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Lineup Next Year

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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Commodore Perry » Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:13 am

skatingtripods wrote:Wrote up my thoughts on the DH situation: http://bit.ly/WgFeuC


Have to agree with your conclusion on Hafner. The thing is this would be exactly the kind of guy the front office would target if he had come from another team. A broken-down once-was with a possibility of a high ceiling type of comeback year. And a guy that could probably be had for a reasonable 1 year contract that could always be flipped at the deadline.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby swerb » Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:40 am

Commodore Perry wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Wrote up my thoughts on the DH situation: http://bit.ly/WgFeuC


Have to agree with your conclusion on Hafner. The thing is this would be exactly the kind of guy the front office would target if he had come from another team. A broken-down once-was with a possibility of a high ceiling type of comeback year. And a guy that could probably be had for a reasonable 1 year contract that could always be flipped at the deadline.

AT Tribefest, in the Francona/Antonetti town hall part, they got a few questions on Hafner and the DH.

In trying to cut through the BS, it seemed as if their clear preference (Francona and Antonetti) was to find 1-2-3 guys to fill the spot that can also play the field, and not to block a roster spot with someone who can't field. They were open to the possibility of Hafner as a fallback if they can't achieve objective A. I think they wanna move on from Hafner, but obviously know all the info in Adam's column that points to him as possibly being the best available option.

And I also agree with Adam's assessment ... if Hafner had played the last 8 years with the Royals or Mariners he would have been signed already.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby pup » Sat Jan 26, 2013 10:46 am

swerb wrote:
Commodore Perry wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:Wrote up my thoughts on the DH situation: http://bit.ly/WgFeuC


Have to agree with your conclusion on Hafner. The thing is this would be exactly the kind of guy the front office would target if he had come from another team. A broken-down once-was with a possibility of a high ceiling type of comeback year. And a guy that could probably be had for a reasonable 1 year contract that could always be flipped at the deadline.

AT Tribefest, in the Francona/Antonetti town hall part, they got a few questions on Hafner and the DH.

In trying to cut through the BS, it seemed as if their clear preference (Francona and Antonetti) was to find 1-2-3 guys to fill the spot that can also play the field, and not to block a roster spot with someone who can't field. They were open to the possibility of Hafner as a fallback if they can't achieve objective A. I think they wanna move on from Hafner, but obviously know all the info in Adam's column that points to him as possibly being the best available option.

And I also agree with Adam's assessment ... if Hafner had played the last 8 years with the Royals or Mariners he would have been signed already.


It wouldn't make it a good move though.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:38 am

Yeah, I say cut the ties, too. Bringing Hafner back just doesn't make much sense, and it goes along with their "old" way of doing things...bringing back guys they've already paid to NOT play for them (Grady). If you've escaped Alcatraz, why would you ever want to break back in?

I think they're best served using the DH the way the rest of the AL seems to be going...a spot to rest your regulars while rotating your bench guys in to keep them fresh. If we're really keeping Asdrubal, then isn't that what we brought Aviles in for? And I wouldn't mind seeing what some at-bats split between some guys like Gomes and McGuinness would result in. Bat them 9th where there isn't much expected of them, and see what happens. I mean, can they honestly be that much worse than Hafner at this point?
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Jan 26, 2013 12:31 pm

Adverb Harry wrote:Bringing Hafner back just doesn't make much sense


Well, I already outlined why Hafner has value in the article and why he makes sense, so I won't go back over it again. They already have three switch hitters, plus Kipnis, plus Chisenhall, who they can work into the DH spot. If Hafner's name is only penciled in there 85 times this season and hits .250/.365/.435/.800, that's a fair amount of value for the money, assuming he gets 3M or less.

Like I've mentioned before regarding Hafner, his splits v. RHP still make him a productive hitter. The Indians faced a RH starter in 111 of the 162 games last year.

I think they're best served using the DH the way the rest of the AL seems to be going...a spot to rest your regulars while rotating your bench guys in to keep them fresh. If we're really keeping Asdrubal, then isn't that what we brought Aviles in for? And I wouldn't mind seeing what some at-bats split between some guys like Gomes and McGuinness would result in. Bat them 9th where there isn't much expected of them, and see what happens. I mean, can they honestly be that much worse than Hafner at this point?


I don't hate the idea of using the DH spot to rest regulars, but, let's be honest, you're not going to do that every single game. Those guys need to get a rhythm playing in the field as well.

McGuiness has 530 career plate appearances at Double-A. Nothing at Triple-A. He's not going to make that jump at the start of this season.

