What If...?

[peeker643]

This losing streak had come two weeks earlier, before the trade deadline?

How different is the roster and the activity level at the deadline?

Would it have guaranteed a Choo/Perez deal?

Would there have been a massive sell off of any and all 'assets'?

[Spin]

What if?

[motherscratcher]

This losing streak had come two weeks earlier, before the trade deadline?

How different is the roster and the activity level at the deadline?

Would it have guaranteed a Choo/Perez deal?

Would there have been a massive sell off of any and all 'assets'?

I doubt it. It seems to me that it was pretty apparent that this was something that should be done even before the trade deadline (although it admittedly wasn't as obvious as it is now).

I don't think they would have done it because I've pretty much lost all confidence it this FO doing anything that makes sense to me anymore.

I know I'm the last one in Cleveland to figure this out, but that's it. That's all of us. I'm the last. I feel like an asshole.

[Dellucci TailGator]

I said the Indians would have to lose 10 straight games to not at least look cosmetically in contention before the trading deadline. Of course, they went on that losing streak right after the deadline.

And Motherscratcher, you're not the only one. These past few weeks pretty much sealed off any hope I had of this franchise getting it right under Dolan. I actually thought they could do it the way they were doing it (windows of contention and tanking in between). There's just too much that can go wrong trying to do it on the cheap. I'm suddenly realizing why Billy Beane turns over his roster every year. It's the only way to do it on the cheap.

[LakeErieWarriors]

It's a good question but man, things were looking very grim before the deadline and they did shit. I don't know if there's anyone that can convince me they would've done anything different had they started the losing streak earlier.

Before the deadline they had lost 9 of their last 12.

[Bigfist]

I think the really bad part of this is that the future looks so bleak. Peeker referred to this in an earlier post, but watching very bad baseball for, in his case forty years, and in mine, even longer, really takes its toll. Yes, we had a good run for a number of years in the nineties, but the farm system produced some players then...names we all know.

It looks bleak because the resources are not there to spend, and the farm system looks like garbage. As I have thought more and more about it, there really is one solution...trade everybody who is tradeable this offseason. Yes, Masterson, Jimenez, Choo, Cabrera, and even Kipnis, who I love, but he will never be in Cleveland if and when we ever have a good team again. We have to hope we hit on these trades and the drafts produce some serviceable (not even great) players.

Take a team like Oakland, that has not been a juggernaut, but they find pitchers...right now their rotation has rookies Straily, Milone, and Parker in it, and Griffin (another rookie) had been pitching well, but is presently on the DL. Griffin and Straily were not even high draft choices. How do they find these players, but we can't?

Sorry for the rant, but it surely looks like we are headed into some very bleak days in Cleveland. Anyone who believes Antonetti when he says we can compete next year with this roster is just nuts.

[pup]

Best run organization in Cleveland!

[Adverb Harry]

I think they would have been too terrified to seriously consider trading Choo and/or Perez even if this had happened right before the deadline. That would have been admitting the team needed blowing up and rebuilding, which would have fallen squarely on their (Shapiro and Antonenetti's) shoulders. Instead, they'll keep those guys on the roster and we'll hear the same tired lines this offseason about how we're still a contending team and that we're better with them, blah blah blah.

They're probably just happy this spun out of control right after the deadline. It took away the necessity of making a move they knew needed done.

[Spin]

Best run organization in Cleveland!

That word alone makes this a joke.

[e0y2e3]

Yep, I'd certainly rate the owner that averaged four wins a year and couldn't wait to sell above Dolan.

Not to mention that angry midget that has become one of the two or three biggest laughing stocks in the league.

Indians have drafted well lately and just have to stick with the plan.

PS: It's not like the Indians themselves are this great org either, their pretty much solid stool compared to a couple of other far messier alternatives. I date you to compare the melt down in here to the melt down over the Browns and Cavs in recent years. It's almost chillingly similar.

[skatingtripods]

Take a team like Oakland, that has not been a juggernaut, but they find pitchers...right now their rotation has rookies Straily, Milone, and Parker in it, and Griffin (another rookie) had been pitching well, but is presently on the DL. Griffin and Straily were not even high draft choices. How do they find these players, but we can't?

I haven't looked into it and can't really justify this opinion, but I'd assume it's simply better coaching and instruction at the minor league levels. Or, just flat out getting lucky.

