2011 Off Season Outlook--MLBTradeRumors.com

[WiscTribeFan]

Discuss

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/o ... dians.html

The Indians face major decisions in center field and in the rotation this offseason. GM Chris Antonetti begins the winter with the expectation that payroll will rise following a promising 2011 season.

Guaranteed Contracts

Travis Hafner, DH: $15.75MM through 2012
Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: $5.2MM through 2012

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Justin Masterson, SP: $3.6MM
Jack Hannahan, UT IF: $1.3MM
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $4.8MM
Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $4.3MM
Chris Perez, RP: $4.2MM
Joe Smith, RP: $1.6MM
Rafael Perez, RP: $1.9MM

Contract Options

Grady Sizemore, OF: $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout (no Elias ranking)
Fausto Carmona, SP: $7MM club option (would be arbitration eligible if Indians decline option)

Free Agents

Kosuke Fukudome (unranked OF), Jim Thome (unranked DH), Chad Durbin (unranked RP)

The Indians' offseason begins with a pair of difficult decisions for GM Chris Antonetti. Cleveland has options for Grady Sizemore and Fausto Carmona, two of the club's longest tenured players. Neither one is guaranteed to return in 2012 and the Indians' decisions regarding the pair will shape the rest of their offseason.

The Indians have a $7MM option for Carmona, who would be arbitration eligible if the team declines the option. MLBTR projects Carmona would earn about $7.8MM if the Indians declined his option and went to arbitration with him, so it's the option or nothing in 2012.

Carmona doesn't strike many opponents out -- Indians starters as a group placed 27th in MLB in strikeout rate -- but there were some positives in 2011. He pitched 188 2/3 innings and though his 5.25 ERA wasn't pretty, his xFIP of 4.17 and SIERA of 4.18 suggest his ugly ERA may have been due to bad luck. Carmona had a 54.8% ground ball rate in 2011, so he could have trade value to teams in homer-friendly parks, like the Rockies, Rangers and Yankees, even if the Indians pick up his option and guarantee him a $7MM salary. I expect Cleveland to pick the option up and given how difficult it is to obtain starting pitching, that decision would be justifiable.

Regardless of how the Indians handle Carmona's option, they'll probably pursue starting pitching depth. Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Masterson and Josh Tomlin will lead the rotation, possibly with Carmona. David Huff, Zach McAllister and Jeanmar Gomez provide manager Manny Acta with internal alternatives and Antonetti will likely add an arm or two from outside of the organization.

Sizemore's knees have limited him to 104 total games in the past two seasons, so exercising his $9MM club option ($500K buyout) would be a bet on Sizemore's health. Why would a small-market team even consider such a gamble? From 2005-08, Sizemore combined power, speed and on-base skills as one of baseball's premier center fielders. When he's healthy, he's a force, but the Indians don't seem confortable paying him $9MM in 2012.

Sizemore offers more offensive upside than free agent alternatives such as Rick Ankiel, Cody Ross and former Indians center fielder Coco Crisp. The Indians already have 24-year-old Michael Brantley, who posted a .702 OPS in 114 games and spent considerable time in center field. Rookie Ezequiel Carrera played 55 games in center, but had an OPS of just .613. If the Indians decide to pursue experience and certainty in center field and are unimpressed by the available free agents, they could turn to trade targets such as Angel Pagan and B.J. Upton.

The Indians may pursue corner outfielders, regardless of how they handle Sizemore's option. Right-handed hitting outfielders such as Josh Willingham and Michael Cuddyer could appeal to the team. Sizemore, Brantley, Carrera and Shin-Soo Choo all bat from the left side and the Indians lineup also includes three other left-handed hitting regulars, so they may pursue right-handed hitting outfielders if possible. One such player, Matt Murton, hit .311/.339/.423 in Japan in 2011 and could be available this offseason. He just turned 30 and boasts a .788 OPS as a Major Leaguer, so Antonetti may decide to offer an incentive-based deal should Murton become available.

Jim Thome intends to play in 2012 and though he made a triumphant return to Cleveland in 2011, a new deal seems unlikely, since the Indians already have a left-handed hitting designated hitter in Travis Hafner.

