The Hardball Times/Driveline Baseball

[peeker643]

Adam's buddy is apparently getting ready to publish the Ubaldo 2010 vs. Ublado 2012 comparison at some point today.

If you guys are into mechanics you're going to be stunned.

Give the sites some love when you can and if we see it published we'll link it.

Just from a layman perspective you'll see hands breaking sooner, shoulder angle effed up, body rotation different, he's dragging his arm through the delivery, and he's knee bend is far more pronounced now. That's what I saw initially. The hands breaking so much earlier is pronounced.

In short, what a mess.

ETA:

In fact, here it is and there's analysis as well.


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... ical-look/

[motherscratcher]

I haven't been to Hardball Times in a while. Used to read regular when Calcaterra posted there.

Looking forward to thing...or maybe not. Sounds like something that isn't going to make me very happy.

[peeker643]

I haven't been to Hardball Times in a while. Used to read regular when Calcaterra posted there.

Looking forward to thing...or maybe not. Sounds like something that isn't going to make me very happy.

He's a mess. I know how you put the toothpaste back in the tube with the guy, but I hoep they're trying and I hope they can.

Look at the video. It's like oneof those kids games/brain teasers where pictures look the same and you have to find things that are different.

Some notes initially as I talked to Adam about this stuff:

Breaks his hands A LOT earlier now. Front side start is more open now (you can see laces on right shoe in '10, they face dugout now), Not as much bend in '10. Look at shoulder angle. Front shoulder much higher now. Rt arm drags behind hips in '12. More in sync in '10...Looks like waaay out of rhythm now. Fighting this delivery and timing off. This isn' an injury. Maybe change because he feared one... But this is a guy who all effed up mechanically compared to 2010.

[motherscratcher]

What would worry me the most is that the Indians clearly are aware of this as well. At least I have trouble envisioning a scenario where they weren't aware of the change in mechanics. If they were going to fix it...if they were able to fix it, wouldn't it be fixed?

And if it's unfixable, what made them think otherwise when they made the trade? Why did they think they could fix it? Even if you think you can fix it, that's a hell of a gamble with the prospects they gave up.

OR, maybe they didn't do their due diligence and were unaware of the mechanical flaws at the time of the trade. That might be the most concerning scenario of all.

Lotta strands. Lotta strands in ole moscratch's head.

[rebelwithoutaclue]

Well, he's bad right now but mechanics are, usually, fixable. Don't know if Ubaldo's delivery will ever be fixable but it's better news than if he had an MRI and found out a torn labrum was causing decreased velocity. I read the worthless Plain Dealer recently and the coaches said they had spotted some mechanical flaws and were working to correct them, which probably means they started working on them last year and the PD is now just getting around to reporting on it.

[peeker643]

What I'd like to see is pre-trade, 2011 Ubaldo.

Then you'd know if Tribe was aware of what they were getting or if they were the cause of the changes.

And I don't know Reb.... from a fixable standpoint surgery is more certain. More time consuming and risky for sure, but more certain too in this day and age.

They have to fix leg bend, shoulder drive and arm drag. I don't know if 2010 delivery scared people but it definitely gemerates mre power.

You can get to somewhere between 91mph and 98mph safely if he can find the slot.

[jerryroche]

I'm not so good at analyzing all the minutia of a pitcher's motion, but when I saw him for the first time this season, my eyeballs almost popped out. "This guy's all over the place!" I told my friend. Velocity down, walks up.

Anybody who's watched baseball for a few years can tell his delivery is completely screwed up, even without videotape evidence. You'd think the Tribe would have someone in the system who can analyze the delivery, spot the flaws, and correct them. Or is that too much to expect from a major-league team?

[peeker643]

I'm not so good at analyzing all the minutia of a pitcher's motion, but when I saw him for the first time this season, my eyeballs almost popped out. "This guy's all over the place!" I told my friend. Velocity down, walks up.

Anybody who's watched baseball for a few years can tell his delivery is completely screwed up, even without videotape evidence. You'd think the Tribe would have someone in the system who can analyze the delivery, spot the flaws, and correct them. Or is that too much to expect from a major-league team?

Maybe they caused or encouraged them?

It's not as simple as just finding them and having him stop doing it. You have to see if there's a physiological reason he's changed, if there's a psychological reason he's changed (or is reluctant to go back) and then you have to re-create that delivery that made him successful despite new muscle memory locking him into this one.

Sure, you could tell he was all over the place beore, but now you can see where and why and maybe start to understand why he's at 91 as opposed to 97.

I'm praying they can get him back where he was because he's waaaaaay out of whack from the second he starts his motion. It's an immediate issue and it gets worse from there.

[pup]

Couple of things:

1. The author says there is no change in the front shoulder. I disagree. It now looks like his front shoulder goes up as a result of the way he is throwing his lead elbow up more pronounced. It looks to me like he is really trying to force MPH with that move.