[jerryroche]

Tribe's "assets" at this point — both on the 40-man roster and in the minors — aren't enough to garner anything substantial in return. That is, of course, unless Antonetti thinks he can outwit, outsmart and out-game any of the other MLB GMs (historical evidence to the contrary).

As for off-season free agency: What free agent of any stature in his right mind would consider coming to Cleveland, even if the owners/managers were willing to overpay? Not many. Progressive Field has become a black abyss, a hellhole of no return, for players seeking to make or grow their reputation in the majors.

Bottom line: The skinflints, over the past decade, have run the organization completely into the ground. Outside of a pretty nice home field, there is little left; even many of their most loyal fans are deserting like rats leaving a sinking ship. This franchise couldn't be worse off if Rachel Phelps were the owner, Lou Brown the manager and Ricky Vaughn the No. 1 starter.

[NH Tribe Fan]

I agree, go the Oakland route.

I don't know, but it seems that since 2005, our talent scouts are too busy looking at the Shelly Duncans, Dan Wheelers, of the world rather than scouting out college and HS guys. I mean really, could any of the fodder in AAA been that much worse than Damon, Duncan, and Lopez? Why the hell did they acquire Canzler if they won't call him up?

The scary thing about this season is despite the run differential, on July 1st, either the brass believed we had a shot to contend (with the now released Lopez as #4 hitter, and Lowe in the middle of the rotation) OR the brass was lacking the balls to trade off assets. Either way, the finger points at management and that needs cleaned out. We haven't developed a starting 1Bman, corner OF, or #1-3 SP in over a decade! Jesus, if the last time I did something positive on my job was over 10 years ago (Colon trade) with a dismal record since, I would have been fired 9 years ago. Dolan gives Shapiro a promotion. First time I have ever said this one, but Dolan needs to sell this team.

[Am I Here Again?]

Skimming through "stuff" the other day I ran across this article about Seattle. Now I will be the first to admit I know little of the minors (well, I know they are THERE) and drafts, but thinking that just maybe they end up building a team that even Wedge could win with seems so wrong. The bulk of the article was summed up in the first sentence. If you want to read names, positions and draft years you'll need to go to the article. Otherwise, this was what made me sad: As the 2012 First-Year Player Draft concluded Wednesday, the Mariners added 41 new prospective players to an organization that continues stockpiling some of the best prospects in baseball. *sigh*

[pup]

Just perused the 2012 top 100 prospects list. Only 1 person's list (Jonathon Mayo, MLB.com) and by no means am I thinking this list is 100% accurate for future success.

There is 1 Indian on that list. #25.

So, who exactly thinks they are drafting better lately?

[peeker643]

Just perused the 2012 top 100 prospects list. Only 1 person's list (Jonathon Mayo, MLB.com) and by no means am I thinking this list is 100% accurate for future success.

There is 1 Indian on that list. #25.

So, who exactly thinks they are drafting better lately?

No dog in the fight but you have to count Pomeranz/White/Kipnis/Pestano/etc and guys who are here (or somewhere) in that analysis, right?

[e0y2e3]

Yep and Al has already gone over this with Pup, twice I believe. Just because a bunch of guys arrived and everyone else is either young or traded doesn't mean a team can't draft. It's just ridiculously obtuse to say otherwise.

[Kingpin74]

Yep, I'd certainly rate the owner that averaged four wins a year and couldn't wait to sell above Dolan.

Not to mention that angry midget that has become one of the two or three biggest laughing stocks in the league.

Indians have drafted well lately and just have to stick with the plan.

PS: It's not like the Indians themselves are this great org either, their pretty much solid stool compared to a couple of other far messier alternatives. I date you to compare the melt down in here to the melt down over the Browns and Cavs in recent years. It's almost chillingly similar.

That plan would be all well and good if they didn't take a hatchet to it with the Ubaldo trade (and no money to fill in the rest of the team anytime soon).

[pup]

Just perused the 2012 top 100 prospects list. Only 1 person's list (Jonathon Mayo, MLB.com) and by no means am I thinking this list is 100% accurate for future success.

There is 1 Indian on that list. #25.

So, who exactly thinks they are drafting better lately?

