MLB 2012 Amateur Draft

[peeker643]

Draft starts Monday and the Tribe picks 15th. Been quiet on that front. They go pitching again?

[rebelwithoutaclue]

As long as they go BPA, which they've been doing since Chisenhall was drafted. They've definitely moved away from the "never draft a HS player" i.e. the zero-upside strategy that doomed them to a barren farm system. Scouts can't even agree on who will be the #1 overall pick so it's really a crapshoot as to who will even be left for the Indians' pick.

[skatingtripods]

Get an athletic OF with a lot of raw tools.

Just don't take a soft-tossing lefty.

[gotribe31]

Draft starts Monday and the Tribe picks 15th. Been quiet on that front. They go pitching again?

Whoa, I expected to be the guy to start this thread the day before the draft. Good to see someone else cares, even if it is Peeker.

It's still tough to assign names to teams, even less than a week out from the draft. Will be really, really interesting to see how the new rules as far as bonus $$ effects teams; some might take a guy that they can sign under slot in the 1st round to save money for the later picks. What's almost a lock is that no one will go over the bonus pools as allocated far enough to lose picks next year. What a stupid system.

The 1st overall pick isn't even a lock yet. Talent level for this draft is below average, when last year's was one of the best ever.

That being said, I've seen the Indians tied to a variety of college arms. Hoping they pick for high upside rather than high floor, but we'll see. I'll put my own mock/analysis up next week when I think I have an idea of who they might take. Drafting for need doesn't happen in the MLB draft, so here's hoping for BPA, not BPA who will sign for slot.

[bookelly]

The draft rules are gonna really flip this thing upside-down. If I were a team...I'd sandbag the early rounds (save for a few choice standouts) and save my money for the later rounds. Grab high value guys 10-25 and see who sticks. We've had lots of guys come up who were drafted in those rounds. Sipp comes to mind, Hermann too.

But you still need to add a high value pick with your 1-10. Just be very selective as to who you target, and save the money to bring in a bunch of guys in the later rounds.

/note - I did this from memory of the new rules...if I am incorrect about the numbers, the sentiment remains: save your money for quantity.

Edit: just read the Indians.com breakdown. Rule applies to the 1st 10 picks. Tribe ranks 22nd in MLB in the amount of money we get to spend. Because you all know it's so much easier for us than other teams...so we should clearly be punished for having so much. FUCK BUD SELIG!!!111ty!!!

[gotribe31]

The draft rules are gonna really flip this thing upside-down. If I were a team...I'd sandbag the early rounds (save for a few choice standouts) and save my money for the later rounds. Grab high value guys 10-25 and see who sticks. We've had lots of guys come up who were drafted in those rounds. Sipp comes to mind, Hermann too.

But you still need to add a high value pick with your 1-10. Just be very selective as to who you target, and save the money to bring in a bunch of guys in the later rounds.

/note - I did this from memory of the new rules...if I am incorrect about the numbers, the sentiment remains: save your money for quantity.

Edit: just read the Indians.com breakdown. Rule applies to the 1st 10 picks. Tribe ranks 22nd in MLB in the amount of money we get to spend. Because you all know it's so much easier for us than other teams...so we should clearly be punished for having so much. FUCK BUD SELIG!!!111ty!!!

The rules apply to every pick. Every bonus over $100,000 in the later rounds applies to the cap.

[rebelwithoutaclue]

/note - I did this from memory of the new rules...if I am incorrect about the numbers, the sentiment remains: save your money for quantity.

Sorry, but this is the exact reasoning that re-paid the Indians with one of the worst farm systems in the league in the early 2000's. I don't care what the rules are, pay for the best talents.

[gotribe31]

The issue though is that if they go far enough over the cap, they not only have to pay the tax, but they lose draft picks next year. So you can't just say "draft BPA and sign him whatever it takes." Losing picks is not an option. I agree that you don't take quantity over quality, but if a guy simply won't sign for close to slot, you can't break the bank for him.

It's going to be interesting to see how teams play this. I hate these new rules.

[pup]

Nothing better than breaking a broken system even further.

The one potential advantage some teams have gets limited. Hope the small markets get to make a couple extra bucks for giving more of an advantage to the big boys!!!

[Adverb Harry]

The issue though is that if they go far enough over the cap, they not only have to pay the tax, but they lose draft picks next year. So you can't just say "draft BPA and sign him whatever it takes." Losing picks is not an option. I agree that you don't take quantity over quality, but if a guy simply won't sign for close to slot, you can't break the bank for him.

