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Weeden Halfway Through

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Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby peeker643 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:02 am

Natural point to check in.

Last year's QB had a passer rating of 74.6
Weeden with a 70.8

Last year's QB completed 57.2%
Weeden- 55.2

Last years QB YPA 5.9
Weeden- 6.4 YPA

Last year's QB- 14TDs, 11INTs, 32 sacks
Weeden- 9TDs, 10INTs, 13 sacks

Team last year had 4 wins. Same pace as this year.
****
Those are just some of the numbers. Any other ones that tell a story? What is the story?

The one set of numbers that bothers me is the YPA. People bitched about it with McCoy but it's nearly the same with Weeden. Is Weeden always looking to check down or was McCoy handcuffed by the same offensive philosophy as Weeden? Hard to say.

Anyway, where are you with Weeden halfway through? Are you more encourraged than you were four games through? Where does he excel, where does he need to get better, what has he improved from the pre-season and from game 4 or so?
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby RickNashEquilibrium » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:08 am

As Pup or Lead would say about baseball, I think anyone who watches the game knows who is the better quarterback, or at the very least, the one capable of leading an NFL caliber offense. Weeden passes the eye test and I've been extremely happy with the improvement in his footwork and feeling the rush. Not saying hes there yet, but I don't think anyone who's watched the game would argue he looks and acts way more comfortable in the pocket than he did in game 1 or the preseason.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Fire Marshall Bill 2.0 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:20 am

Anyway, where are you with Weeden halfway through? Are you more encourraged than you were four games through? Where does he excel, where does he need to get better, what has he improved from the pre-season and from game 4 or so?


His rating is screwed by his 5.1 the first game...throw that one away

Otherwise, stats don't mean squat to me...if they did, my money would have been on Det not the Giants :clap:

He's making good decisions on throwing the ball away in spite of that dropped gift which, for the intellectually honest, happens to every QB at some point

He outplayed Luck and Rivers was no better than him Sunday

Unfortunately for him and Colt .22, neither one of them has had a bonifide NFL HC yet

One need look no farther than the Saints sansa Peyton

Throw in the youth of the WR's and I'm fine with the progress so far

All things considered, I thought he was damn near stellar in those conditions
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby peeker643 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:24 am

Did your group go Sunday, FMB?

Also, as to the coaching, does the fact Weeden's YPA is ~ same as McCoy's, and the play calling in general has been vile change anyone's thoughts on McCoy in terms of his role in the dink and dunk?
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby neoleo » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:27 am

RickNashEquilibrium wrote:As Pup or Lead would say about baseball, I think anyone who watches the game knows who is the better quarterback, or at the very least, the one capable of leading an NFL caliber offense. Weeden passes the eye test and I've been extremely happy with the improvement in his footwork and feeling the rush. Not saying hes there yet, but I don't think anyone who's watched the game would argue he looks and acts way more comfortable in the pocket than he did in game 1 or the preseason.


This was my first thought as well.

I don't have the stats to back it up, but I also feel like Colt was consistently at this level, while Weeden had the horrific first game and the rain soaked game to bring down his numbers. I get it that bad is bad, but I'm seeing a higher ceiling from Weeden in his good games that I never saw from Colt, and there's hope there that Weeden can even out his performances with more experience and hopefully better coaching next year.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Fire Marshall Bill 2.0 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:38 am

peeker643 wrote:Did your group go Sunday, FMB?

Also, as to the coaching, does the fact Weeden's YPA is ~ same as McCoy's, and the play calling in general has been vile change anyone's thoughts on McCoy in terms of his role in the dink and dunk?


Yep!

The pansies left early but, the rest of us stayed to the end and enjoyed the kneel-down

It helped that T-Rex ran his TD right into our faces

It wasn't windy in the pound but, the west end was taking a beating and it was colder in the concourse than it was the stadium

I just don't get why people buy tickets and not clothes for the games

Get some fucking Gore Tex boots and a rain suit and a pair of sealskin gloves for crise sakes
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby motherscratcher » Tue Oct 30, 2012 11:50 am

I'm definitely encouraged by Weeden adn I'm happier with him than I thought I would be at this point. He's exhibited the ability to every kind of throw that you need to make. His ball doesn't float, even if it's not always in the right place.

It takes years to be able to snych up with receivers, understand a system, and be able to read defenses at an NFL level. It remains to be seen whether Weeded will eventually be able to do that at a Brady, Brees, Manning, etc level. It's second nature for those guys and the only way to know if it can be for Weeden is time. One thing that gives me hope is that it appears that it DID happen for Alex Smith. So it can happen.

I wish he didn't stare down his receivers as much.

It doesn't change what I think about Colt. Every game there are a few plays that Weeden attempts that Colt could never have made. Even if it doesn't result in a completion, you can see that the potential was there for the play to have worked.

Edit: I meant to say his ball DOESNT float on him. It's not always on a line but I get the sense that he puts just as much touch on it as he intends to. Whereas on deep ball it always looked to me like Colt had to rear back and heavy with all of the might that his precious little heart could muster.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby peeker643 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:14 pm

Fire Marshall Bill 2.0 wrote:The pansies left early but, the rest of us stayed to the end and enjoyed the kneel-down



So that means Donny went home about halftime?

I have no idea why people don't dress for the weather. Even my girls have figured out form follows function when dressing for games and outdoor events.

Gets back to the fact most people are fucking dumb.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby jerryroche » Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:50 pm

peeker643 wrote:Those are just some of the numbers. Any other ones that tell a story? What is the story?

