The Case for a Rebuild

[rigs]

Despite the quick start, the Tribe will most likely end up with the 8th or 9th best record in the AL (out of 14 teams). They have two years to contend basically. Are they really that close? Option 1 would be to spend a lot, lot of cash this off season. If they aren't willing to do that, it might be time for a rebuild...again.

I probably wouldn't do this int the winter, but if June rolls around and we are 8-10 out, they kind of have to. You just have to have someone else make the deals other than the guy who traded Lee. Deal Choo, Cabrera, Ubaldo, Perez, etc. Build around Santana, Chiz, Kipnis, Brantley and possibly Masterson if you can lock him up.

[motherscratcher]

Despite the quick start, the Tribe will most likely end up with the 8th or 9th best record in the AL (out of 14 teams). They have two years to contend basically. Are they really that close? Option 1 would be to spend a lot, lot of cash this off season. If they aren't willing to do that, it might be time for a rebuild...again.

I probably wouldn't do this int the winter, but if June rolls around and we are 8-10 out, they kind of have to. You just have to have someone else make the deals other than the guy who traded Lee. Deal Choo, Cabrera, Ubaldo, Perez, etc. Build around Santana, Chiz, Kipnis, Brantley and possibly Masterson if you can lock him up.

You think they should rebuild without even taking theirnshot?

You do realize that Shapiro is not the GM any longer, right?

And he must not have been too bad if you want to rebuild around a bunch of guys that he brought in.

[WiscTribeFan]

Despite the quick start, the Tribe will most likely end up with the 8th or 9th best record in the AL (out of 14 teams). They have two years to contend basically. Are they really that close? Option 1 would be to spend a lot, lot of cash this off season. If they aren't willing to do that, it might be time for a rebuild...again.

I probably wouldn't do this int the winter, but if June rolls around and we are 8-10 out, they kind of have to. You just have to have someone else make the deals other than the guy who traded Lee. Deal Choo, Cabrera, Ubaldo, Perez, etc. Build around Santana, Chiz, Kipnis, Brantley and possibly Masterson if you can lock him up.

How many games back were the Tigers in June?

They'd have never dealt White and Pomeranz if they intended on a complete rebuild starting next year.

[rigs]

MS,
If you read what I wrote, I said June of next year. Can't wait much longer than that. Asdrubal, Ubaldo, and Choo would still have 1.5 years left.

Secondly, Shapiro has very much to say about what goes on still.

Finally, Kipnis and Chiz were drafted (Grant). Masterson and Brantley were two acquisitions from three perennial all-stars. You and I could have landed two regulars from trading CC, Lee, and Martinez.

[swerb]

Despite the quick start, the Tribe will most likely end up with the 8th or 9th best record in the AL (out of 14 teams). They have two years to contend basically. Are they really that close? Option 1 would be to spend a lot, lot of cash this off season. If they aren't willing to do that, it might be time for a rebuild...again.

I probably wouldn't do this int the winter, but if June rolls around and we are 8-10 out, they kind of have to. You just have to have someone else make the deals other than the guy who traded Lee. Deal Choo, Cabrera, Ubaldo, Perez, etc. Build around Santana, Chiz, Kipnis, Brantley and possibly Masterson if you can lock him up.

You know you're my boy Blue, but you're insane.

Can't you just enjoy what we have for right now? We haven't even gotten to the heart of this rebuild, and you're talking about the next one?

Regardless of how you manipulate the stats to make it seem like we're the worst team in the league, the fact is, this team has a window the next two years if they can supplement the offense via FA or trades. We might not be good enough, but we've pretty much got this thing where they wanted it to be at this stage. Good pitching and some young homegrown offensive players to build around. This off-season is obviously vital. The Dolans have said they will spend when they have a chance to contend. FA may not yield many realistic difference making options, but I do believe they will give Antonetti the freedom to go after it a little this winter.

Enjoy it. Ya miser.

[Spin]

I want to see what this team can do if they're able to stay healthy before blowing it up. This was an awful year for injuries. We were first place before that all started.

They pretty much replaced Sizemore just in case, and replaced Pronk (though I doubt JT will be back unless he thinks this team is a lock).

If they could clear those two train wrecks off the payroll they could make some noise in free agency. IF...I know, I know, wish in one hand...

Anyway i'd like to see the team in one piece before I push the eject button. What do we have to lose? A 64th season?

[Bigfist]

I hope JT is not back next year...clearly he is only a shell of what he used to be and cannot play the field. Hafner...well, does anyone really expect him to stay healthy next season? In the case of Sizemore, I have made the case earlier to pick up his option..only because we have no ready replacements at AAA or AA.
OTOH, if a replacement could be found in a trade or as a FA, then I think you let Sizemore go. I certainly do not expect him to stay healthy again either.

As others have said, this offseason is critical. As Wisconsin Tribe Fan said, the Indians would never have dealt Pomeranz, etc. if yet another rebuild was a consideration. I am not sure we are all that close to contending, but some key acquistions (to play the OF and 1B, and another durable starter) could get me to change my mind. The problem is that those postions will not be filled from our minor league system.

