googleeph2 wrote:Cerebral_DownTime wrote:If you're so worried about over spending, you should be screaming for defense cuts from atop Pike's Peak.
I hear you.
I read you.
Moderators: peeker643, swerb, Ziner
by googleeph2 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:54 am
googleeph2 wrote:Cerebral_DownTime wrote:If you're so worried about over spending, you should be screaming for defense cuts from atop Pike's Peak.
I hear you.
by Cerebral_DownTime » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:56 am
googleeph2 wrote:googleeph2 wrote:Cerebral_DownTime wrote:If you're so worried about over spending, you should be screaming for defense cuts from atop Pike's Peak.
I hear you.
I read you.
by Cerebral_DownTime » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:59 am
by peeker643 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:01 pm
Cerebral_DownTime wrote:googleeph2 wrote:peeker643 wrote:I didn't watch.
If you like, google Andrew Sullivan for a lib blog account of the debate.
Bottom line for me: Libs now are way further to the left than back when I was born. JFK's don't overtax/people need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps when possible/ strong defense as the deterrence for war? I'm on board. But today, libs frame that as extreme right. I wonder when they will stop moving to the left- where are the limits?
The left promotes some good concepts, but right now, we need to guard against being in so much debt that we eventually end up printing so much money that inflation starts ramping up. Greece could happen anywhere- having so much debt that drastic austerity measures must be enforced in order to recover. People who were promised stuff, and can't get it- and people who had govt jobs and have lost them- are furious. And if we (our kids) get in that situation, there won't be a Germany there, ready to bail us out.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/richard-b ... view=print
And the right has moved just as far.
There is no center anymore....... other than JB and Peeks that is.
by Cerebral_DownTime » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:04 pm
by peeker643 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:11 pm
Cerebral_DownTime wrote:Excellent post debate opinion piece on the debate.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... _blog.html
by Cerebral_DownTime » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:15 pm
peeker643 wrote:Cerebral_DownTime wrote:Excellent post debate opinion piece on the debate.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... _blog.html
Question I have is a general one: if people watched the debate and processed what they saw, why do they need to visit various media outlets to read other opinions (which can be affected by bias)?
In theory, if you're of voting age and have access to the debate, why is it necessary to look elsewhere for thoughts and opinions on who won, who lost, what went down, etc?
If you didn't see it and you get opinion, isn't there chance you're affected based on your biases and those of the media outlet?
Not a shot at you for the link, but I can't help but wonder why informed people need to rely on other outlets after watching what went down. Kind of like why I don't read Game recaps or stories after seeing the game. I already saw what happened and have formed an opinion based on what went down.
by Adverb Harry » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:17 pm
by peeker643 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:22 pm
Cerebral_DownTime wrote:peeker643 wrote:Cerebral_DownTime wrote:Excellent post debate opinion piece on the debate.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... _blog.html
Question I have is a general one: if people watched the debate and processed what they saw, why do they need to visit various media outlets to read other opinions (which can be affected by bias)?
In theory, if you're of voting age and have access to the debate, why is it necessary to look elsewhere for thoughts and opinions on who won, who lost, what went down, etc?
If you didn't see it and you get opinion, isn't there chance you're affected based on your biases and those of the media outlet?
Not a shot at you for the link, but I can't help but wonder why informed people need to rely on other outlets after watching what went down. Kind of like why I don't read Game recaps or stories after seeing the game. I already saw what happened and have formed an opinion based on what went down.
The same reason I read Dan, Dave, and Jesse's articles on the Buckeye game I just watched. I don't know everything and I don't see everything.
Looking elsewhere for consenting or dissenting opinions is human nature. It makes us more informed.
by googleeph2 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:23 pm
Cerebral_DownTime wrote:Looking elsewhere for consenting or dissenting opinions is human nature. It makes us more informed.
by Cerebral_DownTime » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:38 pm
peeker643 wrote:Cerebral_DownTime wrote:peeker643 wrote:Cerebral_DownTime wrote:Excellent post debate opinion piece on the debate.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... _blog.html
Question I have is a general one: if people watched the debate and processed what they saw, why do they need to visit various media outlets to read other opinions (which can be affected by bias)?