How about dropped passes? I seem to remember that the Browns as a team had about 35 last season. This year, they've got 22, which puts them on track to drop 44.

Can dropped passes (depending on the situation in which they're dropped) mean as much as 8-10 points in a QB's rating?

Yeah, all QBs suffer dropped passes, but there's no hiding the fact that the Browns are leading the NFL so far this season.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Tue Oct 30, 2012 12:58 pm

motherscratcher wrote:I'm definitely encouraged by Weeden adn I'm happier with him than I thought I would be at this point. He's exhibited the ability to every kind of throw that you need to make. His ball does float, even if it's not always in the right place.

It takes years to be able to snych up with receivers, understand a system, and be able to read defenses at an NFL level. It remains to be seen whether Weeded will eventually be able to do that at a Brady, Brees, Manning, etc level. It's second nature for those guys and the only way to know if it can be for Weeden is time. One thing that gives me hope is that it appears that it DID happen for Alex Smith. So it can happen.

I wish he didn't stare down his receivers as much.

It doesn't change what I think about Colt. Every game there are a few plays that Weeden attempts that Colt could never have made. Even if it doesn't result in a completion, you can see that the potential was there for the play to have worked.


100% agree with MS here.

I was furious (and then, consequently, drunk) on draft night after they burned picks on T-Rich and Weeden. Hated the Weeden pick at the time, then hated it even more in the preseason when all of his warts showed up; staring down receivers, forcing the ball into coverage, and lack of pocket presence. Figured his ceiling would be an Alex Smith game manager, and we were stuck with that for the next 4 years and 2-3 coaches.

The last 3-4 games has surprised me. Weeden has looked like a completely different QB than the one at the start of the year, and his improvement has been noticeable in those three areas above. He's sensing the rush a little bit better, and going through his progressions. Even in the SD game, he rolled to the right and threw accurately on the move.

1. He's taking what defenses are giving him, and his touch on the deep balls is forcing them away from the line.
2. He's throwing less balls into coverage, but still has the confidence to throw in traffic. (he hit Little and Gordon yesterday with absolute lasers through multiple defenders, in garbage conditions. His confidence is still intact after some early season picks)
3. His eyes tend to stay downfield as he makes progressions, which is giving him chances at the 10+ yard completions even on his later reads)

He's shown that he's capable of playing at this level, and the things he's still doing wrong (batted balls, staring receivers down, forcing balls to covered receivers) should get better over time. When Colt was compiling the numbers he did last year, it was on dink and dunk short passes all the way down the field, which would lead to a drive sputtering when he'd misfire and be forced into a 3rd and long. He consistently threw balls behind receivers, and never opened up the downfield throws. When Weeden throws incomplete, the vast majority of the time he either overthrows the receiver or throws a good pass to a receiver that has too-tight coverage.

I'd like to see what Weeden's numbers would look like if HALF of the catchable balls he's thrown were completed (he leads the league in those, with 21+) and with that first garbage game thrown out. Bet he'd be in the top 10-12 in the league.

Wouldn't hurt if the defense was playing league average ball in order to give him a few more chances, or if they were capable of making a screen play work.

I'm FAR more impressed with the body of work than I expected to be, but i'm looking at his final exam in the upcoming weeks; Steelers defense (and some exotic blitzes) twice. Win one of those and 2-3 of the others, and i'm sold and ready for next year. I'll be happy with a 20+ td/15ish int finish to the season, probably around 5-6 wins.

First Browns season in a long time I remember watching without the hopeless feeling, and a lot of that is because every Sunday I look forward to seeing Weeden, Gordon, and T-Rich grow.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Tue Oct 30, 2012 1:05 pm

jerryroche wrote:
peeker643 wrote:Those are just some of the numbers. Any other ones that tell a story? What is the story?

How about dropped passes? I seem to remember that the Browns as a team had about 35 last season. This year, they've got 22, which puts them on track to drop 44.

Can dropped passes (depending on the situation in which they're dropped) mean as much as 8-10 points in a QB's rating?

Yeah, all QBs suffer dropped passes, but there's no hiding the fact that the Browns are leading the NFL so far this season.


Every team has them, and some of the best offenses in the league (Saints, Patriots, Green Bay) are among the league leaders. Unfortunately, few things there: the Browns don't have any kind of a defense to get the ball back, and the Packers/Lions/Saints are struggling in part because they CANT run the ball, so they have to throw every time. Browns are losing the TOP battle every week because they can't get off the field, on defense, and the drops are keeping them from sustaining drives.

Can't cherry pick stats, but both HAVE to get better in the second half. (And should, as the yoots get more experience on O+D and the D gets some of their better players back. Can't get much worse.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby RickNashEquilibrium » Tue Oct 30, 2012 2:10 pm

Gradysmanldy wrote:Browns are losing the TOP battle every week because they can't get off the field, on defense, and the drops are keeping them from sustaining drives.

Can't cherry pick stats, but both HAVE to get better in the second half. (And should, as the yoots get more experience on O+D and the D gets some of their better players back. Can't get much worse.


This this this this this +1,000,000. It stinks we gave up next year's 2nd to get Gordon, who has shown talent, but not at the expense of building a better defense through the draft next year. Here's hoping we can trade back up into the 2nd and land a starting DB or Rush DE.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby comish » Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:01 pm

Can't disagree more with what you said about Gordon. He is absolutely worth that second, is turning heads around the league, and if he stays clean may be the gem of this draft. We needed that deep guy....we got him. Worth the draft pick IMO 100 times over. If they DON'T burn that two on him, we would STILL be looking for that guy in the draft next year....I'm not sure how you can't be happy with this guy so far. Other than his big time drop against the Colts.

