half.

With respect to leadpipe's mathematics, I look at it this way. If you're wrestling in the WWF would you rather be in a cage with one huge guy who wants to kill you or three huge guys who want to kill you but want to kill each other a lot worse? I know it doesn't make sense mathematically, but I think my chances of being the guy who walks out of the cage are better in the second scenario. I suppose Lead is right in that mathematically coming out on top against three contenders is harder than against one. But this is not math, it's baseball. And all things are not equal.


Allow me, as a public service, to suggest you consider a couple of "key words and phrases" which might improve the overall level of discourse with your fellow sports fans, lest your participation in this forum drive posters away as has happened elsewhere.

"I see your point"

"I never looked at it in that way before"

"We can agree to disagree"

"I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens"

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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:28 pm

mattvan1 wrote:
Prosecutor wrote:
leadpipe wrote:
I don't deal is pessimism. I deal in facts. It is a FACT. A mathematical FACT that jumping 3 or 4 teams is a GREAT DEAL harder than jumping one.


Sure, all things being equal. But in this case they're not. Those 3 or 4 teams have to play 9 games or so against the Red Sox (58-39) while the Tribe doesn't play any. They also have to play a lot of games against each other while the Tribe plays much weaker opponents.

From this point on the Tribe has 29 games against the Royals, Twins, and White Sox. So far the Tribe's record against those teams is 19-9. So is it possible they could repeat and go 19-10 or 20-9 against those same teams in the second half? Especially since those teams may be conducting fire sales and auditioning prospects? Can anybody think of a reason why that's not realistic?

Hell, the last 23 games are all against non-contenders, and take place AFTER Sep. 1, when the minor leaguers are called up.

Does anybody really expect the O's, Yanks, or Rays to do as well in their division as the Indians will do against the Royals/Twins/White Sox?

The Indians are 2-12 against the Yankees and Red Sox. They don't play them again. But they have 29 games against the creampuffs they went 19-9 against so far. I call that an advantage.

Looking at it another way, the Indians are 17 games over .500 against teams other than the Yankees and Red Sox.

Anybody can see the East is far superior to the Central, and with unbalanced schedules it gives the Central wild card contender a huge advantage. The other part that's unbalanced is that there are more divisional games in the second half. I think every team has completed most of its inter-league and inter-divisional schedule, which means the East teams will be cannibalizing each other in the second half.

With respect to leadpipe's mathematics, I look at it this way. If you're wrestling in the WWF would you rather be in a cage with one huge guy who wants to kill you or three huge guys who want to kill you but want to kill each other a lot worse? I know it doesn't make sense mathematically, but I think my chances of being the guy who walks out of the cage are better in the second scenario. I suppose Lead is right in that mathematically coming out on top against three contenders is harder than against one. But this is not math, it's baseball. And all things are not equal.


Allow me, as a public service, to suggest you consider a couple of "key words and phrases" which might improve the overall level of discourse with your fellow sports fans, lest your participation in this forum drive posters away as has happened elsewhere.

"I see your point"

"I never looked at it in that way before"

"We can agree to disagree"

"I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens"

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains. Think about that for a while."


Problem Matt, is that every one of those phrases you suggest, as elementary in concept as they are, still imply that A. You indeed do have a general idea of what others are contributing and B. You have an idea of what you're talking about.

Just got back from Disneyland. Second GD biggest amusement park attendance wise in the country. Despite this fact, I was amazed at how many humps drop dead in their tracks, in the middle of Main Street, to look at their texts. As if there wasn't another GD person on the planet.

This is Pros during this thread. Wandering aimlessly through it seemingly unaware that there's anyone else around.

In a way, I guess it be nice to be so obtuse.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Jul 17, 2013 4:39 pm

leadpipe wrote:Just got back from Disneyland. Second GD biggest amusement park attendance wise in the country. Despite this fact, I was amazed at how many humps drop dead in their tracks, in the middle of Main Street, to look at their texts. As if there wasn't another GD person on the planet.


It's amazing. Same shit in Vegas when I was there a couple weeks ago. Crowded, narrow sidewalks, and people taking pictures with their fucking iPads. First, buy a god damn digital camera. Second, stop being an asshole and get out of my way.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby 7foot3 » Wed Jul 17, 2013 5:31 pm

leadpipe wrote:Problem Matt, is that every one of those phrases you suggest, as elementary in concept as they are, still imply that A. You indeed do have a general idea of what others are contributing and B. You have an idea of what you're talking about.

Just got back from Disneyland. Second GD biggest amusement park attendance wise in the country. Despite this fact, I was amazed at how many humps drop dead in their tracks, in the middle of Main Street, to look at their texts. As if there wasn't another GD person on the planet.

This is Pros during this thread. Wandering aimlessly through it seemingly unaware that there's anyone else around.

In a way, I guess it be nice to be so obtuse.



It's pretty rich that you jump on this considering your behavior. There are few people more likely to go "screw you, I don't care what you say, I'm right".