First base presents more uncertainty for the Indians. Carlos Santana is a regular contributor, but Matt LaPorta hasn't produced enough at the plate in two-plus seasons and Shelley Duncan probably isn't an everyday first baseman. The Indians could pursue free agents such as Casey Kotchman if they're losing confidence in LaPorta as their primary option at first.

Second baseman Jason Kipnis and third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall have the minor league pedigree LaPorta boasted a few seasons ago. They'll enter the 2012 season with a chance to build on the successes of their rookie seasons. Meanwhile, 24-year-old Cord Phelps is another homegrown option on the infield and the versatile Jack Hannahan is also under team control.

The Indians have just $17.7MM in guaranteed contracts for 2012, but that figure will rise to the $40MM range if the club retains all of its arbitration eligible players, as expected. If the Indians pick up the options for Sizemore and Carmona, payroll would be over $55MM before accounting for minimum salary players or potential acquisitions. Antonetti says he expects the Indians to exceed this year's $49MM payroll and accommodating both Sizemore and Carmona without a substantial increase would be difficult.

Joe Smith, Rafael Perez, Tony Sipp and Vinnie Pestano will return to a bullpen that will mostly remain intact. Closer Chris Perez struggled down the stretch after making his first All-Star team, so he'll look to pitch as effectively as he did in 2010. Nick Hagadone, the 25-year-old southpaw who came to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez deal, posted a 3.35 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 at Triple-A before making nine appearances as a September callup. He could be ready for a season-long stint in the Indians' 2012 bullpen and while there's no guarantee he'll replicate his minor league success, he deserves a shot.

Once the option decisions have been finalized and free agency has slowed down, Antonetti could explore extensions for Santana and Asdrubal Cabrera. Cabrera is closer to free agency than Santana, so the Indians would likely prioritize an extension for their shortstop. It's unlikely agent Scott Boras would encourage an extension for Choo, whose bargaining power dipped after a frustrating season.

Antonetti's first offseason as the Indians' GM led to an extended playoff run. They'll enter the 2012 season with elevated expectations and, if the winter goes according to plan, depth in the rotation and answers in the outfield.

[skatingtripods]

MLBTR is pretty dead on with most of this. I don't think Hannahan makes that much. I think the Indians will try and lock Asdrubal up to a 4 or 5 year deal in the vicinity of 25-30M.

Fairly steep price for Chris Perez seeing as how his velo was down a little and his K numbers were down quite a bit. They'll at least re-sign him, but may look for suitors.

Cuddyer would be a nice add. I could deal with Willingham in LF. But, they can't afford to overpay for a guy like Willingham. He has to come at fair market value. Kotchman had too pricey of a season, IMO, to get him. The 1B market is really thin, especially with second-tier options having inflated salaries once Prince and Pujols are off the market.

Santana's a huge problem for this team. Offensive potential, defensive liability. Can't catch more than 60 games for this rotation. Can catch Tomlin and the 5th starter. Have to use Marson for Carmona, Jimenez, and Masterson.

I wonder if Jason Donald can work enough in LF to get him in a 4-5 games per week spot in LF. Duncan as a 1B/LF/DH option off the bench.

Big offseason for the Tribe. Might have to get creative as the prospect cupboard is bare for trades and the FA market is not filled with talent.

[WiscTribeFan]

Given our salary projections, it really makes no sense to pick up Grady's option.

Perez earned that money, but I'm more concerned with his drop in peripherals going forward into next year. That K/9 and K/BB are very scary for a closer. He had a rough second half.

I like Jason Donald, as Peek once said, in a totally irrational way. I just think he's a ball-player. He could easily step into the 3B slot if Chisenhall doesn't look solid in ST. As a super-sub, I'd love to see him play 4-5/week as well, especially if he can play a little OF. I'd like to see him cut down on the K's a bit, but in limited duty this year, he played fairly well. Wonder what could have been had the injury bug not struck him in ST.

[NH Tribe Fan]

Ultimately, this option won't be about the money, it will be about the medical report. A questionable medical report in terms of being fully ready @ 100% is a no-brainer. IF the medical staff truly believe he will be 100% healthy and it's not lip service to the fan base this decision is difficult. Antonetti will be second guessed on this all next year regardless of whether or not they pick up the option.

