Cleveland Indians & MLB

by **Pressrunnr** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 1:37 am

Per Ol' Leather Pants, as we know him here in Cincy:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/m ... ngham.html

by **Adverb Harry** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 2:15 am

I guess I'll take him if that's the absolute best we can do, but man, what a crappy offseason it'll shape out to be.

by **British_Pharaoh** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 10:09 am

Going to be leading the league in whiffs next season

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 1:45 pm

British_Pharaoh wrote:Going to be leading the league in whiffs next season

Was there ever any doubt?

by **swerb** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 2:24 pm

Not a huge fan of Willingham.

Players like him in general, that field and throw below average, hit .250, and K a ton ... despite a little pop from the bat.

He'd help. Better team with him than without him. But I am hopeful the Indians are able to fire their last payroll bullet a little better.

by **motherscratcher** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 2:33 pm

swerb wrote:Not a huge fan of Willingham.

Players like him in general, that field and throw below average, hit .250, and K a ton ... despite a little pop from the bat.

He'd help. Better team with him than without him. But I am hopeful the Indians are able to fire their last payroll bullet a little better.

This. I'm not going to start burning stuff if they sign him, but consider me completely underwhelmed.

Then again, if there's one thing the Indians have proven, it's that there's always room for a dude who K's like the bastard child of Rob Deer and Pete Incaviglia.

by **aclayman** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 2:50 pm

Well, he didn't strikeout as many times as B.J. Upton last year. So... yay?

by **paulcousineau** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 3:29 pm

Dave Dellucci in the 3 years prior to signing with Cleveland:
.258 BA / .359 OBP / .494 SLG / .854 OPS / 115 OPS+ in 1,206 PA

Josh Willingham’s last 3 years:
.257 BA / .360 OBP / .479 SLG / .839 OPS / 125 OPS+ in 1,515 PA

The Tribe paid Dellucci $11.5 over 3 years. If they give more than double that for Willingham in a 3-year deal, um…

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 4:03 pm

God I hope he chooses the Twins.

Im not asking The Tribe to spend Pujols money, but seriously, but Jesus at least a step up from Willingham.

by **British_Pharaoh** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 6:29 pm

We haven't even offered him a deal so I think our interest is lukewarm.

by **LakeErieWarriors** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 6:39 pm

Other than being a righty, what do we want him for? I thought the outfield was pretty well set: Choo, Brantley, Sizemore. Or is this Sizemore insurance?

by **Cerebral_DownTime** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 6:50 pm

Let's make a run at Prince Fielder.

by **7foot3** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 10:39 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:Im not asking The Tribe to spend Pujols money, but seriously, but Jesus at least a step up from Willingham.

What exactly would you like? There's not a whole lot of bats in between Pujols/Fielder and the Willingham, Pena, Cuddyer group. Beltran is it, and I'd be really worried about his health going forward.

by **peeker643** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 10:49 pm

Willingham is an offensive upgrade over anyone in the organization the Indians could plug in. Defensively he's poor.

Question I have is how much they're willing to pay Willingham. He made $6m last season and hit 29 HRs and drove in 95 runs in a tough park to hit in.

He has GOT to be looking for more than the $3m the Indians allegedly have left to spend and you'd think this was his last,, big chance to cash in on some decent offensive numbers. Where's the money coming from? It's substantially more than $3million you'd figure they'll have to offer as well as at least 3 years, no?

by **7foot3** » Sun Dec 11, 2011 11:02 pm

peeker643 wrote:Willingham is an offensive upgrade over anyone in the organization the Indians could plug in. Defensively he's poor.

Question I have is how much they're willing to pay Willingham. He made $6m last season and hit 29 HRs and drove in 95 runs in a tough park to hit in.

He has GOT to be looking for more than the $3m the Indians allegedly have left to spend and you'd think this was his last,, big chance to cash in on some decent offensive numbers. Where's the money coming from? It's substantially more than $3million you'd figure they'll have to offer as well as at least 3 years, no?

Supposedly the Twins offered Cuddyer 3/24 and view Willingham as a close alternative, so I'd guess you have to get real close to that.

by **bookelly** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 1:15 am

Twins are waiting on Cuddyer. Willingham is their back-up plan. Cuddyer signs, then we make an offer just below 3/24, say 3/20. If we add Casey too I'd be happy.

/Willingham has played 1B in the past. Just 5 games, but he has done it at least.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 1:25 am

If they give that guy 20 million over 3 years everybody in that front office should be fired.

