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First Base Discussion

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First Base Discussion

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jan 12, 2012 4:33 pm

Paulie C wrote up his excellent First and Foremost post and it's on everyone's mind.

I'll start up this thread based on this Tweet from Hoynes a minute ago.

hoynsie paul hoynes
Heard this: #Indians like 1B Carlos Pena and went to ownership to see if they could make a deal work. No word on decision.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Rat_Tail » Thu Jan 12, 2012 4:48 pm

Why not? You know what you're getting with Pena. Power and a terrible average.

As long as we don't overpay I don't see why Matty cakes can't start the season in AAA. But considering we're shelling out 5 million for Grady we probably would overpay.

Anyone know what Pena's asking for?
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:02 pm

Rat_Tail wrote:Anyone know what Pena's asking for?


I imagine he wants something near the 10M he's made in each of the last two seasons.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby jerryroche » Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:36 pm

skatingtripods wrote:I imagine he wants something near the 10M he's made in each of the last two seasons.


Ouch!!!
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby RedDawg53 » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:08 pm

jerryroche wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:I imagine he wants something near the 10M he's made in each of the last two seasons.


Ouch!!!


Tribe paid that much for Kerry Wood. Hafner is getting paid 13m next season. We gotta sign a power hitter. Although Pena's avg the last three season's .227-.196-.225- (cache). Did I mention he has power?
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:09 pm

jerryroche wrote:
skatingtripods wrote:I imagine he wants something near the 10M he's made in each of the last two seasons.


Ouch!!!


He's a platoon player now and knows it. He's reportedly asking $5mil.

This would leave us with $5mil in the bank to acquire a player at the deadline if we're in the race.

I like it. Vs righties;

Grady CF
Kipnis 2B
Droobs SS
Santana C
Choo RF
Pronk DH
Pena 1B
Chiz 3B
Brantly LF

Vs Lefties;

Donald CF
Kipnis 2B
Droobs SS
Santana 1B/DH
Choo RF
Sloth 1B/DH
Cunningham LF
Hannahands 3B
Marson C

Looks pretty good to me if Donald can handle CF as reports indicate he can. I really like to see Acta not hesitate to PH later in the game too. Donald, Sloth, Cunningham even Marson are nice options off the bench against Loogies.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:12 pm

bookelly wrote:He's a platoon player now and knows it. He's reportedly asking $5mil.


Where did you read that?

I don't think we'd really have to make it known that we're asking ownership for 5M. Reportedly, we had between 3-5M left to spend anyway.

The fact that it came out that we had to ask ownership to come up with money makes me believe he wants closer to 8-10M.
Last edited by skatingtripods on Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:13 pm

I hope they wait to see where Fielder lands first, there may be a better, cheaper and younger 1B out there. Though the advantage with Lee/Pena/Kotchman is we don't touch our 'pen.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:18 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
bookelly wrote:He's a platoon player now and knows it. He's reportedly asking $5mil.


Where did you read that?

I don't think we'd really have to make it known that we're asking ownership for 5M. Reportedly, we had between 3-5M left to spend anyway.

The fact that it came out that we had to ask ownership to come up with money makes me believe he wants closer to 8-10M.


Pretty sure I saw Hoynsie post that. I'll try to find it...
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Jan 12, 2012 6:23 pm

Nope Pluto...

"5. Against lefties, the Indians (in theory) would only have three left-handed hitters in the lineup -- Shin-Soo Choo, Jason Kipnis and Hannahan. None have been destroyed by lefty pitching. Do the Indians want to sink at least $5 million into someone such as Pena? "

And you're correct...at least 5 Mil.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby skatingtripods » Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:40 pm

Thanks for the find.

Couldn't believe when I saw that Kotchman made so little last year.

I wish I had inside info. Sucks playing the guessing game. Like, what is Kotchman asking for? 4.5M? 5? What does Lee want? 6 or 7M? Pena wants 7-8M probably.

It's all hypotheticals.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby bookelly » Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:42 pm

The buzz is all over the 'tubes about us and Pena. This org keeps a tight ship so something must be brewing. I still hope they wait for Fielder to land, which means we have to wait for Yu Darvish. He's the one holding everything up. When is that deal deadline?

Btw - 7 out of the 20 starters we face in the central are LH'ed. Get used to seeing Donald in CF I guess.

Edit - and 8/25 in the East and 8/20 in the West. That's 35% of the time we'll see a lefty.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby pup » Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:26 am

Awesome. Platoons! War Shapies book being back in business!
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Jumbo » Fri Jan 13, 2012 9:51 am

Casey Kotchman just seems like a better fit for the Indians. Yeah, he's got less power, and he's just coming off one good season...but he at least has a chance of hitting above .240, has a much smaller platoon split (so you could at least consider playing him every day), he's younger, and he might even come cheaper.

