MVP Ryan Braun tested positive for PED's

[RedDawg53]

Not like he's the first or last MVP to use roids...

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/r ... +Rumors%29

[swerb]

Wow

[Adverb Harry]

Maybe we could pick him up in a trade now...buy low! He could be that big right-handed bat we need.

[RedDawg53]

I wonder if the Brewers are gonna celebrate the unveiling of Braun's MVP trophy on Opening Day or After the 50 game suspension. Any thought?

[1Perry]

More and more I become a bigger fan of the minor leagues.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

I think this just might be one of the cases where its going to be a false positive

[motherscratcher]

More and more I become a bigger fan of the minor leagues.

They don't use PEDs in the minors?

[pup]

Dude had a couple of down years. Felt the need to live up to his deal, so he took a shot. It worked.

Until he got caught.

[WiscTribeFan]

Dude had a couple of down years. Felt the need to live up to his deal, so he took a shot. It worked.

Until he got caught.

You need to learn to analyze stats better.

[motherscratcher]

Everyone with an opinion should read Will Carrolls explanation of MLBs drug policy and how it works.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/will_carroll/12/10/braun-positive-test/index.html?sct=hp_t2_a4&eref=sihp

[Spin]

Maybe we could pick him up in a trade now...buy low! He could be that big right-handed bat we need.

Have you seen Travis Hafner since PED testing began?

[motherscratcher]

Dude had a couple of down years. Felt the need to live up to his deal, so he took a shot. It worked.

Until he got caught.

Yeah, Not to do with guilt or innocence, but I'm having trouble finding those down years.

[pup]

Didn't say bad years, but his HR declined for 2 straight seasons.

His slugging percentage had gone down each year in the bigs.

I would take his down years at any point in time, but power numbers were certainly trending down. So he took a shot.

[motherscratcher]

Didn't say bad years, but his HR declined for 2 straight seasons.

His slugging percentage had gone down each year in the bigs.

I would take his down years at any point in time, but power numbers were certainly trending down. So he took a shot.

I don't know, I guess. You say trending down. Someone else might say normal fluctuation. 2007 was certainly a great year, but a little bit shortened. He dropped off from that slightly in his second year, which is not unheard of. 2009 was probably his best year as a pro until this year. He dropped of slightly again in 2010. This year was an MVP year, which is not the least bit unusual for a superstar at age 27.

Dude has been nails every year in the bigs. Some years have been better than others but I don't see any type of smoking gun. His HRs have decreased a little, but havent they been down accross the board? At the same time he has walked more and Kd less every year. His body doesn't look like it changed at all.

I don't know. It might be exactly like you said, but I just don't see where Braun would really look at his career and where things were and decide he needed a shot.

I do know that he has a positive test, though, which bums me out.

[scrambler]

More and more I become a bigger fan of the minor leagues.

They don't use PEDs in the minors?

Yes, my assumption would be use is even higher there because you need to perform there to get your shot at big money in the majors.

[Adverb Harry]

Maybe we could pick him up in a trade now...buy low! He could be that big right-handed bat we need.

Have you seen Travis Hafner since PED testing began?

I was kidding.

I would love to get the full story on this, though. Dude's gotta be insane to get mixed up with that stuff now with the heightened scrutiny and consequences.

[motherscratcher]

This story is so far a very strange one.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15654

[Cerebral_DownTime]

The more PEDs these guys jam in their bodies the better.

[1Perry]

More and more I become a bigger fan of the minor leagues.

They don't use PEDs in the minors?

I'm certainly not there to see but after attending quite a few games I'd have to say that those I watched didn't get their money's worth if they are.

[leadpipe]

More and more I become a bigger fan of the minor leagues.

They don't use PEDs in the minors?

I'm certainly not there to see but after attending quite a few games I'd have to say that those I watched didn't get their money's worth if they are.

Cause in the bigs you're watching Major League players on juice.

And in the minors you're watching minor league players on juice.

And if you were watching college ball, you'd be watching college players on juice.