I feel the sky is the limit for him. Big gamble by Heckert that may be a jackpot. Isn't he leading rookie WRs in TDs....ahead of a few dudes that people were willing to sell their soul for on draft day?
We do need defense though, this I don't disagree with
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Hikohadon » Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:16 pm

I always drop the first game when I'm looking at Weeden's stats since it was such an aberration. If he were to have another game like that, then I would throw it back in the mix because then it would be a rarity but still something that could re-appear. But from what I've seen, I think saddling him with the stats from that game doesn't paint an accurate picture.

Throw out Colt's worst game from last year and see if that affects his stats that much.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby jb » Fri Nov 02, 2012 12:59 pm

Really for right now the stats means next to nothing in a vaccum. The drops (on the WR's) and batted down passes (on Weeds mostly then OL) would improve them, but that's not why I called.

Let's rewind the DVR to April & August. Weeds was talked about in terms of a prospect. The pros were big arm and a natural accuracy and passing ability, plus the raw frame, in evidence at Okie state. The alleged negatives were pocket presence, mobility and perceived inability to stand and deliver accurately or at all under pressure. Then there was the age thing that is a seperate category but really not in the scope of development.

The $ 64,000 question was whether or not the Browns found Their Guy for the near future to be the legitimate starting QB needed to emerge from the dregs of the NFL and what his ceiling may be or was Weeds another in the line of busts.

Those are the questions that form the basis for evaluation to me.

The first few games were as shakey as anyone with a brain might have expected. What we've seen since is a QB who is showing he can make all the throws, stretch the field, is reasonably accurate and shows brains. The whole pocket presence/Nancy Boy knock has shown itself to be on a scale between not-an-issue overblown or a complete myth. Weeds has shown the ability to stand and deliver under pressure without losing his head or chucking ducks. He shows he can stand in and make reasonably good decisions consistently. Other than the "welcome to the NFL" pick 6 outs that looked gawdaweful early, Weeds makes as solid decisions as anyone on a a consistent basis.

The big picture and the only question that is The Clash of questions is whether the Browns have found their strating quarterback. Only a complete retard would say "no" or hesitates to say "yes" at this point. Weeds shows an ability to be a solid starter on Sunday for a period of a half decade at least. The only question now is how good will he get, and can he get good enough to carry the team to the promised land if surrounded by talent. We shall see.

But the first bar has been solidly cleared and the Browns have their guy at the most important position on the field. That's something I really can't say has been true since minimally Vinnie in 94, and really a 2nd year BK.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby swerb » Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:07 pm

I agree with JB all the way through. I hated the pick, thought it was a reach, thought he was going to be a bust, and it is looking I was wrong. Stats mean squadoosh.

Dude can make all the throws. Doesn't play dumb and makes generally good decisions. And has been productive after a shaky start despite working with recievers that are young or suck.

8 games in is where DA went into the shitter and I do not see the same happening with Weeden.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby LarsHancock » Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:28 pm

In most of continental Africa, Weeden is over halfway through, with life expectancies well under 60 years old.

Heck, at the beginning of the 20th century the world life expectancy was only 31 years. He'd be basically dead 100 years ago!

Wait, we're over the fact he's old and are talking about him as a capable NFL QB now? Oh, my bad. You people need to make up your mind...

Carry on.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:30 pm

Shouldn't you be posting in the shitty Star Wars threads?
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby LarsHancock » Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:42 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:Shouldn't you be posting in the shitty Star Wars threads?

Dammit, you're alive. Hoped Sandy got you.

Better luck next hurricane I guess.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby jb » Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:26 pm

swerb wrote:8 games in is where DA went into the shitter and I do not see the same happening with Weeden.



I see a "process" with Weeds, to coin a phrase. I see a rookie getting better, applying lessons learned, and I have alot of agreement with the Trent Dilfer interview I dunno if it was a discussion item here.

The more I consider the DA "Era", I see it as a 9 game mid-seson hot streak, punctuated in one very ugly weather realted perfromance vs Pbgh. DA was a one note Johnny who inherited the Charlie Fry offense and burned defenses by going counter tendency deeep on the out to BE, a play Fry simply couldn't run. Winslow bialed him out with some spectacular catches on his shorter crap throws and Lewis was in his last season as a ground threat.

Once DC's game planned to take away the dimention DA added he had no counter punch.

In contrast I see Weeds making big improvements over what had been either alleged deficiencies or actual deficiencies, and doing so with a cast that is even rawer than he is. He shows brains, poise, leadership and all the good intangible crap. tangibly, he's geting better.

the ofense is still missing too many gimme's, and much of that is on Weeden. But the basics? I have no question at all he's sound. The only question now is how good can he be.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:31 pm

It's been eerie how little has been said here recently (before this thread) about Weeden, and I attribute it either to apathy or the fact that none of us expected him to be where he is at this point.

I thought he was going to suck, and specifically suck at what he's showing progress at. That first game left me completely hopeless that he'd ever be able to sense an NFL caliber pass rush or put any kind of touch on the deep ball.