There is absolutely no need to tie yourself to such an average guy like willingham for 3 years.

by **swerb** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 9:20 am

The Paulie C Dellucci comp is terrifying.

by **7foot3** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 5:00 pm

swerb wrote:The Paulie C Dellucci comp is terrifying.

I'm not a huge fan of this comparison. One, selective endpoints, if we go to 5 years, the difference in OPS+ is 17 points, while the difference in PA jumps to around 800. Willingham has a much stronger track record. Also the numbers show that Dellucci had to be protected against opposite-handed pitching and still couldn't match Willingham.

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:If they give that guy 20 million over 3 years everybody in that front office should be fired.

There is absolutely no need to tie yourself to such an average guy like willingham for 3 years.

Again I ask, who should we get? Average MLB free agents get that kind of money now.

by **Kingpin74** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 5:25 pm

For them to go into the offseason with this little financial ammo, the Jimenez trade looks like even more of a joke. Why the hell did they accelerate their contention window if they knew they'd have no cash to actually fill in their gaps? This is what they were comfortable cashing in their trade chips on and going after the 95 win Tigers with? Derek Lowe, Grady's knee, and being on the outskirts of affording Josh Willingham? Really?

Choo and Asdrubal have 2 more years before free agency, it's not like this was their last chance to get value out of them.

by **7foot3** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 8:31 pm

Kingpin74 wrote:For them to go into the offseason with this little financial ammo, the Jimenez trade looks like even more of a joke. Why the hell did they accelerate their contention window if they knew they'd have no cash to actually fill in their gaps? This is what they were comfortable cashing in their trade chips on and going after the 95 win Tigers with? Derek Lowe, Grady's knee, and being on the outskirts of affording Josh Willingham? Really?

Choo and Asdrubal have 2 more years before free agency, it's not like this was their last chance to get value out of them.

At the time the Indians made the trade, they were 2 games back of a team that was on pace to 85. It's kind of hard to assume that you're going to have to play at a 120 win pace the rest of the way. And like you said, Choo and Asdrubal are only under contract for 2 more years, the same as Jimenez. I'm not sure the contention window doesn't start closing after 2013 if we don't make that trade.

by **bookelly** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 9:31 pm

I'm struggling to see the hate for Willingham. Everyone bitches about the lack of money spent, then when they do go out and spend some, everyone bitches about the guy they get. This is a guy who's gonna hit seventh in the lineup. Seventh. 7th. If they wanna spend money on a guy who hits seventh...let them. Is he Babe Ruth? No. Can he hit 30+ HR's from the seventh spot? Yes.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:11 pm

7foot3 wrote:
Again I ask, who should we get? Average MLB free agents get that kind of money now.

Someone who doesn't take 3 yrs 20 million to sign. Its a complete waste of money by a team who claims they have to be responsible with their finances. People who are clamoring for Willingham at that price now will be bashing this front office next year for the same contract. And if they actually wante dto give him 20 million I would rather they save that to help themselves try and lock up Choo or AC or Nasty Masty, anything than blowing it on Willingham.

Signing no one in this instance is better than blowing 20 million on an average to below average player. They have until the July 31st trade deadline to make a move, sometimes patience is a virtue.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:14 pm

bookelly wrote:. Can he hit 30+ HR's from the seventh spot? Yes.

Dont forget the 150 K's

by **bookelly** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:15 pm

His sOPS+ is 123. He's better than an average player.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:21 pm

bookelly wrote: This is a guy who's gonna hit seventh in the lineup. Seventh. 7th.

yes...... which is why its a problem. They want to latch themselves to this guy (a 7th hitter ) for 3 years and 20 million.

If he wanted to sign for 1 year at 4 million to 5 million I would think about it.

Also its not just about spending money its about spending it the right way. I don't want them to spend just to spend or to spend wrong. I'm not impressed by them spending 50 milllion nor am I mad if they only spend 5 million. The amount of money to me means nothing, its about the player that they sign, type of deal signed and how they allocate their resources.

by **bookelly** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:26 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:
bookelly wrote: This is a guy who's gonna hit seventh in the lineup. Seventh. 7th.

yes...... which is why its a problem. They want to latch themselves to this guy (a 7th hitter ) for 3 years and 20 million.

If he wanted to sign for 1 year at 4 million to 5 million I would think about it.

Also its not just about spending money its about spending it the right way. I don't want them to spend just to spend or to spend wrong. I'm not impressed by them spending 50 milllion nor am I mad if they only spend 5 million. The amount of money to me means nothing, its about the player that they sign, type of deal signed and how they allocate their resources.