[Spin]

Maybe we could pick him up in a trade now...buy low! He could be that big right-handed bat we need.

Have you seen Travis Hafner since PED testing began?

I was kidding.

My bad

[Spin]

More and more I become a bigger fan of the minor leagues.

They don't use PEDs in the minors?

I'm certainly not there to see but after attending quite a few games I'd have to say that those I watched didn't get their money's worth if they are.

I thought they had been testing minor leaguers for years. Since the whole Canseco blow-up. It was only in the majors that the unions (and TV networks???) that blocked PED testing. That was my understanding.

[1Perry]

Mine too.

[gotribe31]

Wow...Braun reportedly won his appeal and will not be suspended. MLB saying they disagree with the decision but must abide by the arbiter's ruling. Shame of the whole thing is that it should never have been made public until AFTER the appeal, so really never in this case.

[gotribe31]

This keeps getting weirder. Apparently the test was overturned because the guy taking the sample kept it in his fridge instead of sending it to the testing company right away.

[peeker643]

This keeps getting weirder. Apparently the test was overturned because the guy taking the sample kept it in his fridge instead of sending it to the testing company right away.

Like an episode of Border Patrol. All it takes is a kink in the old chain of custody.

[gotribe31]

This keeps getting weirder. Apparently the test was overturned because the guy taking the sample kept it in his fridge instead of sending it to the testing company right away.

Like an episode of Border Patrol. All it takes is a kink in the old chain of custody.

Chain of custody matters. There's a reason you're supposed to do things the right way.

Also, that was your 18,000th post. Holy shit dude.

[pup]

Stupid.

So because some dude didn't follow the rules, the guy that didn't follow the rules gets away clean.

[gotribe31]

Stupid.

So because some dude didn't follow the rules, the guy that didn't follow the rules gets away clean.

The point is that we don't know for 100% sure that the guy (Braun) actually didn't follow the rules. What if the sample was tampered with? What if the guy is a Cardinals fan who took it home and injected HGH (or whatever) into it? He's no longer guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, so he can't really be fairly punished.

Is it LIKELY that the guy or someone else tampered with the sample? No, of course not. Is it POSSIBLE? Sure. So I agree with the decision. Sucks, but the procedure is in place for a reason.

[pup]

Stupid.

So because some dude didn't follow the rules, the guy that didn't follow the rules gets away clean.

The point is that we don't know for 100% sure that the guy (Braun) actually didn't follow the rules. What if the sample was tampered with? What if the guy is a Cardinals fan who took it home and injected HGH (or whatever) into it? He's no longer guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, so he can't really be fairly punished.

Is it LIKELY that the guy or someone else tampered with the sample? No, of course not. Is it POSSIBLE? Sure. So I agree with the decision. Sucks, but the procedure is in place for a reason.

Person A, at least possibly cheated.
Person B, at least possibly makes honest mistake.

Person A wins MVP.
Person B probably got fired.

If you are going to tamper with a specimen, wouldn't you make sure you didn't break the chain of custody in the process? More plausible to me, Braun got caught and dude hooked him up by holding the sample.

Whatever. They all cheat. Good for them. Finally a nice guy who is also MVPish got caught and boom, honest mistake. Good one.

[swerb]

My guess is that MLB suspects The Pup Theory here. And I do too. Braun gets caught. Tells 35k a year Sample Collector Guy not to turn in the specimen till Monday, knowing he can wiggle through that loophole. And then sends Paulie Walnuts over to the Sample Collector Guys house with a paper bag with about 100 large in it.

The MLB statement includes the words "vehemently disagrees". You don't bust out the V-word unless there is more to the story.

[pup]

My guess is that MLB suspects The Pup Theory here. And I do too. Braun gets caught. Tells 35k a year Sample Collector Guy not to turn in the specimen till Monday, knowing he can wiggle through that loophole. And then sends Paulie Walnuts over to the Sample Collector Guys house with a paper bag with about 100 large in it.