I don't mind giving Gomes a roster spot, because he can be an emergency catcher, backup 1B/3B and right handed complement to Hafner (if he's signed), but if they believed Gomes could be an everyday player, serving as DH and a utility guy, they wouldn't be exploring DH options. Sure, Gomes raked in the hitter-happy PCL, but his numbers in Double-A and High-A are very pedestrian.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Sat Jan 26, 2013 3:02 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Adverb Harry wrote:Bringing Hafner back just doesn't make much sense


Well, I already outlined why Hafner has value in the article and why he makes sense, so I won't go back over it again. They already have three switch hitters, plus Kipnis, plus Chisenhall, who they can work into the DH spot. If Hafner's name is only penciled in there 85 times this season and hits .250/.365/.435/.800, that's a fair amount of value for the money, assuming he gets 3M or less.

Like I've mentioned before regarding Hafner, his splits v. RHP still make him a productive hitter. The Indians faced a RH starter in 111 of the 162 games last year.

I think they're best served using the DH the way the rest of the AL seems to be going...a spot to rest your regulars while rotating your bench guys in to keep them fresh. If we're really keeping Asdrubal, then isn't that what we brought Aviles in for? And I wouldn't mind seeing what some at-bats split between some guys like Gomes and McGuinness would result in. Bat them 9th where there isn't much expected of them, and see what happens. I mean, can they honestly be that much worse than Hafner at this point?


I don't hate the idea of using the DH spot to rest regulars, but, let's be honest, you're not going to do that every single game. Those guys need to get a rhythm playing in the field as well.

McGuiness has 530 career plate appearances at Double-A. Nothing at Triple-A. He's not going to make that jump at the start of this season.

I don't mind giving Gomes a roster spot, because he can be an emergency catcher, backup 1B/3B and right handed complement to Hafner (if he's signed), but if they believed Gomes could be an everyday player, serving as DH and a utility guy, they wouldn't be exploring DH options. Sure, Gomes raked in the hitter-happy PCL, but his numbers in Double-A and High-A are very pedestrian.


All great points, and very well said. I guess my biggest issue with Hafner is that I'd personally just prefer they
move on. But for the money it would take, there would be a lot worse moves they could make.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Jan 26, 2013 6:19 pm

Adverb Harry wrote:All great points, and very well said. I guess my biggest issue with Hafner is that I'd personally just prefer they
move on. But for the money it would take, there would be a lot worse moves they could make.


They could always sign Kotchman to play 1B. Reynolds DH.

If Santana were a better first baseman, and they didn't view him as a major asset behind the plate because of his offensive prowess, then they could have done something else to make Reynolds the full-time DH.

I'm willing to give Hafner another shot, but they need to do it in a way that gives him, and the team, the best chance to succeed. Pick his spots, bench him against LHP, don't play him too many days in a row, etc.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby googleeph2 » Sat Jan 26, 2013 11:12 pm

As an aside, nice article on the Ohio-bred ballplayers, STP. But the Cleveland Infants? WTF? Just making sure we're paying attention? :-)
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Jan 27, 2013 12:08 am

googleeph2 wrote:As an aside, nice article on the Ohio-bred ballplayers, STP. But the Cleveland Infants? WTF? Just making sure we're paying attention? :-)


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleveland_Infants
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:27 pm

All over Twitter that the Yankees may be closing in on a deal with Hafner. Makes a ton of sense for them. Short porch in RF will give him some help.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:35 pm

skatingtripods wrote:All over Twitter that the Yankees may be closing in on a deal with Hafner. Makes a ton of sense for them. Short porch in RF will give him some help.


Good for him. I do hope he does well there. Didn't really want him back here, but I've always liked him personally and would like to see him get that career back on track. Probably a better fit in that park, anyway.

Yankees sure are taking a liking to our cast offs. Candler, Neal, now Hafner? How much you want to bet they all make an impact on that team, just to screw with us?
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:01 pm

Adverb Harry wrote:Yankees sure are taking a liking to our cast offs. Candler, Neal, now Hafner? How much you want to bet they all make an impact on that team, just to screw with us?


They took Canzler too.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:02 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Adverb Harry wrote:Yankees sure are taking a liking to our cast offs. Candler, Neal, now Hafner? How much you want to bet they all make an impact on that team, just to screw with us?


They took Canzler too.


Yeah. Damn autocorrect on the phone. :thumb up:
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:38 pm

Adverb Harry wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
Adverb Harry wrote:Yankees sure are taking a liking to our cast offs. Candler, Neal, now Hafner? How much you want to bet they all make an impact on that team, just to screw with us?


They took Canzler too.


Yeah. Damn autocorrect on the phone. :thumb up:


Actually, I didn't even read your post. I just assumed you didn't mention him. Now I look like a dick. That's nothing new.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:51 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Adverb Harry wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
Adverb Harry wrote:Yankees sure are taking a liking to our cast offs. Candler, Neal, now Hafner? How much you want to bet they all make an impact on that team, just to screw with us?