No dog in the fight but you have to count Pomeranz/White/Kipnis/Pestano/etc and guys who are here (or somewhere) in that analysis, right?

Only if you assume you are the only organization promoting young guys to the big league level or trading prospects away.

Everyone loses guys from the list every couple years. Good organizations have replacements for those guys in the pipeline.

[Adverb Harry]

The team is in a real mess right now (of the front office's own doing, of course). If they nut up and do what they have to--unload anyone of value who isn't under team control for at least three more years and bring in prospects--well, they'll piss off the already angry fans who are sick of seeing the best players constantly traded away. It'll be huge PR disaster for a team that can't afford any more. And if they keep these guys in a desperate attempt to prove to themselves that we are somehow "winners," we'll be in the same mess all over again next year because we don't have the trade chips left after the Ubaldo fiasco to bring in anything worthwhile, and no good free agent in their right mind would agree to sign here, as if we could afford their services, anyway (or the front office gets hung up once again about adding that extra year).

We can't win now with the team as it is. There are no prospects anywhere on the horizon that could make a difference. Our best (only) real one is probably at least three years away, which is still one year after we lose the guy he projects to replace. Trading for the future kills the team's already on-life-support fan base. Standing pat and hoping to somehow turn it around next year just dooms us to another sub-.500 hit-less, pitch-less miserable team.

They almost can't afford to go either way. Huge, huge mess. And with the ten years it's taken to get us to this point, I have no faith in these people to suddenly figure it all out.

[rebelwithoutaclue]

Just perused the 2012 top 100 prospects list. Only 1 person's list (Jonathon Mayo, MLB.com) and by no means am I thinking this list is 100% accurate for future success.

There is 1 Indian on that list. #25.

So, who exactly thinks they are drafting better lately?

No dog in the fight but you have to count Pomeranz/White/Kipnis/Pestano/etc and guys who are here (or somewhere) in that analysis, right?

Only if you assume you are the only organization promoting young guys to the big league level or trading prospects away.

Everyone loses guys from the list every couple years. Good organizations have replacements for those guys in the pipeline.

That must be why the 3 teams with the most prospects on Keith Law's pre-season top 100 prospect list were the Pirates, Mariners, and Royals. Shitty teams have lots of top prospects cause they draft in the top 5 every year. The Indians have been just barely above shitty, to the detriment of the farm system. After that, it's the player development department's fault for lack of progress. I'd put more of the blame on the coaches in development, then the scouts who make draft decisions.


EDIT: Cardinals/Padres/Blue Jays/Tampa also have the same amount. Cardinals office is inhuman and who you're talking about RE: "good organizations" but the Padres and Blue Jays traded for most of their's. Tampa's is a combination of trades (including Indians draftee Chris Archer) and being shitty for a decade.

[e0y2e3]

It is, more than anything, that the Indians just started drafting well in 2008/2009 and a lot of those prospects were slungshot throught the system and what is left is very young. This is rocket science, as Al already explained to Pup (who is just being a dick to be a dick) The Indians have more players in the majors from the late aughts than most/almost all clubs. Sucking at the draft for eight years causes problems, but it has improved.

[Adverb Harry]

What if...

Jason Knaap had been healthy? He was just released. Figured this was the place to put it.

I think I remember hearing once that the Phillies knew he was major damaged goods when we made the Lee trade. Thanks a bunch.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

I dont think it would have mattered. I really think they believe they can win next year or at least want to try too. The reality of whether or not they can/could next year woudlnt have hit them at that point prior to the deadline.

[jerryroche]

I really think they believe they can win next year or at least want to try to.

Sure they can win...65 or 70 games.

^^^Delusional

[gotribe31]

I really think they believe they can win next year or at least want to try to.

Sure they can win...65 or 70 games.

^^^Delusional

What do you want to bet, right now, that the Indians win less than 68 games next year? Because I'll take the over on that #.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

I really think they believe they can win next year or at least want to try to.

Sure they can win...65 or 70 games.

^^^Delusional

I said THEY think they can

[Dnthateonthepronk]

I really think they believe they can win next year or at least want to try to.

Sure they can win...65 or 70 games.

^^^Delusional

What do you want to bet, right now, that the Indians win less than 68 games next year? Because I'll take the over on that #.

+ 2



+1

[jerryroche]

I really think they believe they can win next year or at least want to try to.

