Moderators: peeker643, jb, swerb, pup
by e0y2e3 » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:40 pm

by motherscratcher » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:43 pm
e0y2e3 wrote:Ah yes, Tom Heckert, master draft expert.
Reminds me of Phil Savage, SOOOPER SCOUT AND DRAFT GENIUS!!!
Just sayin'
You've got hope and prognostication, I've got 12 years of shit backing me up.
by e0y2e3 » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:44 pm

by motherscratcher » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:49 pm
by jerryroche » Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:54 pm
motherscratcher wrote:I'd like to think that RG3 will fall to #4 and we can grab him there, but the more I think about it, if we have to trade up to get him then that's what we should do. If we come out of this draft without RG3 it will be a failure, no matter how many other holes are filled.
by FUDU » Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:13 pm
mattvan1 wrote:FUDU wrote:I see it as there is such a thing as trading up, and then there is trading up. No way in hell do I trade away 3 high picks to move up 1-2 spots to take a guy that isn't the sure fire thing in this draft (RG3), when those picks could improve the team enough that maybe next year you have so few holes that making such a move to fill your QB needs makes more sense.
You do realize that one of those high picks is our own at #4? So this concept of "three high picks" is a fallacy. Unless you plan on not using our own pick and banking it for a rainy day?
The net cost to the Browns, in this hypothetical scenario, IS ONE ADDITIONAL PICK - THE ONE WE GOT FROM THE FALCONS WHICH SHOULD FALL AROUND 21-23.
That's it. One additional pick, and an extra pick at that. Well worth the risk to move up to #2 overall to grab RGIII. If the Rams or whomever is in the 2 hole says "no" then you have a decision on how much more you want to offer. But let's please stop the "mortgaging the future" because we would need to use the #21 overall.
by mattvan1 » Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:31 pm
FUDU wrote:mattvan1 wrote:FUDU wrote:I see it as there is such a thing as trading up, and then there is trading up. No way in hell do I trade away 3 high picks to move up 1-2 spots to take a guy that isn't the sure fire thing in this draft (RG3), when those picks could improve the team enough that maybe next year you have so few holes that making such a move to fill your QB needs makes more sense.
You do realize that one of those high picks is our own at #4? So this concept of "three high picks" is a fallacy. Unless you plan on not using our own pick and banking it for a rainy day?
The net cost to the Browns, in this hypothetical scenario, IS ONE ADDITIONAL PICK - THE ONE WE GOT FROM THE FALCONS WHICH SHOULD FALL AROUND 21-23.
That's it. One additional pick, and an extra pick at that. Well worth the risk to move up to #2 overall to grab RGIII. If the Rams or whomever is in the 2 hole says "no" then you have a decision on how much more you want to offer. But let's please stop the "mortgaging the future" because we would need to use the #21 overall.
Regardless of your personal approach to drafting the next elite QB (including RG3 or not) those picks are indeed OUR assets now no matter how we got them. So they can in fact be used in any way to improve the time. But that doesn't mean you throw any or all of them away either b/c of how & why you acquired them.
Bottom line is you have the opportunity to pick 3 times in the first 36 slots and that equates to the opportunity to make a significant stride toward improvement (with this GM calling the shots). With this roster that could/probably should mean 3 starters. However no matter the approach as to how to use those picks playing it off as is there is some free lunch involved which justifies added risk taking is short sighted and could be very foolish.
by e0y2e3 » Tue Dec 27, 2011 3:36 pm