The MLB statement includes the words "vehemently disagrees". You don't bust out the V-word unless there is more to the story.

I am way more conspiracy theory than that. MLB is involved in the cover-up. You just cannot have that dude get busted at that time. All of your talking is for not if your MVP is still getting caught.

Like they said, if it was not leaked...we would have never heard about this. Because he would have "won" his appeal behind closed doors. Everyone is in spin mode now, including MLB.

They went too far with the vehemently disagrees line. The stronger that reaction, the less believable that reaction is.

And why is nobody bending over backwards to find this leak?

[swerb]

The one thing I will say in support of Pup's wild, full-blown conspiracy theory is that its surprising to me there haven't been more positive tests to this point. Especially given how frequently and randomly they allegedly test.

It does seem like there have been "just enough" people busted to remind people they're testing. Lower level guys, a big name guy on the way down/out in Manny, etc.

[Jumbo]

Just read a few articles on this. First of all, the independent arbitrator (Shyam Das) hasn't released his written report yet - it should be sometime in the next week or so. My guess is that the basis for the decision will essentially be this:

(1) MLB and MLBPA agreed on certain procedures to be followed.
(2) Those procedures are important, not just for the validity of the test, but also for the penalty to be imposed.
(3) Those procedures were not followed.
(4) Thus, even if the sample is not tainted, and there is indisputable evidence that Braun used steroids, the appropriate procedures need to be followed in order for the agreed-upon penalties to be valid.

Thus, although he won't actually say it in the decision, it's possible that Das's thinking was that Braun probably used steroids, but use isn't sufficient to actually impose the penalty. There needs to be use plus procedure.

On a related point: a lot of the discussion of this case has focused on "chain of custody" and such that is relevant for admissiblity in a criminal trial. But that's not really accurate here. Rather, the two sides agreed on certain procedures for a labor relations matter (not a criminal isse), and those procedures can be either less or more restrictive than what is required for admissibility in the evidentiary sense. Those procedures weren't followed, MLB loses.

MLB is apparently planning a suit in federal court, pending what the written decision looks like. A suit would probably close the door on an MLB Conspiracy Theory, but would leave open the possibility of a Braun Conspiracy Theory.

[peeker643]

Just read a few articles on this. First of all, the independent arbitrator (Shyam Das) hasn't released his written report yet - it should be sometime in the next week or so. My guess is that the basis for the decision will essentially be this:

(1) MLB and MLBPA agreed on certain procedures to be followed.
(2) Those procedures are important, not just for the validity of the test, but also for the penalty to be imposed.
(3) Those procedures were not followed.
(4) Thus, even if the sample is not tainted, and there is indisputable evidence that Braun used steroids, the appropriate procedures need to be followed in order for the agreed-upon penalties to be valid.

Thus, although he won't actually say it in the decision, it's possible that Das's thinking was that Braun probably used steroids, but use isn't sufficient to actually impose the penalty. There needs to be use plus procedure.

On a related point: a lot of the discussion of this case has focused on "chain of custody" and such that is relevant for admissiblity in a criminal trial. But that's not really accurate here. Rather, the two sides agreed on certain procedures for a labor relations matter (not a criminal isse), and those procedures can be either less or more restrictive than what is required for admissibility in the evidentiary sense. Those procedures weren't followed, MLB loses.

MLB is apparently planning a suit in federal court, pending what the written decision looks like. A suit would probably close the door on an MLB Conspiracy Theory, but would leave open the possibility of a Braun Conspiracy Theory.

I brought up chain of custody. Wasn't intended to be literal but rather as a similarity to criminal law (and civil arguments as well). 'Process' is a better way to look at it. The process is in place and established by MLB. If they, or one of their agents, are responsible for not following the process then they have to be held accountable.

FedEx fucking up, as an agent of MLB in this case, is MLB fucking up.

You might not like it, but that's a basic tenet in society. You lose track of the sample or deviate from the agreed and established process and you lose.

[peeker643]

BTW, you think it's bullshit here. We have some venues where we can't use BAC in defense of our insureds.

