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Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:13 am

Have to imagine CP's not available tomorrow. Probably the reason that Acta went to him today for the 1 out save. Once he starts throwing, he's unavailable tomorrow.

Figure Pestano's probably your closer tomorrow. Would be great to get 7+ out of Masterson.
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby Am I Here Again? » Sun Apr 22, 2012 2:05 am

dazindiansfanuk wrote:Further proof that the save stat is completely meaningless!

As is the concept of The Closer. I could go on but I would be nowhere near as good at mini-ranting as this article (no doubt referred to by many far more into baseball stats than I) by Jim Caple from 3 1/2 years ago. IMO it's a classic.

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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby pup » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:25 am

Anyone who thinks a closer is not important has never stood on a mound in the last inning of a game your team has battled all day to win.

It is different. It is different than coming out of the bullpen in any other inning. That is why it isn't always the best pitcher that makes the best closer.

Nothing I can do to convince anyone this is true, but to have the opportunity to do it.

Tribe is a perfect example. Vinnie Pestano > Chris Perez. In every situation imaginable. Except getting the last out of a tight game. As of now. If I remember correctly, he has said this on more than one occasion (Vinnie that is).
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby 7foot3 » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:52 am

pup wrote:Anyone who thinks a closer is not important has never stood on a mound in the last inning of a game your team has battled all day to win.

It is different. It is different than coming out of the bullpen in any other inning. That is why it isn't always the best pitcher that makes the best closer.

Nothing I can do to convince anyone this is true, but to have the opportunity to do it.

Tribe is a perfect example. Vinnie Pestano > Chris Perez. In every situation imaginable. Except getting the last out of a tight game. As of now. If I remember correctly, he has said this on more than one occasion (Vinnie that is).



Baseball players have always believed in a lot of dumb, incorrect things. That doesn't mean they are all of a sudden correct. Fine, its different, but how much different? What has to happen for a guy who strikes out 12.3 per 9 with a 1.07 WHIP in a ton of high leverage situations for you to know that he can't get guys out in the 9th?
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby motherscratcher » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:56 am

The save is absolutely a meaningless stat.

But Pup is completely right. And he's right because it is human beings on the mound, not robots. I have no problem with Perez as the closer because Perez THINKS he's a close and doesn't give a fuck what any of the rest of us think. And I think that's important.

There's a reason that managers and teams do it this way, with a ninth inning closer. And that reason isn't because nobody ever told them that saves is a dumb stat and "high leverage situations blah blah blah". Of course they know that stuff.

Besides, as far as the tribe is concerned, Perez has been pretty damn good since opening day.

I would like to see what would happen if a manager did commit to using the bullpen exactly as the stats het tells him he should, with his best pitchers in the highest leverage situations every time, with no regard to labels such as "closer". I'd be interested to see how that would work.

I'd prefer if a team other than mine tried it.
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby dazindiansfanuk » Sun Apr 22, 2012 10:17 am

I won't argue that defined bullpen roles are very important..... like has been said, these are human beings and relief pitchers in general seem to thrive when knowing what their role is.

My only point was that the "save" stat itself was meaningless..... Throwing 1 strike in a 4 run game without ever having to even face the tying run shouldn't count as a save.... the idea that closers have a couple of zeroes added to their salaries based on this flawed stat is my main beef.
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:20 am

dazindiansfanuk wrote:My only point was that the "save" stat itself was meaningless..... Throwing 1 strike in a 4 run game without ever having to even face the tying run shouldn't count as a save.... the idea that closers have a couple of zeroes added to their salaries based on this flawed stat is my main beef.


Jonah Keri wrote an article about this the day after CP blew the save in the Opener.

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-trian ... erous-stat
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby pup » Sun Apr 22, 2012 10:35 pm

7foot3 wrote:
pup wrote:Anyone who thinks a closer is not important has never stood on a mound in the last inning of a game your team has battled all day to win.

It is different. It is different than coming out of the bullpen in any other inning. That is why it isn't always the best pitcher that makes the best closer.

Nothing I can do to convince anyone this is true, but to have the opportunity to do it.

Tribe is a perfect example. Vinnie Pestano > Chris Perez. In every situation imaginable. Except getting the last out of a tight game. As of now. If I remember correctly, he has said this on more than one occasion (Vinnie that is).



Baseball players have always believed in a lot of dumb, incorrect things. That doesn't mean they are all of a sudden correct. Fine, its different, but how much different? What has to happen for a guy who strikes out 12.3 per 9 with a 1.07 WHIP in a ton of high leverage situations for you to know that he can't get guys out in the 9th?


Like I said. I will never be able to convince anyone that has not been in the situation the difference.
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby 7foot3 » Mon Apr 23, 2012 12:47 am

pup wrote:
7foot3 wrote:
pup wrote:Anyone who thinks a closer is not important has never stood on a mound in the last inning of a game your team has battled all day to win.