But of course, why should you say "I can see your point". There's no way you could be wrong.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby bookelly » Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:06 pm

7foot3 wrote:
leadpipe wrote:Problem Matt, is that every one of those phrases you suggest, as elementary in concept as they are, still imply that A. You indeed do have a general idea of what others are contributing and B. You have an idea of what you're talking about.

Just got back from Disneyland. Second GD biggest amusement park attendance wise in the country. Despite this fact, I was amazed at how many humps drop dead in their tracks, in the middle of Main Street, to look at their texts. As if there wasn't another GD person on the planet.

This is Pros during this thread. Wandering aimlessly through it seemingly unaware that there's anyone else around.

In a way, I guess it be nice to be so obtuse.



It's pretty rich that you jump on this considering your behavior. There are few people more likely to go "screw you, I don't care what you say, I'm right".

But of course, why should you say "I can see your point". There's no way you could be wrong.


True - but he's aces at picking football games so we let it slide.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:15 pm

mattvan1 wrote:
Allow me, as a public service, to suggest you consider a couple of "key words and phrases" which might improve the overall level of discourse with your fellow sports fans, lest your participation in this forum drive posters away as has happened elsewhere.

"I see your point"

"I never looked at it in that way before"

"We can agree to disagree"

"I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens"

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains. Think about that for a while."


mattvan, maybe you missed the part where I said,

I suppose Lead is right in that mathematically coming out on top against three contenders is harder than against one.


That's my way of saying, "I see your point."

I just don't think it's as simple as he paints it. I acknowledged that he would be right if all four contending teams had the same difficulty of schedule. I'm not burying my head in the sand and ignoring his argument. I simply believe that if four teams have similar W-L records 60% of the way through the season, but one team has a much easier schedule than the others the rest of the way, that team has the advantage. Pipe does not agree with that statement, sticking to his contention that overtaking three teams is ALWAYS much, much harder than overtaking one, and nothing else matters. At this point I suppose we should just agree to disagree.

You suggested I say, "I guess we'll just have to wait and see what happens." If you check my post on 7/16 at 9:01 a.m. you'll see that I said,

Maybe the Tribe will not continue beating crappy teams, and maybe the O's or Yanks or Rays will suddenly start winning more than 50-55% of their games against similar quality teams. In that case the pessimism will prove to be justified. We'll see.


I acknowledged that leadpipe may prove to be right in the end, and I said "We'll see". Maybe if you read my posts a little more carefully you wouldn't be so quick in instruct me.

As for the Bull Durham quote, that was very, very helpful to this discussion. Thanks a lot.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Jul 17, 2013 6:42 pm

7foot3 wrote:
leadpipe wrote:Problem Matt, is that every one of those phrases you suggest, as elementary in concept as they are, still imply that A. You indeed do have a general idea of what others are contributing and B. You have an idea of what you're talking about.

Just got back from Disneyland. Second GD biggest amusement park attendance wise in the country. Despite this fact, I was amazed at how many humps drop dead in their tracks, in the middle of Main Street, to look at their texts. As if there wasn't another GD person on the planet.

This is Pros during this thread. Wandering aimlessly through it seemingly unaware that there's anyone else around.

In a way, I guess it be nice to be so obtuse.



It's pretty rich that you jump on this considering your behavior. There are few people more likely to go "screw you, I don't care what you say, I'm right".

But of course, why should you say "I can see your point". There's no way you could be wrong.


Been wrong many a times.

Admitted it so.

Why wouldn't I? Afraid to be wrong debating sports on a message board. Who cares?

But really 7. I'm not going to say "I see your point," when I don't.

Passing 3 or 4 teams IS inherently more difficult than passing one - for a myriad of reasons that a perceived soft schedule doesn't compensate for.

And you're clearly smarter than me, what's your take?
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby 7foot3 » Wed Jul 17, 2013 7:03 pm

leadpipe wrote:Been wrong many a times.

Admitted it so.

Why wouldn't I? Afraid to be wrong debating sports on a message board. Who cares?

But really 7. I'm not going to say "I see your point," when I don't.

Passing 3 or 4 teams IS inherently more difficult than passing one - for a myriad of reasons that a perceived soft schedule doesn't compensate for.

And you're clearly smarter than me, what's your take?



You're right, sometimes you are wrong. That still doesn't change my statement about your propensity to ignore the other side of the argument just to be a stubborn ass.

My take is that your pissing contest matters very little to me, but I couldn't help but point out your laughable hypocrisy. I really only care about the team finding a way to scratch out 90 wins and hoping things break right from there.
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Re: Second half schedule

Unread postby Prosecutor » Wed Jul 17, 2013 8:06 pm

Gradysmanldy wrote:Btw, what variables, Pros? You think they have the best shot, take the bet.


The last two years the Tribe got off to a great start and collapsed. I don't expect that to happen this year, especially given their soft schedule, but it's certainly a possibility. You can't ignore history, and very few people have ever been wrong betting against Cleveland sports teams. Which is why most fans react negatively any time someone suggests that a Cleveland team is in pretty good shape.

I do think the Tribe has a better shot than the Yankees, O's and Rays, and I've spelled out why in great detail. But I've been wrong before and you have to account for the unexpected, and I'm not willing to risk banning myself from the board for a month if I don't have to.
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