They took Canzler too.


Yeah. Damn autocorrect on the phone. :thumb up:


Actually, I didn't even read your post. I just assumed you didn't mention him. Now I look like a dick. That's nothing new.


Nah. I just took it as you kidding around, anyway. Besides, you're OUR dick.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby 1Perry » Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:39 pm

I'm not sure that NY would be the best place to try and get your career back on track.

He is a decent guy and while I still think it's time for the Indians to move on, if he signs elsewhere I would also like to see him do well. (except of course against the Indians)
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Jan 31, 2013 8:56 am

skatingtripods wrote:All over Twitter that the Yankees may be closing in on a deal with Hafner. Makes a ton of sense for them. Short porch in RF will give him some help.


Short porch won't help him run to 1st. Short porch won't help him lay off the low breaking ball.

Glad he's going to NY. Good for him. I like him and wish him well. But he ain't doing jack shit there or anywhere. Mista Pronk...he done.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:18 pm

Chad Jennings of New York Journal News says Hafner will get a deal similar to the Raul Ibanez deal, which was 1 year, 1.1M.

Gotta say, for 1.1M, I absolutely would have taken a chance on him. I'd venture to say that puts Thome's market value below 1M. We'll see if the Indians take a chance on that.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:23 pm

Adverb Harry wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
Adverb Harry wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:
Adverb Harry wrote:Yankees sure are taking a liking to our cast offs. Candler, Neal, now Hafner? How much you want to bet they all make an impact on that team, just to screw with us?


They took Canzler too.


Yeah. Damn autocorrect on the phone. :thumb up:


Actually, I didn't even read your post. I just assumed you didn't mention him. Now I look like a dick. That's nothing new.


Nah. I just took it as you kidding around, anyway. Besides, you're OUR dick.


Speak for yourself. Some of us have bigger dicks than others...

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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Jan 31, 2013 3:51 pm

1Perry wrote:I'm not sure that NY would be the best place to try and get your career back on track.

He is a decent guy and while I still think it's time for the Indians to move on, if he signs elsewhere I would also like to see him do well. (except of course against the Indians)


Nowhere is a good place to get your career back on track if you really aren't all that good.

Anywhere will work if you can play.

To Tripods point, for a million, you'd take a shot. But that opens up the bigger point, that signing old million dollar players emphasizes the point that you don't have any young players worth a shit to take a look at.

3 million...2 million...1 million...whatever, overall, if you've got Old Yeller penciled in your line-up much in 2013, you're in pretty big trouble. At 1 million, you're less of a moron, but still in trouble.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:49 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:
Speak for yourself. Some of us have bigger dicks than others...

:dingle:



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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:31 pm

Tom Withers just tweeted that the Indians signed Matt Capps to a minor league deal.

Like the signing. Bullpen insurance is never a bad thing. Very, very low risk.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby 1Perry » Thu Jan 31, 2013 9:51 pm

leadpipe wrote:
1Perry wrote:I'm not sure that NY would be the best place to try and get your career back on track.

He is a decent guy and while I still think it's time for the Indians to move on, if he signs elsewhere I would also like to see him do well. (except of course against the Indians)


Nowhere is a good place to get your career back on track if you really aren't all that good.


Point taken.

Anywhere will work if you can play.

To Tripods point, for a million, you'd take a shot. But that opens up the bigger point, that signing old million dollar players emphasizes the point that you don't have any young players worth a shit to take a look at.

3 million...2 million...1 million...whatever, overall, if you've got Old Yeller penciled in your line-up much in 2013, you're in pretty big trouble. At 1 million, you're less of a moron, but still in trouble.


Again.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:40 pm

Indians have signed Jeremy Hermida to a minor league contract. We're really cornering the market on former top prospects (Hermida, Kazmir, Capps). And I don't mean that in a sarcastic way, either. I mean, what can it hurt? If even one gets it going, it's a steal. Besides, in years past, Hermida would probably have a leg up on the left field spot and Kazmir would have a guaranteed place in the rotation. Now they're just depth. I like it.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby leadpipe » Mon Feb 04, 2013 10:14 pm

Adverb Harry wrote:Indians have signed Jeremy Hermida to a minor league contract. We're really cornering the market on former top prospects (Hermida, Kazmir, Capps). And I don't mean that in a sarcastic way, either. I mean, what can it hurt? If even one gets it going, it's a steal. Besides, in years past, Hermida would probably have a leg up on the left field spot and Kazmir would have a guaranteed place in the rotation. Now they're just depth. I like it.