[motherscratcher]

MS,
If you read what I wrote, I said June of next year. Can't wait much longer than that. Asdrubal, Ubaldo, and Choo would still have 1.5 years left.

Secondly, Shapiro has very much to say about what goes on still.

Finally, Kipnis and Chiz were drafted (Grant). Masterson and Brantley were two acquisitions from three perennial all-stars. You and I could have landed two regulars from trading CC, Lee, and Martinez.

C'mon man, I read what you wrote and I understood what you wrote. But two months into a season where you pushed all of your chips into the center is not the time to fold no matter what you got on the flop. Everything they've done this season and previously points to the next 2 season as the window. You have to ride it out. You have to.

It may not work. Hell, I don't think it will. I just don't feel like we quite have the horses to pull this off in the next 2 seasons no matter what happens in free agency, and I hope like hell I'm wrong about that. But I'm not throwing in the towel in June if it isn't going our way. That's bananas. At some point you have to let it ride. YMMV.

Now, if the Goddamn plane crashes into the mountain and 2013 looks like a train wreck, I can see a scenario where you start the rebuild with what assets you have. But it better be pretty fuckin' bleak.

As far as the Shapiro stuff...it's pretty usual stuff around here. All the bad shit was Shap's fault. All the good stuff was because of someone else or not good enough. Ivy League Tongue. Yada Yada Yada.

[WiscTribeFan]

In the case of Sizemore, I have made the case earlier to pick up his option..only because we have no ready replacements at AAA or AA.
OTOH, if a replacement could be found in a trade or as a FA, then I think you let Sizemore go. I certainly do not expect him to stay healthy again either.

Maybe I've just grown tired of the lack of productivity and the frequency of his injuries not to firmly believe that for less than $8.5M we can find someone to hit .220 with some power and big strikeout numbers. He used to be able to take a walk, but no-one fears him enough not to pitch to him anymore.

My feeling is that they'll try to work out a 2 year deal with him for much less money, perhaps incentive laden. He can opt to hit the market, but I have a feeling that he'd only garner a similar one year type of a deal to show the league if he's got anything left. No-one's gonna give him a multi-year deal, not after the last three years of declining productivity and injury. I don't even think there'd be fan backlash at losing him.

I'd rather bring back Fukudome with that money.

[Spin]

I thought Fukedome was a replacement for Sizemore, until Choo fell apart too. But you're right, he only has this year on his contract.

I think he gives you more than a part time Sizemore does. We'll see how they play it.

[1Perry]

Ask me in the spring. They most certainly need to try and improve the team and go for it.

If we go into next year with this team intact, I imagine come trade deadline we will be dealing.

Odds are high IMO that either Pronk or Sizemore doesn't even start the season because of an injury. If something is done about filing the Pronk/Sizemore hole and Choo is Choo next

[rigs]

Why would we give Sizemore a two year deal if you believe he would only get a one year deal on the open market? Just the same as, why would we pick up his 8.5m option when he will only get a third of that elsewhere?

Why are we so eager to overpay this guy in any way? That money could be a huge reason why we are able to get a legit, middle of the order RH hitter.

[WiscTribeFan]

Why would we give Sizemore a two year deal if you believe he would only get a one year deal on the open market? Just the same as, why would we pick up his 8.5m option when he will only get a third of that elsewhere?

Why are we so eager to overpay this guy in any way? That money could be a huge reason why we are able to get a legit, middle of the order RH hitter.

I'd give him a two year (or one year with an option) heavily incentive laiden deal before completely cutting the cord. Base salary of a $1M or so with a ton of incentives on the off chance he rebounds. There is no way on earth I'd exercise that option.

If Antonetti is trying to prove he's not Shapiro, and the Jimenez deal was the first step, then he's got to have the balls to potentially walk away from both Sizemore and Carmona regardless of the sentiment or perceived potential for both of these guys. They are too expensive at their current output to keep. Carmona less so than Sizemore.

[bookelly]

I'm still failing to understand how Sizemore and a big $ bat are mutually exclusive. Even with both Hafner and Grady's option picked up (I think they try to renegotiate both btw) and all the Arby guys factored in (we get a nice discount on Choo), we're still only looking at $45 - $50 mil. Now, let's dream big, as I think the payroll next year could be set as high as $90 mil - league average. That leaves $40-45 mil for Fukadome/Willingham type ($6 mil), a starter a la Millwood ($5 mil), and a 1b ($29 -34 mil).

$29 - $34 million will get you into Fielder/Puljois range.

People will balk at the suggestion that Dolan will pay $90 mil. But as I said before, that number is right in line with league averages and is well below the Sux ($135) and Detroit ($105) and Minn ($115). Remember when the Rangers signed ARod for $25 mil per year and everyone thought they were crazy? Some guys looked back at the numbers and the Rangers made out huge in that deal. So there is precedent in signing a major star and raking in cash. With the Cavs rebuilding and maybe not even playing, the Browns...well, you know... the Tribe has a chance to really seize this market. I think a $90 mil payroll is a real possibility.