Think we're all just kind of curious and interested in this point at seeing what he does in the second half, because no one has a clue what he's going to be capable of. (Where the ceiling is)
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby rk » Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:27 pm

Think we're all just kind of curious and interested in this point at seeing what he does in the second half, because no one has a clue what he's going to be capable of. (Where the ceiling is)


I wouldn't say 'no one'. Most scouts had an idea of his ceiling. He can make all the throws and is relatively immobile with good size. He's reasonable accurate and trusts his arm enough that he'll take risks to get the ball to the receiver. That puts his ceiling comp around Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, or Aaron Rogers. Keep in mind we're just talking ceiling.

The biggest question marks - arguably the main things that could prevent him from getting near his ceiling - was his ability to read defenses and his ability to respond under pressure. He's steadily showing improvement on both items. As he continues to see NFL defenses and experience the pressure that comes in a typical game - not to mention the added pressure that will hit him if the Browns' goals move past just competiting in games - we'll see where he ends up.

But I see nothing in his game to think that he can't be as capable as Matt Ryan particularly as he gets more comfortable with his receivers and their talent level continues to grow either through experience or by being replaced with more talented receivers.

Really his ceiling has -always- been easy.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby pod2dawg » Fri Nov 02, 2012 6:57 pm

Weeds is a keeper.

NEVER will be an Aron Rogers though.

His age and "pro" experience gives him
depth & perspective lost on the younger dudes. We surround him with some more reliable weapons and better play calling, he can get us there. He can't throw it and catch it...well except for that one time.

Imagine the "D" actually getting us better field position and more possessions.

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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 8:13 pm

Gradysmanldy wrote:It's been eerie how little has been said here recently (before this thread) about Weeden, and I attribute it either to apathy or the fact that none of us expected him to be where he is at this point.

I thought he was going to suck, and specifically suck at what he's showing progress at. That first game left me completely hopeless that he'd ever be able to sense an NFL caliber pass rush or put any kind of touch on the deep ball.

Think we're all just kind of curious and interested in this point at seeing what he does in the second half, because no one has a clue what he's going to be capable of. (Where the ceiling is)


Haven't said anything til posting this thread because we shared all of the opinions and thoughts before the season and had our laughs after the flag episode in Game 1. But quarter marks in a season are a natural point of reflection.

From Game 1-8 he has gotten better. Still think there's a loooooong way to go and I still think a lot of it is being caught on a field in a Studebaker of an offense while trying to keep pace with modern sports cars. Hard to do. Weeden hasn't made the two yard throws on 3rd and 9 any more palatable and his yards per attempt should dispel even the most ardent McCoy hater from putting that all on McCoy or his arm.

Agree with JB that he's missed gimmes and drops still haunt this team. 2nd time around for Ravens and as the book gets written on Weeden will be interesting in regard to whether teams pressure him more or cover more.

End of the day and I'll admit he's exceeded my expectations. I still personally don't see an elite ceiling but I do like how he's adjusted to what he's seen and faced and seems to have improved upon it.

Is he a step up from what they had? Yes. But that's not necessarily enough. Do the first 8 games make me more inclined he can be more? Yes. That's the key. FWIW, I think the OL is much improved. Love to see more chopping to help 3 have some lines to throw through but as Weeden has improved so has Schwartz and the pass blocking.

Sure would love to see TRich look like a player you'd select at #3 after trading 3 picks to move up that spot.

Learning curves are a bitch. Richardson has been fine, but "fine" ain't what I'm looking for at the price and place they took him.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:15 pm

Weedens numbers are not as important as the eye test, and he is more than passing the eye test right now. He is improving in some way each game, and he has cut down on crucial errors and seems to becoming a respectable game manager. Plus his arm is very nice.

IMO right now it is Luck in front of the rookie race, followed by RG3, then Weeds, yep. Give Luck the ROTY trophy right now, and for just sayin sake, IIRC RG3 has the lowest YPA (ball through the air) of all rooks and most of league. I will try to find the link.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:22 pm

peeker643 wrote:
Fire Marshall Bill 2.0 wrote:The pansies left early but, the rest of us stayed to the end and enjoyed the kneel-down



So that means Donny went home about halftime?

I have no idea why people don't dress for the weather. Even my girls have figured out form follows function when dressing for games and outdoor events.

Gets back to the fact most people are fucking dumb.

I will have you know I was 75% going in, perfectly dressed.....and I'm not standing in constant rain for a 1-6 regular season game. Biggest reason was I could not justify getting sick and missing funeral for a friend on Monday AM, but otherwise yeah you guessed right.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby pup » Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:26 pm

FUDU wrote:Weedens numbers are not as important as the eye test, and he is more than passing the eye test right now. He is improving in some way each game, and he has cut down on crucial errors and seems to becoming a respectable game manager. Plus his arm is very nice.

IMO right now it is Luck in front of the rookie race, followed by RG3, then Weeds, yep. Give Luck the ROTY trophy right now, and for just sayin sake, IIRC RG3 has the lowest YPA (ball through the air) of all rooks and most of league. I will try to find the link.


Erase that link.

Y/A - RG3 - 7.97 (4th in NFL)
Luck - 6.8 (well below 4th in NFL)
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby FUDU » Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:57 pm

IIRC it was stated on this past Monday, AY , air yards (total passing yards minus YAC, and forward of line of scrimmage). RG3 was at 3.9ish Luck at 5.5ish. Relevance was regarding comp% in that he is throwing much larger % of very short passes, supported by %deep numbers. Again do not quote me just yet.

I think you are referencing traditional YPA, which does include YAC.

Also RG3 has a 20pt higher %YAC than Luck, again just restating what I recall from early week.