2. A big area of concern for me that I don't think the author captured is it looks to me like he is now "cupping" the baseball at the bottom of his extension. The 2010 looks like he shows the ball to the 2B, while now he is showing the back of his hand. That is causing undue tourque of the wrong kind and he is loosing fluidity in his motion. The author commented how the 2012 motion looks less athletic and natural and that is a big part of that problem.

Now, onto fixing mechanics. If it was simple/easy/possible to alter a MLers mechanics, they would all throw very close to straight over the top from a near perfect T from the breaking point and long fluid follow throughs. It doesn't happen.

The only questions for Ubaldo are who and why. Like I said in another thread, if someone was convinced he would blow his arm out with the 2010 mechanics (which I would not agree with, but some would) then yes you try to alter them. Other than that, they just took a dump on the Mona Lisa.

ADD: It also looks like he has less turn, leaving his front knee in front of the rubber in 2012 as opposed to bringing it over the rubber in 2010.

It is about the worst mechanical change I have ever seen. He is taking longer to do things on the top half (breaking earlier and extending more and cupping) while speeding up the bottom (slightly smaller leg kick, less turn). One of the reasons for the cup action is to decelerate the arm because his hands have broken so much earlier.

Is it DMiles that used to show video of the swing on here? Would love to get his take on those videos.

[Dellucci TailGator]

Unfortunately the Indians aren't in a position like Toronto was with Halladay to send him to single-A, strip him down to nothing and build him back up. They have too much invested, Ubaldo's too advanced in age and I doubt he'd be willing to do that with free agency coming up.

[dmiles]

Couple of things:


Is it DMiles that used to show video of the swing on here? Would love to get his take on those videos.

I plan to get in deep hopefully over the weekend. Love this stuff, I made some clips of Pujols last week and noted his mechanics have changed, but I haven't had time to look at this. Wife been in hospital all week with Staph (started chemo after the mastectomy, and that damn Staph got involved.).

We are on the way out of the hospital in an hour or so. I've personally not spent the same amount of time on pitching as the swing. Mainly because although my kids pitch for their HS, I don't think fine tuning the mechanics are worth the effort right now. Pitching is a little more complicated at least for me. The Driveline guy I have interacted with he is a tribe fan up in Seattle, I am not sure we are on the same page hitting wise but who knows people's opinions seem to change over time.

[peeker643]

Couple of things:


Is it DMiles that used to show video of the swing on here? Would love to get his take on those videos.

I plan to get in deep hopefully over the weekend. Love this stuff, I made some clips of Pujols last week and noted his mechanics have changed, but I haven't had time to look at this. Wife been in hospital all week with Staph (started chemo after the mastectomy, and that damn Staph got involved.).

We are on the way out of the hospital in an hour or so. I've personally not spent the same amount of time on pitching as the swing. Mainly because although my kids pitch for their HS, I don't think fine tuning the mechanics are worth the effort right now. Pitching is a little more complicated at least for me. The Driveline guy I have interacted with he is a tribe fan up in Seattle, I am not sure we are on the same page hitting wise but who knows people's opinions seem to change over time.

Really sorry to hear that dmiles. Hope your wife is on the road to to recovery and much better health.

[leadpipe]

Interesting stuff. I'd be interested in knowing if the mechanics left before the velocity dropped. Or the velocity dropped with the mechanics. Reason being a HUGE cause for pitching mechanics going haywire is losing a few MPH's, that being followed by not missing as many bats as you are used to. The laymen's term "overthrowing" is very real in regard to mechanics.

I would point you to a guy like Heath Bell. He has lost his velocity of two years ago. And along with it he's walking three times as many per 9 as he did with his velocity. Now, I haven't seen Heath Bell side by sides from 2011 to 2012. But if anyone wants to bet me that they look the same from a mechanics standpoint, go ahead and pm me the wager.

Bottom line, the guy is a unholy mess at 90 mph. He would have been an unholy mess at 90 5 years ago. He's never been an excellwent pitcher mechanically or otherwise. Maybe a little more solid, a little more consistent, but the guy's career was built on 95 with movement - an all the goodies that come from that.

Period.

And by the way, it's very clear to him what is going on. You don't throw FOUR pitches in a single at bat under 85 to Mitch fucking Meier of the Royals if you have the least bit of confidence in your gas. Especially a guy who has made the show based ion his fastball.

[googleeph2]

Same here, dmiles.

Peeker, how are you feeling these days?

[peeker643]

Same here, dmiles.

Peeker, how are you feeling these days?

No complaints, sir. Haven't had any head issues in just over a year. Other than it being somewhat empty.

Appreciate you asking.

