BP, BA release Indians top-10

[gotribe31]

I like the BP list better than BA, for what it's worth.

Baseball prospectus:
SS Francisco Lindor
2B/3B Dorssys Paulino
2B Ronny Rodriguez
RHP Mitch Brown
CF Luigi Rodriguez
RHP Danny Salazar
RHP Cody Allen
OF Tyler Naquin
IF Tony Wolters
2B Jose Ramirez

Baseball America:
1. Francisco Lindor, ss
2. Dorssys Paulino, ss
3. Tyler Naquin, of
4. Cody Allen, rhp
5. Mitch Brown, rhp
6. Danny Salazar, rhp
7. Luigi Rodriguez, of
8. Ronny Rodriguez, ss/2b
9. Jesus Aguilar, 1b
10. Chen Lee, rhp

[swerb]

How have the BP & BA lists fared over the last 5-10 years with the Tribe? Who has been more accurate?

[bookelly]

FWIR - Aguilar was dropped off the 40. I would assume he get picked up no?

[gotribe31]

FWIR - Aguilar was dropped off the 40. I would assume he get picked up no?

He was never on the 40. He just wasn't added. So he can only be picked in the Rule 5 draft, also known as the single most overrated day in baseball.

Doubt he gets picked in the Rule 5. He's not ready to hit major league pitching, and Rule 5 guys have to stay on a 25-man roster for the entire season or be offered back to their original team. I'm more worried about TJ McFarland being selected, as he's pretty much ready to pitch in the back end of an MLB rotation.

[gotribe31]

How have the BP & BA lists fared over the last 5-10 years with the Tribe? Who has been more accurate?

BP hasn't been doing the lists as long, but they've traditionally put a lot more work into them and go a little more outside the box with their thinking. BA usually has a lot of close to the majors utility guys and relief arms in their top-10 because it's "safe." BP looks more at upside and potential, while still allowing for risk.

In this year's list for instance, BA has CC Lee who is not only a reliever but a reliever coming off of TJ surgery, while BP has a guy like Jose Ramirez who isn't a sure thing by any means but offers a lot of potential. BP just does a lot more scouting in the production of their product as opposed to BA who does it more based off of stats.

[skatingtripods]

I like the BP list better than BA, for what it's worth.

You're also pretty high on Wolters and RonnyRod, so I'm not surprised you like the BP list more, as Wolters didn't even make BA and Ronny was much lower on the BA list. Little concerning that Naquin is farther down the BP list, but he only had a couple hundred PAs last season.

What are your thoughts on Mitch Brown, Al?

[motherscratcher]

FWIR - Aguilar was dropped off the 40. I would assume he get picked up no?

He was never on the 40. He just wasn't added. So he can only be picked in the Rule 5 draft, also known as the single most overrated day in baseball.

Doubt he gets picked in the Rule 5. He's not ready to hit major league pitching, and Rule 5 guys have to stay on a 25-man roster for the entire season or be offered back to their original team. I'm more worried about TJ McFarland being selected, as he's pretty much ready to pitch in the back end of an MLB rotation.

Here's what I don't get. If TJ is ready for the back of a rotation, and we have the worst rotation in baseball, how the hell is he not good enough for the back end of our rotation?

[gotribe31]

I like the BP list better than BA, for what it's worth.

You're also pretty high on Wolters and RonnyRod, so I'm not surprised you like the BP list more, as Wolters didn't even make BA and Ronny was much lower on the BA list. Little concerning that Naquin is farther down the BP list, but he only had a couple hundred PAs last season.

What are your thoughts on Mitch Brown, Al?

I love Ronny. Big fan of Wolters too, although his overall talent profile isn't quite as attractive.

I've never seen Brown pitch, but all the scouting reports I've heard about him are extremely positive. Deep arsenal of average to plus pitches, no concerns about ability to remain in the starting rotation, great makeup and pitchability. Really excited to get a look at him this spring.

[gotribe31]

FWIR - Aguilar was dropped off the 40. I would assume he get picked up no?