It is different. It is different than coming out of the bullpen in any other inning. That is why it isn't always the best pitcher that makes the best closer.

Nothing I can do to convince anyone this is true, but to have the opportunity to do it.

Tribe is a perfect example. Vinnie Pestano > Chris Perez. In every situation imaginable. Except getting the last out of a tight game. As of now. If I remember correctly, he has said this on more than one occasion (Vinnie that is).



Baseball players have always believed in a lot of dumb, incorrect things. That doesn't mean they are all of a sudden correct. Fine, its different, but how much different? What has to happen for a guy who strikes out 12.3 per 9 with a 1.07 WHIP in a ton of high leverage situations for you to know that he can't get guys out in the 9th?


Like I said. I will never be able to convince anyone that has not been in the situation the difference.


But you didn't even try. You just are treating everyone who doesn't agree with you as some simpleton who could never get this, like we're 6 year olds trying to understand quantum physics.

Yeah, I get that baseball players think it is different. But that's also because that, along with a lot of other traditions both smart and dumb, has been beaten into them from day one. If it was stressed from a young age that the closer should have to get the middle of the order out, regardless of the inning, then Perez would be super-awesome at getting out 3-4-5 hitters, and Pestano would be used elsewhere. It's just a self-fulfilling prophecy. A guy has a closer mentality until he can't get guys out, then he doesn't have the mentality anymore. It doesn't matter that he can't get guys out in any situation, its about the mentality.
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby pup » Mon Apr 23, 2012 1:34 am

Is it easier to sell a kid a piece of bubble for a quarter or to sell an adult a Lexus?

Obviously the first one is easier. Most think it is because of the obvious reasons. A closer will tell you the second is harder for a different reason. Odds are you are selling a Lexus to an adult because you need to. And that applies pressure. Now that same sale on the last day of the month to hit your quota? Even harder.

It has nothing to do with simpletons. All I can say is until you have felt the pressure of standing in the middle of the diamond in the 9th you have no way to compare the difference between that and doing it in the 8th. At least no other way I have found. Maybe if you take the above scenario and include if you don't make that sale, the entire dealership gets closed? You have a guy that can finish that sale, pressure be damned, but you used him to sell the used model on the 20th of the month and he is unavailable. So you have to send the guy that occasionally wets his pants under pressure.

And that last part about the mentality from your post? The only guys that can still get guys out once they lose their talent are closers. They never lose the mentality. At some point their stuff gets so bad mentality isn't enough.

Look at it another way for 1 minute. Why do so many closers struggle in a non-save situation? They didn't forget how to throw, their pitches are no worse, nothing is different. Except the pressure.
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby 7foot3 » Tue Apr 24, 2012 5:30 pm

pup wrote:Is it easier to sell a kid a piece of bubble for a quarter or to sell an adult a Lexus?

Obviously the first one is easier. Most think it is because of the obvious reasons. A closer will tell you the second is harder for a different reason. Odds are you are selling a Lexus to an adult because you need to. And that applies pressure. Now that same sale on the last day of the month to hit your quota? Even harder.

It has nothing to do with simpletons. All I can say is until you have felt the pressure of standing in the middle of the diamond in the 9th you have no way to compare the difference between that and doing it in the 8th. At least no other way I have found. Maybe if you take the above scenario and include if you don't make that sale, the entire dealership gets closed? You have a guy that can finish that sale, pressure be damned, but you used him to sell the used model on the 20th of the month and he is unavailable. So you have to send the guy that occasionally wets his pants under pressure.

And that last part about the mentality from your post? The only guys that can still get guys out once they lose their talent are closers. They never lose the mentality. At some point their stuff gets so bad mentality isn't enough.

Look at it another way for 1 minute. Why do so many closers struggle in a non-save situation? They didn't forget how to throw, their pitches are no worse, nothing is different. Except the pressure.



You spent a long time saying the same exact thing as before "I get it and you don't", and built up a few strawmen in the process. That's still not useful to me. Your example seems to have Mariano Rivera as your closer and Jensen Lewis as your set up guy. Yeah, of course your "closer" is the better bet there. But we're talking about a guy who 'yeah will probably get it done, but scare the hell out of you in the process' against the guy who absolutely locks it up on the 20th of the month.

And you may be right that closers still can get guys out when they lose their talent, or usually struggle in non-save situations, but I'll wait patiently for you to actually prove that. Yeah, we remember when Perez blew a couple tie games last year, but we need more than a couple anecdotes.
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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby pup » Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:29 pm

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Re: Tribe vs A's 4/21/12

Unread postby pup » Tue Apr 24, 2012 10:54 pm

Go ask Mike Matheny.
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