[peeker643]

Since the day he got here you've never seen a single sign that Jason Kipnis is overwhelmed or intimidated by the game or his surroundings.

Contrast that with Cord Phelps who looked like a deer in the headlights (and that's not saying Phelps won't be back, just that he was not ready then).

If Kipnis loosens up a bit around the bag (he's very stiff and mechanical) he's going to have some battles with Cano and the AL's elite second basemen for All Star game appearances.

[Erie Warrior]

1. The author says there is no change in the front shoulder. I disagree. It now looks like his front shoulder goes up as a result of the way he is throwing his lead elbow up more pronounced.

2. A big area of concern for me that I don't think the author captured is it looks to me like he is now "cupping" the baseball at the bottom of his extension.

His entire top half is different in the 2 videos. Pup, you've hit the nail on the nose. I bet the cupping is causing tension in his forearm and he's losing spin. He's over compensating by trying to gain speed by tilting his shoulders (reaching back).

Put him in the stretch, have him keep his hands at his chest, bring the ball down and around in line with his back leg (not straight back behind him) and have him generate rotation by clearing his gloveside elbow hard to the 1st baseline. That shoulder tilt is terrible.

[pup]

Couple of things:


Is it DMiles that used to show video of the swing on here? Would love to get his take on those videos.

I plan to get in deep hopefully over the weekend. Love this stuff, I made some clips of Pujols last week and noted his mechanics have changed, but I haven't had time to look at this. Wife been in hospital all week with Staph (started chemo after the mastectomy, and that damn Staph got involved.).

We are on the way out of the hospital in an hour or so. I've personally not spent the same amount of time on pitching as the swing. Mainly because although my kids pitch for their HS, I don't think fine tuning the mechanics are worth the effort right now. Pitching is a little more complicated at least for me. The Driveline guy I have interacted with he is a tribe fan up in Seattle, I am not sure we are on the same page hitting wise but who knows people's opinions seem to change over time.

D - Hopefully all is well. Or at least on the path to wellness.

The point about not fine tuning pitching mechanics not worth the time, I assume is because you see them as hitters going forward. Otherwise, there is no better time than when present time allows. Every pitch thrown without fine tuned mechanics makes it harder and more likely to lead to injury down the road.

Much like hitting, there are a ton of things that can be done throughout the mechanics of throwing a pitch. ALso like hitting, there are only a couple of real keys that must be adhered to and I simply try to put as little motion as possible in getting from step 1...delivery. Movement is noise and noise is negative.

[dmiles]

Still haven't given up time for this.

For me the reason not to focus on it, is that my kid just has absolutely no finesse whatsoever for pitching. He has very effective outings but very short arm action, short stride, and just looks uncomfortable. I don't even think his knee gets gets higher than his waist. And my point is if I have to start with breaking down every single thing it gets to be where you are trying to change a kid who runs a 12.5 100M dash to a 10.2. Sure you can tinker with sprint mechanics but unless some drastic changes occur he won't jump to that speed. Down here in Cent. Fla there are kids all over hitting 88-92 (more in a few cases) and his top speed this year might have been 77. He is 17, and it just seems like if he had a natural feel for pitching he'd look smoother by now. So that's why I don't bother with it too much. Now my 15 year old just hit 6'2" and can actually play 14U all summer as he has the late birthday, he looks a little more natural and smooth (he'll hit 6'4" at least), so we might work on that stuff. Problem with him is he doesn't have any interest in listening to me, and it really showed in the batter's box this year as my older one who takes my shit as gospel flourished while the younger one had kind of a meh season.

Anyway that's why I don't spend too much time with it. My feeling is a 6'2" (barefoot) 205 lb. kid only mustering up low-mid 70's when he's just a few months from 18 is probably not worth spending a great deal of time on because around here they just move onto the next guy. Now we need to figure something out because unless he gets the infield arm over 80 MPH he is really impacting his college choices (if any). However if you can hit as a 1B sometimes they don't care about the arm so we shall see.

[pup]

Still haven't given up time for this.

For me the reason not to focus on it, is that my kid just has absolutely no finesse whatsoever for pitching. He has very effective outings but very short arm action, short stride, and just looks uncomfortable. I don't even think his knee gets gets higher than his waist. And my point is if I have to start with breaking down every single thing it gets to be where you are trying to change a kid who runs a 12.5 100M dash to a 10.2. Sure you can tinker with sprint mechanics but unless some drastic changes occur he won't jump to that speed. Down here in Cent. Fla there are kids all over hitting 88-92 (more in a few cases) and his top speed this year might have been 77. He is 17, and it just seems like if he had a natural feel for pitching he'd look smoother by now. So that's why I don't bother with it too much. Now my 15 year old just hit 6'2" and can actually play 14U all summer as he has the late birthday, he looks a little more natural and smooth (he'll hit 6'4" at least), so we might work on that stuff. Problem with him is he doesn't have any interest in listening to me, and it really showed in the batter's box this year as my older one who takes my shit as gospel flourished while the younger one had kind of a meh season.