Sorry for confusion above I thought I clarified the AY stat.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby pup » Sat Nov 03, 2012 12:42 am

FUDU wrote:IIRC it was stated on this past Monday, AY , air yards (total passing yards minus YAC, and forward of line of scrimmage). RG3 was at 3.9ish Luck at 5.5ish. Relevance was regarding comp% in that he is throwing much larger % of very short passes, supported by %deep numbers. Again do not quote me just yet.

I think you are referencing traditional YPA, which does include YAC.

Also RG3 has a 20pt higher %YAC than Luck, again just restating what I recall from early week.

Sorry for confusion above I thought I clarified the AY stat.


You have to have a serious agenda to consider removing YAC...IMO. Not you, but whoever is spouting those numbers you are recalling. Amazing people keep coming up with new stats to prove their point.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby peeker643 » Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:04 am

pup wrote:You have to have a serious agenda to consider removing YAC...IMO.

Amazing people keep coming up with new stats to prove their point.


Redundant. ;-) ;) :wink:

Weeden supporters will find numbers and eliminate one entire game.

Weeden critics will find numbers and overemphasize one entire game.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Prosecutor » Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:52 am

Normally I like stats but in this case it's really apples to oranges. McCoy had Pashos at RT and a rookie starting at LG, hence the 32 sacks versus only 13 for Weeden.

McCoy had Brian Robiskie starting the first few games and Little was a rookie who hadn't played the year before.

Weeden had one game with extremely difficult throwing conditions, which was not the case in the first half of last season.

McCoy was in his second season; Weeds is a rookie.

Both QB's had a lot of drops, and many of the dropped balls on Weeds were by Marecic on plays that would not have gained a yard even if they were complete.

I don't think there's much to be learned by comparing Weeden's first half stats to those of McCoy and Wallace last year. Weeden has better protection, better receivers, and a better running back. McCoy had more game experience and an easier schedule.

The trend line is what's important. Weeden threw four picks in his first game. He's thrown one in his last three games, and that was on a batted pass at the LOS.

Now that Benjamin and Massa are healthy to augment Gordon and Little, not to mention the addition of Weeden's OSU buddy Josh Cooper, I expect to see some consistently good numbers the rest of the year.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Gradysmanldy » Sat Nov 03, 2012 10:43 am

From Game 1-8 he has gotten better. Still think there's a loooooong way to go and I still think a lot of it is being caught on a field in a Studebaker of an offense while trying to keep pace with modern sports cars. Hard to do. Weeden hasn't made the two yard throws on 3rd and 9 any more palatable and his yards per attempt should dispel even the most ardent McCoy hater from putting that all on McCoy or his arm.


I'll put 50% of it on Colt's arm, 50% on the rest of the factors. (Shit RT, Shit RB's, and Shit receivers.....no camp, etc)

Fact is the Browns have already completed something like 28 balls at 20+ yards, and all of last year they completed around 30. (too lazy to get the exact stat, but its close or on that)

Weeden is capable of going downfield, Colt never showed the ability. When he tried, it was Brady Quinn esque.

Guy has the capability of being able to play at an elite level, once he gets the read of the defense down. Colt is capable of managing a game and winning with the pieces in place. I think that's where were at.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby FUDU » Sat Nov 03, 2012 11:07 am

pup wrote:
FUDU wrote:IIRC it was stated on this past Monday, AY , air yards (total passing yards minus YAC, and forward of line of scrimmage). RG3 was at 3.9ish Luck at 5.5ish. Relevance was regarding comp% in that he is throwing much larger % of very short passes, supported by %deep numbers. Again do not quote me just yet.

I think you are referencing traditional YPA, which does include YAC.

Also RG3 has a 20pt higher %YAC than Luck, again just restating what I recall from early week.

Sorry for confusion above I thought I clarified the AY stat.


You have to have a serious agenda to consider removing YAC...IMO. Not you, but whoever is spouting those numbers you are recalling. Amazing people keep coming up with new stats to prove their point.


That stat (AY) has been aruond for about 6-7 yars pup, it's part of the advanced NFL stat era we're in. So like most of those stats I'm sure the intention of it was for further analysis and an extra avenue to pinpoint value of a player's performance etc. It was concocted before RG3 was 17yo, so I don't think it was invented to critique just him.

Sorry but I don't have an agenda, as much as we all like to assume each other does. I brought it up as an example of a way in which one can evaluate some subtle yet rather important differences between two QBs, in this case two rookies RG3 & Luck (not RG3 & Weeden). As far as the value of that stat, and removing YAC as you state is agenda driven, it more accurately assesses (sp) context of the QBs role in said play. If Luck throws a pass to the LOS and Wayne runs through 2 levels of 7 defenders to gain 60 yds Luck would get credited with a pass attempt of 60 yards (as that stat includes gained yards). You can see the point from there I assume. RG3 is doing much more of that than Luck, that was the bottom line of the analysis when that stat was mentioned in the show.

EOD it is a stat, but a more useful and accurate one in the correct context, and while stats are just that stats, some stats do trump other stats. Stats in general don't trump other things though, I assume we all agree on that.