Sure they can win...65 or 70 games.

^^^Delusional

What do you want to bet, right now, that the Indians win less than 68 games next year? Because I'll take the over on that #.

With this roster, 68-70 is a good 50/50 over/under for next year. But a lot of unpredictable shit can happen in 14 months, as we've seen in the last two weeks with the Browns. I'll make that bet next April if the world doesn't end in December and the FO has an off-season like last off-season—but not today.

[pup]

OIC.

I bet we are better than really bad, in fact, I bet we are average. For eternity! Who wants in on that action?

This is the first time Mark Shapiro could have been considered to slingshot anyone through the system.

All those great prospects we got since 08/09 that were whipped through the system to the ML roster have produced what exactly? Not exactly a glowing endorsement. "Hey, all of our prospects just missed setting the franchise record for straight losses, war Shaponetti"

[e0y2e3]

Geezes fucking christ Pup, drafting well for three plus years (and trading away two of those highly regarded picks) does not a title contender make.

They fucked themselves royally by collecting nothing from the draft for nearly a decade, no one is saying they didn't.

I have no idea why you are stubbornly fighting a point you are wrong on when you have literally a hundred other things you could bash the front office about and not look like an agenda laden fool.

[Prosecutor]

Yeah, the Indians are still paying the price for eight years of abysmal drafting. As I understand it, the people responsible for those drafts have been replaced. Whether this will result in improved drafting remains to be seen, but the early returns look promising.

What killed the Indians to some extent was the failure of LaPorta and Andy Marte to develop into productive major league players at 3rd base and left field. You can see what we have now at those positions. Also the series of injuries to #2 overall pick Adam Miller was huge. There went our Justin Verlander.

They won't blow it up and they don't have the ammunition to put a playoff team on the field next year. What they'll do is try and patch a couple of the biggest holes like they always do, hope the team gets off to a good start for the third year in a row and stays in it long enough to draw some good crowds in July and August so they break even.

Best case scenario:

- Chisenhall stays healthy and emerges as a .280 hitter with 25 HR power, fixing the 3rd base problem.
-Zeke or Fedroff provides decent production in left field, say, .270 with some stolen bases.
-Masterson has another 2011 season with a 3.21 ERA.
-Carrasco pitches like he did in June of last year before the elbow injury.
-They sign another Millwood or Byrd or Pavano on the cheap and he resuscitates his career with a solid season.
-McAlister takes another step forward in his development.
-Cody Allen and Rogers combine with a healthy Raffie and the current backend of Smith, Vinnie, and Rage to give the Indians one of the better bullpens in the league. Or that idiot Hagadone harnasses his talent.
- Brantley, Choo, Kipnis, Droobs and Santana have seasons similar to this year. A little better in Santana's case.
- The Tigers and White Sox get off to slow starts again, allowing the Tribe to stay in first place a month longer than the last two seasons. No playoffs, but a competitive, interesting team right up to when the real football games start.

The chances of all those things happening are, of course, almost zero, but I think that will be the plan.

[rebelwithoutaclue]

As I understand it, the people responsible for those drafts have been replaced.

A Møøse once bit my sister ...

[Adverb Harry]

Uh oh...møøse bites kan be pretty nasty.

[pup]

Geezes fucking christ Pup, drafting well for three plus years (and trading away two of those highly regarded picks) does not a title contender make.

They fucked themselves royally by collecting nothing from the draft for nearly a decade, no one is saying they didn't.

I have no idea why you are stubbornly fighting a point you are wrong on when you have literally a hundred other things you could bash the front office about and not look like an agenda laden fool.

Because all of the other things to bash them about have become too easy and popular. So I need a new challenge to convince the remaining few slurpurs of the Shap Juice.

Plus, I do not think they have drafted any better overall lately. They have just taken some guys more people agreed with at the time, so they get a better grade out of the shoot. It has thus far provided a few guys (2 of which are bullpen power arms, yippee) and nobody on the horizon (2013 arrival) that has anyone excited.

No RH power bats.
No corner IF/OF (Chiz TBD)
A couple of inning eating starters.

The holes at the ML level remain holes throughout the system. That is a problem. A systematic one. And that starts with the idiot up top.