Anyway that's why I don't spend too much time with it. My feeling is a 6'2" (barefoot) 205 lb. kid only mustering up low-mid 70's when he's just a few months from 18 is probably not worth spending a great deal of time on because around here they just move onto the next guy. Now we need to figure something out because unless he gets the infield arm over 80 MPH he is really impacting his college choices (if any). However if you can hit as a 1B sometimes they don't care about the arm so we shall see.

No need for an explanation. Appreciate it, but hopefully you did not provide one because you took my post as a negative reaction.

[Prosecutor]

Ubaldo just went 7 innings allowing only 2 hits against the best hitting team in the AL. He was consistently hitting 93-94 and touched 95 a couple of times. As the author said, velocity tends to increase during the season.

The thing I like about Ubaldo is that hitters have a hard time squaring up his fastball even when he grooves it and they're sitting on it. There were several times in his last couple of starts where he fell behind 3-1 and everybody knew the heater was coming and they still couldn't hit it hard, even right down the middle at 92 mph. He must have great movement on that pitch.

Yesterday he got the breaking ball working to complement that 94 mph fastball with movement and pretty much had the Rangers under complete control.

What I'm saying is let's not get too obsessed with radar gun. Remember, CC is a better pitcher throwing 92 than he was when he came up and was hitting 96-97.

[skatingtripods]

Boddy just posted an update to THT's blog based on Ubaldo's start yesterday.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_ ... cs-review/

[peeker643]

Pros says he's fixed. Who needs video and worrying about hands breaking too soon. As I told Al yesterday, U Aldo is the 5th best pitcher on this team today. And the fact people are happy he pitched well yesterday says all you need to know. He's a mess. He walked three guys in one inning and two outings a go he literally bounced 20+ of his 113 pitches. Believing all is well or he's on his way is somewhat ignorant. It's going to take a dozen outings better than yesterday from a mechanical/command standpoint to convince me he's better. Yesterday was a good step. But he's had these days before.

[Prosecutor]

I didn't say he was fixed. I said he was hitting 94-95 mph. One of the by-products of being messed up mechanically is lower velocity, which was what we have been seeing up until yesterday.

It was reported that Rad spotted a change in his delivery since 2010 and was working with him to correct it. Suddenly his velocity jumps from 90-91 to 94-95 and he shuts down the league's best offense for seven innings. I don't know, maybe just a coincidence?

"It's going to take a dozen outings better than yesterday from a mechanical/command standpoint to convince me he's better."

So if he goes 7 innings giving up zero earned runs and two hits for his next ten starts you still won't be convinced he's better? Wow, that's a pretty high standard.

I guess I'm saying I don't care much about his mechanics, command, or velocity if he puts seven straight zeroes on the board.

[peeker643]

I didn't say he was fixed. I said he was hitting 94-95 mph. One of the by-products of being messed up mechanically is lower velocity, which was what we have been seeing up until yesterday.

It was reported that Rad spotted a change in his delivery since 2010 and was working with him to correct it. Suddenly his velocity jumps from 90-91 to 94-95 and he shuts down the league's best offense for seven innings. I don't know, maybe just a coincidence?

"It's going to take a dozen outings better than yesterday from a mechanical/command standpoint to convince me he's better."

So if he goes 7 innings giving up zero earned runs and two hits for his next ten starts you still won't be convinced he's better? Wow, that's a pretty high standard.

I guess I'm saying I don't care much about his mechanics, command, or velocity if he puts seven straight zeroes on the board.

I do. It's not sustainable.

Billy Traber 2-hit the Yankees once on his way to sustained success.

Ubaldo averaged 92.7mph on his fastball yesterday.

You see what ya want. I see the Indians 5th best pitcher right now, as it stands, and a guy who still isn't close to what he was. That's WHY you look at the mechanics.

[pup]

I didn't say he was fixed. I said he was hitting 94-95 mph. One of the by-products of being messed up mechanically is lower velocity, which was what we have been seeing up until yesterday.

It was reported that Rad spotted a change in his delivery since 2010 and was working with him to correct it. Suddenly his velocity jumps from 90-91 to 94-95 and he shuts down the league's best offense for seven innings. I don't know, maybe just a coincidence?

"It's going to take a dozen outings better than yesterday from a mechanical/command standpoint to convince me he's better."

So if he goes 7 innings giving up zero earned runs and two hits for his next ten starts you still won't be convinced he's better? Wow, that's a pretty high standard.

I guess I'm saying I don't care much about his mechanics, command, or velocity if he puts seven straight zeroes on the board.

