No Way Obama Loses

[swerb]

Romney needed to win the conventions and win the debates to have a chance. He just lost the conventions.

I am a Republican. I am also a realist. And to me, Michelle Obama, Slick Willie Clinton, and Barack Obama did a lot of damage these last three nights. Sucked up a lot of independent or middle voters. I don't even like Clinton. I was mesmerized watching the guy last night. Guy is a lethal politician.

Romney isn't likable enough, doesn't connect with people enough. Obama slam ads have done a good job chipping away at his trustability factor. He didn't get the bounce he needed out of convention and then got hit with three left hooks these last three nights. Obama will be up 6 points in the polls a week from now.

Romney's only hope as I see it: bad jobs # tomorrow morning, another one in early Oct, and he has to CRUSH the debates, which I just can't see happening. Obama is just too gifted at bull shitting and connecting with Joe American.

Tough to beat an incumbent. Especially one as politically gifted as Obama. Guy has almost admittedly no clue how to get this economy out of one of the worst recessions in history, and he is going to beat a guy who has spent a lifetime successfully fixing things.

[Damage]

Jobs report supposedly going to show a 200K surplus.

[bookelly]

The debates are gonna be an epic smackdown. Mitten's is gonna get smoked.

[jerryroche]

Knee-jerk reactions. Maybe right, maybe wrong. Like saying the Browns are gonna lose by two touchdowns Sunday.

Obama hasn't been up six points since January, when his fellow Repubs were taking Mittens apart. Also, most of the polls use samples based on voter turnout in 2008, which very strongly favor the Dems.

This is and will be a tight race -- too close to call even the night before the election. It may just turn one way or another on Ohio, too.

[swerb]

Another brutal jobs #. 96k new jobs in Aug, down 70k from June, and below the modest expectations.

[leadpipe]

To Swerb's point, there's millions of people who vote based on "Shiny Things"

Kinda like the millions who voted based on all the "change" that was trumpeted last election.

In this regard the Dems hit a HR the last couple nights.

[gotribe31]

I just don't think there are that many undecided voters right now to win over. And the ones that are truly undecided will make their decision more on jobs #'s than convention speeches. They had what, 4 million people watch Bubba's speech at the DNC? Of those 4 mil, how many were even undecided?

Like Swerb said, another brutal jobs report. Barring a Sept/Oct Surprise, I still think it hinges on jobs. And the #'s are not looking good for Obama. Blame Bush can only last so long (right? RIGHT???).

[Cerebral_DownTime]

Still not voting.

Obama doesn't deserve a 2nd term and Mitt Romney needs a good kick in the teeth for being such a douche bag.

[e0y2e3]

I have no idea where in the fuck you are getting your viewership totals Al, but Bill fucking crushed it and you're just 21MM people off.

RT @keachhagey: Bill Clinton beat football in ratings last night, 25.1 million to 23.9 million total viewers, per Nielsen.

[Cerebral_DownTime]

I just don't now what Mittens can out debate Obeezy on.

[Rat_Tail]

I just don't now what Mittens can out debate Obeezy on.

Mormonism

[idoctribefan]

Rich, "don't give up, don't ever give up". -Jimmy V

[hebner20]

This a copy/paste from an email I received and saved from a few months ago. Perhaps some of you have seen it. Whether you think it makes sense or not probably depends on your D or R affiliation. If Obama wins it will be unprecedented. However, we are in unprecedented times.


Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters.Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters.Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters.Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters.Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters.Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners.Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites.Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms.The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans.McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

[Orenthal]

Mitt in a landslide. The economy stupid. Lowest job market participation rate since 1981...

[FUDU]

While I agree Obama is probably going to win, I think it could be much closer than most people really believe it will. The debates will impact that IMO.

Here's the thing, there are more people that voted for Obama in 2008 that will NOT vote for him now (due to his track record and lack of, well results) than there are people that did not vote for him in 2008 that WILL vote for him now.

Plus correct me if I am wrong, b/c I am not remembering this right now, but 2008 did not bring out an unprecedented number of black voters did it? Young black voters were a larger % but that is only in comparison to historical numbers of young white voters IIRC (could be many reasons for that). Point being the black vote is probably a rather insignificant factor right now.

I just wish there was enough reason to think a change would even matter.

[Cerebral_DownTime]

Mitt in a landslide. The economy stupid. Lowest job market participation rate since 1981...

This is not good news for Obama.

[Fire Marshall Bill 2.0]

Unemployment among black males 21-35 is 34%, last I read

[motherscratcher]

Hebner's post about why Romney will win reminds me of all the posts that we make every march about how the Indians ate going to make the playoffs.

[gotribe31]

I have no idea where in the fuck you are getting your viewership totals Al, but Bill fucking crushed it and you're just 21MM people off.

RT @keachhagey: Bill Clinton beat football in ratings last night, 25.1 million to 23.9 million total viewers, per Nielsen.