One of our guys hit a drunken woman at 2am as she fell into the roadway walking away from the bar. The attorney successfully argues there was no effective supervision over the chain of custody of her blood sample in terms of establishing BAC. We couldn't use it.

Now, we did have the fact that there were witnesses stating she left drunk and the EMTs got to her and found a bottle in her purse and noted she smelled strongly of alcohol. But we couldn't use the 'scientific' quantification of how much she had drank.

We have a $1million policy, she still leaks gray matter occasionally from the hole in her head. It' be nice to be able to go to the science. We can use witnesses, but they die, move, suck on the stand, lie and can be bought.

[Jumbo]

I brought up chain of custody. Wasn't intended to be literal but rather as a similarity to criminal law (and civil arguments as well). 'Process' is a better way to look at it. The process is in place and established by MLB. If they, or one of their agents, are responsible for not following the process then they have to be held accountable.

Right. I wasn't specifically referring to your post, just that's been the way a lot of the commentary has been headed, and trying to compare the "technicality" of this case versus the "technicality" of chain of custody in the criminal (or, yes, civil) sense. But here - as you note - the process is built into the agreed-upon policy. It's not a specific rule of evidence.

So, a lot of people have been (incorrectly, in my opinion) complaining that Braun "got off on a technicality." No. The "technicality" is an integral part of the procedure agreed to by both parties and necessary to be followed to impose the penalty.

[pup]

The integral part of the process is to keep players from taking steroids.

All this did was provide players and the league more outs. Sure we test. Our people. Our results. We tell you what we want you to know.

Oh shit. Someone leaked Braun failed? Better come up with something. How about he had double the testosterone level in him, but the guy left it in his fridge over the weekend because he thought Fed Ex was closed. And who knows how much testosterone dude has floating around in his fridge.

[peeker643]

The integral part of the process is to keep players from taking steroids.

No it's not. It's to punish those who do. And as part of of that they need to have their version of 'due process'. If they fucked it up they fucked it up.

I'm not disagreeing with you that it blows. But they need to have rules and processes in place that lay out the way they're going to review it and analyze it.

Where's that Clemens thread? You were a lot more liberal in that one

[Jumbo]

FYI: this is the policy.

http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/jda.pdf

Key point: D. Collection Procedures and Testing Protocols
All testing conducted pursuant to this Program shall be conducted in compliance with the Collection Procedures and Testing Protocols set forth in Addendum A hereto.

[pup]

The integral part of the process is to keep players from taking steroids.

No it's not. It's to punish those who do. And as part of of that they need to have their version of 'due process'. If they fucked it up they fucked it up.

I'm not disagreeing with you that it blows. But they need to have rules and processes in place that lay out the way they're going to review it and analyze it.

Where's that Clemens thread? You were a lot more liberal in that one

All the proof anyone needed in that Clemens thread was some loser who had a syringe in a paper bag for 7 years and an ax to grind

Are the laws on murder meant to punish murderers or to be a deterrent to murder?

I am kosher with having to have rules and processes. And they were not followed. According to the people that did not follow them anyway

Dude cheated.
Dude got caught.
Dude, like all the other "current stars" was not going to go down for it because MLB does not want anyone to go down for it.
Someone else leaked the failure.
All hell broke lose.

[pup]

The one and only time someone did not get the sample straight to Fed Ex just happens to be when the newly named MVP has record levels of testosterone in his system.



Brooklyn

Bridge

4

Sale

[peeker643]

Are the laws on murder meant to punish murderers or to be a deterrent to murder?

I don't think we want to go down that road. At least I don't. My answer would be 'to punish' though. Because if you look in the paper or on the news every day, it ain't no deterrent.

Guess I went down that road.

[pod2dawg]

Don't be so harsh Pup. It is entirely possible someone broke into the part-time urine collectors apartment, went over to his desk...opened the tupperware....broke through the double sealed specimen plastic and tape....read the identifying sticker...realized it was MVP urine......happened to have a testosterone patch on....dropped it in the sample making it 20> than normal. Repackaged the whole thing with no sign of tampering and left snickering...........