I am really mixed on Sizemore. He obviously isn't worth 9million. However, Terry Pluto and the others that call for us to decline the option have failed to point out we have no options in CF besides Sizemore. There is little in the FA market and Carrera and his 600 OPS won't cut it. Trade targets? The price for BJ Upton will be high.

We've gone all in with the Ubaldo trade, declining this option (which may be the sound/safe financial thing to do) will not help us contend next year as we have too many pieces to fill w/o Sizemore (CF, Corner OF, 1b, and SP?) to contend next year.If they decline it, they need to have a trade target (with discussions already worked out) because winging it and hoping to land someone is highly unlikely.

[Cleveland Matt]

Out of all the FA that will be available I think Willingham is the player I want the Indians to get. Maybe if Willingham can play a little 1B which he only has 2 starts in his career there. I hate the 1B options available other then Pena but he will come at too high of a price I think. A combination of Willingham, Santana, Laporta, and Duncan I think can work at 1B.

I also agree and would like to see Donald get some more at bats and if he can play the OF it would really help his value to this team.

I think they could let Sizemore walk and use that money for Willingham and to resign Fukudome. They could rotate Fukudome and Brantley in CF and with Willingham in LF.If the Yankees decline the option on Swisher I would love to have him over Willingham.

I do not like Chris Perez as our closer, I just think he does not have the stuff for the role but lets face it he is our best option at the position.

I also would love the Indians to steal away Mark Buhrle from the White Sox. He is the type of guy the Indians need on this staff. I vet who knows what it takes to win and can eat up a ton of innings throughout the year to save your bullpen.

[bookelly]

Beltran would be a nice addition. Paulie C mentioned this as a possibility.

[southernflyer]

If we can't get Willingham for LF, I would start looking at guys who are young, hit right-handed and have had some success in limited exposure. Two guys I would look at are Allen Craig of the Cards and Chris Heisey of the Reds. Both are 27, were decent prospects and would be splitting time or backing up in their current situations.

For 1B, I would look at Lars Anderson of the Red Sox. If his wrist injuries are behind him, take a chance with Ryan Strieby of the Tigers. We need to get more power out of that position.

[Erie Warrior]

Travis Hafner, DH: $15.75MM through 2012

[Cleveland Matt]

Time for Dolan to step up and spend some of this snowdays money. I mean they easliy pull in $300 million alone with snowdays right? Go get Fielder and CC and win a world series already

[ChoccoIndians]

300 Million on the snow days, not being in the USA, does the snowdays draw that sought of a crowd? Must be a massive couple of months, and smart move by the club using Progressive for something during off season.

[googleeph2]

I think the $300 mil was a little tongue-in-cheek.

[pup]

I think the $300 mil was a little tongue-in-cheek.

Like $299.9 million tongues in cheeks.

[bookelly]

http://www.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2010/12/23/indians-losing-money-on-snow-days

[ChoccoIndians]

http://www.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2010/12/23/indians-losing-money-on-snow-days

That seems a little more realistic.

I must admit, its alot of work for not much return, lets just hope that it is good advertising and turns into extra numbers next season.

[Adverb Harry]

Didn't want to start a new thread, so I figured this one makes the most sense.

What about this guy?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-passan_yoenis_cespedes_cuban_defected_110611

To sum it up, Yoenis Cespedes is a very intriguing, super-hyped Cuban prospect who is supposedly 26 years old (we know how that goes, though!). This season, he hit 33 home runs in 90 games, a new single-season league record. The video his agents put together is a bit odd, to say the least, but it looks like he's got legitimate talent, and Cuban baseball ain't exactly the California Penal League. I've been hearing about him quite a bit, and it sounds pretty official that he's coming to MLB. This could be the perfect aggressive, "outside-the-box" type of signing we were talking about a month or so back.

He's apparently angling for something along the lines of what fellow Cuban Aroldis Chapman got from the Reds, and they aren't exactly a big market team that can afford to blow money on whatever whimsical fancy comes their way. Basically, he'd be affordable to any team in baseball, which is also the drawback...every team could potentially be in play for him. So far, the Marlins, Nationals, Phillies, and, of course, the Yank-Me's are most tied to him, but at his rumored price, I would think there's a lot more interest than that.