My bad, misread the total for one network as total viewership. Thanks for being as nice and cheery as usual though. Your fucking tweet is fucking off though, by 5 fucking million.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/0 ... 64145.html

[swerb]

I don't buy the "theres no one left thats made up their mind" argument. I will concede there are LESS people that have decided, based solely on the fact that Obama is running on a far more liberal agenda than four years ago, and Romneys platform is farther right than McCains.

But there's a lot of swing votes out there in battleground states. And a lot of struggling people out there that are unemployed or underemployed that want to vote Obama, that want to believe he can turn this around, but that still need to be convinced of that. Obama's speech last night was completely devoid of any kind of plan to turn the economy around as he is claiming he can do. He barely talked about the economy.

The other potential fly in the ointment for Obama is this Bob Woodward book that's coming out that details an inside view of the nasty debt ceiling fight between President Obama and House Republicans. The book allegedly paints Obama and his administration as arrogant and in way over their heads. Romney already mentioned it in an interview today after excerpts were just released this morning, which was pretty telling.

[motherscratcher]

It doesn't matter to me who wins, as long as the faggots can't get a piece of paper that says they are married. Because that's what's really important.

We should also try to make it a law that people attend church. Really get this whole thing headed in the right direction.

[Orenthal]

Can you even quantify how many young morons voted just, well, because, you know as Joe Biden said...

The new factor is gone, and with t much of the mystique.

[skatingtripods]

The other potential fly in the ointment for Obama is this Bob Woodward book that's coming out that details an inside view of the nasty debt ceiling fight between President Obama and House Republicans. The book allegedly paints Obama and his administration as arrogant and in way over their heads. Romney already mentioned it in an interview today after excerpts were just released this morning, which was pretty telling.

Problem is, hard to imagine a lot of people running to the library or the bookstore to read it. Hell, not even downloading it to their Kindle. The only information people will get from that book is what the media tells them. Fox News will drive home every anti-Obama point. MSNBC will trot somebody out there to dispute everything and CNN will be somewhere closer to the middle, but probably won't present the pertinent facts.

There are too many voters out there who simply don't care, won't research anything, won't do any kind of fact-checking. A lazy electorate is more likely to keep Obama than Romney because all they will do is watch the debates and Romney sure as shit ain't winning those. Not with the way Barry can sweet-talk his way through everything. Romney appears too condescending and pretentious.

It's a popularity contest. Obama's Homecoming King and Romney is Most Likely to Succeed. But, who's the one that everyone remembers?

[jerryroche]

I don't think it's a slam-dunk that Obama wins the debates. He's good, yeah. But Romney emerged from a series of debate challenges -- by everyone from Herman Cain to Alfred E. Neuman -- with the Republican nomination. The guy's battle-tested in debates.

They sure will be fun to watch, though. Hank Aaron versus Babe Ruth home-run derby-type fun.

[e0y2e3]

I'm sorry Al, I'll adhere to your bullshit huffington post link (ROFL, that is the single dumbest point ever re: Honeykljasdlfkjasdf). I'll raise you the WaPo though: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

You do you, I'll keep laughing at this thread. I hate Mitt and Obama, but only a fucking idiot wouldn't realize how this election is ending.

[e0y2e3]

I'm sorry Al, I'll adhere to your bullshit huffington post link (ROFL, that is the single dumbest point ever re: Honeykljasdlfkjasdf). I'll raise you the WaPo though: http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ ... story.html

You do you, I'll keep laughing at this thread. I hate Mitt and Obama, but only a fucking idiot wouldn't realize how this election is ending.

[e0y2e3]

And for the 500th time: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[e0y2e3]

It doesn't matter to me who wins, as long as the faggots can't get a piece of paper that says they are married. Because that's what's really important.

We should also try to make it a law that people attend church. Really get this whole thing headed in the right direction.

^ things I actually heard and accepted (sheepily) 25+x during my quick trip to Ohio.

Well, that and some shit about naturally selection that ignore the fact that every great empire in the history of the world has featured very loud and proud homosexuals.

If Ohio lit on fire tonight I would celebrate.

[FUDU]

But there's a lot of swing votes out there in battleground states. And a lot of struggling people out there that are unemployed or underemployed that want to vote Obama, that want to believe he can turn this around, but that still need to be convinced of that. Obama's speech last night was completely devoid of any kind of plan to turn the economy around as he is claiming he can do. He barely talked about the economy.

So again, tell me how Obama isn't buying this election?

Romney would gain 3 points if he just aired ads that said "8%, I said 8%" people, and did we mention gas costs $3.95 a gallon, all day long."

[FUDU]

But real quick, when was the last time a church in this country forced somebody to give them money?

[Orenthal]

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/us/po ... .html?_r=1

Maybe the September report will turn around. Average job gains for 2012 are less than 2010. So much for slow build.

[Cerebral_DownTime]

It doesn't matter to me who wins, as long as the faggots can't get a piece of paper that says they are married. Because that's what's really important.