In theory, if you're of voting age and have access to the debate, why is it necessary to look elsewhere for thoughts and opinions on who won, who lost, what went down, etc?
If you didn't see it and you get opinion, isn't there chance you're affected based on your biases and those of the media outlet?
Not a shot at you for the link, but I can't help but wonder why informed people need to rely on other outlets after watching what went down. Kind of like why I don't read Game recaps or stories after seeing the game. I already saw what happened and have formed an opinion based on what went down.
The same reason I read Dan, Dave, and Jesse's articles on the Buckeye game I just watched. I don't know everything and I don't see everything.
Looking elsewhere for consenting or dissenting opinions is human nature. It makes us more informed.
I fear it makes the 10% of people who take into account ALL the information more informed and the other 90% who already have their minds made up just find justification for whatever viewpoint they already have.
What happened, happened, right? If you read articles about what happened in Buckeye game against Iowa by Dan, Jesse and David and then read the Iowa writers articles and mix in the national experts' opinion then you'll be more informed and more rounded.
If you read only Bucknuts account then you're more likely to get a viewpoint that more closely matches your affiliation. Most people aren't looking for information. They're looking for justification of their already formed thoughts and opinions.
YMMV of course. I fear there are far too few educated people willing to vote for whomever may be best for this particular time and far too many with minds made up and seeking opinions that validate their pre-conceived notions and biases.
by googleeph2 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:49 pm
by Cerebral_DownTime » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:54 pm
googleeph2 wrote:Socialism sounds good on some level. It's been tried.
Where has it worked, again?
by googleeph2 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:13 pm
peeker643 wrote:Question I have is a general one: if people watched the debate and processed what they saw, why do they need to visit various media outlets to read other opinions (which can be affected by bias)?
by peeker643 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:17 pm
googleeph2 wrote:peeker643 wrote:Question I have is a general one: if people watched the debate and processed what they saw, why do they need to visit various media outlets to read other opinions (which can be affected by bias)?
I must say- this describes why I have no interest in watching that NFL Network special on the 1995 Browns.
by Hikohadon » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:12 pm
googleeph2 wrote:Socialism sounds good on some level. It's been tried.
Where has it worked, again?
by HoodooMan » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:27 pm
googleeph2 wrote:Bottom line for me: Libs now are way further to the left than back when I was born. JFK's don't overtax/people need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps when possible/ strong defense as the deterrence for war? I'm on board. But today, libs frame that as extreme right. I wonder when they will stop moving to the left- where are the limits?
by e0y2e3 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:34 pm

by HoodooMan » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:37 pm
by googleeph2 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:53 pm
Cerebral_DownTime wrote:googleeph2 wrote:Socialism sounds good on some level. It's been tried.
Where has it worked, again?
Scandinavia.
by googleeph2 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 2:57 pm
HoodooMan wrote:[i]The top marginal tax rate was 91 percent
by FUDU » Thu Oct 04, 2012 5:27 pm
by Orenthal » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:14 pm
peeker643 wrote:I wish sporting events were like debates. When the Browns got thumped 35-6 we could see it spun over the course of the next days into an actual Cleveland win.
I mean, y'all watched the same exact event/debate/telecast, correct? One wasn't on RepubTV and the other on DemTV and enhanced to change the actual coverage? It was the exact same thing yet there are declarations of a huge win and others "LOL-ing" at the notion.
I didn't watch. Not bothering. Not even sure I'll vote. I can't make up my mind between which man and party are Christ-like and which are the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet.
This is why it's desperately frustrating in this country today. Not only politics but talking about them.
