OSU-Wisconsin

[danwismar]

Game Notes:

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/osu ... elease.pdf

Okay...whaddya got?

Predictions? Scores?

[peeker643]

Game Notes:

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/osu ... elease.pdf

Okay...whaddya got?

Predictions? Scores?

Wisconsin by 4-7 or so. In the 31-24 or 28-24 range.

[Cerebral_DownTime]

OSU- 27

Wisco- 23

[Govbarney]

Hope I am Wrong but:
Wis 17 OSU 13

I see this game looking more like the MSU game and less like the Nebraska game.
Also I think Special teams is the difference.

[Sea Foam Green]

Fine, I'll be that Guy: OSU 38 Wisc 13. Wiscy doesn't have the horses on D, and is too one dimensional on offense. I think our D-line can neutralize.

[furls]

Maybe the homer in me or maybe not, but I am not too worried about this game. Everything says I should be except... the actual matchups.

Here are some pertinent stats:
-tOSU's run defense: 3.49 YPC, 107.9 YPG
-tOSU's pass defense: 6.33 YPA, 259 YPG.
-tOSU's Run Offense: 5.5YPC, 259 YPG
-tOSU's Pass Offense: 7.82 YPA, 189 YPG

Conclusions: tOSU's passing attack is a bit more efficient than it seems, but they are a run heavy offense. tOSU's defense is very strong against the run, but very susceptible to the pass. At least these are the indications from the the stats alone. Watching the games, it is pretty clear that the Buckeyes D, while it is good against the run in general, is much better against the run against Pro Set/running formation teams. Similarly, the secondary is weak in the middle and strong on the outside. More specifically, the Buckeyes struggle against formations that put the safeties in coverage against WRs. This week the Buckeyes safeties will see more TEs which can burn you, but I don't imagine they will be seeing a lot of trips to the boundary. Wisconsin's O lines up nicely for the Buckeyes.

Wisconsin's Stats:
Wisco run offense: 5.91 YPC, 385 YPG
Wisco pass offense: 7.87 YPA, 166 YPG
Wisco pass defense: 5.88 YPA, 202 YPG
Wisco Run defense: 3.37 YPA, 103.4 YPG

Wisco's D is better than you would think by the numbers. Something that is not quite as obvious from these limited stats is that Wisco runs the ball 3X for every pass, and the passing game is even more limited with their QB making only his second start this week. tOSU's offense is a little different than just about everything the badgers have played this year... how many running spread offenses with highly mobile QBs are out there? Well fortunately the Badgers played one, Nebraska. The personnel are obviously different, but the point remains the same.

[jb]

Like SFG I should respect Wosky, I guess, but I don't. I son't see much except a decent I back and alot of Big 10 "meh".

Bucks 42 - Wisky 17

Storm Klein plays his first & last meaningful game.

[noles1]

I like the Bucks in this too.

Wisky's been coming on lately but I think that's more a product of the shittiness of the Big Ten.

OSU 24
Wisconsin 16

[danwismar]

Worth noting that OSU shut down Montee Ball and the Wisky running attack last year to the tune of 89 yards for the game. Ball had 85 on 17 carries, but 40 of it was on one draw play late in the game. And that was with a better O-line that later put 3 seniors into the NFL. OSU got hurt by Russell Wilson...253 yds, 3 TD...and as they say, Russell Wilson ain't walking through that door tomorrow. The preview just went up on the front page, but I'm picking the Bucks in a close game...mostly because I think they win the line-of-scrimmage battle on both sides of the ball....and because OSU has a better quarterback.

[bac5665]

Bucks 35-13.

Our offense will hum a long just fine and we'll give up a lot of yards on the ground but play bend-don't-break and keep them out of the end zone.

[danwismar]

Storm Klein plays his first & last meaningful game.

Now, THAT's a ballsy prediction!

And one I sincerely hope was at least half in jest.

With Sabino back starting at the Sam, and Boren established now in the middle....and Shazier a stud at Will...one hopes Klein doesn't see the field...unless of course you mean he's going to make a spectacular special teams play. That would be cool with me.

[peeker643]

Storm Klein plays his first & last meaningful game.

Now, THAT's a ballsy prediction!

And one I sincerely hope was at least half in jest.

With Sabino back starting at the Sam, and Boren established now in the middle....and Shazier a stud at Will...one hopes Klein doesn't see the field...unless of course you mean he's going to make a spectacular special teams play. That would be cool with me.

Ugh... you mentioned special teams. Wonder if the Buckeyes adventures (both good and bad) continue in that regard.

[danwismar]

The kickoff coverage has actually been pretty good, with the one exception vs Purdue, when two blatant holds went uncalled and it went for a TD down the sideline.

The punt team thing just blows my mind though. I will never understand the formation with wide line splits that allows rushers to come unblocked from the middle of the formation. If you set up tight, the only way a guy can come untouched is from the outside, and at least you know where he's coming from, and you have your deep protect people ready for them, while your punter steps up in the "pocket". They made that shift last year under Fickell and never went back to the old, Tressel (successful) way. Every NFL team does it approx the same way, and you hardly ever see a punt block in the NFL.

Read somewhere recently that at one point in his decade here Tressel's teams went seven straight years without having a punt blocked. Meyer's team has had three (four?) blocked this year.