by peeker643 » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:09 pm
by motherscratcher » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:18 pm
peeker643 wrote:Quick, lazy question: is that pick value matrix current? By that I mean is it before or after the rookie wage scale went into effect that made top picks less expensive and, therefore, theoretically more valuable in terms of what you might need to give up?
by motherscratcher » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:20 pm
mattvan1 wrote:The risk is greater, obviously. But then tell me this - if we do not grab the franchise QB in 2012, then when?
by mattvan1 » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:30 pm
motherscratcher wrote:mattvan1 wrote:The risk is greater, obviously. But then tell me this - if we do not grab the franchise QB in 2012, then when?
This is where I am. When? And How? Because every year we wait is...another year (profound, I know) and potentially more costly if not impossible.
by Gradysmanldy » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:31 pm
motherscratcher wrote:Of course this scenario sucks balls and puts us behind yet another year, but I'm not sure were the QB comes from, if not the top of the draft. Another bonus with 2 1st rounders next year is we would get to have this same exact conversation again next year. Good times!
by FUDU » Tue Dec 27, 2011 4:45 pm
mattvan1 wrote:FUDU wrote:mattvan1 wrote:FUDU wrote:I see it as there is such a thing as trading up, and then there is trading up. No way in hell do I trade away 3 high picks to move up 1-2 spots to take a guy that isn't the sure fire thing in this draft (RG3), when those picks could improve the team enough that maybe next year you have so few holes that making such a move to fill your QB needs makes more sense.
You do realize that one of those high picks is our own at #4? So this concept of "three high picks" is a fallacy. Unless you plan on not using our own pick and banking it for a rainy day?
The net cost to the Browns, in this hypothetical scenario, IS ONE ADDITIONAL PICK - THE ONE WE GOT FROM THE FALCONS WHICH SHOULD FALL AROUND 21-23.
That's it. One additional pick, and an extra pick at that. Well worth the risk to move up to #2 overall to grab RGIII. If the Rams or whomever is in the 2 hole says "no" then you have a decision on how much more you want to offer. But let's please stop the "mortgaging the future" because we would need to use the #21 overall.
Regardless of your personal approach to drafting the next elite QB (including RG3 or not) those picks are indeed OUR assets now no matter how we got them. So they can in fact be used in any way to improve the time. But that doesn't mean you throw any or all of them away either b/c of how & why you acquired them.
Bottom line is you have the opportunity to pick 3 times in the first 36 slots and that equates to the opportunity to make a significant stride toward improvement (with this GM calling the shots). With this roster that could/probably should mean 3 starters. However no matter the approach as to how to use those picks playing it off as is there is some free lunch involved which justifies added risk taking is short sighted and could be very foolish.
I'm not advocating moving into the #1 slot, so I don't need to use the second round pick.
Not sure where I ever wrote anything about a free lunch - and as far as starters with the first round picks (mine and the one from Atlanta) I am planning on drafting a QB who will start for the next 10 years. I will assure you that the benefit to this team from using #21 to move up and get a franchise QB will far outweigh whatever other starter you would advocate taking at that position.
The risk is greater, obviously. But then tell me this - if we do not grab the franchise QB in 2012, then when?
by Triple-S » Tue Dec 27, 2011 5:46 pm
Swerb wrote:Go start a blog if you want to tell the world your incomprehendible ramblings.
Cerebral_DownTime wrote:I have a big arm and can throw the ball pretty damn far...... maybe even over those moutains. The Browns should sign me, i'll let you all in locker room to drink beer. Then we can all go out the parking lot to watch me do motorcycle stunts.

by Cerebral_DownTime » Tue Dec 27, 2011 8:28 pm
by e0y2e3 » Tue Dec 27, 2011 8:29 pm

