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Markets returning?

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Markets returning?

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Mon Jan 28, 2013 1:09 pm

So, Friday market the highest rise in the S+P since October, 2007. In typical fashion, it dropped back down today, but it seems that financials are continuing the slow climb they started in the fall before holding pat and waiting on news of the fiancial cliff.

Question now is, if congress agrees to cut spending without crippling it this upcoming month, does this year begin the true rally of the job market/housing market to respectability? I'm not a huge financial guy, so figured some folks here (*coughRichcough*) might share some opinions.

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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby swerb » Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:20 pm

Current run up to me is overblown and I wouldn't buy stocks with Pup's $ at these levels. A lot of this run up has been people freaked out about the Fed pulling out of the bond buying business and moving $ from bonds to stocks. Also have a Fed meeting this week, which has been stoking Fed delevraging fears even more ... many expect them (not me) to speak to the end or to a cascade date for bond buying.

Also part of the run up has been better than expected housing/jobs #'s these last few wees. Housing market is moving the right way. I feel the housing market will continue to improve. Not as bullish on jobs and the jobs market based on productivity, technology, and policies that are essentially anti-job growth. Current market levels pretty much have 3.5%-4.0% GDP growth baked into them. I'm betting on a correction by spring/early summer. I hope I'm wrong.
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby Orenthal » Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:25 pm

Stocks are just now reaching 2008 highs. While I do not have faith in the government, individual stocks and the broader market seem in bull mode with room to spare.
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby FUDU » Mon Jan 28, 2013 6:30 pm

Rich do you foresee mortgage rates being under 4% for any longer than this summer/year?
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby swerb » Mon Jan 28, 2013 8:18 pm

FUDU wrote:Rich do you foresee mortgage rates being under 4% for any longer than this summer/year?

I do. It depends largely on the direction of the stock market and economic recovery. If the Dow goes up over 15,000, it will be very tough (impossible?) for 30 year fixed rates to stay in the mid 3's, especially if the Fed stops buying mortgage bonds.

I believe the economy will continue to muddle along at this limp pace throughout 2013. And that the Fed will keep buying bonds and fixed rates will remain very low through most if not all of this year.

There has NEVER been a better time to buy a home. Fixed rates at historical lows. Home values just starting to appreciate again as well, with current values at rock bottom or close to it. If you buy the right home right now, the chances are very good it will appreciate 2-4% a year for the next 10 years.
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Tue Jan 29, 2013 9:55 am

Thanks for the writeup; I see positive growth signs in nearly every market, especially housing, but wasn't sure how much of the growth in stocks/jobs was sustainable.

Appreciate it.
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby YahooFanChicago » Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:03 am

some strong numbers from housing, employment certainly help support the bull run to historical levels above the highs from 5.5. years ago.

Additional mid and long-term support from the US shale/sand oil which should certainly help with medium and longer term energy costs and dramatically improve our trade balance and add strength to the USD.

Major negative gotcha potential out there with more potential wars (Iran, N. Korea) which we can't afford. In theory that shit should be "priced-in" already but since it hasn't happened in many decades with those crazy idiots may mean the market doesn't believe it will happen and hasn't reflected the negative impact.
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby Orenthal » Mon Mar 11, 2013 9:48 am

The employment numbers saw a huge jump last month. Well huge is a relative term, but much better than expectations. Also looks like the sequester hasn't brought on the apocolypse. If more nothing can get down in Washington this rally may continue.
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Mon Mar 11, 2013 10:02 am

OBAMA 4 LIFE!!!
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby Orenthal » Fri Jul 19, 2013 3:58 pm

So how about that DOOM AND GLOOM!!!

Where is that investing thread. Shoulda been in HAL people... MO and PM still chugging along.
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby Orenthal » Thu Nov 14, 2013 5:03 pm

Still going strong. I sold most of my holdings in my trading account fearing the worst during the shutdown. Nope, the markets are still chugging along and, well, MO, PM, and HAL continue to rock. Are we hitting highs now?
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Re: Markets returning?

Unread postby furls » Sun Nov 17, 2013 7:20 pm

Did really well this year. I am getting a bit worried that things are a little overheated right now though. I am sort of a "value stock" sort of guy as opposed to the newest hottest thing sort of guy, and frankly, I am having a hard time finding value.
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