Kinda like to get your hands on these guys before the age of 48.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Mon Feb 04, 2013 11:31 pm

leadpipe wrote:
Adverb Harry wrote:Indians have signed Jeremy Hermida to a minor league contract. We're really cornering the market on former top prospects (Hermida, Kazmir, Capps). And I don't mean that in a sarcastic way, either. I mean, what can it hurt? If even one gets it going, it's a steal. Besides, in years past, Hermida would probably have a leg up on the left field spot and Kazmir would have a guaranteed place in the rotation. Now they're just depth. I like it.


Kinda like to get your hands on these guys before the age of 48.


Yeah, well, Thome's still out there. ;-) ;) :wink:
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby scrambler » Tue Feb 05, 2013 10:53 am

redneckofsc wrote:Also, what do you expect the rotation to be with the addition of Myers?


My dream scenario is a season ending injury to Jimenez in spring training. I would hope the rotation is Bauer, Masterson, Myers, McAlister, and anyone whose first name is not Ubaldo. Jimenez pitching zero games would add 5 to 10 wins to the season total automatically.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Feb 05, 2013 12:22 pm

scrambler wrote:
redneckofsc wrote:Also, what do you expect the rotation to be with the addition of Myers?


My dream scenario is a season ending injury to Jimenez in spring training. I would hope the rotation is Bauer, Masterson, Myers, McAlister, and anyone whose first name is not Ubaldo. Jimenez pitching zero games would add 5 to 10 wins to the season total automatically.


Jimenez is in the rotation. I personally think Bauer starts in Columbus and Kluber starts in Cleveland. If Bauer does stick around, though, the McAllister v. Kluber battle for the fifth spot is going to be interesting.

Kluber was, arguably, better than McAllister last year. Very similar K/9, better BB/9, lower FIP and xFIP (smaller sample size also in play), higher ground ball rate, higher swinging strike percentage (10.7% to 8.3%). Posted a similar WAR given that Kluber threw about half of the innings that McAllister threw.

Biggest difference between the two was that batters hit .294 off of Kluber, while they hit .264 off of McAllister. Luck played a factor in that, as well as Kluber being behind in the count more than McAllister. Batters hit .272 off of McAllister after he fell behind 1-0. They hit .355 off of Kluber. McAllister threw 60.8% first pitch strikes, Kluber 56.9%.

They're two similar guys. Not complete carbon copies of each other, but very comparable. I also think they both have some upside and talent to be decent #4, quality #5 starters.

I guess Scott Kazmir would be in the running for the fifth spot, but I'd consider him a long shot right now.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby bac5665 » Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:04 pm

Is Carrasco not going to be healthy for opening day? Cause I'd think he'd get a spot if he is.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:04 pm

bac5665 wrote:Is Carrasco not going to be healthy for opening day? Cause I'd think he'd get a spot if he is.


He'll be healthy, but I can't see him getting it. There's going to be noticeable rust on him and he's going to need to get everything squared away in Triple-A. I'd imagine that he'll be up at some point, for a spot start or injury replacement, but I can't see him breaking camp with the team.

I think he'll be on an innings limit and they'll want those to be low-stress innings for most of the year. The hope would probably be that he'd be ready to crack the Opening Day rotation in 2014 as a Myers replacement in the #3/#4 spot.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby bac5665 » Tue Feb 05, 2013 5:50 pm

I thought the hope with Carrasco is that he pitches the way he was pitching right before his injury, which was FOR quality. I understand that they will want to take him slowly, but really, I will be quite disappointed if he is only in the #3/#4 spot.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby peeker643 » Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:08 pm

I think Adam's right on Carrasco. Pitch count in Triple A to refine the control that TJ surgery typically affects. Depending on progress a mid-season call up. I don't think the Indians have high expectations that Carrasco will be MoR guy out of spring training but I don't think they'd have an issue putting him rotation in June if he shows he's ahead of the curve.

The good news is he's not eligible for free agency until 2017 so they have some time to see where he heads and he's only 25.

I might be optimistic but I still have relatively high hopesfor the kid.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:20 pm

bac5665 wrote:I thought the hope with Carrasco is that he pitches the way he was pitching right before his injury, which was FOR quality. I understand that they will want to take him slowly, but really, I will be quite disappointed if he is only in the #3/#4 spot.


I don't think he is FOR quality. I don't think he misses enough bats to be a #1 or #2 starter. His offspeed stuff doesn't appear to be good enough to compensate for average fastball command. It's hard to make a lot of Major League judgments after 191.2 innings, part of which he was probably pitching through injury, but the numbers aren't really in his favor so far.

Add in Tommy John delaying his development another year, making him 26 during Spring Training, with just one season of work spread over three MLB cups of coffee, and it's really hard to see him developing into a #1 or #2 starter.

My hope for Carrasco is that he settles in as a good #3, quality #4. A guy who can induce a lot of groundballs and strike out more hitters than the average groundball guy.