by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:11 pm
mistero wrote:According to the draft pick value system , it would take at least our other number 1 from Atlanta (value if pick 25 is 740) and next years number one (always worth less than current year picks...maybe worth 800 points).
Our 4th pick 1800 plus our 25th pick 740 plus 2012 1st rounder est 800=
3340
1
3000
2
2600
3
2200
4
1800
by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:20 pm
FUDU wrote:pup wrote:As far as being a pro, NFL QB, Andrew Luck could play against the Steelers Sunday and give the Browns a better chance to win than they have. If today was his first practice. I cannot say the same about RG3.
I hope you don't really believe that pup. Not saying it is impossible, but it is highly unlikely, and down right not probable in the least. Do I think Luck will be head & shoulders better than Colt McCoy, sure I do. I also believe it will take a little time for Luck to get his feet underneath him. The only advantage to having Luck this Sunday would be his arm strength, otherwise he has no real measurable advantages over Colt at this moment in time, comparing apples to apples competition. Can he close that gap and quickly (with maybe a few weeks of practice and a few real games) IMO yes, but not as you state.
by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:23 pm
pup wrote:THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS OK QB PLAY IN TODAY'S NFL. YOU ARE EITHER A STUD AND SUPER BOWL LEADING MATERIAL OR YOU ARE NOT. JOE FLACCO, MARK SANCHEZ, ANDY DALTON, ALEX SMITH..............WILL ALL DO A NICE JOB OF GETTING YOU INTO THE PLAYOFFS. BUT IF YOU WANT TO WIN A SUPER BOWL YOU NEED TO GET A STUD. I NO LONGER CARE ABOUT BEING RESPECTABLE. I CARE ABOUT WINNING A SUPER BOWL.
by swerb » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:25 pm
by FUDU » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:27 pm
Hikohadon wrote:FUDU wrote:pup wrote:As far as being a pro, NFL QB, Andrew Luck could play against the Steelers Sunday and give the Browns a better chance to win than they have. If today was his first practice. I cannot say the same about RG3.
I hope you don't really believe that pup. Not saying it is impossible, but it is highly unlikely, and down right not probable in the least. Do I think Luck will be head & shoulders better than Colt McCoy, sure I do. I also believe it will take a little time for Luck to get his feet underneath him. The only advantage to having Luck this Sunday would be his arm strength, otherwise he has no real measurable advantages over Colt at this moment in time, comparing apples to apples competition. Can he close that gap and quickly (with maybe a few weeks of practice and a few real games) IMO yes, but not as you state.
You mentioned arm strength. I would argue the other measurable advantages that Luck has over Colt are:
1. Height
2. Weight
3. Accuracy
4. Mobility (the ability to not get killed in the NFL while scrambling)
5. Arm Strength (the difference is so great that I have to mention it twice)
You could also argue advantages like personal confidence and fellow-players' belief in his ability, but those wouldn't be readily measurable and are subject to debate.
And, yeah, I too think that Andrew Luck takes the field against Pittstown on Sunday and does just as well as Colt Wallace. It's not like we're talking about All Pro performers here - a stud QB should be able to enter a game cold and still hold his own against career backups (which Wallace is and Colt will be).
by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:39 pm
FUDU wrote:Overall size yeah Luck has the advantage, I just didn't really think people would reach for that as a talking point. As far as more mobile, no. Colt is more than mobile enough and is really a bad point to bring up in comparison to Luck.
FUDU wrote:In keeping with the original claim made by pup, we'd get creamed by Shitsburgh this week with Luck at QB, unless there are new NFL rules allowing us to make trades, pick up FAs or draft things like lineman and play makers this time of year.
No matter how bad we want Luck or RG3 nothing changes the fact our Oline sucks and our WRs are pretty damn bad.
by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:45 pm
swerb wrote:GBN's latest mock has the Redskins trading up and jumping us to take RG3:
http://www.gbnreport.com/2012projection.html
Obviously a shot in the dark at this point. But gun to my head, that's the scenario I can see playing out. Was or Mia jumping us while we dick around or try and get too cute.
The valid point, which was brought up in this thread - if not a franchise QB now, with such a high pick - when?
You're at the top of the draft. You gotta strike this year. If you don't got the balls to do what needs done to get Luck or RG3 this year, do everything you can to add another #1 next year.
YMMV
by swerb » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:47 pm
Hikohadon wrote:swerb wrote:GBN's latest mock has the Redskins trading up and jumping us to take RG3:
http://www.gbnreport.com/2012projection.html
Obviously a shot in the dark at this point. But gun to my head, that's the scenario I can see playing out. Was or Mia jumping us while we dick around or try and get too cute.
The valid point, which was brought up in this thread - if not a franchise QB now, with such a high pick - when?
You're at the top of the draft. You gotta strike this year. If you don't got the balls to do what needs done to get Luck or RG3 this year, do everything you can to add another #1 next year.
YMMV
I've now learned to make sure to let the poster know that I am not attacking them when I state that any mock draft that includes a mock trade isn't worthy of being flushed with my excess ball hair, especially when they acknowledge it as a shot in the dark.
There may very well be a trade, but it's just a mock on top of a mock which means I might as well be reading a Narnia book mascarading as a report on market trending.
by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 10:51 pm
swerb wrote:My point in posting it is that it seems like the most likely scenario to me at this point. Browns have to be AGGRESSIVE if they really like and want RG3.
by peeker643 » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:15 pm
by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:16 pm
Hikohadon wrote:The "rest of the team is so bad that no QB could succeed" argument is just incredibly dull. There ain't a team in this league no matter how bad - even STL - that couldn't be massively improved by adding an elite QB.
by FUDU » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:18 pm
Hikohadon wrote:I thought you might. Would you say POS is more mobile than Colt? Probably not in the traditional sense. But he is in the sense that he can avoid pressure in the effort to make a play much better than Colt does. Plus, when he scrambles, he rarely gets lit up.
Luck is mobile in the POS sense. Colt may run faster or whatever, but will get killed if he does it too much. He simply cannot survive in the NFL running the ball more than once or twice a game, and that negates any perceived mobility people think he has.
Hiko wrote:I've heard you make that argument before, and I respectfully call it bullshit.
The "rest of the team is so bad that no QB could succeed" argument is just incredibly dull. There ain't a team in this league no matter how bad - even STL - that couldn't be massively improved by adding an elite QB.
by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:25 pm

