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Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

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Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby swerb » Tue Nov 15, 2011 9:38 am

http://www.theclevelandfan.com/clevelan ... for-lumber

Outstanding. An accurate assessment with realistic options. While Hoynsie continues researching Cuddyer and Willingham.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Tue Nov 15, 2011 1:10 pm

I was advocating Marlon Byrd at the trade deadline last year, which didn't go over well. I think he'd be a nice player to have and certainly would be an upgrade over what we've got right now.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby cozmeesah » Tue Nov 15, 2011 4:20 pm

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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby Prosecutor » Thu Nov 17, 2011 1:29 pm

No thanks on Byrd. He's a 34-year-old center fielder who drove in only 35 runs in 446 AB's mostly from the 5th and 6th spots in the order. He was basically a platoon player who hit .219 against left-handed pitching in only 105 AB's.

He hit an impressive .314 with the bases empty but fell off dramatically to .198 with RISP and an abysmal 2-for-17 with the bases loaded. No wonder he only had 35 RBI.

I can see why the Cubs would be willing to pick up some of his salary to move him. He made $5.5 million last year. They're on the hook for $6.5 million this year.

He might be a minor upgrade over Crowe or Carerra, but how much of that are we paying and what prospect are we giving up? And you would still need Crowe to play center against left-handed pitching.

I have an issue with Paul comparing Byrd to Upton by combining their stats for the last three years. Upton is an ascending player who is 27 years old, if I'm not mistaken, and is coming off his best season. Byrd is 34 and at the age when players are in decline. Averaging his last three years in order to make it appear he's a better offensive player than Upton is a misinterpretation of stats in my opinion.

I like Gaby Sanchez better with his .269/.346/.440/.786 line, which is a modest (75 OPS points) improvement over LaPorta at first base. Still, not very exciting numbers for a 28-year-old first baseman. He does hit left-handed pitching very well, however. That trade is predicated on the Marlins signing Prince Fielder and I'll believe that when I see it.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Thu Nov 17, 2011 2:35 pm

I don't necessarily agree that Upton is an ascending player. It all depends on what you really want and what you're willing to pay for it. Byrd is infinitely more 'acquirable', I think. Upton maybe a better player, not but by an order of magnitude. Better than Byrd, sure, but at what cost? Either guy is only going to be around for a year, most likely.

If you look at his numbers the last 5 seasons, they are fairly consistent. He's hitting for a bit more power and walking a bit more, but his OBP and SLG are pretty much flat. He had two great years in '07 and '08, but hasn't gotten back to that level since. He's a guy with a ton of talent that will always entice a team into thinking he'll get back to that high level. The last 3 years, he's a .250 hitter with some power, can take a walk, strikes out a TON and plays good defense. For what Tampa's gonna want (citing his 'upside'), I'm not sure the Tribe can get in on that. He's also one year away from free agency.

I'm just not a big 'upside' guy. When someone tries to convince you that a player has upside, he's typically under-performing for his talent level, and they're trying to convince you that he'll be better for you. Maybe there's truth to that, but usually there isn't.

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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby Prosecutor » Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:24 pm

Looking at Upton's first five years as an every day player, you're right, he's not exactly ascending. His best season was his first, when he hit .300/.894 with 24 HRs and 82 RBI in about 550 plate appearances. Then he declined dramatically over the next two years before starting back up again. The last three years his BA has been consistent (.237-.243) so it appears that's what you're going to get.

Since he's one year from free agency and would be expensive to acquire, I don't see him as a logical target for the Indians. But I don't see Byrd as the answer in center field. Or Fukudome. Or Crowe or Carerra. I'm thinking they're going to have to move Brantley to center, at least for next year. It might be a lot easier to get a left fielder.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby leadpipe » Thu Nov 17, 2011 7:45 pm

They HAVE, H-A-V-E, have to continue to get the ciphers out of the line-up.