Throw in the towel and rebuild? Hell no...double down!

[swerb]

I think I need some of what my boy bookelly is smoking.

(I hope you're right.)

[WiscTribeFan]

I'm still failing to understand how Sizemore and a big $ bat are mutually exclusive. Even with both Hafner and Grady's option picked up (I think they try to renegotiate both btw) and all the Arby guys factored in (we get a nice discount on Choo), we're still only looking at $45 - $50 mil. Now, let's dream big, as I think the payroll next year could be set as high as $90 mil - league average. That leaves $40-45 mil for Fukadome/Willingham type ($6 mil), a starter a la Millwood ($5 mil), and a 1b ($29 -34 mil).

$29 - $34 million will get you into Fielder/Puljois range.

People will balk at the suggestion that Dolan will pay $90 mil. But as I said before, that number is right in line with league averages and is well below the Sux ($135) and Detroit ($105) and Minn ($115). Remember when the Rangers signed ARod for $25 mil per year and everyone thought they were crazy? Some guys looked back at the numbers and the Rangers made out huge in that deal. So there is precedent in signing a major star and raking in cash. With the Cavs rebuilding and maybe not even playing, the Browns...well, you know... the Tribe has a chance to really seize this market. I think a $90 mil payroll is a real possibility.

Throw in the towel and rebuild? Hell no...double down!

I posted this article this week.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/a ... dians.html

If you take Sizemore and Carmona's option (I'm assuming you meant Carmona, not Hafner who has a guaranteed contract) the payroll stands at around $56M not including players making the minimum, which would probably add several million more onto that number @$450K each. Also keep in mind that Choo's salary can only drop by no more than 15% I believe through arbitration. We won't be seeing a ton of savings there, if any at all. Arbitration isn't just about an individual year, it's a comparison of career stats and players of similar age and numbers. Choo will make what he made this year (~$4M) and probably get a raise from that despite having a poor year. He just won't get a monster raise which he would have been in line for had his career numbers continued to improve this year.

So your starting point is closer to $60M, assuming they bring Sizemore back. I truly hope they don't, not at what his option is worth.

That said, I don't see the Tribe hitting $90M, and comparing them to those three teams isn't necessarily relevant for differing reasons. Market size, owner cash and revenue stream due to a brand spanking new stadium, namely.

As for Fielder/Pujols, you'd have to pay an extra premium to get those guys to come to Cleveland. Chances are their agents would simply use Cleveland's offer to up the ante on a more desirable location. Forget signing either one of those guys, it ain't going to happen.

I do admire your enthusiasm, however.

[motherscratcher]

And again, it isn't the $25mil that Prince is going to get that would be the problem. It is the 7 years that he is going to get it that will be the problem.

That being said, it is going to be an interesting market for him. Seems like all of the teams that can afford him already have an expensive long term 1B. Not sure whats going to happen there, I just don't see the tribe as real players.

It really is looking like it's going tonbe a bit of a crappy year to have money to spend. Figures.

[Kingpin74]

Decline Sizemore, pick up Carmona's option then trade him for minor leaguers (or decline it if you prefer), and sign Prince Fielder for 5 years, $100M. They could make it work with current in-house options at the rest of the spots of need. You likely won't have to bid against any big money teams (Yanks, Red Sox, and Phils have expensive great players at first, Angels have a good young guy in Trumbo, Dodgers and Mets are broke, and the Cubs would be foolish to spend any free agent money on that crap roster). Plus you have Pujols overshadowing him on the market. By declining those options, the payroll wouldn't even have to go up much and you have another $13M coming off with Hafner next year. I know it sounds ridiculous to sign that big of a free agent to this cheap franchise. But if they're really serious about contending now, it's by far the best use of that money. Give me a blue chip guy to fill our glaring need and ask questions later.

[bac5665]

As for Fielder/Pujols, you'd have to pay an extra premium to get those guys to come to Cleveland. Chances are their agents would simply use Cleveland's offer to up the ante on a more desirable location. Forget signing either one of those guys, it ain't going to happen.

If that's true, and I agree that it probably is, then we should all just pack it in and go home, as should 2/3 of the other teams. Asking 20 owners to invest half a billion in teams that are admitted second class citizens is ridiculous. Except that I could never stop myself, I would recommend that we all stop supporting a system that's designed to treat us as lessor competitors.

If every team doesn't have a fair chance to go after any FA, the system is broken. Period.
/rant

I agree with Bookelly that we have to make a run at Pujols/Fielder. If we don't get a piece like that, I think we're done for the next few years anyway. The only other way I see us with a chance to win it all is if Sizemore, Hafner and Carmona all get healthy/figure it out. And I think we all know that that isn't happening. Without one or the other, we will be underdogs in any playoff series. I think we have to play it out and see, after the Jimenez trade, but I don't think we can be anything but a dark horse team without a home run FA signing.

Just my two cents.