Yes, he's never played a game in the majors before, and that's a drawback, but he's pretty well regarded by scouts. A right-handed hitting, impact outfielder who is still in his mid-twenties (supposedly!) and would cost half of the going rate for an established, older player? Heck yeah. Plus, we wouldn't use any our trade chips to acquire him, leaving them available for a pretty good first baseman, as well.

Negative side: Let's say the Tribe signs him and he only becomes a "decent" player. Well, he'd still have a pretty affordable contract that wouldn't cripple the franchise and could be unloaded on another team without much hassle if need be.

This could be the type of move we're looking for...it would get a potential star in here and really fire up the fan base, too. Just saying it's worth a gamble.

[skatingtripods]

We can't win bidding wars on Cuban players. Just won't happen.

[Adverb Harry]

I agree that it probably won't...just wish it could!

Just thinking that Antonetti has shown himself to be a bit more aggressive in terms of moves. This could be right up his alley. No way we win in a bidding war in terms of total numbers and years, but I'd love to at least get competitive for this guy's services and see where it takes us.

[bookelly]

Let's see...RH power bat with the tool set to play outstanding CF? At around $40 mil for 5 years (or less)? This guy would seem to solve many problems at once. High risk, high reward, not that much money. He's knocked around international pitchers before, he's MLB ready.


The Bankeeys are gonna blow their money on CJ Wilson, and Buerle. We have a shot at this guy.

[skatingtripods]

Supposedly the Indians are close to signing 17-year-old Venezuelan catcher Henry Lunar. They're cross-checking his identity and age. Saw that on Twitter yesterday, I think from Hoynes.

Also, Tribe has scouts checking out Cespedes. Along with about 80 other teams.

[Adverb Harry]

Indians interested in Japanese pitcher Shinobu Fukuhara:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/indians-interested-in-shinobu-fukuhara.html

There's probably a good Kaz Tadano joke we can make from this. Unfortunately, the best one I can come up with is that Tadano was really excited to play with this guy until he learned his last name ended with an A, not a D.

[skatingtripods]

The Masahide Kobayashi experiment worked out well. I'm sure this will too.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

Maybe they just noticed the Fuku part if his name and figured the last Fuku they acquired worked out well so why not this one.






***Disclaimer****

Not serious

[bookelly]

The Masahide Kobayashi experiment worked out well. I'm sure this will too.

[Adverb Harry]

Jamey Carroll is supposedly VERY close to signing with a mystery team. According to the reports, the Tigers, Blue Jays, Rockies, Dodgers, and (surprise surprise) Indians are speculated as potential suitors, though local beat writers in LA and Colorado say their teams are not involved, and Morosi of Fox Sports says the Tigers are also no longer in the mix. That narrows the speculated field substantially, while simultaneously also raising Peeker's hopes.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/carroll-nearing-multiyear-deal-with-unknown-team.html

I'd say we're set if we get Carroll. He would fill every hole this team has with his adorableness alone.

[peeker643]

Jamey Carroll is supposedly VERY close to signing with a mystery team. According to the reports, the Tigers, Blue Jays, Rockies, Dodgers, and (surprise surprise) Indians are speculated as potential suitors, though local beat writers in LA and Colorado say their teams are not involved, and Morosi of Fox Sports says the Tigers are also no longer in the mix. That narrows the speculated field substantially, while simultaneously also raising Peeker's hopes.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/carroll-nearing-multiyear-deal-with-unknown-team.html

I'd say we're set if we get Carroll. He would fill every hole this team has with his adorableness alone.

He signed with the Twins....

Tease.

[Damage]

There's probably a good Kaz Tadano joke we can make from this. Unfortunately, the best one I can come up with is that Tadano was really excited to play with this guy until he learned his last name ended with an A, not a D.

Lock it down - this thread is over

[Am I Here Again?]

M's GM avoids Prince Fielder question

Latest rumor I heard up here on WEEI was that Seattle is interested in Prince Fielder. But wouldn't Fielder want to go to a good team??? And from what I remember hearing he's a bit of a hothead, right? So Prince+Wedgie could make for some interesting stories...

