Discussing Asdrubal Extension

[skatingtripods]

Tim Dierkes over at MLBTradeRumors wrote up this column looking at what a realistic price would be to extend Asdrubal.

He came up with around 27M over 4 years (4.25, 6.5, 8, 8) with the last two years buying out his first two years of free agency.

Obviously, AC totally fell apart after the All-Star Break, probably just from being fatigued since he only played half of 2010.

I think it'd be important for the Tribe to sign him to an extension, both from a PR perspective and from the perspective that we have no SS in waiting until maybe Lindor who is at least 5 years away and a total question mark like most A-ball prospects. SS are way too expensive on the open market and are really coveted in trade negotiations, so it's hard to imagine we can replace him in a couple years.

I'd be content with 4/27 for AC. Curious to hear anyone else's thoughts.

[peeker643]

I'd personally do that deal in a second if I'm the Indians. AC's coming into his prime, is adequate defensively and continues to improve offensively to the point of becoming an impact bat.

The fatigue issue is real and I'd hope that AC works on conditioning and that the Indians let Donald spell him enough to keep him fresh.

I think the numbers are actually low in terms of money though. He's quite possibly worth a lot more.

[skatingtripods]

Granted, in Dierkes's article, he also says that Jhonny Peralta is a superior defender to Asdrubal.

I mostly just wanted to use his article as a time-relevant talking point.

The hardest part for the Indians is to ascertain what kind of player Cabrera is. Is he ever going to hit 20-25 HR again? Is he a .275/10/60 player or last year's .273/25/92? That's a big difference.

It's a tough spot. If they wait and he has another good year, he's potentially priced out of this market by not agreeing to an extension and deciding to test the market. If they sign him and he reverts back to his old numbers, it could be a fairly drastic overpayment.

There are two intangibles that Cabrera possesses that I think carry some weight in negotiations. He's the leader of the team and is one of the hardest workers on the ballclub. That could push the Indians to do something sooner rather than later.

[paulcousineau]

I'd personally do that deal in a second if I'm the Indians. AC's coming into his prime, is adequate defensively and continues to improve offensively to the point of becoming an impact bat.

The fatigue issue is real and I'd hope that AC works on conditioning and that the Indians let Donald spell him enough to keep him fresh.

I think the numbers are actually low in terms of money though. He's quite possibly worth a lot more.

Agreed that those numbers look pretty low. If he'd take that, the Indians would have to jump on it, but the 2nd and 3rd year arbitration numbers look far too low.

[paulcousineau]

Oddly, the piece asserts that he'd get about $4.8M in arbitration in 2012, then says "What would be a fair offer for Cabrera? I'm thinking $4.25MM for 2012, $6.5MM for 2013, and $8MM apiece for two free agent years."

Somebody's not thinking this thing through...
If MLBTR is projecting $4.8M in arbitration, why would he be amenable to a deal that would offer him LESS in 2012? Bump each of those numbers up about $1M to $1.5M per year and I think you're closer to what it would take for Asdrubal to talk long-term deal.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

Agreed on basically all accounts. I thought the numbers looked low too. If Cabrera would do that deal then the Indians would/do need to jump on that faster than me on Carmen Electra.

Realistically though, I dont think his agent would be content with 4/27. I would assume he would shoot for around 4/47 or a little less because most agents are not about getting a "fair" deal for their client, they want to set the bar and go higher than the last guy.

I guess we need hope Asdrubal prefers the security now and wont want to chance anything if he is approached with an extension around what MLBTRADERUMORS is guessing.

[WiscTribeFan]

I question if a 4 year extension would be plausible for this management. The last couple of guys they extended (Sizemore, Pronk) bombed so badly that I wonder if they'll even bother to go this route any longer.

[paulcousineau]

I question if a 4 year extension would be plausible for this management. The last couple of guys they extended (Sizemore, Pronk) bombed so badly that I wonder if they'll even bother to go this route any longer.

Don't confuse the Hafner/Westbrook extensions with locking these guys up through arbitration years and buying out FA years. They signed Hafner and Westbrook to deals when they were about to become FA, not when they still were under club control for a while.

The Sizemore deal, while underwhelming at the back end, paid him just under $24M over 6 years. For the production they got out of him at the early part of that deal and the numbers that they had him at (he got $5.8M in 2010), I'd do that deal again considering what Grady could have been, had injuries not derailed him. For some perspective, Coco Crisp just got a $14M for 2 years, during which he is sure to disappoint.

If you can get these guys to give up FA years when they're in the arbitration process and feel confident that they'll perform at SOME level of success, you take those risks.

[Jumbo]

Although it's not an ideal comparison, because he was originally signed as a Cuban free agent, wouldn't Alexei Ramirez's current contract be a reasonable comparison for Cabrera?

After 3 years of major league time, Ramirez hit .282/.313/.431 (18 HR, 70 RBI) as a 28 year old and won the silver slugger award at SS. The White Sox exercised his 4th year option for 2011 ($2.75M), and then signed him to the following extension:

2012 (5th year): $5M
2013 (6th year): $7M
2014 (1st FA): $9.5M
2015 (2nd FA): $10M
2016 (3rd FA): $10M option or $1M buyout.

i.e., guaranteed $32.5M/4 years.

Cabrera is several years younger. He has a less consistent offensive track record than Ramirez, but with much more upside. FWIW, Fangraphs had Ramirez as the best defensive SS in MLB last year (as we know, Cabrera was rated worst, YMMV, etc.). They also have Ramirez as an above average defender for the last 3 years. Finally, Ramirez is Cabera's current #1 similarity score comp on BB-Ref.