[e0y2e3]

Again, go look at other major league teams drafts from 2008/2009 to now and count the hundreds of top prospects they have already produced... fucking christ you are just being ridiculous.

I'm done with this, as Al broke it down for you perfectly and you're just being a fool for the hell of it.

THE 2010 draft hasn't produced enough!!!!!

Fuck me with a broomstick.

[rigs]

Go get 'em Pup...dead on...

[peeker643]

Go get 'em Pup...dead on...

Uh oh, Pup.

Not a ringing endorsement of objectivity here

[rigs]

I am very objective. Everything I have said in the past five years about the Tribe has been negative. Everything that has happened afterwards has been negative. I have been dead on.

[DrPoove]

Again, go look at other major league teams drafts from 2008/2009 to now and count the hundreds of top prospects they have already produced... fucking christ you are just being ridiculous.

I'm done with this, as Al broke it down for you perfectly and you're just being a fool for the hell of it.

THE 2010 draft hasn't produced enough!!!!!

Fuck me with a broomstick.

The truth is always somewhere in between. While I do agree they have drafted better in the last 2-3 years, as Al summarized, I have to agree with Pup that there are some glaring holes that are of major concern.

The Ubaldo trade, IMHO, created one of those holes. I give them credit for going out and being aggeressive but the move had been a bust, IMHO. It becomes a bigger bust because they didn't do anything to build on that aggresiveness.

You had a chance to follow up the Ubaldo trade with a Willingham or Cuddyer type this off-season and did not. Instead you wasted money on Spilbourghs, Cunningham, Duncan, Damon and Sizemore. Epic fail.

Are the Dolans/Shapiro/Antonetti a bit cheap, yeah. But the bigger problem is that the money they spend is spent poorly. Going back to Dellucci/Michaels and continuing to Sizemore/Damon this year. Flat out bad decision making.

Throw in that they haven't had a power bat or arm develop in a loooong time and you have to question the way the Tribe is run.

Only a e0y2e3 v. Pup feud could bring me back, baby! Wooooo!

[pup]

Again, go look at other major league teams drafts from 2008/2009 to now and count the hundreds of top prospects they have already produced... fucking christ you are just being ridiculous.

I'm done with this, as Al broke it down for you perfectly and you're just being a fool for the hell of it.

THE 2010 draft hasn't produced enough!!!!!

Fuck me with a broomstick.

If they have drafted better, then one of these two should be correct:

1. Highly rated farm system
2. Quality young players on the MLB roster

My point is neither is true. So how have they drafted well? You keep going back to what Al said, and I said "OK" so the conversation ended. Well, what he said is Lindor is universally regarded as a top 5 prospect (I found him around 25) and there are other guys in lower levels that are on the cusp. Well, the list I have looked at is littered with guys drafted since 2008, and we have 1. And we still have a little more than nothing to show for them on the big league roster. So where are all of these great draft picks? Hiding?

All of this is a little over a week after everyone who knows anything about it said we would not be able to make an impact deal at the deadline because we don't have anything prospect wise to offer. I find that hard to believe on a team that has drafted so well for the last 4 years.

[e0y2e3]

No, you are just being a stubborn fuck to be honest.

Again, go start counting major leagues produced from those drafts then also factor in those on prospect lists. Then you can have a point. Until you accept that fact (and the fact that, again, it's way too fucking early to start yelling about guys from 2010 and 2011 not being on lists (although the Indians first round picks have shot through the lists over the last four years) is absurd.

The Indians have some quality young players and traded some others. The core problem is when you are evaluating a roster that had NO quality young players in the minors or majors drafted by the team pre 2008 you have serious issues.

You don't magically build an entire organization through the draft in three/four years in the major leagues. You just fucking don't and that is what you are demanding with your ridiculous analysis.

[Doc]

Bashing the drafting is easy. It's obviously too early to call White and Pomeranz "busts", but they haven't started off real well. It's not like the 2012 Indians would be any better right now with those 2 in the rotation and not Ubaldo and Kluber/McAllister/Seddon/etc.