Buchanan has been fairly meh this year, although his return against yardage numbers are pretty good, and Basil has only about (not looking it up) about 6-7 attempts all year, a testament to the offense's red zone efficiency.

[danwismar]

OK, after I wrote that last post I got wondering about the TD to FG ratio from last year to this year.

In 2011 OSU attempted 19 field goals in 13 games, and Basil made 16 of 19.

This year they have attempted six in 10 games, making four. Which leaves touchdowns....

Everyone knows the offense sucked last year, but I still was surprised a bit by these totals:

Last year OSU scored 39 TD's in 13 games. This year they have already scored 55 TD's in the first 10 games.

FWIW

Edit: That's ALL TD's by the way, not offensive TD's...this year they have at least four defensive or ST touchdowns I can think of off the top of my head (Roby, Shazier pick sixes, and I think two punt block TD's)

Edit: Make it five...Corey Brown 76-yd punt return TD

[furls]

I never put a number to my prediction.... I think mid 30s to hig teens. 35-17.

[swerb]

This team is not losing this year. Urban Meyer on a bye week vs Bret Effing Bielema. Braxton the play maker, he will be the difference as usual. DL is beastly and playing inspired. Bucks play their best against the best with Urban at the helm. Statement game.

Buckeyes comfortably. One of my definite bets tomorrow. In the Furls Zone ... 37-20 I will say.

[leadpipe]

This team is not losing this year. Urban Meyer on a bye week vs Bret Effing Bielema. Braxton the play maker, he will be the difference as usual. DL is beastly and playing inspired. Bucks play their best against the best with Urban at the helm. Statement game.

Buckeyes comfortably. One of my definite bets tomorrow. In the Furls Zone ... 37-20 I will say.

I'm on the money-line vs. Bielama and a third string QB at the helm of a one-dimensional squad.

[furls]

I don't get the line on this game. I feel like I must be missing something. Buckeyes have a huge fan base (largest?), that you usually means bloated lines the other way. Why so much money on a one dimensional wisco team with a 3rd string QB?

[furls]

Little luck on the first series for the Bucks.

[furls]

That was 6 if Stoneburner can hold on to it. Man that hurts, but after the 2 Wisco drops I can't complain much.

[Cerebral_DownTime]

How many wide open drops are they gonna have?

Christ.....

[fairvis]

Bielma thinks punting from the 30 is a good idea... wow.

[furls]

Shazier is lucky he didn't get flagged, but in his defense, Ball was going to gain about 3 on that. Its not like it was going to go the distance. Wisco really doesn't scare me on 3rd and 9. I think they are going to really have to stay ahead of the downs, and you have to think that if they keep relying on the QB to move the ball he throw some picks. If he throws 30 times today and ends up with less than 2 INTs I will be impressed.

[furls]

Miller is fucking strong. He doesn't just break DB tackles, he breaks LB tackles, and DL tackles. He does stuff running the ball that you only see in Madden.

[furls]

Bucks OL is winning upfront. I think they should go power running game until Wisco shows they can stop it.

[fairvis]

PHILLY!!!

[fairvis]

Jesus, Dan, you're omniscient. Except it was a 68-yarder instead of a 76-yarder.

[furls]

Nice return right up the gut. Fuck WISCO!

[furls]

John Simon playing out of his mind. Sacks are going to be huge because Wisco will have trouble playing from behind the chains.

[Cerebral_DownTime]

Why they called the QB run on 3&7 with Wisco having 8 in the box, i'll never get.

[fairvis]

The refs actually called Wisconsin for holding. Armageddon.

[furls]

THey almost got that punt.

[fairvis]

Hyde hit that hole with authority. Untouched to the EZ.

[furls]

That was easy. I think they should be giving to Hyde and Smith more today. Wisco really hasn't done much against the OSU designed RB runs. Pepper that with some short/intermediate possession passing and they should be able to move the ball all game. Nothing scary about this Wisco D.

[furls]

DL got manhandled that entire series. You have to admire how well coached the Wisco OL are every year.

[furls]

Not the answer we were looking for after the easy Badger TD.

[furls]

OK, Bucks need to close the half here with 7 and then open the next half with 7 more!

[fairvis]

14-7 at the half. Fighting field position a lot of the 2nd quarter. Outside of the TD drive, have held Ball and company to shorter gains, and stiffened when need be.

[fairvis]

Ball does have 112 yards and a TD in the first half, though... hope we can take some time off the clock with some ground-control offense in the 2nd half and give the D a break.

[fairvis]

Simon in pure beast mode today.

[fairvis]

Repeat above.

[municipalmutt]

This game is as exciting as watching flies fucking. That's what happens when you"re playing for field position instead of points.

[furls]

The Buckeyes offense has really gone to shit in the second half. The option game is just not working for any of the plays, inverted veer, IZR, etc. The best success has come from just sending Hyde to hit the hole hard. Got a bad feeling about this game now.

[fairvis]

Holy shit, what a great play by Roby.

[municipalmutt]

Field position battle favoring Badgers.

[furls]

Is it just me or does it seem like the announcers have bucky badger underoos on?

[furls]

I think Matt Millen may actually be wearing a Montee Ball jersey.

[fairvis]

Good thing you can't tell where the ball is on that review. He probably has the first, but there's no way to see it.

[bac5665]

Game, right here. Can we stop Ball on 4 and 1?

That was one of the best goal line stops I've seen. That was phenomenal.

[municipalmutt]

Helluva stop.