Hell, I could probably make a case for McAllister > Carrasco by looking at them side-by-side. That's not a giant vote of confidence for Carrasco.

I get that he was injured and bounced up and down from the Majors to Triple-A, but I don't see front of the rotation from Carrasco. I hope I'm wrong and I hope he stays healthy. But, I don't see it.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby scrambler » Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:19 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
scrambler wrote:
redneckofsc wrote:Also, what do you expect the rotation to be with the addition of Myers?


My dream scenario is a season ending injury to Jimenez in spring training. I would hope the rotation is Bauer, Masterson, Myers, McAlister, and anyone whose first name is not Ubaldo. Jimenez pitching zero games would add 5 to 10 wins to the season total automatically.


Jimenez is in the rotation.



What am I missing here? Is it simply his contract that allows this statement from the organization? Granted I'm biased and hated the trade for him from day one, but how bad does this guy have to be to finally lose his job? How God awful does he actually have to be? It was simply unbelievable how bad he was last year. McAlister was far superior to him....he was better than Masterson last year as well and he has to battle to get a spot. Yet, Jimenez is in the rotation. It makes me beyond sick. So the plan is for the new pitching coach to fix him I guess. If I'm running the show, Bauer is the only guy with a spot in the rotation, him alone. I pitch him zero innings in Columbus. What in God's name has Jimenez done for the Cleveland Indians to have an unquestioned slot in the rotation over any guy that pitched in class A ball last year? Because he is not as good as any of those guys.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby bac5665 » Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:34 pm

By midseason the rotation should be:

Masterson/Bauer/Myers/Carrasco/Jimenez. That's 4 guys who have pitched FOR stuff before, regardless of where they are now, and a solid consistent vet. That rotation has the potential to be stellar and it actually has a pretty high floor, especially compared to past rotations. Bauer and Carrasco have to develop and Masterson has to settle down, but I really do see great potential for that rotation. Which probably means they'll blow.

As to Jimenez, I think they need to let him pitch in spring and ignore the name on the jersey. Take the best five. But I expect that they will take Jiminez and put him in the rotation. The prevailing wisdom in sports is to waste as much time and money on sunk costs as possible and I expect this regime to do the same.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Feb 06, 2013 2:38 pm

scrambler wrote:What am I missing here? Is it simply his contract that allows this statement from the organization? Granted I'm biased and hated the trade for him from day one, but how bad does this guy have to be to finally lose his job? How God awful does he actually have to be? It was simply unbelievable how bad he was last year. McAlister was far superior to him....he was better than Masterson last year as well and he has to battle to get a spot. Yet, Jimenez is in the rotation. It makes me beyond sick. So the plan is for the new pitching coach to fix him I guess. If I'm running the show, Bauer is the only guy with a spot in the rotation, him alone. I pitch him zero innings in Columbus. What in God's name has Jimenez done for the Cleveland Indians to have an unquestioned slot in the rotation over any guy that pitched in class A ball last year? Because he is not as good as any of those guys.


They don't pick up Jimenez's 2013 club option unless they plan to use him in the rotation. There's no other possible role for him.

I could make a case for why you keep Jimenez in the rotation and expect improvement, but it would be unnecessary, since your mind is already made up.

What do you truly know about Trevor Bauer besides the potential and the hype? The pre-game warmup routine? I'm not asking to be a dick, I'm just curious. Because here's what I know about Trevor Bauer. He's only thrown 156 innings at the minor league level. Yes, he misses bats (217 K) but he also misses the strike zone (73 BB). That comes with 26 wild pitches (a little misleading with different catchers not knowing his stuff, but still shows that he's erratic).

His Major League debut showed promise, but also showed a lack of command and maturity. At times, he's almost too smart for his own good. This isn't a kid that you want to rush to the big leagues. He still needs work and the best place to get that is where he can get the most attention. That's in Triple-A. They're in no hurry to get him to the big leagues because they're not a contender this season and possibly not next season either.


Regarding the rest of the rotation, Masterson's still your de facto #1. I don't know how you can't see that Brett Myers is a lock for the rotation, but whatever. I don't think McAllister really has to battle for a spot. If Bauer doesn't make it, McAllister's a lock. If Bauer makes it, McAllister has an inside track over both Kluber and the collection of others (Kazmir, Huff, etc.). I'd give it an 85-90% chance that if McAllister stays healthy in camp, he makes the rotation.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:20 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
scrambler wrote:What am I missing here? Is it simply his contract that allows this statement from the organization? Granted I'm biased and hated the trade for him from day one, but how bad does this guy have to be to finally lose his job? How God awful does he actually have to be? It was simply unbelievable how bad he was last year. McAlister was far superior to him....he was better than Masterson last year as well and he has to battle to get a spot. Yet, Jimenez is in the rotation. It makes me beyond sick. So the plan is for the new pitching coach to fix him I guess. If I'm running the show, Bauer is the only guy with a spot in the rotation, him alone. I pitch him zero innings in Columbus. What in God's name has Jimenez done for the Cleveland Indians to have an unquestioned slot in the rotation over any guy that pitched in class A ball last year? Because he is not as good as any of those guys.