by FUDU » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:27 pm
by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:33 pm
FUDU wrote:Well I don't see Rogers and Brady running for their lives very often, definitely not getting plastered.
by FUDU » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:35 pm
Hikohadon wrote:FUDU wrote:Well I don't see Rogers and Brady running for their lives very often, definitely not getting plastered.
A. Because the recognize the pressure and get rid of the ball quickly.
B. Saw Rogers get plastered 3 times against Chicago, less than I saw Seneca get plastered against Baltimore.
by Hikohadon » Tue Dec 27, 2011 11:38 pm
FUDU wrote:Hikohadon wrote:FUDU wrote:Well I don't see Rogers and Brady running for their lives very often, definitely not getting plastered.
A. Because the recognize the pressure and get rid of the ball quickly.
B. Saw Rogers get plastered 3 times against Chicago, less than I saw Seneca get plastered against Baltimore.
Well then Rogers must suck, unless Chicago's D is pretty good.
Seneca > Rogers.
by pup » Wed Dec 28, 2011 8:52 am
FUDU wrote:Well I don't see Rogers and Brady running for their lives very often, definitely not getting plastered.
by FUDU » Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:56 am
by mistero » Wed Dec 28, 2011 11:10 am
by justmebd » Wed Dec 28, 2011 11:21 am
by Hikohadon » Wed Dec 28, 2011 11:31 am
by Hikohadon » Wed Dec 28, 2011 11:38 am
justmebd wrote:Two things to consider.
1. RG3 does not seem to be a prototypical WCO QB, so why would the Browns draft him? (Wait, silly question, the Browns love bashing square pegs into round holes)
2. This coaching staff is just as likely to properly develop a QB prospecct as I am to sprout a third arm just to start dismissively wanking everytime the discussion of the Browns future franchise QB comes up.
2012 Timeline: The Browns start a new QB, Pat Shurmur continues to completely fail the team, The Big No-Show continues to laugh all the way to the bank IN SEATTLE to cash Randy Lerner's checks, and Randy Lerner hits the reset button again when the team finishes 3-13 next year.
Wash, rinse, repeat.
by e0y2e3 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 11:46 am
Hikohadon wrote:I can only speak for myself, but...
I suggest you don't watch many GB games b/c Rodgers doesn't run that often.
I suggest that half the sacks that Colt takes are his fault because he holds the ball too long.
I suggest a lot of the pressure was brought because opposing Defenses knew that Colt couldn't handle it. I suggest that teams don't blitz Rodgers that way because they know he'll make them pay.
I suggest that Pashos is indeed a turd, but is hardly getting beat every play as some would like to believe.
I suggest that the Browns O Line is probably every bit as good as if not better than GB's. I further suggest that a veteran QB like Wallace seems to have significantly more time with the same O Line that Colt had.
I suggest that in today's NFL, QB play is so important that it can make everyone around the QB look good/bad depending on how good/bad the QB play is.
I suggest that if you put Rodgers on the Browns they are at least 5 games better, and if you put Colt on the Packers they are at least 5 games worse.
I suggest you look at Indy as an example of this before you disregard it.
I suggest the Packers would also be dead in the water without Rodgers since they have no running game, fairly poor O Line play, and their D is porous.
I suggest we have to change the way we think, that we have to understand that Dilfers and Brad Johnsons won't be winning titles any more, that flawed teams with great QB play no longer have Houston Oilers results but have Green Bay Packers results, that RB's are now no more important than TE's, that having an elite QB is now essential to competing for championships in this league, and that the NFL that we knew as a kid is for all intents and purposes dead.
You may refuse to agree with me, but that's why I think that the idea that no QB can win behind the Browns line is archaic and flawed.

by swerb » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:05 pm
by HoodooMan » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:19 pm
Hikohadon wrote:I suggest we have to change the way we think, that we have to understand that Dilfers and Brad Johnsons won't be winning titles any more, that flawed teams with great QB play no longer have Houston Oilers results but have Green Bay Packers results, that RB's are now no more important than TE's, that having an elite QB is now essential to competing for championships in this league, and that the NFL that we knew as a kid is for all intents and purposes dead.
by Hikohadon » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:28 pm
HoodooMan wrote:Hikohadon wrote:I suggest we have to change the way we think, that we have to understand that Dilfers and Brad Johnsons won't be winning titles any more, that flawed teams with great QB play no longer have Houston Oilers results but have Green Bay Packers results, that RB's are now no more important than TE's, that having an elite QB is now essential to competing for championships in this league, and that the NFL that we knew as a kid is for all intents and purposes dead.
This part is wrong.
I've seen more than enough "This is how it is, this is how it's going to be, you have to have this, not that"s since I've been watching the NFL (and sports in general) to know they're always, always wrong.
Also, Eli Manning is not an elite QB, and 2007 wasn't that long ago.
by HoodooMan » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:29 pm
by Hikohadon » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:34 pm
HoodooMan wrote:Colt McCoy's 2011 numbers: 265-463, 57.2%, 5.9 YPA, 2733yds, 14 TD, 11 INT, 74.6 rating
Eli Manning's 2007 numbers: 297-529, 56.1%, 6.3 YPA, 3336yds, 23 TD, 20 INT, 73.9 rating
^FUN FACT
by HoodooMan » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:44 pm
by e0y2e3 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:48 pm

by HoodooMan » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:50 pm
by e0y2e3 » Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:54 pm

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