He was never on the 40. He just wasn't added. So he can only be picked in the Rule 5 draft, also known as the single most overrated day in baseball.

Doubt he gets picked in the Rule 5. He's not ready to hit major league pitching, and Rule 5 guys have to stay on a 25-man roster for the entire season or be offered back to their original team. I'm more worried about TJ McFarland being selected, as he's pretty much ready to pitch in the back end of an MLB rotation.

Here's what I don't get. If TJ is ready for the back of a rotation, and we have the worst rotation in baseball, how the hell is he not good enough for the back end of our rotation?

I think he is. If he's still in the org, I'm pretty sure he pitches in Cleveland at some point in 2013. He doesn't have a real swing and miss pitch so if he's not locating the ball well there's a chance that he could get lit up, but he doesn't have much more to prove in the minors at this point. He'll be one of the guys in the Huff/Gomez/Kluber/McAllister/Seddon rotation behind Masterson, Ubaldo and Carrasco to fill out the rotation this year. Christ that's a depressing group.

[motherscratcher]

Oh the humanity.

[pup]

Al,

Please define "pitchability".

[gotribe31]

Al,

Please define "pitchability".

Well, when I say it at least I'm refering to a guy with a plan on the mound. Not just a thrower, but someone who knows how to attack hitters, can pitch backwards and will learn from AB to AB and not make the same mistake twice. Using the right pitch in the right situation. Willing to let hitters get themselves out on a groundball rather than trying to be a fascist and strike everyone out all the time. The anti-Nuke LaLoosh. Doesn't mean he's a "crafty" guy (which is usually code for soft-tosser). His fastball sits consistently in the low 90's and touches 96 when he needs to.

Again, with respect to Brown, it's just what I've read in numerous scouting reports, but it's rare to hear a HS arm described in that fashion, and everyone says the same thing about him. Haven't actually seen him pitch myself, let alone in a game situation.

[skatingtripods]

Al,

Please define "pitchability".

Well, when I say it at least I'm refering to a guy with a plan on the mound. Not just a thrower, but someone who knows how to attack hitters, can pitch backwards and will learn from AB to AB and not make the same mistake twice. Using the right pitch in the right situation. Willing to let hitters get themselves out on a groundball rather than trying to be a fascist and strike everyone out all the time.

Again, with respect to Brown, it's just what I've read in numerous scouting reports, but it's rare to hear a HS arm described in that fashion, and everyone says the same thing about him. Haven't actually seen him pitch myself, let alone in a game situation.

Found this article about Brown from this past June: http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_208 ... all-player

Couple interesting quotes:

"I think whenever you go onto the field, you have to have a plan. I want to keep hitters off balance. That is usually my plan. Generally, I like to stay ahead of hitters because then I'm in control. The stats show that once you get strike one early in the count, a hitter's average dips 100 points."

"It's been a gradual progression," he said. "I don't have enough God-given talent to skate by without doing the work. It's just like anything else. If you want to achieve something special, you really have to go after it. I've stayed hungry to achieve goals. If you're satisfied, you tend to stop working."

Another thing I really like about Brown is that he's from Minnesota. Which means his arm probably hasn't been wrecked like the kids in warm weather areas. Friend of mine is on a Marshall scholarship and he said his coach loves to recruit kids from cooler climates for that exact reason.

Sounds like a really promising kid with a good arm and an even better head on his shoulders. Now, he's just gotta stay healthy.

[peeker643]

Sounds like Josh Tomlin with 3 more mph.

[skatingtripods]

Sounds like Josh Tomlin with 3 more mph.

I don't think that's very far off-base. Similar arsenal of pitches. Brown's a little bit bigger and your daughter probably won't find him as cute as Tomlin, but this seems like a reasonable comparison.

An extra 3 mph on average should make a big difference, especially if this kid can amp up to 96 or 97 once in a while.