Scream louder!!! Make shit up!!! I'm sure it will change the minds of the folks on the other side of the aisle.
Arthur- "I cut your arm off"
BK- "No you didn't"
Arthur- "Then what's that?" (pointing to severed arm)
BK- "I've had worse"
by Commodore Perry » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:18 pm
peeker643 wrote:Cerebral_DownTime wrote:Excellent post debate opinion piece on the debate.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... _blog.html
Question I have is a general one: if people watched the debate and processed what they saw, why do they need to visit various media outlets to read other opinions (which can be affected by bias)?
Kind of like why I don't read Game recaps or stories after seeing the game. I already saw what happened and have formed an opinion based on what went down.
by Orenthal » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:34 pm
by Orenthal » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:41 pm
by skatingtripods » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:47 pm
by Cerebral_DownTime » Thu Oct 04, 2012 6:56 pm
Commodore Perry wrote:Its just a well reinforced habit.
Most people have been taught since early childhood to distrust their own opinions, desires and decisions and to always verify a thought with others, especially authority figures, and adjust their thinking as necessary.
Its gross. We're trained from the beginning to be modern day peasants.
by Cerebral_DownTime » Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:10 pm
skatingtripods wrote:Paul Ryan will systematically pick Joe Biden apart in their debate.
by Hikohadon » Thu Oct 04, 2012 7:27 pm
skatingtripods wrote:Most of the people watching who felt Romney won so big are already decided voters. People who are liberals who feel Obama lost still aren't voting for Romney.
by Orenthal » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:02 pm
skatingtripods wrote:As a Republican who is not a big Romney supporter and doesn't think he has much of a shot in the general election, I liked a lot of what he said last night and was temporarily re-energized by his performance. He pandered to the base, discussing a lot of states' rights issues, which I'm a big supporter of. He talked at length about shrinking the size of the federal government and looked vastly more prepared than Obama.
That said, Obama took this entire thing for granted. He knows he has a huge lead, and short of being caught raping a staffer or disposing a body, he has this thing sewn up. He'll show up for the next debate far more prepared and confident and unless Romney wins the next couple debates in a landslide, like he did last night's, it won't make a bit of difference. Might have just been a wake-up call for Barry.
Most of the people watching who felt Romney won so big are already decided voters. People who are liberals who feel Obama lost still aren't voting for Romney.
Paul Ryan will systematically pick Joe Biden apart in their debate. Romney might still have better debate showings than Obama. And on November 6, it still won't matter.
by Orenthal » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:05 pm
Cerebral_DownTime wrote:skatingtripods wrote:Paul Ryan will systematically pick Joe Biden apart in their debate.
Not so fast, my friend.
I think Biden learned from his debate with Palin. I expect a much better performance out of him.
Ryan gets flustered in interviews on Fox News, he might melt down in a debate.
This is all based on the assumption (maybe stupidly) that Biden doesn't gaffe like he's known for.
by Commodore Perry » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:42 pm
Cerebral_DownTime wrote:Commodore Perry wrote:Its just a well reinforced habit.
Most people have been taught since early childhood to distrust their own opinions, desires and decisions and to always verify a thought with others, especially authority figures, and adjust their thinking as necessary.
Its gross. We're trained from the beginning to be modern day peasants.
LOL. Sanctimonious bullshit over a link, nice.
Yes. I'm a "peasant" because I posted a link to a damn OPINION piece.
And James Downie is a authority figure to me.
I'm adjustin' my thinkin' because of what he said! I'm ah doin' it. Because WAPO told me too.
I bet you've never ever posted a link here.
by swerb » Thu Oct 04, 2012 9:43 pm
by e0y2e3 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:13 pm
The Predictive Value of Instant-Reaction Polls
In a way, however, it’s good news for Mr. Romney if his team needs to worry about the Electoral College. Why? Because this stuff only matters if the vote is very close; mathematically, it is extremely unlikely for a candidate to lose the Electoral College if he wins the national popular vote by more than about two percentage points.