They have been better at drafting. How couldn't they be? But they did take 2 advanced college pitchers, which is always a safe way to go. Hard not to blow those 2 picks. So...2 advanced college pitchers, Kipnis, and Chisenhall. And then what? How, since 2008 (5 years now), have we been unable to have ANYONE from the minor leagues replace Shelley Duncan/Johnny Damon/Casey Kotchman? We have, maybe, 8 guys at most on the current team that were originally signed/drafted by Cleveland. Pestano/Herrmann/Tomlin were drafted '06. Carmona was long ago as well. Ditto Sipp and Raffy. Kipnis, Chisenhall. Cody Allen. That's it. Real fucking testament to the front office and their drafting...half that list is bad relief pitching. It's not like they traded away much more than White and Pomeranz recently, either. And what's on the horizon that's going to help us in 2013? That's 6 years of nothing. No excuse for having only 2 position players from your *drafted/signed* minor league system graduate in that time span. None. 1 of which is habitually injured and looks like Jesse Pinkman.

[e0y2e3]

Yeah, all those advanced arms they took prior to 2008 that were safe sure did work out.... SMH

[gotribe31]

Again, go look at other major league teams drafts from 2008/2009 to now and count the hundreds of top prospects they have already produced... fucking christ you are just being ridiculous.

I'm done with this, as Al broke it down for you perfectly and you're just being a fool for the hell of it.

THE 2010 draft hasn't produced enough!!!!!

Fuck me with a broomstick.

If they have drafted better, then one of these two should be correct:

1. Highly rated farm system
2. Quality young players on the MLB roster

My point is neither is true. So how have they drafted well? You keep going back to what Al said, and I said "OK" so the conversation ended. Well, what he said is Lindor is universally regarded as a top 5 prospect (I found him around 25) and there are other guys in lower levels that are on the cusp. Well, the list I have looked at is littered with guys drafted since 2008, and we have 1. And we still have a little more than nothing to show for them on the big league roster. So where are all of these great draft picks? Hiding?

All of this is a little over a week after everyone who knows anything about it said we would not be able to make an impact deal at the deadline because we don't have anything prospect wise to offer. I find that hard to believe on a team that has drafted so well for the last 4 years.

For the record, I said Lindor is a top 10 guy. Mayo's list is pretty much universally regarded as a cut below the big three of Goldstein, Law and BA.

I think you're getting a little too focused on the top 100 regardless. It's not the end all be all of what will come out of a system. And inclusion in the top 100 hardly assures future stardom. Just look at the 2009 top 100...Lou Marson, Aaron Cunningham, Jason Donald, Matt LaPorta...these are just some of the names that appeared on these lists at the time.

I'm not going to rehash my whole argument from the other thread, but I think it's safe to say the Indians have hit on at least their first round picks from 2008-2011. I think they have several other players from those drafts who could contribute at the major league level. Teams don't typically get more than a few major leaguers out of a single draft. You say that there aren't a lot of top 100 guys, fine. But Kip, White, Chiz and Pomz were all consensus top 100 guys. They don't just evaporate because they no longer have rookie eligibility. If you look at the top 100, there will be an awful lot of first and second round picks from 2008-2011 on there. Just because the Indians picks aren't on there doesn't mean they don't exist.

[pup]

Apologies Al, as you certainly did say top 10 for Lindor.






I guess we will just have to wait until 2018 to judge these drafts. Because you can never expect anyone to contribute before they are 30.

[e0y2e3]

Having what, six major league caliber players already from 4 drafts, a top ten prospect and a bunch of kids that could make the leap? Yeah, obviously that is just shitty.

I mean WTF do you think the Baseball draft is? Do you remember how long it took teams like Tamp Bay to get themselves into the realm of anything? You're stubbornly treating the MLB like the NFL for no reason whatsoever and it is absurd.

[pup]

Having what, six major league caliber players already from 4 drafts, a top ten prospect and a bunch of kids that could make the leap? Yeah, obviously that is just shitty.

I mean WTF do you think the Baseball draft is? Do you remember how long it took teams like Tamp Bay to get themselves into the realm of anything? You're stubbornly treating the MLB like the NFL for no reason whatsoever and it is absurd.

I am willing to wait.

War 2018.

[e0y2e3]

No, the correct answer is pointing out the things they blew, like trading two cy young winners and almost a decades worth of drafts instead of screaming up and down like an idiot about the one thing they have done decently in the very recent past.

[pod2dawg]

We are what?......the 7th-8th worst team in baseball?

With our recent uptick in drafting we will most likely climb up to 10 or 11nth worst next year.