[fundamentals]

The Royals signed Jonathan Broxton, not exactly earth-shattering news but that should mean a more than solid eighth/ninth combo with him and Soria. Now, for the pitchers for the other seven innings for them and most other teams in need of starters.

[skatingtripods]

The Royals signed Jonathan Broxton, not exactly earth-shattering news but that should mean a more than solid eighth/ninth combo with him and Soria. Now, for the pitchers for the other seven innings for them and most other teams in need of starters.

Aaron Crow being able to move to the starting rotation is like a quality free agent signing for them.

They're a scary, scary team for the next few years. Not the doormat that they used to be.

[LakeErieWarriors]

M's GM avoids Prince Fielder question

Latest rumor I heard up here on WEEI was that Seattle is interested in Prince Fielder. But wouldn't Fielder want to go to a good team??? And from what I remember hearing he's a bit of a hothead, right? So Prince+Wedgie could make for some interesting stories...

Good team + Large market IMO. There isn't enough room in Seattle for that guys ego. If he just wanted to be on a good team, he'd stay with Milwaukee and show some loyalty.

[googleeph2]

With the system rigged for the 'haves' as it is, part of me would like to see some sort of partnership between some of the 'have nots', where eg. an AL team and an NL team would agree to aid each other's separate windows.

Say Cleveland is ready to contend. Eg. a Colorado is rebuilding. CO agrees to send an Ubaldo to Cleveland for prospects- but some sort of reciprocal agreement would mandate that after x # of years, the tables are turned and it's Cleveland's turn to covet some of CO's prospects. Maybe they could share some draft picks, jointly controlling them in the minors somehow?

Not well thought-thru, and prolly goes against the antitrust exemption?

But could at least some economies of scale be doable?

[fundamentals]

Fresh off inking Reyes away from the Mets, the Miami Marlins are at it again, going after Phat Albert, yikes:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/73225 ... ources-say

[Jumbo]

Fresh off inking Reyes away from the Mets, the Miami Marlins are at it again, going after Phat Albert, yikes:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/73225 ... ources-say

Who knew? All you have to do is change your name and *poof* a "small market" team becomes a "large market" team.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

Fresh off inking Reyes away from the Mets, the Miami Marlins are at it again, going after Phat Albert, yikes:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/73225 ... ources-say

Who knew? All you have to do is change your name and *poof* a "small market" team becomes a "large market" team.

I demand an overhaul of our entire uniform and City Name Switch RIGHT NOW.

As of right now we are the OHIO INDIANS with ridiculous neon red and blue uniforms.


Hello Prince Fielder

[RedDawg53]

Anyone think Fielder or Pujols will have a "Decision" tv special?

[LakeErieWarriors]

Fielder would, he's a punk. Albert- no. Guy is pretty humble IMO.

[Prosecutor]

I demand an overhaul of our entire uniform and City Name Switch RIGHT NOW.

May I suggest "Lake Erie Warriors"?

[TonyIPI]

Fresh off inking Reyes away from the Mets, the Miami Marlins are at it again, going after Phat Albert, yikes:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/73225 ... ources-say

Who knew? All you have to do is change your name and *poof* a "small market" team becomes a "large market" team.

Along with a brand new stadium that is going to put revenues (at least for the next 2-3 years) through the roof.

[Triple-S]

I have no other place to post this, but the new Miami Marlins hat looks like that one god awful fictional team from the Back to the Future pt. 2.

Also, I will always hate the Marlins.

[Pressrunnr]

Wouldn't it be ironic if the Tribe was this guy's only option?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/c ... -thin.html
\

[Jumbo]

Via everyone on twitter: Pujols to the Angels.

Let the Indians trade offers for Mark Trumbo begin!

[e0y2e3]

It's just $250MM over ten years, no big deal guys.

[motherscratcher]

It's just $250MM over ten years, no big deal guys.

The Indians should have signed him for 2 years. Fuckin cheap ass Dolan.

[e0y2e3]

Just saw this, the Angels were bought for $180MM in 2003.

[fundamentals]

Just saw this too...........CJ Wilson to the Angels for lots of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$.