It's going to be interesting to see how teams play this. I hate these new rules.

Agreed. At the risk of turning this thread into a bitch-fest, it hurts the small market teams by taking away their one semi-affordable chance to get top talent by putting them on equal footing with the big boys, who are still free to blow whatever they want in free agency. Commissioner Bud really f'ed this one up. Why the amateur draft was such a sore spot to him--especially considering his small-market roots--is a mystery to me.

All that said, I love draft day. Always exciting to get a top prospect into the system, and our success rates been pretty good the past few seasons. Our trades, on the other hand...

[peeker643]

Nothing better than breaking a broken system even further.

The one potential advantage some teams have gets limited. Hope the small markets get to make a couple extra bucks for giving more of an advantage to the big boys!!!

Exactly- I'm not an expert on the new rules but smaller market teams going a couple million over slot to potentially add impact player is relatively more appetizing for them than trying to play for Prince Fielder in the offseason.

And it's not even an unfair advantage they took away from the small market teams but rather one that seemingly let's them survive and allot a portion of their budget to talent acquisition.

[British_Pharaoh]

First 2 picks have to be pitching

[Jumbo]

http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120531&content_id=32561850&vkey=news_cle&c_id=cle:

"As soon as you start to draft towards needs," said Brad Grant, the Indians' director of amateur scouting, "I think that's when you can make mistakes. I think it's important to take the best player available. You take the player that you feel has the most ability rather than concentrating on needs."

It seems like Byron Buxton is the consensus(?) #1 pick, but after that it's a mess. The Indians have four straight years of hits in the first round (Chiz, White, Pomz, Lindor), so here's hoping that BPA works again. Baseball America has 6 of the top 10 as RHP, 5 out of college, so perhaps if another team isn't going BPA (for whatever reason) then maybe one of those guys falls.

[Jumbo]

The issue though is that if they go far enough over the cap, they not only have to pay the tax, but they lose draft picks next year. So you can't just say "draft BPA and sign him whatever it takes." Losing picks is not an option. I agree that you don't take quantity over quality, but if a guy simply won't sign for close to slot, you can't break the bank for him.

It's going to be interesting to see how teams play this. I hate these new rules.

I think it could go a number of different ways depending on different FA psychology. On the one hand, teams might shy away from large bonus demands because it could screw up your whole draft. On the other hand, it might give a team drafting somebody (HS or college) a reason to hold the line on what they are offering him, because they know that next year, when they get a compensatory pick for failure to sign (that's still in, right?), then that gives them both an extra pick and extra money to play with the following year.

It will also be interesting to see how this plays out during trading season in anticipation of next year, because of the change with traded future FAs no longer providing draft pick compensation.

[gotribe31]

Under absolutely no circumstances are they going to draft for need. If the BPA is a SS when they're on the clock, they're going to take the SS.

There's still no lock at 1-1. I've heard Appel, Buxton, Giolito and even Carlos Correa is making noise as the possible top pick. Makes 1-15 a really tough pick to project. Some names to keep your eye on who could be in the mix at 15:
Courtney Hawkins, OF
Richie Shaffer, 3B
David Dahl, OF
Michael Wacha, RHP
Ty Hensley, RHP
Matt Smoral, LHP (Solon HS)

[rebelwithoutaclue]

Our trades, on the other hand...

Which trade are you referencing? Casey Blake for Carlos Santana? Or not-being-re-signed Victor Martinez for Masterson/Hagedone?


The Indians have made good trades. The Indians have made bad trades. Just like every other F'ing team in the league.


LET. IT. GO.

[skatingtripods]

Makes 1-15 a really tough pick to project. Some names to keep your eye on who could be in the mix at 15:
Courtney Hawkins, OF
Richie Shaffer, 3B
David Dahl, OF
Michael Wacha, RHP
Ty Hensley, RHP
Matt Smoral, LHP (Solon HS)

Just did a quick look at Courtney Hawkins. Sign me up. Athletic black kid with a big frame, RH stick with good arm and power. Already 6'2" 210.

Give me the "You don't draft for need" all you want, but these are the types of players you can't find/afford in free agency. Athletic corner OF with power. He may never make it, and he's a long way away, but we haven't had an OF prospect with upside like that in a long time.