If it means, in some people's opinions you are going to "overpay" for a Marlon Byrd type, so be it. There's a major difference between mortaging your future to keep, or get a big time, big money free agent, and paying maybe a little more than you should for a guy like Byrd.

Marlon Byrd, warts and all, is a major league hitter.

The reason the Tribe sucked balls in 2010 is they gave 1,000 at bats to Trevor Crowe, Luis Valbuena and Andy Marte. Yes, 1,000 at bats to guys that are clearly NOT major league hitters. Or, in layman's terms, guys that absolutely blow.

Last year it got a bit better, but you still gave 300 to Carerra, who many times was in a line-up that contained Marson and Hanahan. And they got a bit lucky that for the first time in forever Shelly Duncan didn't suck - but I wouldn't be thrilled givin' that guy 400 next year.

Real simple way for them to improve is to get some major league players in the spots where there haven't been any.

Then go from there.

And there's a name for teams that are afraid of marginal investment gambles and afraid of moving marginal prospects.

Losers.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby googleeph2 » Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:03 pm

leadpipe wrote:They HAVE, H-A-V-E, have to continue to get the ciphers out of the line-up.

If it means, in some people's opinions you are going to "overpay" for a Marlon Byrd type, so be it. There's a major difference between mortaging your future to keep, or get a big time, big money free agent, and paying maybe a little more than you should for a guy like Byrd.

Marlon Byrd, warts and all, is a major league hitter.

The reason the Tribe sucked balls in 2010 is they gave 1,000 at bats to Trevor Crowe, Luis Valbuena and Andy Marte. Yes, 1,000 at bats to guys that are clearly NOT major league hitters. Or, in layman's terms, guys that absolutely blow.

Last year it got a bit better, but you still gave 300 to Carerra, who many times was in a line-up that contained Marson and Hanahan. And they got a bit lucky that for the first time in forever Shelly Duncan didn't suck - but I wouldn't be thrilled givin' that guy 400 next year.

Real simple way for them to improve is to get some major league players in the spots where there haven't been any.

Then go from there.

And there's a name for teams that are afraid of marginal investment gambles and afraid of moving marginal prospects.

Losers.


Well said! And if they have such fear, that should have been acknowledged or discarded before trading the two prospects for Ubaldo. Not putting MLB players on the field would indicate a change in direction at this point, wouldn't it?

They have fans' attention right now as well, and acquiring a guy like Byrd (a veteran, somewhat of a known entity) would keep momentum going in the way of ticket sales. A little hot stove excitement for once.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby gotribe31 » Thu Nov 17, 2011 8:23 pm

Prosecutor wrote:No thanks on Byrd. He's a 34-year-old center fielder who drove in only 35 runs in 446 AB's mostly from the 5th and 6th spots in the order. He was basically a platoon player who hit .219 against left-handed pitching in only 105 AB's.

He hit an impressive .314 with the bases empty but fell off dramatically to .198 with RISP and an abysmal 2-for-17 with the bases loaded. No wonder he only had 35 RBI.

I can see why the Cubs would be willing to pick up some of his salary to move him. He made $5.5 million last year. They're on the hook for $6.5 million this year.

He might be a minor upgrade over Crowe or Carerra, but how much of that are we paying and what prospect are we giving up? And you would still need Crowe to play center against left-handed pitching.

I have an issue with Paul comparing Byrd to Upton by combining their stats for the last three years. Upton is an ascending player who is 27 years old, if I'm not mistaken, and is coming off his best season. Byrd is 34 and at the age when players are in decline. Averaging his last three years in order to make it appear he's a better offensive player than Upton is a misinterpretation of stats in my opinion.

I like Gaby Sanchez better with his .269/.346/.440/.786 line, which is a modest (75 OPS points) improvement over LaPorta at first base. Still, not very exciting numbers for a 28-year-old first baseman. He does hit left-handed pitching very well, however. That trade is predicated on the Marlins signing Prince Fielder and I'll believe that when I see it.


