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FINALLY ... Saturday NCAAF Selections

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FINALLY ... Saturday NCAAF Selections

Unread postby swerb » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:43 am

Buckeyes opener, first weekend of college football, nothing planned today outside of the regular kid watching duties. Time to lockdown for 17 straight hours of television.

Going to post my plays by stars this year. A star for me is $20.

A lot of line movements to and past key thresholds this week, and I'm on the side of alot of the teams the public has been on. That scares me, but not as much in week one when I think alot of lines NEED corrected. I wish I would have had time to do my research earlier in the week, when I would have been able to get alot more line value in many of my plays. Hopefully it doesn't bite me in the arse.

0-0

3* Marshall +22 at West Virginia

West V is overrated. Marshall has been lobbying for this matchup for many years, finally got it ... they will come to play. In a similar spot with a worse team, Marshall hung at Va Tech last year. West V was 9-2 ATS last year, things correct themselves and it starts here. Also, bad weather is expected. I like Marshall to keep this game within a TD or 2, and jumped all over the 22 this morning.

2* Indiana -7 vs Western Mich

I like Indiana this year, they will be better. I like Hoeppner, I like their QB Powers. Hoeppner is an ex MAC coach (Mia OH), so he won't take WMich lightly. WMich was 7-4 SU last year, and return 14 starters, so the spread stays light here ... but Indiana is the much better team, at home in the opener, laying no more than a TD. I like the Hoosiers today.

2* Utah +3 at UCLA

Hands down, Utah has been by far the best road dog in the nation the last 10 years, and find themselves getting a FG at UCLA to start this season. UCLA has a new QB, a bad defense, and are coming off a season where they were almost perfect at home, which helps make this line 3 despite the fact Utah is the better team. This should be a good game, down to the wire, coinflip who wins ... so I gladly take the 3 with the Utes.

1* Wisconsin -10.5 vs BG

1st game of the non Alvarez era, played in Cleveland stadium. Liked this game all week, the move to 10.5 freaked me a little bit.

1* Nebraska -23.5 vs La Tech

Almost played this as a 2*, again line movement from 21 to 23.5 spooked me. Bklackshirts D should be incredible this year, and the offense has another year under Callahan. This should be a blowout.

1* Hawaii +15.5 at Alabama

Hawaii is a brutasl road team, but with a bye next week and a game against a foe they are familair with (played Bama 2 years in a row, beat em last year) ... I think the Rainbow Warriors can stay within the # this year against a Bama team the linesmakers are giving too much credit to this week.

1* Pitt -3.5 vs Virginia

Fuck you Pitt. Every year I go down this raod with these worthless pricks. It's like I can't stop betting them. And I hate Pitt. Again, I like them in this spot though.

1* Georgia Tech +7 vs Notre Dame

Notre Dame is overrated. Their normally tough schedule was a fraud last year due to down years from teams like Tennessee, Purdue, Washington, Air Force, et al ... and they were exposed by the Bucks in Tempe. Gailey is a good coach that has played well against ranked teams at home. I think this will be a great game tonight as ABCs 1st 8 PM Sat night tilt.

1* Houston -14.5 at Rice

Rice sheperds in a new offensive system without the right talent to do it. While this is a Rice home game, the teams play in the same city and there will likely be more Cougar fans in attendance. I like Houston this year, and like Kolb their QB. Would have been a 2* game for me had the spread not leaked above 14.

1* Vandy +26.5 at Michigan

I'll be honest, this is the only game of worth on at noon, and I can't start the season off with no money on the first Saturday afternoon game. Plus, the spread on this one has swelled 2.5 pts this week. Michigan is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 Big House openers, and Vandy is 8-1 as a road dog the last 2 years.

May add a couple more games later. Still can't get my hands around the Cal-Tenn, Auburn-Wazzou, and USC-Arkansas games ... three of the better ones on the slate today. They are all later games, and I am still looking at all 3 and a couple of others.
Last edited by swerb on Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Unread postby furls » Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:51 am

Ohio State vs. NIU

Even at 10-12 I like the over, if you must have something on the game today. Stay away from the game because I really dont like Coach Tressel to cover spreads over 14. The Bucks can cover it, but I think Coach T will reign them in making it hard to cover that 17.

I love the over, explosive Buckeyes offense, suspect undersized NIU defense. Then you get the added benefit of a good NIU offense seeing some trash time. Additionally, should the Bucks defense be as troubled as some think this could end up being some type of shootout.

I think the OVER is solid.
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Unread postby GreatGoo » Sat Sep 02, 2006 10:55 am

This years (3-0) :shock:

Saturday Picks-

Wisc (-11)

Michigan (-27)


GOOD LUCK
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Unread postby yargs7 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 11:15 am

$30 per Unit. Started off with a 3 unit winner Thursday thanks to The Golden Gophers giving the Golden Flashes a Golden Whoopin.

Texas -41.5 over N. Texas-2 units

No Vince? No problem. UNT is 0-9 ATS vs Non-conference opponents in the past 3 seasons. Texas has enough talent around Freshman QB Colt McCoy to put up 56 regardless of his inexperience. Longhorns 56-0

Cal -2 over Tennesse-2 units

Cal is good. Tennessee stinks. Vols 2-11 in Knoxville against the number since 03. 24-14 Bears


Ohio State -17 vs No. Ill-2units

The Bucks are on a roll vs the srpead covering 8 straight. Northern Illinois is no cupcake, but eventually, they will be overwhelmed with talent, speed, and depth. Bucks pull away late in the third. 41-14 BUCKEYES

Oregon -12 vs Stanford-1 unit

Only one unit because the trends don't lead me to make this play. Oregon was a very good team last year and they were young. They averaged 37.4 pts per game and should not slow down this year. Plus the website where I get my info says the line should be -18, so that's worthy of a one star play. DUCKS 38-20

So Miss +21 @ Florida-1 unit

I am not sold on Urban Meyer's offense yet. I am not sold on Chris Leak in that system either. This isn't Spurrier's FLorida. They do have a great defense, and that should be enough to get them past the Eagles. 24-13 Gators
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Unread postby swerb » Sat Sep 02, 2006 3:30 pm

Adding three more for now ...

1* Clemson - Fla Intenational over 42.5
1* Stanford +12 at Oregon
1* Cal -2.5 at Tennessee
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Unread postby swerb » Sat Sep 02, 2006 6:56 pm

Two more to finish off the night ...

1* Washington St +14.5 at Auburn
1* BYU +6.5 at Arizona
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Unread postby swerb » Sun Sep 03, 2006 6:03 am

Just barely come out on the positive side yesterday. I was a Marshall cover away from a +$130 day.

9-6 (+$2)

3* 0-1
2* 1-1
1* 8-4
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Unread postby yargs7 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:00 pm

I played some late games that I didnt post on here last night. USC, BYU, GT and UTAH. Went 3-1 there. Had a great day. I was terribly wrong about Cal/Tennessee.

Finished the day 6-3. Making me a whopping 7-3 so far this season and plus 9 units.

Who do you guys like today?

I haven't looked at anything yet, but I will be back later.
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Unread postby johnnyo » Tue Sep 05, 2006 6:36 am

Rich:

Hope you didn't get hurt jumping all over those 22 pts. my Mountaineers were giving the Blundering Turd.... It breaks my heart that you would pick against the Mounties....

I thought you loved me....
Ride it like you stole it.
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Unread postby swerb » Tue Sep 05, 2006 7:54 am

Johnny O, I'll always have a place in my heart for the Mountaineers due to you & Figs love of em. However, business is business. I didn't like em in that spot.

Luckily ... I went 10-5 in my other plays this week.
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