[Kingpin74]

I'm still failing to understand how Sizemore and a big $ bat are mutually exclusive. Even with both Hafner and Grady's option picked up (I think they try to renegotiate both btw) and all the Arby guys factored in (we get a nice discount on Choo), we're still only looking at $45 - $50 mil. Now, let's dream big, as I think the payroll next year could be set as high as $90 mil - league average. That leaves $40-45 mil for Fukadome/Willingham type ($6 mil), a starter a la Millwood ($5 mil), and a 1b ($29 -34 mil).

$29 - $34 million will get you into Fielder/Puljois range.

People will balk at the suggestion that Dolan will pay $90 mil. But as I said before, that number is right in line with league averages and is well below the Sux ($135) and Detroit ($105) and Minn ($115). Remember when the Rangers signed ARod for $25 mil per year and everyone thought they were crazy? Some guys looked back at the numbers and the Rangers made out huge in that deal. So there is precedent in signing a major star and raking in cash. With the Cavs rebuilding and maybe not even playing, the Browns...well, you know... the Tribe has a chance to really seize this market. I think a $90 mil payroll is a real possibility.

Throw in the towel and rebuild? Hell no...double down!

I posted this article this week.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/a ... dians.html

If you take Sizemore and Carmona's option (I'm assuming you meant Carmona, not Hafner who has a guaranteed contract) the payroll stands at around $56M not including players making the minimum, which would probably add several million more onto that number @$450K each. Also keep in mind that Choo's salary can only drop by no more than 15% I believe through arbitration. We won't be seeing a ton of savings there, if any at all. Arbitration isn't just about an individual year, it's a comparison of career stats and players of similar age and numbers. Choo will make what he made this year (~$4M) and probably get a raise from that despite having a poor year. He just won't get a monster raise which he would have been in line for had his career numbers continued to improve this year.

So your starting point is closer to $60M, assuming they bring Sizemore back. I truly hope they don't, not at what his option is worth.

That said, I don't see the Tribe hitting $90M, and comparing them to those three teams isn't necessarily relevant for differing reasons. Market size, owner cash and revenue stream due to a brand spanking new stadium, namely.

As for Fielder/Pujols, you'd have to pay an extra premium to get those guys to come to Cleveland. Chances are their agents would simply use Cleveland's offer to up the ante on a more desirable location. Forget signing either one of those guys, it ain't going to happen.

I do admire your enthusiasm, however.

Whoops, didn't see this before posting mine. I still think we'd have a shot though if we were willing to pay the going rate. Soft market and it's not like he's signing on to spend November through April in Cleveland.

[swerb]

Even if the Dolan's wanted to, they couldn't go after one of those guys cause of the years. If they get hurt or start snorting coke and eating cheeseburgers like Shawn Kemp, the franchise is just totally screwed for half a decade.

This climate, seems like the Dolans have the financial capacity right now to fund a 50mm payroll when we suck and no one's going ... and maybe max out at 80-90mm if they are selling tickets and think they got a shot.

If you sign Prince Fielder for 7 years, 125 mill ... and he turns into Cecil Fielder .... and you're just done. That much of the payroll, committed to one person, would just cripple this franchise for years and years.

Which speaks to bac's point about the system being broken. Cause it is.

Baseball is such a great game. It's amazing they haven't been able to solve the financial part of it.

[Kingpin74]

Even if the Dolan's wanted to, they couldn't go after one of those guys cause of the years. If they get hurt or start snorting coke and eating cheeseburgers like Shawn Kemp, the franchise is just totally screwed for half a decade.

This climate, seems like the Dolans have the financial capacity right now to fund a 50mm payroll when we suck and no one's going ... and maybe max out at 80-90mm if they are selling tickets and think they got a shot.

If you sign Prince Fielder for 7 years, 125 mill ... and he turns into Cecil Fielder .... and you're just done. That much of the payroll, committed to one person, would just cripple this franchise for years and years.

Which speaks to bac's point about the system being broken. Cause it is.

Baseball is such a great game. It's amazing they haven't been able to solve the financial part of it.

If it would take 7 years for him to sign here, sure. But my point is that in this unique first baseman market with a lot of big money teams bowing out, 5 might get it done. And if so, I think that's definitely a risk worth taking.

[motherscratcher]

Even if the Dolan's wanted to, they couldn't go after one of those guys cause of the years. If they get hurt or start snorting coke and eating cheeseburgers like Shawn Kemp, the franchise is just totally screwed for half a decade.

This climate, seems like the Dolans have the financial capacity right now to fund a 50mm payroll when we suck and no one's going ... and maybe max out at 80-90mm if they are selling tickets and think they got a shot.

If you sign Prince Fielder for 7 years, 125 mill ... and he turns into Cecil Fielder .... and you're just done. That much of the payroll, committed to one person, would just cripple this franchise for years and years.

Which speaks to bac's point about the system being broken. Cause it is.

Baseball is such a great game. It's amazing they haven't been able to solve the financial part of it.

Tis. 7 years is just too long for this franchise to absorb. Look at the Twins deal with Mauer. They have to have some remorse over that, no? And it just started.

But, I wonder if Kingpin's 5yrs/$100 would get it done? Because I think if the dolans are serious they'd have to consider that. And, end of the day, that might be what Fielder would get due to a few different factors that have been mentioned here already.