How much for the bridge?

.......oh, that's right.......Braun offered a DNA sample to prove it couldn't be his urine and BASEBALL declined........conveniently.

[WiscTribeFan]

I don't know where you live, Pup, but I sure as hell don't ever want you as a juror if I'm the defendant.

If you re-read the very first article posted on this thread it discusses the details on what the original test found. It claimed that the amount of testosterone they found was nearly double the highest reading they'd ever taken. As a scientist, that piece of data is somewhat compelling that something might be amiss with the test or the sample. A little higher than average, OK. Twice the highest amount ever tested screams that there might be something wrong with that sample. Does it mean that it isn't true? Nope, but it really casts a bit of a shadow on the result. Knowing that the right protocol was not followed basically makes this a no-brainer to throw out the result as far as I'm concerned. This is someone's career and reputation you're talking about. It's bad enough that a lot of folks won't believe this result, as we see above. Imagine flunking a drug test at work, getting fired but never taken drugs. You can't get that back. Not following protocol should have immediately nullified that result. Realistically, the test should have never been run.

Why wasn't a second sample taken to verify the first result? Again, as a scientist, you really need more than one experiment to really prove or dis-prove something. I guy fails a test once, maybe it's false. He fails it twice, there's no doubt as to his guilt.

It went on to say that a second test was run and it showed the testosterone was exogenous, not occurring naturally in Braun. OK, I'm assuming that test was run on the initial positive sample, and makes sense. Had it been a second sample and tested positive, no way would this been over-turned. 2 positive tests have an extremely high probability that they are correct.

In my mind, there is some considerable doubt placed here, which is why he was not penalized.

The rumors on the internet of him having herpes and needing steroidal treatments are much more interesting. One day you're the toast of Milwaukee, the next you're a drug-using herpes carrier all because some dipshit may have had it out for you.

[pup]

1 time. In all of the tests taken has a sample been held in somebody's fridge for the weekend.

Thousands of tests run every season. And one sample which showed no signs of being tampered with (not like it is in a bottle with a screw on lid) other than the fact it was stored at some dude's house, and it just happens to be the sample that showed the newly named MVP had failed a test.

Drug testing in general is a one sample test. Because you are testing what the person has in their system at that moment. Allow them time to take another? How does that prove what was in his system at the time of the original test one way or the other?

To think the guy that stored the sample in his fridge was able to alter that specimen because he doesn't like Braun (or whatever his reason) and have that not be detected by the test lab is more far fetched than the entire cover up once the premise that these guys are tested and everyone that fails is suspended has been tainted.

Wouldn't the test lab inspect for tampering prior to testing?

[pup]

Has anyone seen or heard if Braun was only Brewer tested that day?

[WiscTribeFan]

1 time. In all of the tests taken has a sample been held in somebody's fridge for the weekend.

Thousands of tests run every season. And one sample which showed no signs of being tampered with (not like it is in a bottle with a screw on lid) other than the fact it was stored at some dude's house, and it just happens to be the sample that showed the newly named MVP had failed a test.

Drug testing in general is a one sample test. Because you are testing what the person has in their system at that moment. Allow them time to take another? How does that prove what was in his system at the time of the original test one way or the other?

To think the guy that stored the sample in his fridge was able to alter that specimen because he doesn't like Braun (or whatever his reason) and have that not be detected by the test lab is more far fetched than the entire cover up once the premise that these guys are tested and everyone that fails is suspended has been tainted.

Wouldn't the test lab inspect for tampering prior to testing?

When you've got a couple of hundred specimen jars in front of you, how careful are you going to be to see if they'd been 'tampered' with. And these samples are probably in lids with screw tops. What kind of containers do you think they're in? Stainless steel with locks?

And had this been your drug test that you failed without taking anything, and you found out that some mope had your sample for 48h in his home fridge, what would you do? Same thing Braun did.