I hope I typed the word stats enough to piss off CDT, actually we should come up with a stat for measuring how often CDT gets pissed off.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Fire Marshall Bill 2.0 » Sat Nov 03, 2012 12:55 pm

Fact is the Browns have already completed something like 28 balls at 20+ yards, and all of last year they completed around 30


This ^^^^^^...and that ^^^^^^^ is part of the receipe for T-Rex's success to date

To wit...the Browns now have the possibility to beat teams with the deep ball....if those assholes calling plays would throw more of them

...and if there's one stat I'd like to see its what is the first play called in every game in every Browns first possession...let me guess...Metcalf up,,,,errrr,,,,TR up the middle
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby FUDU » Sat Nov 03, 2012 1:07 pm

Bill I believe they've run an end around as first play once and threw some nice 7-9yd slants at least twice to open games, to Shurmur's cred.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby leadpipe » Sat Nov 03, 2012 2:20 pm

Both would benefit form the old "coach with a pulse."
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby LakeErieWarriors » Sat Nov 03, 2012 7:43 pm

Late to the thread and don't feel like reading all the posts so sorry if I rehash some previous takes.

It's nice to see one of the Browns QB draft picks' game actually translate from college to the pros. Part of his successes compared to others' failures can be linked to the fact that he's getting much better protection than our previous rooks have gotten in the past.

Also, how would our opinions be of Weeds if the WR's only had half the drops that they've had. Several of these drops woulda counted for 6 points.

I think he's doing a well above-average job so far this season after being thrown into this mess known as the Cleveland Browns. Couple games were terrible esp. week 1, and the game against the Giants. But after the Giants game he said he'd build between the ears and learn how to avoid picks. He's done a pretty good job living up to that promise, I think.

One thing I want him to fix now is tipped and batted balls, which, also require a little better protection.

Get this guy a legit #1 WR with the cast we've already got, and I see a really competent offense.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Hikohadon » Sat Nov 03, 2012 7:45 pm

Prosecutor wrote:Normally I like stats but in this case it's really apples to oranges. McCoy had Pashos at RT and a rookie starting at LG, hence the 32 sacks versus only 13 for Weeden.

McCoy had Brian Robiskie starting the first few games and Little was a rookie who hadn't played the year before.

Weeden had one game with extremely difficult throwing conditions, which was not the case in the first half of last season.

McCoy was in his second season; Weeds is a rookie.

Both QB's had a lot of drops, and many of the dropped balls on Weeds were by Marecic on plays that would not have gained a yard even if they were complete.

I don't think there's much to be learned by comparing Weeden's first half stats to those of McCoy and Wallace last year. Weeden has better protection, better receivers, and a better running back. McCoy had more game experience and an easier schedule.

The trend line is what's important. Weeden threw four picks in his first game. He's thrown one in his last three games, and that was on a batted pass at the LOS.

Now that Benjamin and Massa are healthy to augment Gordon and Little, not to mention the addition of Weeden's OSU buddy Josh Cooper, I expect to see some consistently good numbers the rest of the year.


Comparing Weeden to McCoy is useless since McCoy was useless.

The second he was drafted, Weeden was already better than McCoy. Stats of any nature don't change that.

But we don't want "better than McCoy" to be some kind of measuring stick. Instead, measure Weeden against the rest of the NFL QB's. Which current starters in the rest of the NFL would you say NO to if that team offered them to you straight up for Weeden?

PS - For the love of Charlie Brown, stop using yards per attempt as some kind of measure that means something. Yards per completion? Sure. Yards per attempt? Easily skewed by drops or deep incompletions. A dumb measure. It's like grading Richardson on "Yards per play" and including the team's 51 pass plays.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby pup » Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:55 pm

FUDU wrote:
pup wrote:
FUDU wrote:IIRC it was stated on this past Monday, AY , air yards (total passing yards minus YAC, and forward of line of scrimmage). RG3 was at 3.9ish Luck at 5.5ish. Relevance was regarding comp% in that he is throwing much larger % of very short passes, supported by %deep numbers. Again do not quote me just yet.

I think you are referencing traditional YPA, which does include YAC.

Also RG3 has a 20pt higher %YAC than Luck, again just restating what I recall from early week.

Sorry for confusion above I thought I clarified the AY stat.


You have to have a serious agenda to consider removing YAC...IMO. Not you, but whoever is spouting those numbers you are recalling. Amazing people keep coming up with new stats to prove their point.


That stat (AY) has been aruond for about 6-7 yars pup, it's part of the advanced NFL stat era we're in. So like most of those stats I'm sure the intention of it was for further analysis and an extra avenue to pinpoint value of a player's performance etc. It was concocted before RG3 was 17yo, so I don't think it was invented to critique just him.

Sorry but I don't have an agenda, as much as we all like to assume each other does. I brought it up as an example of a way in which one can evaluate some subtle yet rather important differences between two QBs, in this case two rookies RG3 & Luck (not RG3 & Weeden). As far as the value of that stat, and removing YAC as you state is agenda driven, it more accurately assesses (sp) context of the QBs role in said play. If Luck throws a pass to the LOS and Wayne runs through 2 levels of 7 defenders to gain 60 yds Luck would get credited with a pass attempt of 60 yards (as that stat includes gained yards). You can see the point from there I assume. RG3 is doing much more of that than Luck, that was the bottom line of the analysis when that stat was mentioned in the show.

EOD it is a stat, but a more useful and accurate one in the correct context, and while stats are just that stats, some stats do trump other stats. Stats in general don't trump other things though, I assume we all agree on that.

I hope I typed the word stats enough to piss off CDT, actually we should come up with a stat for measuring how often CDT gets pissed off.


Don't want to go tit for tat on this. I said I wasn't speaking about you pulling the stat as part of an agenda...but it is certainly a stat that was brought up as part of an agenda.

So a QB in an offense that utilizes short throws but puts those routes in combination to produce big plays is means the QB is not as "good"?
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby peeker643 » Sat Nov 03, 2012 10:25 pm

I'll be fine with Weeden when they give him more than half the field on every play and when they stop treating the checkdown like it's a binkie.