I know it seems really easy to just go Santana/Pena against righties and Marson/Santana against lefties, but Santana is going to need some actual days off.

BTW: Cous's article suggests playing Carlos at DH on the vs. lefties days, but he didn't mention the legitimate issue (or, at least, legitimate to MLB managers) of the catcher getting hurt, forcing the DH to catch, forcing the pitcher to hit. Santana might DH for a game or two, but it's never going to be an actual plan.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby pup » Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:16 am

Isn't Pena a very good defensive 1B? Why would you DH him against LH? If you are going to have the shitty part of his game in the lineup, you might as well get the benefit of a good defensive 1B.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:23 am

He hit around .115 against lefties last year. You gotta sit him down against the southpaws.

Still has a good glove, and takes his fair share of walks. His overall OBP was in the .350 range last year.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Jumbo » Fri Jan 13, 2012 10:28 am

pup wrote:Isn't Pena a very good defensive 1B? Why would you DH him against LH? If you are going to have the shitty part of his game in the lineup, you might as well get the benefit of a good defensive 1B.


I think he's fine defensively, but I don't think Kotchman is that bad either.

The switch above wasn't DHing him against LH, it was C-Santana / 1B-Pena vs righties and C-Marson / 1B-Santana against lefties. Pena sits. I'm a Carlos Pena fan, but his splits against lefties are just too brutal to play every day.

He had 120 at bats against lefties last year. He had sixteen (16) hits.

The only ways he plays at this point is against righties, whether it's at first base, DH, or pinch hitting.

Kotchman, Lee, or a trade. And since the Indians seem unwilling to deal from their depth in relief (and I get that), it's Kotchman or Lee. Or take Pena, but accept the fact that it has to mean a Shapiran platoon.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby pup » Fri Jan 13, 2012 11:01 am

Jumbo wrote:
pup wrote:Isn't Pena a very good defensive 1B? Why would you DH him against LH? If you are going to have the shitty part of his game in the lineup, you might as well get the benefit of a good defensive 1B.


I think he's fine defensively, but I don't think Kotchman is that bad either.

The switch above wasn't DHing him against LH, it was C-Santana / 1B-Pena vs righties and C-Marson / 1B-Santana against lefties. Pena sits. I'm a Carlos Pena fan, but his splits against lefties are just too brutal to play every day.

He had 120 at bats against lefties last year. He had sixteen (16) hits.

The only ways he plays at this point is against righties, whether it's at first base, DH, or pinch hitting.

Kotchman, Lee, or a trade. And since the Indians seem unwilling to deal from their depth in relief (and I get that), it's Kotchman or Lee. Or take Pena, but accept the fact that it has to mean a Shapiran platoon.


I was referring to this:

Jumbo wrote:BTW: Cous's article suggests playing Carlos at DH on the vs. lefties days
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby paulcousineau » Fri Jan 13, 2012 12:48 pm

Jumbo wrote:BTW: Cous's article suggests playing Carlos at DH on the vs. lefties days, but he didn't mention the legitimate issue (or, at least, legitimate to MLB managers) of the catcher getting hurt, forcing the DH to catch, forcing the pitcher to hit. Santana might DH for a game or two, but it's never going to be an actual plan.

Maybe I'm alone, but this "lose the DH" idea shouldn't play that big of a role. If Marson were to get hurt or get pinch-hit for or pinch-run for late in a game, the Indians can play substitute PH in the DH spot (removing pitchers in the process) so pitchers wouldn't have to hit. It is true that if Marson got hurt early in the game, it might result in a pitcher stepping to the plate two or three times before PH/reliever comes into play. To me, keeping Santana away from 1B and keeping him healthy is a reward worth that risk.

Maybe a 3rd catcher would be in order to accommodate this hypothetical, but I don't think it would be a dealbreaker or prevent Santana from being the DH to balance out Hafner in 1/4 of the games.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Jumbo » Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:10 pm

pup wrote:
Jumbo wrote:
pup wrote:I was referring to this:

Jumbo wrote:BTW: Cous's article suggests playing Carlos at DH on the vs. lefties days


Oops.

My quote was referring to Carlos Santana, not Carlos Pena.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Jumbo » Fri Jan 13, 2012 1:18 pm

paulcousineau wrote:Maybe I'm alone, but this "lose the DH" idea shouldn't play that big of a role.