Before anyone flies off the handle here, given Tomlin's recent performance, realize what Peeks is saying about Tomlin. He intelligently attacks hitters, pitches fearless on the inner half, and seems to have a plan in most ABs. The difference between 89 in on the hands and 93 in on the hands is pretty big. That's where Brown will hopefully separate himself.

[gotribe31]

Sounds like Josh Tomlin with 3 more mph.

I don't think that's very far off-base. Similar arsenal of pitches. Brown's a little bit bigger and your daughter probably won't find him as cute as Tomlin, but this seems like a reasonable comparison.

An extra 3 mph on average should make a big difference, especially if this kid can amp up to 96 or 97 once in a while.

Before anyone flies off the handle here, given Tomlin's recent performance, realize what Peeks is saying about Tomlin. He intelligently attacks hitters, pitches fearless on the inner half, and seems to have a plan in most ABs. The difference between 89 in on the hands and 93 in on the hands is pretty big. That's where Brown will hopefully separate himself.

I think you're giving Peek too much credit. I think he was just being a smartass.

[pod2dawg]

Here's what I don't get. If TJ is ready for the back of a rotation, and we have the worst rotation in baseball, how the hell is he not good enough for the back end of our rotation?

Me either. Luckily for him, if lose him some B.S. franchise like the Tigers or Giants will find a spot for him.

[peeker643]

Sounds like Josh Tomlin with 3 more mph.

I don't think that's very far off-base. Similar arsenal of pitches. Brown's a little bit bigger and your daughter probably won't find him as cute as Tomlin, but this seems like a reasonable comparison.

An extra 3 mph on average should make a big difference, especially if this kid can amp up to 96 or 97 once in a while.

Before anyone flies off the handle here, given Tomlin's recent performance, realize what Peeks is saying about Tomlin. He intelligently attacks hitters, pitches fearless on the inner half, and seems to have a plan in most ABs. The difference between 89 in on the hands and 93 in on the hands is pretty big. That's where Brown will hopefully separate himself.

I think you're giving Peek too much credit. I think he was just being a smartass.

I can see how'd you think that given my undeserved reputation around here.

But I was being genuine. There are benefits to guys like Tomlin who can think through 6+ innings and have the command to throw any pitch to any part of the plate. But they do have a very small margin of error. Every extra mph adds to the margin of error, but any other deficits (like control or inability to throw a given pitch in any count, again reduces that margin of error. You can't survive off a rotation full of Tomlins but having one at 4/5 isn't a bad thing.

Now, about those first three spots in the rotation....

[skatingtripods]

I can see how'd you think that given my undeserved reputation around here.

But I was being genuine. There are benefits to guys like Tomlin who can think through 6+ innings and have the command to throw any pitch to any part of the plate. But they do have a very small margin of error. Every extra mph adds to the margin of error, but any other deficits (like control or inability to throw a given pitch in any count, again reduces that margin of error. You can't survive off a rotation full of Tomlins but having one at 4/5 isn't a bad thing.

And, it helps that I know how you feel about Tomlin. You and I have talked about him before and we like his mindset and his aggressiveness. He just doesn't have the secondary stuff or the pitch speed separation to get by. Hopefully Brown, with a little more zip on his fastball and more variance in pitch speeds, can be a quality MOR starter or even a solid #2.

[Prosecutor]

Maybe Tomlin gains 2-3 mph after his TJ surgery and turns out to be a better-looking Mitch Brown.

[leadpipe]

Maybe Tomlin gains 2-3 mph after his TJ surgery and turns out to be a better-looking Mitch Brown.

If TJ surgery gives him 3 more MPH than he ever had, you're going to start to get healthy guys in line for the knife.

[Adverb Harry]

Maybe Tomlin gains 2-3 mph after his TJ surgery and turns out to be a better-looking Mitch Brown.

If TJ surgery gives him 3 more MPH than he ever had, you're going to start to get healthy guys in line for the knife.

How about surgically removing pesky fingers?

[WiscTribeFan]

After reading my copy of BA, I was just struck/depressed by the lack of impact players on that list, save Lindor.

It reads like a bunch of potential utility players and some bullpen arms, at best.