Agreed. I think we should wait to see what the terms of this contract are before we get worked up about it.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:27 pm

bookelly wrote:His sOPS+ is 123. He's better than an average player.

I have looked at all his different stats, Offensively and defensively. Nothing about this guy screams above average. He is just a guy at least IMO.

by **7foot3** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 10:55 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:Someone who doesn't take 3 yrs 20 million to sign. Its a complete waste of money by a team who claims they have to be responsible with their finances. People who are clamoring for Willingham at that price now will be bashing this front office next year for the same contract. And if they actually wante dto give him 20 million I would rather they save that to help themselves try and lock up Choo or AC or Nasty Masty, anything than blowing it on Willingham.

Signing no one in this instance is better than blowing 20 million on an average to below average player. They have until the July 31st trade deadline to make a move, sometimes patience is a virtue.

So, just someone, anyone, but don't hold you to anything specific that can come back to bite you later. Signing no one means that Carrera is viable major league option. How is that better?

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:I have looked at all his different stats, Offensively and defensively. Nothing about this guy screams above average. He is just a guy at least IMO.

.361 career OBP, 29 homers last year, and that 124 sOPS+ is relative to only LF-ers last year. Those are all above average numbers. I'm not sure what you're looking at.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:29 pm

7foot3 wrote:
So, just someone, anyone, but don't hold you to anything specific that can come back to bite you later. Signing no one means that Carrera is viable major league option. How is that better?

Its better because you are not anchoring yourself to an albatross of a contract. You could sign Andrew Jones, Mike Cameron for way less and on 1 year deals and they would be better viable options than Carrera if that is what you are concerned about.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Mon Dec 12, 2011 11:46 pm

7foot3 wrote:
.361 career OBP, 29 homers last year, and that 124 sOPS+ is relative to only LF-ers last year. Those are all above average numbers. I'm not sure what you're looking at.

You are cherry picking his best stats from different years and his career stats. That's just manipulating them to try and make a case. Also in reference to his homeruns when you look at his track record, history shows that his next total will be far below that 29.

The guy has a very uneven and unimpressive track record. He K's far more than he walks, he doesnt hit for a very good average, his defense is not very well regarded nor is it average. His fielding % is below average although its only .2 % his RF/9 and RF/G are both well below league avaerage

by **7foot3** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:41 am

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:You are cherry picking his best stats from different years and his career stats. That's just manipulating them to try and make a case. Also in reference to his homeruns when you look at his track record, history shows that his next total will be far below that 29.

The guy has a very uneven and unimpressive track record. He K's far more than he walks, he doesnt hit for a very good average, his defense is not very well regarded nor is it average. His fielding % is below average although its only .2 % his RF/9 and RF/G are both well below league avaerage

I used his career OBP and 2 different stats from last year. You said nothing about the guy screams above average. a .361 OBP and about 25 homers per 150 games is above average. And he's pretty much been around those numbers his entire career. You seem way too caught up in strikeouts. and Fielding % and range factor? Really?

And I can get behind Andruw Jones (but not really Mike Cameron) as an bench OF instead of Carrera, but I'd much rather have Willingham starting.

by **leadpipe** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:00 am

As a rule, you gotta overpay for free agents. Just the way it is. If you need proof track the next 100 or so free agent signings and then report on how many seemed like a "real good deal for the team."

Zeke Carrera gets 400 at bats for the team, you will stink. If the corpse of Mike Cameron gets 400 at bats you will stink.

This team has put itself in such a position with Travis 2 outta three games Hafner and Grady Sizemore in the starting line-up, that they gotta get another big league hitter here. Not Felix Pie or their 6th 5th outfielder. Someone you can put in the 5 or 6 hole and not have the opposing pitcher whack off pre-game cause he's so happy.

Willingham (or whomever may fit the slot described above) is gonna cost you more than you'd like, clearly. But if that contract is considered an "albatross" then you aren't going to win in the future anyway. Not like they are inking a big timer to a 8 year mega million deal.

Comes down to this, are ya tryin to win?

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:17 am

Tieing yourself to Willingham for 3 years is the Albatross, especially when there is no reason to do so.

I would rather have Mike Cameron or Andrew for one year than to tie myself to someone like Willingham for 3 years.

There is always the trade deadline to try and make a move as well rather than commit to Willingahm for so long now.

I dont really like Willingham all that much but as I stated before a 1 year deal is fine but if you would have to overpay for him then dont, they dont need to. He is not a guy you overpay for.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:31 am

7foot3 wrote:

I used his career OBP and 2 different stats from last year. You said nothing about the guy screams above average.