[gotribe31]

Makes 1-15 a really tough pick to project. Some names to keep your eye on who could be in the mix at 15:
Courtney Hawkins, OF
Richie Shaffer, 3B
David Dahl, OF
Michael Wacha, RHP
Ty Hensley, RHP
Matt Smoral, LHP (Solon HS)

Just did a quick look at Courtney Hawkins. Sign me up. Athletic black kid with a big frame, RH stick with good arm and power. Already 6'2" 210.

Give me the "You don't draft for need" all you want, but these are the types of players you can't find/afford in free agency. Athletic corner OF with power. He may never make it, and he's a long way away, but we haven't had an OF prospect with upside like that in a long time.

Racist.

Hawkins will likely be gone by 15, but he's a possibility. Honestly, his scouting reports remind me of a bigger Alex Escobar. I'd be happy if we got him, but he's far from a sure thing.

[Jumbo]

Bleacher Report has a nice summary of the top 20. Based on those descriptions, I really like David Dahl as a pick in the 11-20 range. The pitchers in that tier all seem to have significant questions related to health, mechanics, or projectability.

[Adverb Harry]

Our trades, on the other hand...

Which trade are you referencing? Casey Blake for Carlos Santana? Or not-being-re-signed Victor Martinez for Masterson/Hagedone?


The Indians have made good trades. The Indians have made bad trades. Just like every other F'ing team in the league.


LET. IT. GO.

Oh, I know. I wasn't even complaining. That was more of a throwaway line about the likes of LaPorta, Brantley, and pretty much everyone we got for Lee. Seems like the Indians get screwed in the high-profile trades, but they make up for it nicely in the lesser ones. I was just meaning that they seem to get the draft right these days, but it'd be even better if their talent evaluators' decisions extended to the big trades, too. Not bitching, just wishing.

[gotribe31]

Bleacher Report has a nice summary of the top 20. Based on those descriptions, I really like David Dahl as a pick in the 11-20 range. The pitchers in that tier all seem to have significant questions related to health, mechanics, or projectability.

Doubt he's on the board at 15.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

They definitely need to take BPA but I always prefer taking a blue chip pitcher over a blue chip hitter. Just no soft tossing lefties.

I would like to see them draft the highest upside pitcher at 15 as long as said pitcher isn't a reach over the best available position player.


I have read articles that possibly see Giolito because of his injury, I dont see it but you never know. I am intrigued by Smoral( not because he pitches in Ohio) he is a big 6"8 lefty that throws 94-95 depending on reports.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

Also referencing the new rules, Im not surprised. The people in charge of MLB and their "competitive balance" rules are jokes. MLB is by far the most horribly run sport in professional sports. I expect the NHL and MLS to have problems because they have a low quality product that nobody cares about in relation to the NFL and NBA. MLB actually has a product that could rival those 2 but they constantly keep making fuck up after fuck up. If these people were in charge of any other organization they would have been fired years ago.

[gotribe31]

They definitely need to take BPA but I always prefer taking a blue chip pitcher over a blue chip hitter. Just no soft tossing lefties.

I would like to see them draft the highest upside pitcher at 15 as long as said pitcher isn't a reach over the best available position player.


I have read articles that possibly see Giolito because of his injury, I dont see it but you never know. I am intrigued by Smoral( not because he pitches in Ohio) he is a big 6"8 lefty that throws 94-95 depending on reports.

The issue with Giolito is that if he slides out of the top 5, rather than sign for $2 million later on he can just go to school and likely be 1-1 in 3 years and sign for $7 mil. Unless he assures a team in the teens/20's that he'll sign, I could see him falling out of the 1st round altogether. You just can't afford to take a chance on a guy like that wanting too much $$ this year.

[rebelwithoutaclue]

If these people were in charge of any other organization they would have been fired years ago.

MLB Revenues
1995: $1.4 billion

2010: $7 billion


Baseball, as a business, is making money hand over fist. Bud Selig is more likely to receive a platinum statue from the owners than a pink slip.

[Jumbo]

Some names to keep your eye on who could be in the mix at 15:
Courtney Hawkins, OF
Richie Shaffer, 3B
David Dahl, OF
Michael Wacha, RHP
Ty Hensley, RHP
Matt Smoral, LHP (Solon HS)

Hawkins will likely be gone by 15

Doubt [Dahl]'s on the board at 15.

So...of the guys to keep our eye on who could be in the mix at 15...will any of them actually be there at 15?