Just so you know, you can still throw 95 with jacked up mechanics. Usually you end up throwing pitches all over the stadium because you are overthrowing, but that is just semantics.

[dmiles]

No need for an explanation. Appreciate it, but hopefully you did not provide one because you took my post as a negative reaction.

Not at all, I think you see where I was going, most kids by that age start to show signs of comfort and since he doesn't we focus on the hitting. I did do a side by side for him a while back with Brian Wilson to get him to make sure he doesn't "sit on the quad" and move out. It's something we worked hard to eliminate in hitting, and it's much easier to see in pitchers. Wilson's back leg and most hard throwers the back leg doesn't "sit" it "get's sat" and that is a huge distinction. Same goes for hitting.

[peeker643]

No need for an explanation. Appreciate it, but hopefully you did not provide one because you took my post as a negative reaction.

Not at all, I think you see where I was going, most kids by that age start to show signs of comfort and since he doesn't we focus on the hitting. I did do a side by side for him a while back with Brian Wilson to get him to make sure he doesn't "sit on the quad" and move out. It's something we worked hard to eliminate in hitting, and it's much easier to see in pitchers. Wilson's back leg and most hard throwers the back leg doesn't "sit" it "get's sat" and that is a huge distinction. Same goes for hitting.

When you see it and look at it look at the hand separation and the front shoulder tilt.

As I mentioned to Pup when I saw it, it stands out. And it's alarming.

[dmiles]

OK on the first article.

I agree with some of the basic things he's talking about. With a but of course but. The guy is still a mess as Peeker pointed out, I'll have to look at the update but for now, I would agree that the way he's taking the ball out of the glove is not good. The cupping of the ball behind is a bit strange to say the least.

However I disagree that taking the ball out of the glove with better rhythm is going to make a big difference. While Kyle touched on it in the article the primary issue is his shoulders tilt early. Maybe you could say his shoulders are just going to tilt a certain number of frames after he takes the ball out of the glove no matter what and they now tilt early because of that. I suppose maybe it'd be worth trying but I see the excessive early shoulder tilt as the primary issue as to what's causing the problem.

First off rotational momentum isn't something I want in my hitter or pitcher as far as what they need to think about. Separation occurs in the rear hip socket, not hips-shoulders. The back leg of course must start it's "rotation" if we want to call it that, while the back hip is still loaded as in coiled around. In the case of Ubaldo, it's very clear to me that his front shoulder is rotating much sooner in the Indians clip (meaning turning left). If you stare at the front shoulder in the Rockies clip it stays closed off for a couple more frames. This is evidence that Jiminez is now getting a very poor stretch. The reason is that he is excessively tilting early, and that pressure down through the leg is preventing the explosiveness that should be happening. Tilting shoulder's as a viaual is fine, I don't care and am I am not bothered by it. However the shoulders once again should "get tilted" you shouldn't feel a need to force the movement.

You can have some early tilt action if your back leg is also driving forward. As the back leg drives forward, the head will appear to lower (center of gravity lowered) and right as that occurs the rear leg begins to turn towards home.

Watch Feller-Lincecum-Koufax here in this clip. To keep this in layman's terms, you might say that the degree the rear leg turns forward (meaning visually above the knee to upper thigh) WHILE the shoulders are closed and bypassed dictates how hard you will throw all things being equal (meaning I don't think these three were giant men they had to squeeze everything out of the body they could). When I say STRETCH that's what I am talking about, because this is clearly hard stuff to learn if you don't do it naturally. The difference with these guys who tilt early with some twist back is they are driving forward with the back leg.




Getting back to Ubaldo stare at the front shoulder. He's not getting

[Prosecutor]

I guess I'm saying I don't care much about his mechanics, command, or velocity if he puts seven straight zeroes on the board.

I do. It's not sustainable.

We'll see about that.

Billy Traber 2-hit the Yankees once on his way to sustained success.

Ha - I remember watching that game. I thought we had discovered our own Jamie Moyer. So I get your point.

However, that was Traber's first dominating game, IIRC. He was a rookie, so one game could be a fluke, and it was. Ubaldo has started an All-Star game. He's done it before. I don't think the Traber example is valid for that reason.

Ubaldo averaged 92.7mph on his fastball yesterday.

And the Rangers couldn't hit that 92.7 mph fastball, so what do we care if he's not hitting 97? Again, CC Sabathia.

You see what ya want. I see the Indians 5th best pitcher right now, as it stands, and a guy who still isn't close to what he was. That's WHY you look at the mechanics.

If he's not close to what he was I can't wait to see how good he'll be when he gets there.

Marla Ridenour in the ABJ says he's been working on getting his mechanics back to the 2010 version for two weeks. Acta says he's getting there:

“We have seen progress, it’s just that it doesn’t show in the numbers and that’s what we’re looking for,” Acta said. “I know he wants to perform well and we all want to see him do well and see some of the progress translate on the field. Today we saw that."