And I stand by that. You say he averages 25 homeruns per 150 games, well that's great....except he has never actually played in 150 games in a season. So I'm not excited about a guy who gets that average by having to combine stats from overlapping seasons. Also you say he averages 25 homeruns which is very misleading. In his 6 seasons he has only hit over 25 homeruns twice. That means 4 out of his 6 seasons he hasn't hot 25. So odds are he wont this year, plus his trends show his HR totals always go down the year after they jump back up.

Willingham is an average player who plays below average defense mostly because of his range. I'm sorry if I'm not excited about tying myself to him for 3 years. If it was a one year deal then I would be in...... well maybe but then again my preference is to find a starting 1b over an outfielder anyways.

by **bookelly** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:00 am

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:
7foot3 wrote:

I used his career OBP and 2 different stats from last year. You said nothing about the guy screams above average.

And I stand by that. You say he averages 25 homeruns per 150 games, well that's great....except he has never actually played in 150 games in a season. So I'm not excited about a guy who gets that average by having to combine stats from overlapping seasons. Also you say he averages 25 homeruns which is very misleading. In his 6 seasons he has only hit over 25 homeruns twice. That means 4 out of his 6 seasons he hasn't hot 25. So odds are he wont this year, plus his trends show his HR totals always go down the year after they jump back up.

Willingham is an average player who plays below average defense mostly because of his range. I'm sorry if I'm not excited about tying myself to him for 3 years. If it was a one year deal then I would be in...... well maybe but then again my preference is to find a starting 1b over an outfielder anyways.

If he signs with us, he's gonna see a ton of time at 1B. Against Lh'ers, he'll DH or play LF. He oddly has reverse career splits, but more HR power (lower slugging) against Lefties.

Santana would move to first against LH'ers and Brantley to CF with Josh at LF. Marson catches and you find a spot for Donald.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:11 am

bookelly wrote:
If he signs with us, he's gonna see a ton of time at 1B. Against Lh'ers, he'll DH or play LF. He oddly has reverse career splits, but more HR power (lower slugging) against Lefties.

Yeah that's my other fear with him, I would rather have a 1st baseman that can field or is used to being a 1st baseman, especially with all our sinkerballers. He has only played 3 MLB games at 1st. I'm not saying he cant learn it, I just don't want to count on a career outfielder at 1b, that goes for Brantley too. :thumbdown:

but I mean to each his own I guess.

by **bookelly** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 3:48 am

Dude, 1B ain't hard. That's where they stash the fat drunk guy who can hit HR's in softball. Shit, there's often a keg of beer at 1B. If you can play LF, you can play 1B.

by **Stu** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 8:08 am

career OPS+ is 121

last three seasons its been 127, 129, 121

thats the definition of an above average hitter. i'd be good with that sort of production for 7ish million, and he will only be 35 at the end of the contract.

there was a valid concern about his home runs dipping each year after a 20+ hr season. thats a good point, but what is missing is that the lower homerun number was due to a lack of playing time. if he stays healthy, theres no reason for him not to hit 25ish homeruns.

his defense may be below average, but is that enough to offset his OPS+ being 20-25 points higher than the average player plus, 60% of our starters are ground ball pitchers, maybe he'll be bored in LF.

one last point, look at the other team that wants him, its the Minnesota Twins. The team that frankly, a lot of us Indians fans wish our organization was run like. the team that wins on lower budgets. its not as if the other teams of interest are the cubs, angels, mets, or any other team that just pisses away money on overpriced free agents.

by **peeker643** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 11:23 am

Can't believe someone is more worried about the Dolan's money that the Dolans but it appears DHotP is that guy.

Willingham is an improvement. In fact, offensively he's a substantial improvement to anyone on the roster or in the organization. He's a legit major league hitter with power and the Indians need those.

Nope... he's not an ideal offensive player or a good defensive player. But $8m of Dolan money is fine by me for the next couple years when you're making your run. And if he costs too much in 3 years then you flip him.

We assume 3 yrs and $24m means that. Rarely does one small-mid market team pay for any multi-year deal itself anymore.

Improve the team. Now please.

by **7foot3** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 2:28 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:And I stand by that. You say he averages 25 homeruns per 150 games, well that's great....except he has never actually played in 150 games in a season. So I'm not excited about a guy who gets that average by having to combine stats from overlapping seasons. Also you say he averages 25 homeruns which is very misleading. In his 6 seasons he has only hit over 25 homeruns twice. That means 4 out of his 6 seasons he hasn't hot 25. So odds are he wont this year, plus his trends show his HR totals always go down the year after they jump back up.