It shouldn't, but MLB managers, broadcasters, and so on like to think it does. Like you say, the "worst case scenario" of 2 or 3 pitcher ABs in one game doesn't outweigh possible benefits in roster construction, keeping Santana healthy, keeping Pronk away from lefties, and so on.

I only pointed it out because your article didn't mention it as the key reason why Even If It's A Good Idea It Wouldn't Happen Anyway.

The other issue, of course, is that if Santana DH's against lefties, somebody still has to play first against them too. So you're right back at square one.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby pup » Fri Jan 13, 2012 2:08 pm

Jumbo wrote:
pup wrote:
Jumbo wrote:
pup wrote:I was referring to this:

Jumbo wrote:BTW: Cous's article suggests playing Carlos at DH on the vs. lefties days


Oops.

My quote was referring to Carlos Santana, not Carlos Pena.


Got it.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby bookelly » Fri Jan 13, 2012 5:34 pm

Just read on mlb.com the Indians are in on Yoenis Cespedes. Our LH'd first baseman could be Brantley. For the $7-9 Mil they would spend on Pena they could get Cespedes.

Yoenis is playing winter ball...he went 0-3 with El Sombrero D'oro. Ouch! Maybe he's lowering his stock by playing Winter ball.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby gotribe31 » Sat Jan 14, 2012 12:35 pm

Jumbo wrote:
paulcousineau wrote:Maybe I'm alone, but this "lose the DH" idea shouldn't play that big of a role.


It shouldn't, but MLB managers, broadcasters, and so on like to think it does. Like you say, the "worst case scenario" of 2 or 3 pitcher ABs in one game doesn't outweigh possible benefits in roster construction, keeping Santana healthy, keeping Pronk away from lefties, and so on.

I only pointed it out because your article didn't mention it as the key reason why Even If It's A Good Idea It Wouldn't Happen Anyway.

The other issue, of course, is that if Santana DH's against lefties, somebody still has to play first against them too. So you're right back at square one.


We could always resign Jolbert Cabrerra. Pretty sure he was the emergency catcher (as well as emergency 3B, SS, 2B, LF, RF and trainer) for a few years running.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby skatingtripods » Sat Jan 14, 2012 9:54 pm

bookelly wrote:Yoenis is playing winter ball...he went 0-3 with El Sombrero D'oro. Ouch! Maybe he's lowering his stock by playing Winter ball.


All the reports say he can't hit the slider.

We already have 15 guys who can't hit sliders.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Sat Jan 14, 2012 10:11 pm

skatingtripods wrote:
All the reports say he can't hit the slider.




Neither could Cerrano, but that worked out. As long as Cespedes brings Jobu he will be fine.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Sat Jan 14, 2012 10:16 pm

I still think the best overall option outside of a trade is Lee. That one means less platoons. Somewhere Shapiro just cried.

Each option has its positives and Negatives, but hey, they are all better than what we have now, so either way it will be an upgrade and we need all the upgrades we can get.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:34 am

Here's BP's writeup:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/artic ... leid=15757

At risk of sounding like a sabrhole (sorry Pup), the guy does his job. He's just about an .850 OPS guy, good for at least 25 HR, 85 RBI, 85 BB. And he's a good defender, which as we saw last season should not be discounted, as he would be half of most of the the putouts in any game. Especially with the Tribe's staff.

He works counts, and drives the ball. Him and Santana back to back nearly guarantees 15 pitches. Figure they'll come up three times a game, that's 45 pitches, or roughly half of a SPs count (I understand it's an over simplification, but the point remains). And he's not Matt LaPorta, which is the other option if they sit pat.

I can think of a lot worse FAs to sign.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby leadpipe » Sun Jan 15, 2012 10:59 am

Last First Base Discussion I had with was Timmy Reynolds in about the fourth grade. Pretty much centered around how to get there one day.

Anyway, status quo till they get rid of Old Yeller Hafner.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby bookelly » Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:51 pm

Bankee's are in on Pena. Or...Pena's agent dropped the Y-bomb to get the Tribe to raise the offer by a couple million.

Regardless, nothing gets done until Yu Darvish signs or not. Then Fielder can sign. Then we can see if we can maybe get a 1b on the trade block, and spend our 10 mil on Cespedes. Or pony up the $ for Pena.

Darvish deadline is Weds.

/10 mil for a platoon player is stupid. And without precedent. No way this guy gets 10 mil unless the Yankees are serious. And if the Yankees pay 10 mil for a platoon player they smoke better weed than me. (smoke)
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:17 pm

bookelly wrote: 10 mil for a 25 HR, 85 RBI, solid defensive player is stupid.


Does this change your perspective? Didn't the Indians have one of those at SS?