They don't pick up Jimenez's 2013 club option unless they plan to use him in the rotation. There's no other possible role for him.

I could make a case for why you keep Jimenez in the rotation and expect improvement, but it would be unnecessary, since your mind is already made up.

What do you truly know about Trevor Bauer besides the potential and the hype? The pre-game warmup routine? I'm not asking to be a dick, I'm just curious. Because here's what I know about Trevor Bauer. He's only thrown 156 innings at the minor league level. Yes, he misses bats (217 K) but he also misses the strike zone (73 BB). That comes with 26 wild pitches (a little misleading with different catchers not knowing his stuff, but still shows that he's erratic).

His Major League debut showed promise, but also showed a lack of command and maturity. At times, he's almost too smart for his own good. This isn't a kid that you want to rush to the big leagues. He still needs work and the best place to get that is where he can get the most attention. That's in Triple-A. They're in no hurry to get him to the big leagues because they're not a contender this season and possibly not next season either.


Regarding the rest of the rotation, Masterson's still your de facto #1. I don't know how you can't see that Brett Myers is a lock for the rotation, but whatever. I don't think McAllister really has to battle for a spot. If Bauer doesn't make it, McAllister's a lock. If Bauer makes it, McAllister has an inside track over both Kluber and the collection of others (Kazmir, Huff, etc.). I'd give it an 85-90% chance that if McAllister stays healthy in camp, he makes the rotation.


You'll be able to tell if Jiminez belongs in the rotation in the first two weeks of the season.

It's pretty simple with him. If he's running it up there, making guys uncomfortable, then we're talkin'.

If he's sloggin' it up there as he has his entire Tribe career you'd be wasting time not throwing anyone out there.

He's been awful wire to wire, and Christ is he the last guy on GGE I'd like to play defense behind (Now that Carmona is gone)
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Wed Feb 06, 2013 6:29 pm

leadpipe wrote:You'll be able to tell if Jiminez belongs in the rotation in the first two weeks of the season.

It's pretty simple with him. If he's running it up there, making guys uncomfortable, then we're talkin'.

If he's sloggin' it up there as he has his entire Tribe career you'd be wasting time not throwing anyone out there.

He's been awful wire to wire, and Christ is he the last guy on GGE I'd like to play defense behind (Now that Carmona is gone)


Understandable on all points.

Generally, when I'm posting something like that, it's from what I think is the front office's perspective, because mine, ultimately, doesn't matter. Irrespective of what we think about Jimenez, they didn't pick up his option for him to not be in the rotation. A market like this isn't giving a guy 7.5M to pitch in long relief.

I could make a case for it, based on what I think they're thinking. Doesn't necessarily mean I agree with it or I'd swear by it, but it makes it a lot easier to handle when you try to see it from the front office's point of view.

It's how I stay sane.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:31 pm

Tribe takes care of Aviles. 2/6 w/ '15 club option. If Lindor's ready in two years, looks like it's his job with Aviles as a backup SS/insurance if Lindor isn't ready/decline option.

Arbitration streak in tact. Let's all rejoice!
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Feb 07, 2013 5:26 pm

Looks like some of you get your wish:

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
Sources: #Indians no longer pursuing Thome, do not want to commit roster spot to a DH. Thome healthy, working out, open to other clubs.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby scrambler » Thu Feb 07, 2013 6:27 pm

Well, hopefully 2013 is the year I'm wrong about Jimenez (it's one of the few things in my life I've been right about so I need to keep bringing it up!). I honestly do hope he can win 15 to 20 games this year. The facts say he hasn't been a good pitcher since the all star break of 2010. It appears to me we have to keep hoping White and Pomeranz continue to stink so the trade won't be a complete loser.

As far as Bauer goes I just think he can surpass Ubaldo's 1.7 WHIP and 5.5 ERA or whatever the heck he was last year regardless of whether he long tosses two minutes before the game or not. And I think he can surpass it easily.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:06 pm

scrambler wrote:Well, hopefully 2013 is the year I'm wrong about Jimenez (it's one of the few things in my life I've been right about so I need to keep bringing it up!). I honestly do hope he can win 15 to 20 games this year. The facts say he hasn't been a good pitcher since the all star break of 2010. It appears to me we have to keep hoping White and Pomeranz continue to stink so the trade won't be a complete loser.