Here's the rub...if the Fielder market ends up at 5/100, and the Indians are willing to pay that...I think the Brewers are willing to pay that too. and he ends up right back in Milwaukee.

I don't think for a second that Pujols ends up anywhere other than St Louis so hes not worth talking about.

[bac5665]

Even if the Dolan's wanted to, they couldn't go after one of those guys cause of the years. If they get hurt or start snorting coke and eating cheeseburgers like Shawn Kemp, the franchise is just totally screwed for half a decade.

This climate, seems like the Dolans have the financial capacity right now to fund a 50mm payroll when we suck and no one's going ... and maybe max out at 80-90mm if they are selling tickets and think they got a shot.

If you sign Prince Fielder for 7 years, 125 mill ... and he turns into Cecil Fielder .... and you're just done. That much of the payroll, committed to one person, would just cripple this franchise for years and years.

Which speaks to bac's point about the system being broken. Cause it is.

Baseball is such a great game. It's amazing they haven't been able to solve the financial part of it.

I understand that the years may cripple us. My fear is that by not signing one of them, we'll be just as crippled, from the perspective of winning a World Series. I lived through LeBron and grew up in the 90s; another 2-3 years of not winning is just about the same to me as 2-3 of horrible suckage. And then, if we don't win, we'll have 2-3 years of rebuild.

So we can go after Pujols/Fielder and have a chance of winning a World Series and a chance of 7 years of suckage.

Or we can not go after Pujols/Fielder and have 2-3 years of no World Series wins followed by 2-3 years of suckage.

I don't see how this isn't an easy choice, if I'm right. I'll concede that I may well be wrong about what we need to do in order to have a shot to win. But if I am right, then we may as well roll the dice and try to get Pujols/Fielder, cause the alternative is pretty bad.

[swerb]

5/100 will never get it done. Big Tex got 8/180 like three years ago. Adrian Gonzalez 7/154 Miggie The Fat Drunk Cabrera 8/152.

Market will start at 7/150 for Prince. Even more for King Albert.

We're out before the bidding starts.

[bookelly]

If the rumors are true that Dolan is looking to sell, then you have to factor that into any offseason activity. He could go with the sparse payroll and sell the team on the cheap and low; or he could bring in a major star, surround him with good young players, build a winner and sell when the team value is highest (like when he bought the team from Jacobs.) As I posted above, there is never gonna be a better opportunity to grab the lion share of this market than right now.

It makes good business sense to go after a marquee player. I agree the length of the contract will be an issue, but they've already demonstrated the willingness to take risks with the Ubaldo trade.

/ I do love Cali Swerb.

[motherscratcher]

I understand that the years may cripple us. My fear is that by not signing one of them, we'll be just as crippled, from the perspective of winning a World Series. I lived through LeBron and grew up in the 90s; another 2-3 years of not winning is just about the same to me as 2-3 of horrible suckage. And then, if we don't win, we'll have 2-3 years of rebuild.

So we can go after Pujols/Fielder and have a chance of winning a World Series and a chance of 7 years of suckage.

Or we can not go after Pujols/Fielder and have 2-3 years of no World Series wins followed by 2-3 years of suckage.

I don't see how this isn't an easy choice, if I'm right. I'll concede that I may well be wrong about what we need to do in order to have a shot to win. But if I am right, then we may as well roll the dice and try to get Pujols/Fielder, cause the alternative is pretty bad.

bac - you do realize that there is money involved in all of this too, right? It ain't just winning and losing when you're the guy writing the checks.

Profit and loss and all that happy horseshit.

[motherscratcher]

5/100 will never get it done. Big Tex got 8/180 like three years ago. Adrian Gonzalez 7/154 Miggie The Fat Drunk Cabrera 8/152.

Market will start at 7/150 for Prince. Even more for King Albert.

We're out before the bidding starts.

I agree that's where it should be. And it very well may end up there. Probably will. I just can't figure out who the hell is going to pay it.

[swerb]

5/100 will never get it done. Big Tex got 8/180 like three years ago. Adrian Gonzalez 7/154 Miggie The Fat Drunk Cabrera 8/152.

Market will start at 7/150 for Prince. Even more for King Albert.

We're out before the bidding starts.

I agree that's where it should be. And it very well may end up there. Probably will. I just can't figure out who the hell is going to pay it.

Is gonna be interesting with the Chowds and the Yanks seemingly out of it.

Angels, Rangers, Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers, Giants ... maybe a couple other off the radar teams.

[bac5665]

bac - you do realize that there is money involved in all of this too, right? It ain't just winning and losing when you're the guy writing the checks.

Profit and loss and all that happy horseshit.

No shit there's money involved. How about television money and ticket sales because we have Pujols? ESPN would shit itself ad we'd be on TV every other week.

Of course money matters. But you have to win to make money, at least in the long term, and any businessman who has enough money to buy a sports team is smart enough to plan for the long term. If we signed, somehow, Pujols or Fielder, we'd have a damn good shot at winning. We'd get national attention all year, get bigger ticket sales, etc. The Indians would be relevant nationally again. Tell me that that doesn't make money.