If Jimenez is our 5th best starter we'll do OK this year.

[leadpipe]

I guess I'm saying I don't care much about his mechanics, command, or velocity if he puts seven straight zeroes on the board.

I do. It's not sustainable.

We'll see about that.

Billy Traber 2-hit the Yankees once on his way to sustained success.

Ha - I remember watching that game. I thought we had discovered our own Jamie Moyer. So I get your point.

However, that was Traber's first dominating game, IIRC. He was a rookie, so one game could be a fluke, and it was. Ubaldo has started an All-Star game. He's done it before. I don't think the Traber example is valid for that reason.

Ubaldo averaged 92.7mph on his fastball yesterday.

And the Rangers couldn't hit that 92.7 mph fastball, so what do we care if he's not hitting 97? Again, CC Sabathia.

You see what ya want. I see the Indians 5th best pitcher right now, as it stands, and a guy who still isn't close to what he was. That's WHY you look at the mechanics.

If he's not close to what he was I can't wait to see how good he'll be when he gets there.

Marla Ridenour in the ABJ says he's been working on getting his mechanics back to the 2010 version for two weeks. Acta says he's getting there:

“We have seen progress, it’s just that it doesn’t show in the numbers and that’s what we’re looking for,” Acta said. “I know he wants to perform well and we all want to see him do well and see some of the progress translate on the field. Today we saw that."

If Jimenez is our 5th best starter we'll do OK this year.

Pros, shake yourself.

Know what your problem is? You pay attention to more about what you wish for, than what is.

Yea, the Rangers couldn't hit him at 92. Guess what? Everyone else in the league has this season. And you know when most teams in the league couldn't? When he was at 97. This isn't conjecture, it really happened.

You say if Jiminez is are 5th best starter we'll do ok this year? THAT's conjecture. And if he stinks, and the team does ok, the team doing ok will have nothing to do with Ubaldo Jiminez.

The guy has sprinkled in a couple good starts among many bad ones. You know who does this? Bad pitchers.

Get this through your skull, a power pitcher with little command (insert and name) that loses 4 or 5 mph is going to be poor. Maybe not ALL the time, but MOST of the time. You can pick Frank Tanana and hope, I'll pick the thousands of other guys who stunk, and we'll see whose correct.

No matter the reason, Ubaldo is living around 90. And if he's livin' around 90, his ERA will live around 5.

That seems to be ok with you - great. Just understand if it continues you've got a guy that's going to be hurting the team, not helping it. And, as I've mentioned here hundreds of times, need proof - you got about a hundred years of seasons as reference.

[Prosecutor]

Pros, shake yourself.

Know what your problem is? You pay attention to more about what you wish for, than what is.

Well, let's stick to what is, then. It was reported they had Ubaldo watch film of himself in 2010. They said he saw some differences; so did we. For two weeks he's been working on fixing his mechanics. Acta says he's been making progress but it hasn't shown up in the numbers yet. Then he goes out and shuts out the league's best offense on two hits in seven innings. On top of that the radar gun had his fastball hitting 94 and 95 mph with an average of nearly 93, when as you said, it was consistently at 90 in April.

None of that is made up stuff I'm wishing for; it's all fact.

Yeah, it's only one start. So your usual "glass half empty" viewpoint may be correct. My belief that his mechanics have improved and we'll see a better pitcher the rest of the season is indeed "conjecture". But it's conjecture based on known facts. Acta said his mechanics have improved. The fastball is better. He was getting his slider and curve over consistently. The results were there.

But then again, Kotchman got glasses and hit .300 the following season. Now look at him. So your chronic pessimism may prove to be right in the end.

[peeker643]

I fear we're a post away from extrapolating Ubaldo's numbers from Sunday over 30 starts and awarding him the AL Cy Young.

We're closer to it, regardless of whether it's a post away.

[leadpipe]

Pros, shake yourself.

Know what your problem is? You pay attention to more about what you wish for, than what is.

Well, let's stick to what is, then. It was reported they had Ubaldo watch film of himself in 2010. They said he saw some differences; so did we. For two weeks he's been working on fixing his mechanics. Acta says he's been making progress but it hasn't shown up in the numbers yet. Then he goes out and shuts out the league's best offense on two hits in seven innings. On top of that the radar gun had his fastball hitting 94 and 95 mph with an average of nearly 93, when as you said, it was consistently at 90 in April.

None of that is made up stuff I'm wishing for; it's all fact.

Yeah, it's only one start. So your usual "glass half empty" viewpoint may be correct. My belief that his mechanics have improved and we'll see a better pitcher the rest of the season is indeed "conjecture". But it's conjecture based on known facts. Acta said his mechanics have improved. The fastball is better. He was getting his slider and curve over consistently. The results were there.

