So what are you expecting this year? Greater than or less than 36%? And when you say the Cavs are going to "suck", how many wins does that equate to?
About 14. A winning percentage right around 22%. Yes, we won 9 out of our last 25, but we also won 0 out of 26 for a stretch there too. And as I said, our point differential was an awful -9.
I think we have some better pieces, but I don't think we are much better as a team, especially because we should be selling Sessions, AV, and Jamo (and anyone else really) ASAP.
Well, that last statement is the key. It's premature to talk about how the Cavs will do this year when we don't know who they're getting rid of, if anyone.
I checked the boxscores and the Cavs' record was 6-9 in games Baron Davis played in. When Davis started, the Cavs were 4-5, with the wins coming over Toronto (22-60), Detroit (30-52), Charlotte (34-48), and Miami (58-24). Like Peeker said, adding a competent veteran point guard made a huge difference.
At least we agree that the Cavs will be better than last year, but again, how does a 13-69 team get the #1 and #4 overall picks in the draft and not improve? You think their winning percentage will go from 16% to 22%. I'm more optimistic because I'm starting with the team that finished the season. If the Cavs amnesty Davis and trade Jamo or AV, then my whole argument goes down the tubes. And I think they should amnesty Davis and trade Jamo.
I can't prove it, but I think getting rid of Mo Williams helped a lot. Worst defensive guard I've seen in a long time. Replacing Mo with Davis improved the team tremendously. They immediately went from a team that couldn't beat anybody, literally, to a team that won 40% of their games.
The 0-26 team (with Mo, Moon, Hickson and no BD) and the 6-9 team (with Davis) were two very different teams. My assumption is that we're starting with the 6-9 team (40% wins) and adding Varajao, Jamison, Irving, and Thompson, then replacing Hickson with Casspi. That doesn't add up to a 22% win team, at least not to my thinking.
By the way, last year the Cavs played 36% of their games against the West. This year it drops to 27%. The Cavs were 4-26 against the West last year (.133) and 15-33 against the East (.288). They won more than twice as often against Eastern Conference teams. Playing fewer games against the West will help them a little this year.