Willingham is an average player who plays below average defense mostly because of his range. I'm sorry if I'm not excited about tying myself to him for 3 years. If it was a one year deal then I would be in...... well maybe but then again my preference is to find a starting 1b over an outfielder anyways.

Fine, we'll use his numbers as a full-time player, his HR total takes a huge dip to 22 HR/year. .360 OBP, 22 homers is just average?

by **skatingtripods** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:24 pm

Here are some career numbers:

Josh Willingham: .262/.361/.475/.836

Player A: .264/.360/.464/.824

Player B: .272/.343/.451/.794

Player C: .271/.335/.439/.794

Player D: .274/.369/.494/.863

Anybody want to take a guess who those four are?

by **gotribe31** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:30 pm

Asdrubal Cabrera
Mike Cuddyer
Dave Dellucci
Travis Hafner

by **tbone** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:31 pm

Per Rosenthal, Tribe OUT.

http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenthal/sta ... 2164985856

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal

Source: #Indians out on Willingham. #MLB

by **skatingtripods** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:31 pm

gotribe31 wrote:Asdrubal Cabrera
Mike Cuddyer
Dave Dellucci
Travis Hafner

Got one right.

They're all about the same age and same position.

by **skatingtripods** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 5:40 pm

skatingtripods wrote:Josh Willingham: .262/.361/.475/.836

Player A: .264/.360/.464/.824

Player B: .272/.343/.451/.794

Player C: .271/.335/.439/.794

Player D: .274/.369/.494/.863

Player A is Jayson Werth. (paid 13M this year, but 21M '15-'17)
Player B is, as Al guessed, Michael Cuddyer. (TBD salary)
Player C is Jason Kubel. (TBD salary)
Player D is Jason Bay. (paid 16M this year)

Considering that Cuddyer and Kubel will get around or exactly what Willingham gets, how anybody can argue that he's too expensive, based on market value, is laughable. His career OPS is 40 points higher than Kubel/Cuddyer and his OBP is significantly higher.

Unfortunate that we're out on him. Playing 1B would have cut down on the wear and tear he experiences in the OF nightly and he could have been a real RH asset.

by **leadpipe** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 7:13 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:Tieing yourself to Willingham for 3 years is the Albatross, especially when there is no reason to do so.

I would rather have Mike Cameron or Andrew for one year than to tie myself to someone like Willingham for 3 years.

There is always the trade deadline to try and make a move as well rather than commit to Willingahm for so long now.

I dont really like Willingham all that much but as I stated before a 1 year deal is fine but if you would have to overpay for him then dont, they dont need to. He is not a guy you overpay for.

Tieing yourself to Cameron for one year is an excellent plan as long as winning that year isn't a concern.

Or improving the team for that matter.

As a matter of fact, I'd place signing Mike Cameron for a year below doing nothing.

No need to sign a guy that blows. Got plenty of those around.

by **skatingtripods** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 7:15 pm

MLBastian Jordan Bastian
In response to fan Q... RT @MarkShapiro: @Brownsfan1623 Willingham's bat a perfect fit but defensive fit was not good.

This is from the team that plays Shelley Duncan in LF and also used to trot Ryan Garko out there.

Either he's hiding that it's financially motivated or we're going to suddenly put a shit-ton of emphasis on defense.

by **Dnthateonthepronk** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:11 pm

leadpipe wrote:
Tieing yourself to Cameron for one year is an excellent plan as long as winning that year isn't a concern.

Or improving the team for that matter.

As a matter of fact, I'd place signing Mike Cameron for a year below doing nothing.

No need to sign a guy that blows. Got plenty of those around.

Mike Cameron would be signed as a 4th outfielder and would be an upgrade over Carrera which what his type of signing would be used for. Also I don't want them signing Cameron or Andrew Jones as a starter, that's not what I'm advocating, if they signed one of them it would be just a 4th outfielder if the price is right.

What I am advocating is signing one of them as an OF for 1 year as opposed to tying yourself to an average replaceable guy like Willingham for 3 years.

by **bookelly** » Tue Dec 13, 2011 10:19 pm

Willingham signs with the Twins. Could we be the mystery team (along with Rockies) looking at Cuddyer? He's certainly a defensive match, 1B against righties, and LF vs. lefties. Twins offered 3/24, he's asking 3/30. 3/27 probably gets it done and leaves 1or 2 mil left for Casey or DeRosa.

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