Then I'll say he has a chance to be more than "JBTC".

And I'm fine with YP/A. So is everyone in the world too. I remember no one disputing its relevancy last season.

QB A completes 1/10 for 75 yds and no TDS and QB goes 6/6 for 90 yards and YPC tells me what?

Meh...

Any of 'em in a vacuum are useless...
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby FUDU » Sat Nov 03, 2012 11:29 pm

pup wrote:Don't want to go tit for tat on this. I said I wasn't speaking about you pulling the stat as part of an agenda...but it is certainly a stat that was brought up as part of an agenda.

So a QB in an offense that utilizes short throws but puts those routes in combination to produce big plays is means the QB is not as "good"?

So you're not saying I have an agenda, but I'm the one who brought up the stat...? How does that not imply from you that I have the agenda? Frankly I don't care either way, but your post is rather muddy.

Most of the hype about this rookie class is on RG3, and much of that attention gets drawn from his high completion %. The analysis that broke down a somewhat significant part of that was about the context of his throws (tied into what he is being asked to do from his staff due to their offense). That led to the AY stat being introduced into the analysis, and as a point of comparison they chose Luck, who the said stat showed was doing more (in part b/c his offense asks him to) with his throws (and the %deep inherently complimented that analysis). This was all in the context of the same question of the OP, looking at the better rookie QBs at the 8-9 game mark. The discussion was for the sake of pointing out once you get past the surface of the basic numbers the media and fans see, Luck is a ways ahead of everyone and should be getting more of the attention as the more successful QB/ROTY candidate. As if anyone but Indy fan or Redskin fan gives a flying fuck.

Personally I think RG3 is good, and deserves plenty of attention.

As to YAC, that is as useless a stat as any stat ever, when included in the calculations of other statistics, which it is for some of the stats used to evaluate QBs. YPA traditionally shows us the approach of an offense and to some degree the success of said passing game, but it is not without a flaw either.
By definition, Yards per Attempt (YPA) = Yards gained per pass attempt. Inherently YAC is part of that. Again, qbA tosses his first pass three yards past the LOS and it goes for 60, YPA is 60. QB didn't really do shit, but the number makes him and the offense look good.

I'm sure at some point all that will be twisted as I hate RG3 and think Weeden is the best QB ever, but I can't control that. What I can control is how many little fucks get any of my Reese Cups.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby mattvan1 » Sat Nov 03, 2012 11:35 pm

YPA is a better indicator of the efficiency of the overall passing game than it is individual QB performance.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby leadpipe » Sun Nov 04, 2012 10:30 am

Analyzing young QB's - perhaps the definition of never finding a stat that beats watching them play.

I brought up last week or so, and mentioned how he handles himself in certain areas and goes thru progressions. (And you absolutely can see a QB going thru his progressions from your living room. Plays developing? Not so much. But you can see a guy moving from option to option) Anyways, two things stick out to me with him, that I don't see as much in the others 1. He seems to have struck a nice balance between the risk of getting the ball downfield vs. a turnover. In laymans terms, he ain't afraid - with "not being stupid" mixed in. and B. He's had some opportunities to come up big at key times, and for the most part has done so (that 3rd down step-thru throw in OT last week was money)

Also, outside of the Cardinals and Bears, Indy has about the sorriest O-line in the league.

All three guys are on fractured teams. Weeden ain't getting any help from a dim coach or recievers that can't catch. But Indy has about the same garbage as last year, and they are gonna triple their win total from last year, at least.

Lastly, if I'm a Skins fan, I'm far more interested in RGIII's development in the skills that aren't tied to his athleticism. Cause 4 years from now he ain't gonna be leaving the pocket helter skelter as he is now. Just is not going to happen. Guys learn lessons quick at this level. This wil happen BEFORE the hits from the league cause him to slow. Now, I'm not saying RG can't get the Skins thru games from the pocket, but make no mistake about it, for the bulk of his career, that's where he's gonna need to get them thru games from.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby pup » Sun Nov 04, 2012 10:51 am

FUDU wrote:
pup wrote:Don't want to go tit for tat on this. I said I wasn't speaking about you pulling the stat as part of an agenda...but it is certainly a stat that was brought up as part of an agenda.

So a QB in an offense that utilizes short throws but puts those routes in combination to produce big plays is means the QB is not as "good"?

So you're not saying I have an agenda, but I'm the one who brought up the stat...? How does that not imply from you that I have the agenda? Frankly I don't care either way, but your post is rather muddy.

Most of the hype about this rookie class is on RG3, and much of that attention gets drawn from his high completion %. The analysis that broke down a somewhat significant part of that was about the context of his throws (tied into what he is being asked to do from his staff due to their offense). That led to the AY stat being introduced into the analysis, and as a point of comparison they chose Luck, who the said stat showed was doing more (in part b/c his offense asks him to) with his throws (and the %deep inherently complimented that analysis). This was all in the context of the same question of the OP, looking at the better rookie QBs at the 8-9 game mark. The discussion was for the sake of pointing out once you get past the surface of the basic numbers the media and fans see, Luck is a ways ahead of everyone and should be getting more of the attention as the more successful QB/ROTY candidate. As if anyone but Indy fan or Redskin fan gives a flying fuck.

Personally I think RG3 is good, and deserves plenty of attention.