We should also try to make it a law that people attend church. Really get this whole thing headed in the right direction.

^ things I actually heard and accepted (sheepily) 25+x during my quick trip to Ohio.

Well, that and some shit about naturally selection that ignore the fact that every great empire in the history of the world has featured very loud and proud homosexuals.

If Ohio lit on fire tonight I would celebrate.

Ohio rules, fucko.

Now suck my Glock.

[dmiles]

#1 I agree with Rich I don't see Romney pulling this out. I don't see him connecting with people. I barely see any signs driving around my neighborhood and I highly doubt I have a bunch of democrats in my hood. No bumper stickers, no momentum here in Fla. and he needs this state. Things can change it's just right now I don't see it.

#2 Why do you guys think Obama is going to be so slick in the debates?

Have you seen that guy away from the teleprompter? His extemporaneous speaking is Bush-esque at times. The Miami Heats? Seriously what supposed hoops fan would ever fuck that up? The Dibble interview where as a White Sox fan he couldn't name his favorite player? Hell I am only focused on the sports gaffes but get him away from the teleprompter and he's pretty rough.

[gotribe31]

I think they should make Obama throw a baseball again. Not because it has anything to do with running the country, but it just looks really funny when he does it.

[swerb]

Gallup & Rasmussen polls: Obama up 5 points in both.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... E5kMY1lSRM

ASS WHOOPIN in the conventions. Democrats by three touchdowns.

[Commodore Perry]

Mitt in a landslide. The economy stupid. Lowest job market participation rate since 1981...

I'll throw this out there... its a bit unconventional, but maybe the awful jobs situation actually helps Obama.

If you don't have a job, or don't make enough money to make ends meet, who are you going to vote for? The Republican,the guy you think might take away benefits? Or the Democrat, the guy you at least perceive is going to "help" by increasing government benefits?

From that awful jobs report...
Labor force participation rate fell to 63.5%. That means 36.5% of working age people aren't even looking for a job. That doesn't count those looking for work but not finding it. A good portion of that 63.5% is unemployed or underemployed.

The adult male labor force participation rate is just 72.7% - an all time low! Nearly 30% of American adult males aren't even looking for work. Many more are unemployed, or underemployed.

Election aside, these are some very dark numbers for the American economy.

[FUDU]

Are you suggesting Obama has bought the election?

[Hikohadon]

Not an Anything. Don't understand people that identify with one party or the other. Too many of my beliefs don't follow party lines.

Have absolutely no faith that either one could do anything to fix the economy, even if they had the right plan. The other side will cancel them.

The only reason I care at all is - as Swerb pointed out in another thread - that the winner can appoint justices. And I sure as hell don't want some conservative Christian whackjob pro-lifer on the Supreme Court.

So as long as the Repubs keep trottin' up dudes that are in the Bible Belt pocket, fuck that.

[e0y2e3]

^ truth

[motherscratcher]

^^Damn Skippy

[Orenthal]

I can play this guy too. Even the Justices' from both sides of the ideological spectrum wanna control choice.

[motherscratcher]

I can play this guy too. Even the Justices' from both sides of the ideological spectrum wanna control choice.

Really? Seems like one side wants to give choice and the other take it away. Maybe I've been misunderstand.

[comish]

The recent attack on public employees by mutiple Repub governors isnt going to help the Repub cause either. Whether you want to believe it or not, many union voters don't just vote blue every chance they get.....they will now. Ohio may stay blue for a decade or so.

[gotribe31]

The recent attack on public employees by mutiple Repub governors isnt going to help the Repub cause either. Whether you want to believe it or not, many union voters don't just vote blue every chance they get.....they will now. Ohio may stay blue for a decade or so.

Shouldn't you be in Chicago parading around with those guys demanding a raise from $70k (plus benefits) a year to $80k a year?

[comish]

No way, man, I already make 95K + benies.....why leave? I'd rather just stay here and stick it to Johnny tax payer

[Hikohadon]

I can play this guy too. Even the Justices' from both sides of the ideological spectrum wanna control choice.

Really? Seems like one side wants to give choice and the other take it away. Maybe I've been misunderstand.

Of course a pro-choice Obama will nominate justices that are pro-life.

It's so sneaky, it's brilliant!

Want a smaller government? Stop trying to make new bible-based laws.

[gotribe31]

No way, man, I already make 95K + benies.....why leave? I'd rather just stay here and stick it to Johnny tax payer

Well played....well played

[FUDU]

Religious blowhards and government overreach are very similar in how they can affect this county and impact our freedoms.

I will say this though, it is a lot easier to avoid the former than the latter.

[Hikohadon]

Religious blowhards and government overreach are very similar in how they can affect this county and impact our freedoms.

I will say this though, it is a lot easier to avoid the former than the latter.

Not if they're the same.

[FUDU]

Religious blowhards and government overreach are very similar in how they can affect this county and impact our freedoms.

I will say this though, it is a lot easier to avoid the former than the latter.

Not if they're the same.

Example?