There are risks, of course there are. There are always risks. But if you want to grow the franchise, you have to take risks. Dolan can't be content to keep losing and to keep bleeding away fan support. We've had terrible attendance for a while now. We'll lose money on our own unless we make a splash and make some noise in October. If we're going all in, lets go ALL IN. The payoff is huge. And I don't think the risks are nearly as bad as the risks of holding pat and letting the franchise continue to fester. I think I know which risk hurts more in the long term.

[swerb]

There are risks, of course there are. There are always risks. But if you want to grow the franchise, you have to take risks. Dolan can't be content to keep losing and to keep bleeding away fan support. We've had terrible attendance for a while now. We'll lose money on our own unless we make a splash and make some noise in October. If we're going all in, lets go ALL IN. The payoff is huge. And I don't think the risks are nearly as bad as the risks of holding pat and letting the franchise continue to fester. I think I know which risk hurts more in the long term.

They're not losing money now. And while raising payroll 40mm could have a larger payoff if everything went their way ... they could start losing money if they sucked and were committed to contracts they couldn't get rid of.

I vibe I get from the Dolans is that they're willing to potentially make less money if they have a chance to win, but that they aren't willing to lose money on the team in any scenario. Due partly to the fact that the team immediately lost a lot of value right after they bought it. Like anyone that's bought a house in the last 7-8 years.

[motherscratcher]

bac - you do realize that there is money involved in all of this too, right? It ain't just winning and losing when you're the guy writing the checks.

Profit and loss and all that happy horseshit.

No shit there's money involved. How about television money and ticket sales because we have Pujols? ESPN would shit itself ad we'd be on TV every other week.

Of course money matters. But you have to win to make money, at least in the long term, and any businessman who has enough money to buy a sports team is smart enough to plan for the long term. If we signed, somehow, Pujols or Fielder, we'd have a damn good shot at winning. We'd get national attention all year, get bigger ticket sales, etc. The Indians would be relevant nationally again. Tell me that that doesn't make money.

There are risks, of course there are. There are always risks. But if you want to grow the franchise, you have to take risks. Dolan can't be content to keep losing and to keep bleeding away fan support. We've had terrible attendance for a while now. We'll lose money on our own unless we make a splash and make some noise in October. If we're going all in, lets go ALL IN. The payoff is huge. And I don't think the risks are nearly as bad as the risks of holding pat and letting the franchise continue to fester. I think I know which risk hurts more in the long term.

Well, I figured you did but I was just wondering because you didn't mention it. It seemed to be no big deal that there was a possibility (probably a strong possibility) that the Indians would be tied to 350lb fat-ass Prince Fielder in 2017-2019 at $25mil per while trying to rebuild.

I'm on record as saying that this is our window and we need to go all in and take our shot. But, there is a huge difference between taking a risk and being completely irresponsible and stupid.

[motherscratcher]

There are risks, of course there are. There are always risks. But if you want to grow the franchise, you have to take risks. Dolan can't be content to keep losing and to keep bleeding away fan support. We've had terrible attendance for a while now. We'll lose money on our own unless we make a splash and make some noise in October. If we're going all in, lets go ALL IN. The payoff is huge. And I don't think the risks are nearly as bad as the risks of holding pat and letting the franchise continue to fester. I think I know which risk hurts more in the long term.

They're not losing money now. And while raising payroll 40mm could have a larger payoff if everything went their way ... they could start losing money if they sucked and were committed to contracts they couldn't get rid of.

I vibe I get from the Dolans is that they're willing to potentially make less money if they have a chance to win, but that they aren't willing to lose money on the team in any scenario. Due partly to the fact that the team immediately lost a lot of value right after they bought it. Like anyone that's bought a house in the last 7-8 years.

Exactly Swerb. If they are willing to take a loss at all, it will be a small one and it will be for the short term. They aren't extending themselves 7 years down the road with huge contracts. Nor should they.

[swerb]

Jayson Stark says expect two unlikely teams to get in the bidding for Fielder and Pujols. The Marlins and the Dodgers.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rum ... -offseason

[bac5665]

Well, I figured you did but I was just wondering because you didn't mention it. It seemed to be no big deal that there was a possibility (probably a strong possibility) that the Indians would be tied to 350lb fat-ass Prince Fielder in 2017-2019 at $25mil per while trying to rebuild.

I'm on record as saying that this is our window and we need to go all in and take our shot. But, there is a huge difference between taking a risk and being completely irresponsible and stupid.

It's a question of the numbers; what's their profit margin, how much risk do they think each choice presents, etc. And I'll concede that I have little knowledge of what those numbers are.

It does look to me like the odds favor going after Pujols or Fielder, but if it really is too much risk, so be it. On the other hand, I don't see much chance of us winning in October without one of those guys. I guess we have to play it out, but man, it feels like we're stuck between a rock an a hard place; on the one side, we have a small chance to win, and on the other side, we have a much better chance to win, but a huge chance of crippling ourselves for a decade.

