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2012 CFB Tilts

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2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sun Sep 02, 2012 5:06 am

A day late, but I took BGSU +30 and Bama -12 yesterday.

Tripods are your boys developing a CFB algorithm to go with the MLB one?
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Sep 02, 2012 10:01 pm

Erie Warrior wrote:Tripods are your boys developing a CFB algorithm to go with the MLB one?


I know that they want to work on a hockey one. CFB may come next season, I know they asked around about what stats guys like to look at.

Anyway, I've gone 7-2 so far with GA Tech +7.5 pending tomorrow night.

Winners: BYU -13.5, WMU/Ill u24 1H & u49 game, Wyoming +31.5, Colorado/ColSt u48, and SC/Vandy u45
Losers: Oklahoma -31, EMU/Ball State u59

Had a ton of games I really liked, but didn't play, including Wagner +17 v. FAU, Boise/MSU under, Baylor -7, Nevada +11.5, North Texas +44, Ark State +39.

Could have had a really, really enormous week. Makes it bittersweet to have had a pretty good week so far.
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Mon Sep 03, 2012 7:09 pm

skatingtripods wrote:GA Tech +7.5 pending tomorrow night.


U 48.5
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby leadpipe » Wed Sep 05, 2012 8:04 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
Erie Warrior wrote:Tripods are your boys developing a CFB algorithm to go with the MLB one?


I know that they want to work on a hockey one. CFB may come next season, I know they asked around about what stats guys like to look at.

Anyway, I've gone 7-2 so far with GA Tech +7.5 pending tomorrow night.

Winners: BYU -13.5, WMU/Ill u24 1H & u49 game, Wyoming +31.5, Colorado/ColSt u48, and SC/Vandy u45
Losers: Oklahoma -31, EMU/Ball State u59

Had a ton of games I really liked, but didn't play, including Wagner +17 v. FAU, Boise/MSU under, Baylor -7, Nevada +11.5, North Texas +44, Ark State +39.

Could have had a really, really enormous week. Makes it bittersweet to have had a pretty good week so far.


This is the whole issue with wagering in 2012, that is, you'd better be faster than Clark Kent to get your number before the wise-guys, syndicates and system players get to those numbers first. Not to mention the Casinos getting wise and offering there very early lines with lower limits, so they can make corrections at a lower price.

It's great to hop on an early number, but it's damn near impossible to do anymore - even if you're living in Vegas.
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:57 pm

leadpipe wrote:This is the whole issue with wagering in 2012, that is, you'd better be faster than Clark Kent to get your number before the wise-guys, syndicates and system players get to those numbers first. Not to mention the Casinos getting wise and offering there very early lines with lower limits, so they can make corrections at a lower price.

It's great to hop on an early number, but it's damn near impossible to do anymore - even if you're living in Vegas.


I know it's counter-intuitive to most bettors, but I don't really worry a ton about getting the best number. I just want a good number. Something below a key number or not the absolute worst number. I'm far more interested in having the right side.

I asked GreyMatterStats to do this study and the findings were pretty interesting: http://greymatterstats.wordpress.com/20 ... d-the-nfl/

Basically, if you don't want to go read it (though I recommend it), in the history of lined CFB games prior to this season, a total of 3,576, the opening number, favorite or dog, has covered 95.5% of the time no matter what number you get. So, if a team opened -2 and wound up -7, 95.5% of the time, it hasn't mattered.

Obviously, if you're betting large amounts of money, the 4.5% matters. For my purposes, I just want the right side. I'll let the number take care of itself.
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby leadpipe » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:30 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
leadpipe wrote:This is the whole issue with wagering in 2012, that is, you'd better be faster than Clark Kent to get your number before the wise-guys, syndicates and system players get to those numbers first. Not to mention the Casinos getting wise and offering there very early lines with lower limits, so they can make corrections at a lower price.

It's great to hop on an early number, but it's damn near impossible to do anymore - even if you're living in Vegas.


I know it's counter-intuitive to most bettors, but I don't really worry a ton about getting the best number. I just want a good number. Something below a key number or not the absolute worst number. I'm far more interested in having the right side.

I asked GreyMatterStats to do this study and the findings were pretty interesting: http://greymatterstats.wordpress.com/20 ... d-the-nfl/

Basically, if you don't want to go read it (though I recommend it), in the history of lined CFB games prior to this season, a total of 3,576, the opening number, favorite or dog, has covered 95.5% of the time no matter what number you get. So, if a team opened -2 and wound up -7, 95.5% of the time, it hasn't mattered.

Obviously, if you're betting large amounts of money, the 4.5% matters. For my purposes, I just want the right side. I'll let the number take care of itself.


Actually, this data shows how important it is to get the correct number. We're on talking huge percentages here, but it's all relative to the percentage you need to win. Doesn't matter what you're wagering.

And the only reason I bring it up is in relation to this thread. Obviously for small timers there are bigger problems than the correct number (though it's important for everyone) for example, above 52.4% should make you a winner in this game. But there's thousands betting online that need to hit quite a bit higher than that cause they aren't getting the correct price.

The number of playas taking a pounded number at a poor price is astounding.
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:51 pm

leadpipe wrote:Actually, this data shows how important it is to get the correct number. We're on talking huge percentages here, but it's all relative to the percentage you need to win. Doesn't matter what you're wagering.

And the only reason I bring it up is in relation to this thread. Obviously for small timers there are bigger problems than the correct number (though it's important for everyone) for example, above 52.4% should make you a winner in this game. But there's thousands betting online that need to hit quite a bit higher than that cause they aren't getting the correct price.

The number of playas taking a pounded number at a poor price is astounding.


As of now, what I do works for me. I imagine in the future, as I continue to do this and have more information at my disposal (planning a move to Vegas next summer), I'll probably change my tune. I know the value of getting the opening number. But, because I don't have power ratings, I'm content to let the market settle and play from there.

More often than not, I seek out numbers that haven't moved much anyway. If a major syndicate has drilled a number from 6.5 to 10, I'm not going to make a move on it.
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:02 am

Toledo +3.5
Ohio State -18
Western Kentucky +42.5
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby JCoz » Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:55 pm

I thought I checked this morning and saw OSU -16.5?
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby noles1 » Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:57 pm

That was last week's line.
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby JCoz » Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:57 pm

noles1 wrote:That was last week's line.


::doh::
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Sep 14, 2012 12:49 am

noles1 wrote:That was last week's line.


It's the same line this week.

Opened OSU -17. -16.5 now most places.
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Re: 2012 CFB Tilts

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sun Sep 16, 2012 8:12 am

Thank you Frank Beamer for that shitfest.

And also USC's o-line.

Not a good week.
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