To think the guy that stored the sample in his fridge was able to alter that specimen because he doesn't like Braun (or whatever his reason) and have that not be detected by the test lab is more far fetched than the entire cover up once the premise that these guys are tested and everyone that fails is suspended has been tainted.

But your theory that he paid the guy to fuck up the protocol is logical? And for Braun, a guy with basically unlimited money, to actually take steroids without having the right masking agents, makes even less sense, especially with today's testing procedures.

Again, had the levels been slightly higher than normal, sure, but the highest levels ever recorded by MLB? Something's not right with this entire situation if you ask me. Have you seen Braun? He's not exactly Mark McGuire. Braun isn't Roger Clemens. He's known around baseball as one of the genuine 'good guys'.

I think folks are so tainted by the 90s that they aren't even willing to consider that Braun might actually be innocent. That's sad.

Disclosure, I'm a Cubs fan, so Braun getting suspending actually would have been a plus for me...

[Cerebral_DownTime]

I agree.

The proper procedures for the testing process were not followed.

It doesn't mean he's innocent, it just means you can't prove he's guilty.

Plausible deniability.

[pup]

1 time. In all of the tests taken has a sample been held in somebody's fridge for the weekend.

Thousands of tests run every season. And one sample which showed no signs of being tampered with (not like it is in a bottle with a screw on lid) other than the fact it was stored at some dude's house, and it just happens to be the sample that showed the newly named MVP had failed a test.

Drug testing in general is a one sample test. Because you are testing what the person has in their system at that moment. Allow them time to take another? How does that prove what was in his system at the time of the original test one way or the other?

To think the guy that stored the sample in his fridge was able to alter that specimen because he doesn't like Braun (or whatever his reason) and have that not be detected by the test lab is more far fetched than the entire cover up once the premise that these guys are tested and everyone that fails is suspended has been tainted.

Wouldn't the test lab inspect for tampering prior to testing?

When you've got a couple of hundred specimen jars in front of you, how careful are you going to be to see if they'd been 'tampered' with. And these samples are probably in lids with screw tops. What kind of containers do you think they're in? Stainless steel with locks?

Very careful. My thought of is the samples are sealed in a way that it would be apparent it was opened after being closed. Tape sealed and initialed on across? There are certainly ways to make sure something is not tampered with. A protocol that I would hope these labs (and the MLBPA) are enforcing.

And had this been your drug test that you failed without taking anything, and you found out that some mope had your sample for 48h in his home fridge, what would you do? Same thing Braun did.

I would appeal if I had taken something. What are they going to do, convict you twice?

To think the guy that stored the sample in his fridge was able to alter that specimen because he doesn't like Braun (or whatever his reason) and have that not be detected by the test lab is more far fetched than the entire cover up once the premise that these guys are tested and everyone that fails is suspended has been tainted.

But your theory that he paid the guy to fuck up the protocol is logical?

No. What I am saying is there was no 48 hours between sample taking and submission to test lab.

And for Braun, a guy with basically unlimited money, to actually take steroids without having the right masking agents, makes even less sense, especially with today's testing procedures.

Then why does anyone get caught?

Again, had the levels been slightly higher than normal, sure, but the highest levels ever recorded by MLB? Something's not right with this entire situation if you ask me. Have you seen Braun? He's not exactly Mark McGuire. Braun isn't Roger Clemens. He's known around baseball as one of the genuine 'good guys'.

Not everyone that takes a banned substance become the incredible hulk. Shit, the most important technique to taking these things right now would be to do it to not bulk up, but getting stronger, recover faster. And being known as a good guy helps him in this regard.

I think folks are so tainted by the 90s that they aren't even willing to consider that Braun might actually be innocent. That's sad.

I am tainted by society. Current. 90's. 50's. Whenever. I do not believe he is innocent. I do not believe the sport is cleaned up to where only some stiffs and old men are getting caught. Sorry.

Disclosure, I'm a Cubs fan, so Braun getting suspending actually would have been a plus for me...