My gut tells me that I'll take the chance to win, but I do understand the money problem. Mostly it makes me hate Bud Selig.

[WiscTribeFan]

A potential case study on what happens when an elite player becomes merely a good player to the tune of $18M a year over the next three years.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... al01.shtml

You can argue that he's still an above average player based on his OPS+, but he went from 40/40 to 24/2 faster than you can say Diminishing Skills. The Cubs can't give this guy away at this point. Difference is, his salary isn't crippling them like $25-30M a year would cripple the Tribe in the latter years of that contract.

The rock and hard place analogy is a correct one. Damned if we do, damned if we don't. I still don't see either of those two choosing to play in Cleveland unless we pay significantly more than someone else. We'll end up being leverage in the bidding war, not a potential destination.

[motherscratcher]

Well, I figured you did but I was just wondering because you didn't mention it. It seemed to be no big deal that there was a possibility (probably a strong possibility) that the Indians would be tied to 350lb fat-ass Prince Fielder in 2017-2019 at $25mil per while trying to rebuild.

I'm on record as saying that this is our window and we need to go all in and take our shot. But, there is a huge difference between taking a risk and being completely irresponsible and stupid.

It's a question of the numbers; what's their profit margin, how much risk do they think each choice presents, etc. And I'll concede that I have little knowledge of what those numbers are.

It does look to me like the odds favor going after Pujols or Fielder, but if it really is too much risk, so be it. On the other hand, I don't see much chance of us winning in October without one of those guys. I guess we have to play it out, but man, it feels like we're stuck between a rock an a hard place; on the one side, we have a small chance to win, and on the other side, we have a much better chance to win, but a huge chance of crippling ourselves for a decade.

My gut tells me that I'll take the chance to win, but I do understand the money problem. Mostly it makes me hate Bud Selig.

I'm on board with all of that. It sucks, but that is the reality of our situation. Stuck between a rock and a hard place. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.

I just know it's easy for me to sit here and say who we should sign and what we should do when I'm not the guy writing the checks.

[motherscratcher]

A potential case study on what happens when an elite player becomes merely a good player to the tune of $18M a year over the next three years.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/playe ... al01.shtml

You can argue that he's still an above average player based on his OPS+, but he went from 40/40 to 24/2 faster than you can say Diminishing Skills. The Cubs can't give this guy away at this point. Difference is, his salary isn't crippling them like $25-30M a year would cripple the Tribe in the latter years of that contract.

The rock and hard place analogy is a correct one. Damned if we do, damned if we don't. I still don't see either of those two choosing to play in Cleveland unless we pay significantly more than someone else. We'll end up being leverage in the bidding war, not a potential destination.

Great minds think alike I guess.

[bookelly]

Jayson Stark says expect two unlikely teams to get in the bidding for Fielder and Pujols. The Marlins and the Dodgers.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/rum ... -offseason

There is no WAY that the Dodgers spend even a penny this offseason. McCourt is mowing his own lawn in Malibu he's so broke.

/He's even charging Larry David for the comp seats.

[1Perry]

I have to agree that at best the Dodgers are in the same boat as the Indians. Hoping that the regular big bidders aren't needing a Fielder or Pujols this year and the numbers will be down.

I will note what with a new stadium, I could see the Marlins making a real run at one of them.

That said, the point that even if the Indians could offer 5/100 and the idea that it's not completely out of the question that numbers could be that this year, Milwakee and St Louis would be all over those numbers.

One thing not mentioned is that Pujols and Fielder are all over every possibility. If they see a better market in a couple years maybe they take 2/42 to stay where they are at.

[pup]

Let's see.

Rebuild around pitch.
Have back to back Cy Young winners.
Trade both because they don't want to lock into long term deals.

Now we are going to give a 280 pound vegetarian 7 years? Stop it.

Payroll will increase. But it will be by giving the in house guys a bigger piece to lock them up and a couple of fringe bench guys. And we will hope the Chiz/Kipnis/Brantley growth continues. Santana hits higher than his weight. LaPorta light bulb happens. Choo and Hafner are healthy. Grady is less lady. Asdrubal gets in good enough shape to last a full season without sucking wind.

[bac5665]

And we will hope the Chiz/Kipnis/Brantley growth continues. Santana hits higher than his weight. LaPorta light bulb happens. Choo and Hafner are healthy. Grady is less lady. Asdrubal gets in good enough shape to last a full season without sucking wind.

How much of that do you think we need to be serious World Series contenders?

Now how much of that do you think will actually happen?

My answers are: "all" and "about half." Which is my point that we either lose games and break even or we win games and risk losing money. I know which I want, and you know which the Dolans will do.

[pup]

And we will hope the Chiz/Kipnis/Brantley growth continues. Santana hits higher than his weight. LaPorta light bulb happens. Choo and Hafner are healthy. Grady is less lady. Asdrubal gets in good enough shape to last a full season without sucking wind.

How much of that do you think we need to be serious World Series contenders?

Now how much of that do you think will actually happen?

My answers are: "all" and "about half." Which is my point that we either lose games and break even or we win games and risk losing money. I know which I want, and you know which the Dolans will do.