Still using RBI's as part of your opinion of a player's performance, I see. (cache)
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby pup » Thu Nov 17, 2011 10:35 pm

As lead says, Marlon Byrd is a step up over just about every OF option in the organization.

But if anyone thinks acquiring Marlon Byrd is getting peeps to the box office, u b nutz.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Fri Nov 18, 2011 2:05 am

pup wrote:As lead says, Marlon Byrd is a step up over just about every OF option in the organization.

But if anyone thinks acquiring Marlon Byrd is getting peeps to the box office, u b nutz.



Speak for yourself, I already got my Marlon Byrd Jersey and opening day tickets. :dingle:
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby gotribe31 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:06 am

pup wrote:As lead says, Marlon Byrd is a step up over just about every OF option in the organization.

But if anyone thinks acquiring Marlon Byrd is getting peeps to the box office, u b nutz.


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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:07 am

Given that the Cubs are in the process of re-working their entire organization, I'd be willing to bet that someone like Byrd would be fairly cheap to acquire. We might have to give up more in order for the Cubs to eat a significant portion of his salary, but in general we wouldn't have to give up top talent in order to pick him up.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby pup » Fri Nov 18, 2011 11:28 am

gotribe31 wrote:
pup wrote:As lead says, Marlon Byrd is a step up over just about every OF option in the organization.

But if anyone thinks acquiring Marlon Byrd is getting peeps to the box office, u b nutz.


Winning puts asses in seats. Well, winning and players from the mid-90's.


A big FA signing puts more asses in the seats now. Winning gets those people coming back and brings more asses later.

Bailing water from a canoe with a hole in it and all, but if anyone doesn't think them signing Albert Pujols makes those ticket lines around X-mas time grow you are nuts. Marlon Byrd? A few extra that know the game will show up. Pujols, casual fan shows up in numbers.

Is it enough to make up for his salary? No. Unfortunately, the Indians operate like a Fortune 500. Profit wins.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby googleeph2 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 12:00 pm

Dnthateonthepronk wrote:
pup wrote:As lead says, Marlon Byrd is a step up over just about every OF option in the organization.

But if anyone thinks acquiring Marlon Byrd is getting peeps to the box office, u b nutz.



Speak for yourself, I already got my Marlon Byrd Jersey and opening day tickets. :dingle:


Well there you go.

Who wouldn't get excited about a player named after one of the Jackson 5?
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby Prosecutor » Fri Nov 18, 2011 12:00 pm

Byrd's OPS for the last four years:

2008 (age 31): .842
2009 (age 32): .808 (decline of 34 points)
2010 (age 33): .775 (decline of 33 points)
2011 (age 34): .719 (decline of 55 points)

Anybody want to make a prediction for 2012?

I get that we need a major league hitter. But is a 35-year-old center fielder who can't hit lefties, has no power, doesn't hit with RISP, and probably puts up an OPS of under .700 next year the guy we want? And how much of that $6.5 million he'll make will the Cubs pick up?

There's got to be a better option out there. My guess is that it will involve moving Brantley to center and picking up a left fielder. Although I'm still holding out hope for Upton, who is 27, plays great defense, hits for power, and had an OPS over 1.000 in September when the Rays were running down the choking Red Sox for the wild card spot.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Fri Nov 18, 2011 1:18 pm

We're going to need someone who can play an entire season, not just really well for one month. Take a look at the breakdown for each month of the season. June, July and August his OPS was under .700. Had it not been for a fantastic September, his numbers would have been career lows.

For the cost, I'll pass. Great talent, doesn't seem to care enough to take his game to the next level.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 1:41 pm

If Michael Brantley actually improves enough to one day BE Marlon Byrd we should consider ourselves fortunate.

And while I agree the Marlon Byrds of the world do zero for me, he is a better player than Brantley. That goes for last year, the year before that and he probably will be this year as well.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby pup » Fri Nov 18, 2011 2:11 pm

Didn't dude break his face last year? And then struggled when he came back early? We really going to destroy the dude for that?
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby Prosecutor » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:23 pm

pup wrote:Didn't dude break his face last year? And then struggled when he came back early? We really going to destroy the dude for that?