But then again, Kotchman got glasses and hit .300 the following season. Now look at him. So your chronic pessimism may prove to be right in the end.

If you don't want "Glass half empty" or "chronic pessimism," bring up some different subjects other than "players who blow, but I think they'll magically become good."

Christ, you extrapolate Shelly Ducan's numbers to some sort of all-star level, and 'm being chronically pessimistic just by watching the games and understanding how things work.

Telling you Shelly Duncan stunk wasn't glass half empty - it was correct.

And telling you power pitchers, with little command that lose mphs are going to suffer isn't glass half empty either. It's how things work - if you bother to pay half attention.

As was the Cavs starting line-up and all the Browns success you forecasted and on and on.

If anyones judging things from a biased viewpoint it's you.



Christ, you go on with your glass full in a town full of lottery basketball teams, top five drafting football teams and a baseball team that has left itself little room for improvement in the near future.

Keep whistlin' Dixie there Pros, championships are right around the corner.

Me, well, I'll be watchin' the games.

[Erie Warrior]

I only saw a few clips of his last outing, but did anyone notice a lower arm slot?

Seemed like he was coming out more 3/4, but I didn't get to see enough to make definitive statement.

[skatingtripods]

He dropped down sidearm a couple times with two strikes.

Not sure on the arm slot all game.

[Erie Warrior]

He dropped down sidearm a couple times with two strikes.

Not sure on the arm slot all game.

Just wondering, that would seem to be an adjustment, not a correction.

[Prosecutor]

If you don't want "Glass half empty" or "chronic pessimism," bring up some different subjects other than "players who blow, but I think they'll magically become good."

Maybe you were speed reading and missed something. I didn't say anything about magic. I talked about scientific film study with the pitching coach and making adjustments based on the conclusions drawn, and subsequent positive results both in velocity and effectiveness. Nothing magic about it. Happens all the time. Just like Hannahan going to a heavier bat last year and not trying to hit HRs all the time just because he's a third basemen.

And telling you power pitchers, with little command that lose mphs are going to suffer isn't glass half empty either. It's how things work - if you bother to pay half attention.

Yes, and Ubaldo has "suffered". I'm just saying that Rad helped Joe Smith fix his mechanics last year with great results and now he's working with Ubaldo. So far the results have been encouraging. It will take a few more starts to see if it sticks.

Christ, you go on with your glass full in a town full of lottery basketball teams, top five drafting football teams and a baseball team that has left itself little room for improvement in the near future.

Keep whistlin' Dixie there Pros, championships are right around the corner.

Not around the corner, but I expect the Tribe to win more than 80 games (especially in this division), and the Browns and Cavs will both be significantly improved next year.

Me, well, I'll be watchin' the games.

[gotribe31]

This is subscriber only, but I think it's a much better, more in-depth description of what's going on with Ubaldo. His front shoulder absolutely is opening, his delivery is inconsistent, and the real issue is the lack of torque which = lack of velo.

https://baseballprospectus.com/article. ... leid=16891

[gotribe31]

From the B-pro article:

Mechanical Disparity No. 3: Torque
Jimenez had extreme torque during his heyday, combining heavy hip rotation with a huge shoulder load to crank out 100-mph heaters. His hip-shoulder separation has shrunk along with his velocity over the past two seasons, and a four-seam fastball that used to bottom out at 95 mph rarely hits that mark at ceiling in 2012.


The above pictures display his shoulder load just prior to foot strike, as Jimenez prepares to initiate trunk rotation. The difference is subtle and made all the more difficult to detect given the discrepancy in viewing angles between the two television feeds, but Ubaldo has some additional upper-body load on the pitch from 2010 (left), and he delays trunk rotation by a split-second when compared to the pitch from Sunday's game (right). The pitch from 2012 looks as though he has just triggered the firing of the shoulders, with the front shoulder beginning to open.


Jimenez reaches maximum torque after foot strike in these screenshots, though an early trigger somewhat limits the separation on the right-side pitch from 2012. The left-side torque created a 99-mph fastball, and the shade of extra shoulder-load helped to keep the front shoulder closed into foot strike. The right-side pitch was Ubaldo's best fastball of Sunday, approaching 95 mph and finding its destination without consulting a navigation system. It achieved torque that came close to peak, but even the best pitches from Sunday were no match for his eighth-inning fastballs of October 2010.

Notice the progression, how the extra upper-body twist on the top left keeps the shoulder closed into foot strike, such that we can still see a hint of the mitt near his mid-section, allowing Jimenez to maximize his hip-shoulder separation prior to firing the shoulders (bottom left). Contrast that sequence with Ubaldo on the right, where the front shoulder begins to open prior to foot strike (top right), and the right-hander is already executing trunk rotation by the time the landing foot has touched down, with no leather in sight.