[e0y2e3]

Baseball has, intelligently, made itself a regionalized sport. They lost the casual national sports fan to the NFL and NBA, but with the growth of the local TV channels they have literally built up a cash empire that cannot crumble, even with their national TV viewership falling apart at the seems. What Selig has done isn't just intelligent, it is flawless execution of an evolution of a sport where the problematic national audience could have crippled it.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

The issue with Giolito is that if he slides out of the top 5, rather than sign for $2 million later on he can just go to school and likely be 1-1 in 3 years and sign for $7 mil. Unless he assures a team in the teens/20's that he'll sign, I could see him falling out of the 1st round altogether. You just can't afford to take a chance on a guy like that wanting too much $$ this year.

When I said I/they would take him, I was assuming they did their research on his signability which will be a problem, I am assuming.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

If these people were in charge of any other organization they would have been fired years ago.

MLB Revenues
1995: $1.4 billion

2010: $7 billion


Baseball, as a business, is making money hand over fist. Bud Selig is more likely to receive a platinum statue from the owners than a pink slip.

They could/should be making way more than 7 Billion. I also don't subscribe to the just because a business is making money its successful. Money is just one part, there other major parts in running a business/organization properly which includes rules and regulations that make sense, treatment of your consumers, usage of funds, initiative to take on problems and find long term solutions.

The owners are just as much to blame, rather than take initiative they just sit there and collect cash. Any informed non-corrupt board of Directors which is what the owners are would never allow their organization to be run that way.

[Jumbo]

Sickels summary of the top 100:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/6/1/3057719/top-100-baseball-draft-prospects-for-2012-scouting-reports

[bucknutz94]

Baseball has, intelligently, made itself a regionalized sport. They lost the casual national sports fan to the NFL and NBA, but with the growth of the local TV channels they have literally built up a cash empire that cannot crumble, even with their national TV viewership falling apart at the seems. What Selig has done isn't just intelligent, it is flawless execution of an evolution of a sport where the problematic national audience could have crippled it.

Never heard or thought of this, but damn I think you're spot on. Thanks for the lucid explanation of baseball's recent financial success (now I'll steal it and pass it along as my own).

[Jumbo]

The team-owned regional sports networks are the biggest factor, but don't discount the money coming in from MLB Advanced Media. According to this article, it was up to almost $500M in revenue by 2010. Much of that is obviously used for operations, but each team gets a few million in dividends every year.

http://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/Journal/Issues/2011/03/21/Media/MLBAM.aspx

[gotribe31]

Some names to keep your eye on who could be in the mix at 15:
Courtney Hawkins, OF
Richie Shaffer, 3B
David Dahl, OF
Michael Wacha, RHP
Ty Hensley, RHP
Matt Smoral, LHP (Solon HS)

Hawkins will likely be gone by 15

Doubt [Dahl]'s on the board at 15.

So...of the guys to keep our eye on who could be in the mix at 15...will any of them actually be there at 15?

Haha, I sure hope so. I did say that while Hawkins will likely be gone, he's a possibility. Things are just so fluid this year, nothing is set in stone and it seems like teams are changing their mind with the wind. I know Adam wants a toolsy OF, so I'm trying to make sure he doesn't get his hopes up only to get them crushed.

I'm writing up 14 players as potential picks, and both Hawkins and Dahl are on the list. The crazy thing is that the pick might end up not even being one of the 14. No one really knows what's going to happen with these new rules. Have I mentioned I hate the new rules?

[gotribe31]

One interesting piece that came out this weekend (sorta draft related); former St. Ed's pitcher Stetson Allie, drafted by the Pirates in the 2nd round in 2010, has been converted back to 3B from the mound. His career numbers on the mound: 0-3 with a 7.76 ERA, 29 K and 37(!) BB in 26 2/3 innings pitched.

[peeker643]

Awesome...

CJ Nitkowski ‏@CJNitkowski
18th anniversary of me being taken 9th overall in the MLB draft. I often reminisce about how many people were fired over that decision.

[Adverb Harry]

One interesting piece that came out this weekend (sorta draft related); former St. Ed's pitcher Stetson Allie, drafted by the Pirates in the 2nd round in 2010, has been converted back to 3B from the mound. His career numbers on the mound: 0-3 with a 7.76 ERA, 29 K and 37(!) BB in 26 2/3 innings pitched.

Yow. I know a lot of people--myself included--were disappointed that he was taken before we had the chance to nab him. I guess that worked out okay for us in the end.