He broke the hamate bone in his wrist and was shut down on Aug. 29. This link says the hand was bothering him for several weeks before that and in fact he hit only .211 in August.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6903578/michael-brantley-cleveland-indians-season-wrist-injury

As of the end of July his line was .274/.329/.383/.712, as opposed to Byrd's .276/.324/.395/.719. They were virtually identical players offensively last year. The difference is that Brantley is 10 years younger and look at Byrd's trend line.

But it's not like we're talking about a Brantley for Byrd trade. The question Paul C. brought up is whether trading for Byrd might be the best solution to the Indians center field problem. If you like the idea of a 35-year-old Michael Brantley in center field then I guess he is. But looking at Byrd's age and trend line, I say it's quesionable whether his 2012 OPS ends up north of .700, and he certainly won't help balance out a lineup that is top heavy in left-handed hitters.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:28 pm

He was talking about Byrd's injury.

He was hit in the face by a pitch and missed a part of May and all of June. When he came back, he was wearing a modified helmet that protected his left cheek/eye.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:02 pm

And I'm not talking about trading Brantley for Byrd, either. I'm saying Byrd was and is a better player.

I'm also saying the thought of them both in the same outfield makes me a bit nauseous but that it would actually be better than anything the Indians could run out there on their own, today.

Yuck.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby WiscTribeFan » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:09 pm

Free Trevor Crowe!

Maybe LaPorta can move back to LF.

Yuck. Just threw up in my mouth.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby peeker643 » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:15 pm

WiscTribeFan wrote:Free Trevor Crowe!

Maybe LaPorta can move back to LF.

Yuck. Just threw up in my mouth.


Still convinced end of LaPorta's development (be it as it was) was the hip injury. Ended his OF days and forced a guy trying to adjust at MLB level to do so with an injury that changed lower half of swing forever.

Not sure how much he used lower half in school and minors so maybe he was always doomed in that regard but NOT being able to use it makes it moot.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby leadpipe » Fri Nov 18, 2011 8:14 pm

The Indians outfield situation is so gross, people actually think Michael Brantley is a good player. Guys got 4th or 5th outfielder written all over him - until he walks in a room with Crowe, Carerra, fuko, and the rest of those rummies.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby bookelly » Fri Nov 18, 2011 10:50 pm

Yoanis Cespedes puts butts in the seats. But that's a long shot and we all know it.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby pup » Sat Nov 19, 2011 10:55 am

bookelly wrote:Yoanis Cespedes puts butts in the seats. But that's a long shot and we all know it.


No he doesn't.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby Erie Warrior » Sat Nov 19, 2011 10:58 am

bookelly wrote:Yoanis Cespedes puts butts in the seats. But that's a long shot and we all know it.


Who?
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby leadpipe » Sat Nov 19, 2011 2:08 pm

pup wrote:
bookelly wrote:Yoanis Cespedes puts butts in the seats. But that's a long shot and we all know it.


No he doesn't.


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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby Dnthateonthepronk » Sat Nov 19, 2011 3:25 pm

pup wrote:
bookelly wrote:Yoanis Cespedes puts butts in the seats. But that's a long shot and we all know it.


No he doesn't.



He puts Cuban butts in the seats
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby Adverb Harry » Sat Nov 19, 2011 9:31 pm

Kaz Tadano puts butts about a foot and a half in the air.
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby bookelly » Sun Nov 20, 2011 2:05 am

But...haven't you guys seen the video?
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Re: Great piece by Paulie - Indians pos player pursuit

Unread postby peeker643 » Tue Nov 22, 2011 1:22 pm

Joe Nathan just signed with the Rangers and Neftali Feliz goes into the rotation.

There goes my Chris Perez for Mitch Moreland dream.
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