I'm not sure what the contract inflation rate has been the last few years, but assuming it's been about its historical level of 10%...that gives us, for Asdrubal:

2012: $5.5M
2013: $7.75M
2014: $10.5M
2015: $11M

For $34.75M/4. Looks reasonable to me. Throw in bonus-for-being-traded clause and an option-with-a-sizeable-buyout and you've got a deal.

(Edited to fix the years above. For some reason I originally started with 2013 instead of 2012.)

[paulcousineau]

For what it's worth, here's the proposal that I came up with back at the end of September:
Asdrubal Carrera Contract Extension – 3-year deal, $27M guaranteed
2012 - $5.5M
2013 - $8.5M
2014 - $10M
2015 - $12M club option ($1M buyout)
2016 - $13M club option ($2M buyout)
http://www.theclevelandfan.com/cleveland-indians/5-indians-archive/8619-extending-a-lazy-sunday

Not sure if he'd take that many club options, but those are the numbers that I think brings Asdrubal to to the table.

[gotribe31]

For what it's worth, here's the proposal that I came up with back at the end of September:
Asdrubal Carrera Contract Extension – 3-year deal, $27M guaranteed
2012 - $5.5M
2013 - $8.5M
2014 - $10M
2015 - $12M club option ($1M buyout)
2016 - $13M club option ($2M buyout)
http://www.theclevelandfan.com/cleveland-indians/5-indians-archive/8619-extending-a-lazy-sunday

Not sure if he'd take that many club options, but those are the numbers that I think brings Asdrubal to to the table.

This makes a lot more sense than the MLBTR numbers. Both in terms of the increased $$ figures and the additional club options, which is the Indians preferred way of doing business due to it lessening the risk for the club later in the deal.

[Score27]

For what it's worth, here's the proposal that I came up with back at the end of September:
Asdrubal Carrera Contract Extension – 3-year deal, $27M guaranteed
2012 - $5.5M
2013 - $8.5M
2014 - $10M
2015 - $12M club option ($1M buyout)
2016 - $13M club option ($2M buyout)
http://www.theclevelandfan.com/cleveland-indians/5-indians-archive/8619-extending-a-lazy-sunday

Not sure if he'd take that many club options, but those are the numbers that I think brings Asdrubal to to the table.

I agree. Plus, the Tribe really needs to keep him. Imo, he will only get better and better.

[WiscTribeFan]

The big assumption here is that A-Cab and, more importantly, his agent wish to give up a possible chance at free agency in 2014. His 2012 salary is already a given through the arby process. If he has another year like last year, his earning potential becomes pretty high, something that having club options can't compensate for. I also don't see any agent agreeing to two prime earning years being in control of the team in the way of club options. One, maybe, but definitely not two. For a young stud SS, probably not even one. His agent will push for 4-5 years of guaranteed coin, and who could blame them? If Cleveland doesn't want to give it to him, someone else will on the market.

A-Cab's got the leverage here. All he has to do is produce and his payday will come.

I think he also is going to need to be convinced that Cleveland is on track to be a winner during those years. Money is nice, but so is winning. Why not try for both?

Just being Devil's Advocate. Both parties need to want to do this. Cleveland has obvious incentive to get this done, but does A-Cab and his agent?

Personally, I think Cleveland waits another year to see if last year was his new baseline or if it was a career year. I'd expect that A-Cab explores the market it 2014, and it will be his doing, not Cleveland's.

[pod2dawg]

For Christ sakes sign the kid, I couldn't take another Indian leading the Tigers to the playoffs.

[skatingtripods]

Heyman says Asdrubal filed for 5.2, Indians offered 3.75.

Gap that big screams that we want him to sign a long-term extension with the first year around 4-4.25. Let's see what happens.

[bookelly]

Tribe isn't signing anyone to a long term deal. Dolan is clearing the deck so he can put the team up for sale. He's hoping to catch lightning in a bottle this year to increase the teams value. This is why Josh Willingham (3 years) was out of our market, but a Pena (1 or 2 year + option) is viable.

Just like McCourt (all the Dodgers are on short term deals except Kemp) Dolan knows that long term contracts are subtracted from the franchise overall value. We're gonna see him spend money this year (our window is 2012 and may be only 2012) in the hope that he can increase attendance, make a playoff run, and get a return on his investment.

The Plain Dealer, Si, and Forbes have all mentioned Dolan is looking to sell. This org is too tight lipped to let something like that slip to three sources.

Dolan may say he want's to hand the team to his kids, but why? Why would you hand your kids what has to be a giant headache? Every day he's called cheap and a loser. Would you want to give that legacy to your kids?



Anyway, Droobs gets a one year deal.

[skatingtripods]

AC signed to a one-year deal. Multi-year had been on the table. We'll see if anything progresses through spring training or during the season.

No arbitration again this year.

[e0y2e3]

Seriously, if this team doesn't lock up Asdrubel, well, bad bad signs and it time to start asking for a sale.

I'm sorry Grady and Hafner didn't work out, but this is essentially punting even "The Plan" if they don't lock him up.

[Jumbo]

A one-year deal doesn't rule out an extension. I think that several recent extensions they've signed have been during spring training after a one-year had been signed for that season.

[skatingtripods]

Cabrera extension signed.

2 yrs 16.5M.

Takes him through 2014 and eats up one year of free agency.

[peeker643]

Cabrera extension signed.

2 yrs 16.5M.

Takes him through 2014 and eats up one year of free agency.

Cheap-ass effing Dolans. Bunch of a-holes in that front office.

[leadpipe]

Hopefully they included a clause that implores him not to show up to spring training a fat ass for at least one of those years.

[pup]

Hopefully they included a clause that implores him not to show up to spring training a fat ass for at least one of those years.

That is included in every contract.

Called a walk year.

Pinstripes in 2015