You're right. He's been awful. 2012 had some outlier statistics that shouldn't continue that made him worse than he was, but, we'll see if they are true outliers or not. The Indians are hoping that they were. His GB% was way below his career average and his HR/9 was well above his career average. Part of that is from pitching behind in the count a lot, so they might continue.

The focus needs to be to restore his velocity, which is something I'll probably discuss in my View from the Porch article on Saturday (subtle plug).

As far as Bauer goes I just think he can surpass Ubaldo's 1.7 WHIP and 5.5 ERA or whatever the heck he was last year regardless of whether he long tosses two minutes before the game or not. And I think he can surpass it easily.


He probably can. But, that guy NEEDS to be an ace. He absolutely has to develop to his full potential. Not for us to win that trade, but for us to be a consistent competitor in the AL Central because we'll never get a pitcher with his stuff and his potential in free agency, and potentially not in the draft either. He probably doesn't become that guy if you rush him to the Majors.

Felix Hernandez: 306.1 minor league innings
Clayton Kershaw: 220.1
CC Sabathia: 246.2
Justin Verlander is a freak of nature. He only threw 118.2 minor league innings, but he had his struggles early on. His first three full seasons, he had WHIPs of 1.33, 1.23, 1.40. In 2009, he turned into a stud.

Nothing wrong with giving Bauer another 12-15 starts in the minors, if not more.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby pup » Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:25 pm

Tell me if i am wrong cuz too lazy to google, but didany of those guys have Bauer's college innings?

Not a lot left to learn picking on minor leaugers.

But, ya know, that's just me.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Feb 07, 2013 8:46 pm

pup wrote:Tell me if i am wrong cuz too lazy to google, but didany of those guys have Bauer's college innings?

Not a lot left to learn picking on minor leaugers.

But, ya know, that's just me.


Verlander threw 335.2 innings at Old Dominion. Kershaw and Sabathia didn't go to college. King Felix was in the Show by the time he was 19. He was signed at 16.

Kershaw did have a 4.17 BB/9 over his first three seasons in the bigs.

Learning on the job may or may not be the best thing for Bauer. I don't know. I've never met him, never spoken with him, and probably never will. I have some concerns about how he would handle failure, since he's never really experienced it. By all accounts, he didn't handle it well in Arizona when he was struggling in his four starts there.

I'll trust Francona, Antonetti, and Callaway to make the right decision with his future. Personally, I don't mind seeing him make 12-15 starts in Columbus. Al can correct me if I'm wrong, but if Bauer doesn't come up until mid-June, he should clear Super Two status and give us an extra year of control.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Fri Feb 08, 2013 11:42 am

skatingtripods wrote:
pup wrote:Tell me if i am wrong cuz too lazy to google, but didany of those guys have Bauer's college innings?

Not a lot left to learn picking on minor leaugers.

But, ya know, that's just me.


Verlander threw 335.2 innings at Old Dominion. Kershaw and Sabathia didn't go to college. King Felix was in the Show by the time he was 19. He was signed at 16.

Kershaw did have a 4.17 BB/9 over his first three seasons in the bigs.

Learning on the job may or may not be the best thing for Bauer. I don't know. I've never met him, never spoken with him, and probably never will. I have some concerns about how he would handle failure, since he's never really experienced it. By all accounts, he didn't handle it well in Arizona when he was struggling in his four starts there.

I'll trust Francona, Antonetti, and Callaway to make the right decision with his future. Personally, I don't mind seeing him make 12-15 starts in Columbus. Al can correct me if I'm wrong, but if Bauer doesn't come up until mid-June, he should clear Super Two status and give us an extra year of control.


Ive seen that written elsewhere (service time concerns) and unless something has radically changed, that's going to be the case here. Tribe should know by then what kind of a team they have, and whether they want to give him the full year of seasoning or bring him in June for a push to respectabiltiy.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Feb 09, 2013 12:22 pm

Pretty happy with the latest article I've written. Found some interesting stuff on restoring pitcher velocity and the impact it would have. Used it to discuss the Scott Kazmir signing and Ubaldo Jimenez. Also, our catchers weren't very good defensively last year:

Read it if you'd like: http://www.theclevelandfan.com/clevelan ... d-catchers
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby leadpipe » Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:03 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Pretty happy with the latest article I've written. Found some interesting stuff on restoring pitcher velocity and the impact it would have. Used it to discuss the Scott Kazmir signing and Ubaldo Jimenez. Also, our catchers weren't very good defensively last year:

Read it if you'd like: http://www.theclevelandfan.com/clevelan ... d-catchers


Good article.

As far as Ubaldo, as I mentioned above, velocity is EVERYTHING. All the stats - HR and GB %'s and all that crap, all fall right in line if he's 95-96.

Period.

At 96 you ain't sitting on pitches - cause you're scared to death to get behind. There's your HR's.