Ohio is not a great problem for Mr. Romney to have — but it is a better one than being in a losing position all over the map. After the debate on Wednesday night in Denver, the chances are better that Mr. Romney will narrow his deficit in the national polls — and Mr. Obama will need his electoral firewall.
A bit of caution, however, about the predictive power of those polls showing Mr. Romney having clearly won the debate on Wednesday. As I mentioned after the debate, I had not come across a study on the relationship between instant-reaction debate polls and the eventual effect on the horse race polls. So I decided to do a quick one myself.
The chart below reflects the candidates that debate watchers deemed to be the winners or losers in CNN polls in 17 presidential debates between 1984 and 2008. I compare this figure with the change in national head-to-head polls before and after the debate.
(Estimates for the horse race change after the first debate in each cycle, and all debates in 1984, come from my own database; those for the rest of the debates are from Thomas Holbrook).
The estimates are framed from the perspective of the incumbent party candidate, who is designated with the letter ‘I’ and the color purple in the chart; the challenger is designated with ‘C’ and the color orange.
The clearest win for any candidate in the CNN poll came in 1992, when Bill Clinton was deemed the winner of the second presidential debate by 58 percent of respondents, as compared with 16 percent for President George H.W. Bush and 15 percent for H. Ross Perot. That town-hall-style debate, in Richmond, Va., included this famous moment in which Mr. Clinton displayed his capacity to empathize with voters:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=7ffbFvKlWqE
Indeed, Mr. Clinton increased his margin over Mr. Bush by about four percentage points in head-to-head polls immediately after that debate. Although Mr. Clinton lost some of that advantage during the remainder of the campaign, this is still a favorable precedent for Mr. Romney, since his 38-point margin of victory in CNN’s poll on Wednesday night is similar to Mr. Clinton’s 42-point win in that 1992 debate.
In several other cases, however, the instant-reaction polls did not correlate with the change in head-to-head polls. Before Wednesday night, the second-clearest margin of victory for a challenging candidate in the CNN poll came in 2008, when Mr. Obama was declared the winner of the third presidential debate by a 27-point margin. However, his opponent John McCain actually gained slightly in the polls instead just after that debate.
In 2000, CNN instant polls deemed Al Gore the winner of both the first and third presidential debates. But he lost about three points to George W. Bush in head-to-head polls after each of them. In 1996, Mr. Clinton was declared the winner of the first presidential debate in the CNN poll, but Bob Dole gained slightly in the head-to-head polls after that.
Over all, the relationship between the winner of the instant-reaction poll and the change in head-to-head polls is positive, although not statistically significant.
But for what it’s worth, the historical data would project a gain of 2.2 percentage points for Mr. Romney in the head-to-head polls by this time next week.

by swerb » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:30 pm
by e0y2e3 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:31 pm

by motherscratcher » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:35 pm
by e0y2e3 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:36 pm

by motherscratcher » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:40 pm
by swerb » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:51 pm
by FUDU » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:57 pm
by e0y2e3 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:33 pm

by motherscratcher » Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:22 am
by mattvan1 » Fri Oct 05, 2012 9:43 am
Cerebral_DownTime wrote:googleeph2 wrote:Socialism sounds good on some level. It's been tried.
Where has it worked, again?
Scandinavia.
by Hikohadon » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:50 am
swerb wrote:I don't buy that the debate last night isn't going to have impact. It was the biggest TV audience for a debate in 20 years and probably also the most one sided debate in 20 years.
I also don't buy that everyone has made up their mind in this election, and I think last night's massive audience is evidence of that.
We'll know in a couple days. I think the Romney bounce could be bigger than the bounce Obama got after his convention.
by Ziner » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:53 am
by Hikohadon » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:55 am
Ziner wrote:In all seriousness one 6 year term should be implemented.
by Ziner » Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:02 am
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