As to YAC, that is as useless a stat as any stat ever, when included in the calculations of other statistics, which it is for some of the stats used to evaluate QBs. YPA traditionally shows us the approach of an offense and to some degree the success of said passing game, but it is not without a flaw either.
By definition, Yards per Attempt (YPA) = Yards gained per pass attempt. Inherently YAC is part of that. Again, qbA tosses his first pass three yards past the LOS and it goes for 60, YPA is 60. QB didn't really do shit, but the number makes him and the offense look good.

I'm sure at some point all that will be twisted as I hate RG3 and think Weeden is the best QB ever, but I can't control that. What I can control is how many little fucks get any of my Reese Cups.


Christ.

I took it as someone (not you) went searching for a stat that shows Luck is having a better year than RG3. They found one. THEN, you happened to hear it and pass it along. If I had the impression it was YOU going and looking for the stat, then I would say YOU had the agenda. I took it as you passing along something you heard for the sake of conversation. So the person who you heard the stat from is the one with the agenda.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby pup » Sun Nov 04, 2012 10:53 am

To me, Weeden has made solid progression through his rookie season. The big thing will be how he handles the off season and progresses into year 2. I think that is the point where his age matters. He needs to make a bigger leap from year 1 to year 2 than your normal first round rookie QB.

He can play like a rookie as a rookie, but he needs to play like a veteran in year 2. Preferably about a four year veteran.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby FUDU » Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:16 am

Completely agree that next year Weeden has to play more as a vet than as a second year guy.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Hikohadon » Sun Nov 04, 2012 11:34 am

peeker643 wrote:I'll be fine with Weeden when they give him more than half the field on every play and when they stop treating the checkdown like it's a binkie.

Then I'll say he has a chance to be more than "JBTC".

And I'm fine with YP/A. So is everyone in the world too. I remember no one disputing its relevancy last season.

QB A completes 1/10 for 75 yds and no TDS and QB goes 6/6 for 90 yards and YPC tells me what?

Meh...

Any of 'em in a vacuum are useless...


That's a good argument. Fine, they're both useless.

I suppose I could argue that your example in YPC shows that QBA at least throws the ball down the field, but that could've been a 75 yard screen pass. And YPA can be skewed by so many factors that I don't know why anyone bothers.

All stats are only as useful if they support the point you're trying to make. The eye test is the key.

PS - Who the hell thought it was a valid stat last year? I've never found that stat useful in any way.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby peeker643 » Sun Nov 04, 2012 1:09 pm

Hikohadon wrote:
peeker643 wrote:I'll be fine with Weeden when they give him more than half the field on every play and when they stop treating the checkdown like it's a binkie.

Then I'll say he has a chance to be more than "JBTC".

And I'm fine with YP/A. So is everyone in the world too. I remember no one disputing its relevancy last season.

QB A completes 1/10 for 75 yds and no TDS and QB goes 6/6 for 90 yards and YPC tells me what?

Meh...

Any of 'em in a vacuum are useless...


That's a good argument. Fine, they're both useless.

I suppose I could argue that your example in YPC shows that QBA at least throws the ball down the field, but that could've been a 75 yard screen pass. And YPA can be skewed by so many factors that I don't know why anyone bothers.

All stats are only as useful if they support the point you're trying to make. The eye test is the key.

PS - Who the hell thought it was a valid stat last year? I've never found that stat useful in any way.


I don't know. It's probably more, as noted above, a reflection of the offense and not so much the QB. The top 6 or so in YPA last season are the elite of the league (which also has to be considered better teams as well, for sure).

YPA is far more commonly used too.

And numbers are malleable depending on which side of the argument you'd like to make. But if you watch the coach's tape you'll see that Weeden has been relieved of half the field on his drops and reads. That's fine for now. Probably smart. You can see they went about that after game 1 when maybe they were just trying to figure out what they had and who he was.

And it's not year two where QBs typically burst out, it's year 3. After a year to learn and another to get comfortable in their system, refine their skills and knowledge, make year 3 second nature. That puts Weeden at 31. That's also assuming he doesn't need to learn another system next year which will delay the development whether people want to believe it or not. So add another year? That's where age comes in and I disagree with JB. Had Weeden been an All Pro from Day One it wouldn't matter (and you wouldn't have gotten him at 22).

And all of that, player, coach, team, roster, organization are what I considered when hating the pick (not the player- I think he'd be fine+ somewhere else).

He has gotten better though in processing info and doing so more quickly. He can make throws that Cuddles could not (but that 85-90% of the league already could).

He's not the problem right now. I just disagree he was ever the answer and I believe that resources would have been better allocated. But you know that.

I do think if you change systems with coaches when the year ends there is a better than coin flip chance that they draft another one high.
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Re: Weeden Halfway Through

Unread postby Hikohadon » Sun Nov 04, 2012 1:58 pm

I honestly cannot remember anyone anywhere citing YPA before you started doing it this season. But it's very possible that I just never paid attention because it's such a dumb stat.

And yes I would agree that it is a better measure of a team than a player, since the QB's with the highest YPA's also probably had WR's with few drops and high YAC.

But if Weeden were #1 in YPA it wouldn't mean he was anywhere near elite.

As far as the age is concerned... not worried about him being 31 in his 3rd year if that's when he hits his peak. I'll start worrying about his age in 6 or 7 years when he's 34 or 35.

I totally disregard the age issue at this point and just concentrate on if the guy can become "elite" or not. And any QB should be a maximum capacity by year 3, no matter what the challenges. If you're still waiting for him to "develop" after that, odds are really good you'll be waiting forever.
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