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Cleveland Browns & The NFL

Browns big favorites week one

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Browns big favorites week one

Unread postby swerb » Tue Sep 06, 2011 8:33 pm

-7 .... very close to moving to -7.5

Over/under a paltry 35.5.

Vegas saying Browns win this one 21-14.
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Re: Browns big favorites week one

Unread postby DrPoove » Tue Sep 06, 2011 8:48 pm

swerb wrote:-7 .... very close to moving to -7.5

Over/under a paltry 35.5.

Vegas saying Browns win this one 21-14.

I believe that teams that lost 10+ games the previous year and are underdogs in Week 1 the following year cover 60% of the time. Per Chad Millman of ESPN.com I believe.

If there ever was a chance to start a season the right way, 2011 is set up for it.

Thank God we don't have a lockout and a shitload of injuries...
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Re: Browns big favorites week one

Unread postby bookelly » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:23 am

That line is higher than I am. I like our offense, but our D looks Swiss cheese to me. The O/U is pretty tempting...only 5 td's? hmmmm.
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Re: Browns big favorites week one

Unread postby noles1 » Wed Sep 07, 2011 1:16 pm

Big picture I got the O/U on total wins at 6 this year.

-140 is what it's paying but felt 6 was at least good for a push so I jumped on it.

The -7 number is a bit too high for me this weekend though. Hoping for an Indy win and a nice big number come the 18th in Indy then.
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Re: Browns big favorites week one

Unread postby Prosecutor » Wed Sep 07, 2011 3:37 pm

Hard to handicap the Browns or the Bengals coming out of the gate. Major changes for both teams. New systems in Cleveland, new QB and receivers in Cincy.

With a rookie QB playing in his first career game and a rookie starting WR in A.J. Green, the Bengals will most likely try to establish the run with Benson, especially considering the weakness the Browns showed against the run in preseason. If Gocong can't play it will exacerbate the problem. The Browns need to stack up against the run and force Dalton to throw. Ward should play up like an extra linebacker.

The Browns kept their running game under wraps in the preseason but I look for a heavy dose of Hillis in Week 1. However, I expect a balanced offense with McCoy distributing the ball to half a dozen or more receivers with high percentage throws. The Browns could be vulnerable on the offensive line with either a rookie starting at LG (Pinkston) or a journeyman who just got cut (Hicks). And Pashos is wearing a walking boot. Lauvao is making his first start at RG. So lots of power runs and quick release passes.

The Browns had the better record last year and unlike the Bengals, they didn't lose their starting QB and two most productive receivers, or their top cornerback (Jonathan Joseph). It's hard to find a reason to pick the Bengals to win this one.

Jauron needs to bring a lot of different looks on defense to confuse Dalton, assuming they can get the Bengals into some passing downs. Benson won't break any long runs but he's a grinder who can move the chains, especially against our defensive ends.

The Bengals haven't seen much of the Browns new WCO so hopefully they'll have trouble defending it. The Bengals offense will obviously be different (simplified?) with Dalton rather than Carson Palmer at the controls, so that should work to the Browns advantage.
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Re: Browns big favorites week one

Unread postby noles1 » Thu Sep 08, 2011 2:05 pm

Just seemed to lay out a nice analysis that spelled out a simple conclusion.

Take the points.

As a Browns fan, if they blow it up, you won't even feel bad about it.

Cleveland 17
Cincy 13
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Re: Browns big favorites week one

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Thu Sep 08, 2011 8:35 pm

Browns- 23

Bungles- 6

Colt 174 yds, 1 TD (Evan Moore) 1 INT (tipped pass), 28 yds rushing.

Hillis 104 yds rushing, 1 TD (9 yard run) .

Is the GB/NO game on TV?
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Re: Browns big favorites week one

Unread postby hiko » Fri Sep 09, 2011 11:35 am

Wish I could be as optimistic as Peter King:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/peter_king/09/06/week.1.picks/index.html?eref=sihp&sct=hp_t11_a4

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Browns 33, Bengals 13

Cool game. The battle of diminutive big-time Texas quarterbacks: Andy Dalton (Horned Frogs) at Colt McCoy (Longhorns). In a year, maybe, Dalton will be able to put 33 points on the board against Cleveland, but not this week -- not playing his first game in the NFL, in the Dawg Pound, running a new offense he's still adjusting to. McCoy, on the other hand, is on his way to a very good season.
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