Irrational Exuberance (scUM edition)

[furls]

Stealing one of my favorite phrases from Alan Greenspan. Am I the only one enjoying the irrational excitement of scUM fans this year? They love them some Wolverines, they are as optimistic as Browns fans talking about the 2012 draft and their 1st rounder that will finally get them to .500.

Its great. They landed a couple of good Ohio State grade recruits (Strobel and Kalis) in a heads up recruiting battle with tOSU, got a new head coach and now they are convinced that all the ills of the DickRod Era are gone for good. Man it is amazing.

Unfortunately for scUM Kalis and Strobel will not don the ugly helmets for another year and this year's rendition of the skunkbears is basically the same lousy set of players from last year with a new system, one that does not match their skill sets.

Rodriguez finally got his people in place, just as he was getting his pink slip, and I think we all saw that his system will get him Big East championships, but it didn't fly in the B1G. So now Hoke has DickRod's undersized offense (complete with inaccurate, noodle armed running back masquerading as a QB) and 3-3-5 other side of the ball (I hesitate to call anyone that gave up 458 pts, 36ppg, a defense). This team is just not good. As I look down their schedule for 2011 I cannot see what they are so excited about.

vs. WMU =win
vs. ND =loss
Vs. EMU =win
vs. SDSU =win
vs. Minny =win
@NW =loss
@MSU =loss
vs. Purdue =win
@ Iowa =loss
@ Illinois =loss
vs. Nebraska=loss
vs. tOSU =loss

I see scUM at 5-7 this year, although I could see them losing to Purdue or SDSU or beating Illinois or NW. So I would say best case, 7-5... worst case 3-9.

[Kingpin74]

Stealing one of my favorite phrases from Alan Greenspan. Am I the only one enjoying the irrational excitement of scUM fans this year? They love them some Wolverines, they are as optimistic as Browns fans talking about the 2012 draft and their 1st rounder that will finally get them to .500.

Its great. They landed a couple of good Ohio State grade recruits (Strobel and Kalis) in a heads up recruiting battle with tOSU, got a new head coach and now they are convinced that all the ills of the DickRod Era are gone for good. Man it is amazing.

Unfortunately for scUM Kalis and Strobel will not don the ugly helmets for another year and this year's rendition of the skunkbears is basically the same lousy set of players from last year with a new system, one that does not match their skill sets.

Rodriguez finally got his people in place, just as he was getting his pink slip, and I think we all saw that his system will get him Big East championships, but it didn't fly in the B1G. So now Hoke has DickRod's undersized offense (complete with inaccurate, noodle armed running back masquerading as a QB) and 3-3-5 other side of the ball (I hesitate to call anyone that gave up 458 pts, 36ppg, a defense). This team is just not good. As I look down their schedule for 2011 I cannot see what they are so excited about.

vs. WMU =win
vs. ND =loss
Vs. EMU =win
vs. SDSU =win
vs. Minny =win
@NW =loss
@MSU =loss
vs. Purdue =win
@ Iowa =loss
@ Illinois =loss
vs. Nebraska=loss
vs. tOSU =loss

I see scUM at 5-7 this year, although I could see them losing to Purdue or SDSU or beating Illinois or NW. So I would say best case, 7-5... worst case 3-9.

It's not so much excitement for this year as happiness/relief that things are headed in the right direction. Every fanbase has crazies but I think a lot of Michigan fans realize that the next two years will be a slog (particularly next year on a brutal schedule). But they wont collapse like Rich Rod's teams did, those were some historically bad defenses and Greg Mattison should at least coax an adequate performance out of them. I'm thinking 15 pedestrian combined wins in '11 and '12. But given the recruiting, I think our optimism for 2013 and beyond is pretty well founded.

[furls]

You are one of the few that is realistic that scUM is at least 2 years (2013 at the earliest) away from relevance. scUM had a nice upswing this year, largely due to the issues at tOSU and hope in Hoke. In order for scUM to maintain that momentum they need to win, and they need continued uncertainty at tOSU. Personally, I think Hoke is scUMs last, best hope for relevance. 3 more years of bad performance + a subsequent rebuild will take scUM out forever, they cannot afford for Hoke to fail.

I am not sure that scUM will be able to keep that recruiting momentum. I have heard all about Hoke's sales pitch, "We are Michigan and we are back," and "Ohio (State University) is going to get sanctioned into the stone age." Now that it looks like tOSU might get out of this without even a scholarship reduction (let alone a post season ban) and the team is locked and reloaded, I don't think he will be able to cherry pick Ohio. His only card left, is coaching instability @ tOSU, but that should be resolved by 1 Jan (one way or another).

It will be interesting to see whether the recruiting momentum is still there following a 5-7 season while tOSU is back in the Rose/Fiesta/Cap One bowl.

[skatingtripods]

I took 'em under 7 wins at +110. I figure they push or go 6-6 or worse. They're not an 8 win team with Denard dropping back and throwing like Hoke wants him to.

[furls]

I took 'em under 7 wins at +110. I figure they push or go 6-6 or worse. They're not an 8 win team with Denard dropping back and throwing like Hoke wants him to.

Fact. I love scUM under 7 and tOSU over 9.

[danwismar]

I can't see how they're better than the 4th best team in their division of the Big Ten...after MSU, Neb, and Iowa. They might be as good as Iowa, but Iowa has a softer schedule in-conference.

Mattison means their defense will be better-coached, but he can't do a talent transplant, like Furls said. If they somehow squeak by Notre Dame, they could be 5-0 before they play 4 of the next 5 on the road...then finish at Nebraska and at OSU. Only Big Ten road wins last year were Purdue and Indiana.

[furls]

I think they could be worse than NW this year too... so that would make them 5th out of 6.