Not pimpin', just askin'.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby peeker643 » Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:22 pm

I want to see what the word is on Santana when he reports to camp. If his head is right and he's physically good and he's worked on the defensive side then they need to do something still at 1B.

Otherwise, I'd rather play the season w/Santana at 1B and an excellent defensive catcher handling a quality pitching staff in Marson.

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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:47 pm

peeker643 wrote:I want to see what the word is on Santana when he reports to camp. If his head is right and he's physically good and he's worked on the defensive side then they need to do something still at 1B.

Otherwise, I'd rather play the season w/Santana at 1B and an excellent defensive catcher handling a quality pitching staff in Marson.

ymmv



What?

Are you worried he'll show up 20 lbs overweight? Why would you think that? I can't recall that ever happening........oh wait.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby bookelly » Sun Jan 15, 2012 5:32 pm

Erie Warrior wrote:
bookelly wrote: 10 mil for a 25 HR, 85 RBI, solid defensive player is stupid.


Does this change your perspective? Didn't the Indians have one of those at SS?

Not pimpin', just askin'.


Yeah but Droobs plays everyday and is a switch hitter. We're gonna face Lefty starters 35% of the time this year, so you're only looking at 400 at bats vs. 600. I'd pay him 66% of 10 mil. 6.6 mil sounds about right.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby 7foot3 » Mon Jan 16, 2012 2:58 pm

bookelly wrote:Yeah but Droobs plays everyday and is a switch hitter. We're gonna face Lefty starters 35% of the time this year, so you're only looking at 400 at bats vs. 600. I'd pay him 66% of 10 mil. 6.6 mil sounds about right.



If he could hit lefties like he could hit righties, do you really think he would only make 10 million a year? Yeah, the entirety of his offensive value is against RHP, but it's still quite a bit of value.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby motherscratcher » Mon Jan 16, 2012 9:55 pm

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs has an interesting little article up on Jesus Montero. He's trying to decide if Montero should be a DH or given his shot behind the plate.

The situation is different, but in reading it I thought a lot of the same things might apply when we are discussion Santana's future at 1B vs C.

If you think Montero can be better than the worst defensive catcher in baseball, it is probably worth taking the risk on trying him behind the plate and evaluating further – the Rangers are certainly happy they did so with Napoli after the Angels gave up on him beind the plate, after all. However, if you believe that Montero’s physical limitations will prevent him from being decent behind the plate, then moving him to DH now might very well be the right decision.


http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-jesus-montero-more-valuable-at-catcher-or-dh/

Interesting read, I thought.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:01 pm

Pena off the market to Tampa.

Looks like Kotchman or D. Lee now.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby GodHatesClevelandSport » Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:11 pm

LaPorta had more doubles, triples, homers, and RBI than Kotchman in 200 fewer plate apperances last season.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:19 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Pena off the market to Tampa.

Looks like Kotchman or D. Lee now.


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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:21 pm

GodHatesClevelandSport wrote:LaPorta had more doubles, triples, homers, and RBI than Kotchman in 200 fewer plate apperances last season.


Yeah, but if we signed him and he sucked, just imagine how many Casey Crotchman posts there would be....
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby GodHatesClevelandSport » Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:24 pm

Here's a list of remaining free agents. Yikes: http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/ ... ents.shtml

Maybe the Indians should void Fausto's contract and offer the money to Roy Oswalt. Fuggedabout improving at 1B.
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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:38 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:
GodHatesClevelandSport wrote:LaPorta had more doubles, triples, homers, and RBI than Kotchman in 200 fewer plate apperances last season.


Yeah, but if we signed him and he sucked, just imagine how many Casey Crotchman posts there would be....


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Re: First Base Discussion

Unread postby skatingtripods » Fri Jan 20, 2012 1:51 pm

GodHatesClevelandSport wrote:LaPorta had more doubles, triples, homers, and RBI than Kotchman in 200 fewer plate apperances last season.


And significantly worse defense.

I'm all for the guy who is going to help the ground ball pitching staff out the most. If that means he's going to be a slap hitting contact guy, so be it. .300 with a .370 OBP and Gold Glove caliber defense is worth it.

There's a chance we get 40-45 HR from our middle infield, 20 more from RF and DH, and 25 from Santana wherever he plays.

I'm fine with that kind of power production.

Only problem I see is where Kotchman fits in the lineup. His AVG & OBP make him a decent two hitter (assuming 2011 wasn't a fluke season or an outlier) but he won't hit that high. He's not really a run producer, so he shouldn't hit 3rd-6th. Guess he'd hit 7th or 8th.
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