At 96 you're getting guys to "cheat" out front. There's your ground balls.

And on and on.

Again, he was once 96 with movement = uncomfortable hitter.

When he's 92 all the movement does is allow guys to get ahead in the count and sit on pitches.

More important is that's the ONLY way he'll get back. People last year talking about "command" and other bullshit. The guy NEVER had command. At one time he could go 95-96. You can't get back what you never had, and you ain't developing it at this point.

So the issue is, if the guy is throwing 92 in May, thee's no way in holy hell he's gonna help the team. He'll be as brutal as he's been here, with no improvement coming. If I gotta watch that guy throw 92 for 5 months AND listen to their bullshit as to why, well, that's loser talk.

If you wanna win, you ain't runnin a 92 mile an hour throwin' Ubaldo out there - no matter what you're payin. The money is lost in this case anyway.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby jerryroche » Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:22 pm

leadpipe wrote:As far as Ubaldo, as I mentioned above, velocity is EVERYTHING. All the stats - HR and GB %'s and all that crap, all fall right in line if he's 95-96.

So the issue is, if the guy is throwing 92 in May, thee's no way in holy hell he's gonna help the team. He'll be as brutal as he's been here, with no improvement coming. If I gotta watch that guy throw 92 for 5 months AND listen to their bullshit as to why, well, that's loser talk.

If you wanna win, you ain't runnin a 92 mile an hour throwin' Ubaldo out there - no matter what you're payin. The money is lost in this case anyway.

I know there are issues with his velocity and his motion, but are there any rumors that Ubaldo might also have somewhat of a head problem? I can't believe that various coaches haven't tried to correct his motion/velocity problems in the past 1-1/2 seasons.

Could he be a head case (stubborn, at least) on top of it all?
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:38 pm

leadpipe wrote:Good article.


Thanks. I love digging into sabermetrics and statistical stuff. I agree with the your method of the eye test as well. The numbers just give support and a value to how much it's actually hurting.

As far as Ubaldo, as I mentioned above, velocity is EVERYTHING. All the stats - HR and GB %'s and all that crap, all fall right in line if he's 95-96.

Period.

At 96 you ain't sitting on pitches - cause you're scared to death to get behind. There's your HR's.

At 96 you're getting guys to "cheat" out front. There's your ground balls.

And on and on.

Again, he was once 96 with movement = uncomfortable hitter.

When he's 92 all the movement does is allow guys to get ahead in the count and sit on pitches.


Here's a breakdown of his HR by count (counts not included mean no HR):

First pitch: 4
1-0: 3
2-0: 1
2-1: 1
3-1: 4
3-2: 1
0-1: 2
0-2: 1
1-2: 2
1-1: 4
2-2: 2

A lot of fastball count HRs allowed there.

So the issue is, if the guy is throwing 92 in May, thee's no way in holy hell he's gonna help the team. He'll be as brutal as he's been here, with no improvement coming. If I gotta watch that guy throw 92 for 5 months AND listen to their bullshit as to why, well, that's loser talk.

If you wanna win, you ain't runnin a 92 mile an hour throwin' Ubaldo out there - no matter what you're payin. The money is lost in this case anyway.


Correct. I went back into my old articles and prior to last Spring Training, I chalked it up as a mechanic issue. Now, it still might be, in that he's not getting enough core and lower body drive to add velocity. Or, it may just be that his arm strength has been lessened to the point where he just has nothing on the ball.

But, you're absolutely right, LP. Unless they focus on restoring his velocity to where it is, he will hurt far more than he'll help. That's probably a six-week process, if not more. Hopefully, he shows up at camp and is sitting 94 and touching 96, 97. Hopefully, that's what he worked on this offseason.
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Re: Lineup Next Year

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Feb 09, 2013 2:43 pm

jerryroche wrote:I know there are issues with his velocity and his motion, but are there any rumors that Ubaldo might also have somewhat of a head problem? I can't believe that various coaches haven't tried to correct his motion/velocity problems in the past 1-1/2 seasons.

Could he be a head case (stubborn, at least) on top of it all?


He had a very public bitchfest about the Rockies after the trade, whining that they didn't pay him enough and that he was treated unfairly. Then, he really seemed to sulk for an extended period about being traded from the only organization he knew.

It wouldn't shock me if he had some coachability problems. I have it on good authority that Acta was not a player-friendly manager and was a "do it my way or no way" kind of skipper. Radinsky was fired during the season. The season was a lost cause when Niebla came in. Callaway and Francona may be able to get through to Jimenez, I don't know.

The velocity problem was chalked up to a hip flexor during Spring Training that never went away and a finger injury during 2011. At least, that's what everybody said, anyway. But, 2012 proves that it was more than that.
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