[gotribe31]

One interesting piece that came out this weekend (sorta draft related); former St. Ed's pitcher Stetson Allie, drafted by the Pirates in the 2nd round in 2010, has been converted back to 3B from the mound. His career numbers on the mound: 0-3 with a 7.76 ERA, 29 K and 37(!) BB in 26 2/3 innings pitched.

Yow. I know a lot of people--myself included--were disappointed that he was taken before we had the chance to nab him. I guess that worked out okay for us in the end.

Yup, I was hoping they'd take a shot on him that year too and it never came to that. Still, not a bad gamble by the Pirates, it just didn't pay off.

[gotribe31]

So the final mock drafts are out. Here's who the "experts" have the Indians taking:
ESPN's Keith Law: Chris Stratton, RHP-Mississippi St.
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/20 ... mock-draft
Baseball Prospectus Kevin Goldstein: Stratton
https://baseballprospectus.com/article. ... leid=17238
MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo: Stratton
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd ... b&c_id=mlb
CNNSI's Dave Perkin: Courtney Hawkins, High School OF (note: I will dance naked down Pennsylvania Ave if this happens)
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/b ... raft.2012/




Me (putting myself well removed from the real experts): Stratton (I swear I had this locked in way before I saw any of the other mocks)
http://www.theclevelandfan.com/clevelan ... mock-draft

So the smart money is on Stratton. Which means that there's no chance that it's Stratton.

[skatingtripods]

So the smart money is on Stratton. Which means that there's no chance that it's Stratton.

Good write-up, Al.

I'd rather take Shaffer if he's still there. Start drafting some GD bats instead of all of these arms. We can find bargain bin pitchers that can be valuable. We can't find bargain bin, productive corner bats.

Niece's boyfriend, Zak Shockley, will hopefully get taken some time in the latter half of the draft. Committed to Marshall. 6'5" LHP comfortably sitting 83-85 right now, though he admits that he hasn't thrown a pitch at 100% in HS. Usually about 85-90%. Just graduated from St. Ignatius. No real chance that he signs, but it'd be a cool thing for him to get picked.

[gotribe31]

So the smart money is on Stratton. Which means that there's no chance that it's Stratton.

Good write-up, Al.

I'd rather take Shaffer if he's still there. Start drafting some GD bats instead of all of these arms. We can find bargain bin pitchers that can be valuable. We can't find bargain bin, productive corner bats.

Niece's boyfriend, Zak Shockley, will hopefully get taken some time in the latter half of the draft. Committed to Marshall. 6'5" LHP comfortably sitting 83-85 right now, though he admits that he hasn't thrown a pitch at 100% in HS. Usually about 85-90%. Just graduated from St. Ignatius. No real chance that he signs, but it'd be a cool thing for him to get picked.

I'd much rather have Shaffer too, but because I think he's a better prospect. I don't care what position they draft, I just want a guy who can make a difference.

If they've extensively scouted Wacha and think he can spin a breaking ball, then I'd rather have him than either of the other guys. Will be really interesting to see who's on the board come #15.

[Jumbo]

The draft coverage is kind of fun, even if you don't know if any of these guys will actually make it as a professional. (Of course, I have the same POV on the NFL draft.) The comparisons to current MLB players is especially amusing.

Appel fell to #8 based on signability...which, apparently, means the Pirates will just punt this pick to get a comp pick for next year, I guess. (If that's still how it works with the new rules.)

Dahl (my pick above) just got taken at #10.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

its interesting, would be much more exciting if you could trade picks among other things. I mean god forbid you attempt to make an exciting product to try and sell your sport.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

[motherscratcher]

:lmfao:

Why are you laughing?

[motherscratcher]

Tyler Naquin Outfield Texas AM

Know anything about this kid Al?

[Dnthateonthepronk]

Its just funny. Not a single person or site had Naquin associated with the Indians. Every professional "expert" was so adamant about a college pitcher. Thats why drafts are great because stuff just flies out of nowhere.

[dazindiansfanuk]

Seems like there's a general feeling of "Whaaaat?" around the national media when the Indians pick was announced.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

Dont really have a negative or positive thought on the pick, if that is who they thought was the best player then they should take him, However I would have went with Giolito.....who now goes to Washington.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

Seems like there's a general feeling of "Whaaaat?" around the national media when the Indians pick was announced.

You could hear the awkward silences

[skatingtripods]

Dont really have a negative or positive thought on the pick, if that is who they thought was the best player then they should take him, However I would have went with Giolito.....who now goes to Washington.

Might as well go ahead and give him Tommy John surgery now so they can get it out of the way.