We need all of those plus some.

[bac5665]

We need all of those plus some.

So than why care? How do we get the to victory? Where's the hope?

Not ragging on you, just trying to make sense of this season and the future. It really is a depressing outlook for the Tribe if this is the best we can do.

[pup]

We need all of those plus some.

So than why care? How do we get the to victory? Where's the hope?

Not ragging on you, just trying to make sense of this season and the future. It really is a depressing outlook for the Tribe if this is the best we can do.

The hope is in getting lucky.

Even if all those things happen, you still need Ubaldo/Fausto/Tomlin to be very good All of them.

And this bullpen to repeat 2010.

Sorry.

[Am I Here Again?]

We need all of those plus some.

So than why care? How do we get the to victory? Where's the hope?

Not ragging on you, just trying to make sense of this season and the future. It really is a depressing outlook for the Tribe if this is the best we can do.

Oh you sweet, young thing you. You optimistic dreamer. You follow the Tribe for the love of the game. You want a winner? You have to find another team. I'm not being bitter about this (well, yeah, I am a bit) just being factual. I say this from experience. My Mom got me hooked on the Tribe when I was 8. In 1959. I've seen a couple of division pennant wins....but those flags would look rather paltry flying outside my house while surrounded by skankee and Red Sux fans.

Do I go into each season figuring we'll lose? Heck no! Each and every year I think it will be OUR Year. Most Octobers see me doing not much more for the season than putting out Halloween decorations (ghosts and skeletons...how appropriate). But each year at this time the voices start up again with "wait till next year". And I do. Completely in love with the game and my Tribe (well, mostly). And I wouldn't root for the skankees or Red Sux for anything...

[bac5665]

Oh, I'm stuck for life. There's no doubt about that. I love the game and there's something in me that just has to watch Cleveland teams, no matter what.

[Dnthateonthepronk]

\ And I wouldn't root for the skankees .

You had me at Skankees

rigs
Despite the quick start, the Tribe will most likely end up with the 8th or 9th best record in the AL (out of 14 teams). They have two years to contend basically. Are they really that close? Option 1 would be to spend a lot, lot of cash this off season. If they aren't willing to do that, it might be time for a rebuild...again.

Also we cant rebuild while we are in the midst of a rebuild, that just doesn't make sense. To "Rebuild" it would mean we would have already "Rebuilt" and then had it destroyed, which we have not. What you are asking for is an ADD ON.

[Adverb Harry]

They have to go all in the next two years, if that's really the most realistic window we have. Before this season, I don't think too many people saw the team as having such a small window; in fact, the only player people really worried about losing control of after 2013 was Choo. It's kind of strange to see this sense of urgency emerge, but I guess with Droobs' performance eruption this season (and a looming free agency for him as well), that argument does make some sense.

Personally, going into this season and even well through it, I was a lot more optimistic about our chances over the next four or five years with the promise of such guys as Kipnis, Chisenhall, Santana, and, yes, Pomeranz and White. I'm generally in the "prospect hoarder" camp, and I loathe the idea of trading top young players, but when they made the Ubaldo trade, they set themselves firmly on the path of trying to win the next two years. 'Cause when Ubaldo leaves and Masterson's time comes up, too, the pitching cupboard (for now, at least) looks to be pretty dry. By that time, White (assuming his finger hasn't fallen off) and definitely Pomeranz should be looking pretty good, and we'll be bitching about the ones that got away yet again while we once more struggle to patch together a rotation.

Of course, if Ubaldo pitches us to a World Series, that's a moot point. But that trade definitely shortened up the window. Yes, it dramatically improves our window (theoretically) in that time, but it slams it shut or, at the very least, narrows it considerably after 2013. That's why they have to be dramatic in their thinking now. I generally HATE trading prospects (it's just the way I am...not saying it's right, wrong, or whatever), but when they traded their top two pitching prospects, they started something that they can't be afraid to finish. They MUST acquire--at the very least--an impact bat, and if that means gutting the farm system, then that's what they have to do. Now that Kipnis and Chiz are here, there aren't any immediate reinforcements or different makers on the horizon (of course, that means it's harder to get a good player through trade, too). Certainly, there doesn't look to be anyone down on the farm(other than a couple bullpen arms, which happens to be our area of strength) who figures to even be a factor during this "window," so they should trade anything that's not nailed down in the minors and supplement this strategy with bold free agent signings. That's what gets something done.

Without a true middle of the order bat, this team goes nowhere again next year, and who knows...it's always possible we could have a mini-fire sale next July if we play like we did this year after May. No one wants to see that, and that means we can't attempt to patch this shaky lineup with the next Austin Kearns and Orlando Cabrera. They have to think bold, impact moves. Not only will it get the fans back, but it'll send a message to the team that they can do it. Look how they (briefly) got some fire back when Ubaldo was acquired. Now imagine that type of impact from Opening Day on.

Shapiro and Antonetti know all this. It just remains to be seen what they can do about it.

PS. As long as the moves they make don't involve trading Kipnis.

[swerb]

What Harry said. Great post. You nailed it.