The phrase “shoulder flying open” is often used to describe this phenomenon, where early trunk rotation will result in a lead-shoulder that begins to open up to the glove side, indicating a timing error within the kinetic sequence. The disparate viewing angles suggest that it should be easier to see the glove in the screenshot on the lower-right, all else being equal. However, the front side has already opened up too far for the mitt to remain in view. The open shoulder has plagued Jimenez throughout his career, and the issue is compounded by his current lack of torque at foot strike.

[dmiles]

One thing I am not an expert on are all the various muscles/tendons/bones/ and what is connected to what. I am a software dweeb. However I can recognize the sequence pretty well. I also know there are some experts out there with PhD's in the stuff who might be able to analyze some things but can't teach it. So my point being their advanced knowledge of the moving parts is fine, but they clearly go off the beaten path somewhere and make up things that aren't happening.

A lot of this rotational stuff is fine in the classroom but has probably been a big set back pitching/hitting instruction. Think about it are a figure skater can rotate in circles like a mutha, but you do not need that movement in swinging a bat or hitting a baseball. Otherwise all things being equal the person who can spin their hips and body the fastest wins. Professor Adair compared hitting to a rock on a rope and had many studies to back it up, so folks started teaching this way which.

None of what I said probably has anything to do with Jiminez, I highly doubt someone is out there telling him not to rotate. Or to resist rotation. I prefer to think of the system as parts being stretched and released. I maintain the excessive over-tilting is causing the front shoulder to open early. It's very simple to feel this if you like to experiment.

To what degree can you pull your back hip AROUND the ball of the femur when in an athletic position? Now tilt like crazy before you even stride out and pull the hip around. You can't tell me it's as tight. I should feel my hip, my butt cheek, my low back pulling AROUND to resist rotation. If I do that from that tilted position I feel slop in the system.

[Erie Warrior]

Otherwise all things being equal the person who can spin their hips and body the fastest wins.

Which is rotational. Both hitting and pitching are rotation around a fixed point. Not 360 degree rotation, but rotation nonetheless.

The key is timing the height of rotational momentum at contact/release. A split second before or after and you lose lots of energy, which is what the BP article is pointing out.

[peeker643]

Awesome.

So we're all in agreement on the issues.

We can write that on his career headstone soon because it ain't getting better.

If he was a horse they'd shoot him.

[pup]

Again.

Anyone who thinks Ubaldo's mechanics can be corrected in a couple weeks has never thrown a pitch in their life.

[dmiles]

Otherwise all things being equal the person who can spin their hips and body the fastest wins.

Which is rotational. Both hitting and pitching are rotation around a fixed point. Not 360 degree rotation, but rotation nonetheless.

The key is timing the height of rotational momentum at contact/release. A split second before or after and you lose lots of energy, which is what the BP article is pointing out.

Yes to some extent this is true, but those who decide to teach this way are doomed to a premature ceiling. So my issue with the article was simply that "he doesn't get enough torque" might be interesting fodder for us, but doesn't really address the upstream issues. Ubaldo's issue starts before the shoulder flies open, namely he makes very poor use of his low back stretch. Better to think of the spine as an engine rather than axis point. (See Dr. Gracovetsky's stuff) As an aside getting off the rotational thinking, helped raise my kid's avg. to .440 this season from barely over .200 as a 10th grader. Most extra-base hits were to oppo field now that outside corner is back in play. Also he made the summer showcase team whereas he was cut last year and I guarantee mechanics improvement was a huge part of this.. So naturally I get a little defensive as to how and what is going on, and I am sure you are aware but it's much more complicated than rotation.

All that blather to say I agree with Peeker and Lead however that slop in Ubaldo is going to be very difficult to fix. So yep he's a mess and a 5 starter at this point.

[skatingtripods]

This just came across my Twitter feed from @brooksbaseball, the online home of Pitch F/X data. This is Ubaldo's first inning release point yesterday.

[dmiles]

I have never looked at one of these how typical is it to have that much variation for a starting pitcher?

[skatingtripods]

I have never looked at one of these how typical is it to have that much variation for a starting pitcher?

Here's Justin Masterson's for his entire start on 4/27 v. Anaheim:

[Erie Warrior]

That is a ridiculous graph. Is it accurate?

If it is, it clearly shows the front side opening up too fast. His arm hasn't caught up and his release point is up and away. Masterson is taller, with an incredibly jerky delivery, and he appears to be much more consistent.

[Erie Warrior]

Most extra-base hits were to oppo field now that outside corner is back in play.

Which could be a function of hand position and approach. Or where the right fielder (if he's a righty) is playing.

Gotta get the foot down and hips through regardless.