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2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Sun Aug 21, 2011 3:27 pm

So last year's defense was pretty damn good although there were not a lot of tackles for loss. The Bucks did not gamble much kept everything in front and probably had more tackles in the 1-2 yard gain range than anyone else. This year's D.... Better? Bear with me.

Who is missing and who replaces them:

1. Cam Heyward. 3.5 year starter for the Bucks, never really got as much credit as he deserved. Did not make a lot of tackles, but did take on doubles regularly and let his teammates make plays. Replaced by John Hankins. Overall, I am going to say that this is really a push. Hankins is not as versatile, but will line up some at SSDE (at 335lbs) some. While he is not as versatile, he is better in the middle. Hankins is immovable, but is still quick enough that OSU will use him a lot as the 3 tech. DT. He gets great push, and is a guy that will be playing on Sundays as early as 2013; he is good enough to leave after his JR year.

2. Dex Larimore: Solid long time contributor and 2 year starter, big Dex was a solid contributor (ate up a lot of blockers), but did not make a lot of plays. He will be replaced by Garret Goebel. The two players are basically a push, they are both champion wrestlers and play 1/0 tech with great leverage.

3. Brian Rolle: Rolle was a playmaker and leader at MLB, but I am not sure that he was really big enough to get the job done in all occasions. I keep thinking back to him getting trucked into the endzone by Massoli in the Rose Bowl and how our LBs and DL were dominated in the first half against Wisco last year. He will be replaced by Etienne Sabino who is bigger and faster, but does not seem to have as good of a handle on the defense and does not have Rolle's nose for the ball. I think Sabino makes us better against the run, but I am not sure that he is truly an upgrade.

4. Ross Homan: Replaced by Andrew Sweat. This is an upgrade. Sweat is bigger and faster and I think plays better in space. He has a nose for the ball and I am betting he is first team all B1G this year.

5. Jermale Hines: Replaced by Tyler Moeller. OSU spends most of their time in a 4-2-5 with the "Star" as the nickelback. Hines was a good player but Moeller is an upgrade. He was by far OSU's best defensive player through the first 4 games last year. If he can stay healthy, he will change games. If he does not, then Christian Bryant will step in and he is also an upgrade.

6. Chimdi Chekwa: Replaced by Travis Howard. Howard made some big plays last year in limited action and I think has higher upside than Chekwa. Howard has first round talent and is having an "out of this world off season." All reviews from camp/practice indicate Howard will be the best OSU CB since Jenkins (Thorpe winner). As good as Chekwa was, Howard is an upgrade.

7. Devon Torrence: Replaced by Brad Roby. I was never a Torrence fan. He was good, not great. Roby has exceptional ball skills. He is not the athlete that Howard is, but he may be more fluid. His backup, Dominick Clarke is a better athlete, but does not have Roby's technique. Roby has been tearing it up in camp, and I think that continues into the season. This is a big upgrade.

So in short, I think the DL is a push, but it will have a different feel this year. Last year the DL just kind of held the line, with the occasional big play. This years line will be much more attacking. John Simon is unblockable as a full time SSDE, and that is a significant change from last year when he spent most of the season as the 3 Tech. Hankins (replacing Simon at the 3) with Goebel (replacing Larimore) really provide added beef in the middle, but don't underestimate Big Hanks ability to penetrate.

The LBs will be solid, and unremarkable, just the way OSU likes it. The secondary will be as good as we have seen since the Bucks featured Winfield, Plummer and Clements. The corners/safeties will allow this defense to attack in a way that we havent seen since 2005.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby danwismar » Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:08 pm

^^^^ Should be a front page column.

A couple comments...

Hankins will be living in opponents' backfields this year, disrupting run plays and pass plays. Certain teams will have absolutely no answer for him (and for Simon) and he will terrorize them for four quarters. Our fairly good 1st string offensive line couldn't really handle him yesterday.

I predict the safety play for OSU will be better than it has been in recent memory. OJ and CJ look great this summer... and a healthy Corey Brown and Christian Bryant make this a very deep and talented group....(also Jamie Wood and two promising freshmen in Cash and Tanner.)

Agree completely that overall the defense will be as good or better than last year...DL...deeper and better overall.....DB's better and deeper....LB's...a push.

About "keeping everything in front of them"...I think it's an amazing stat, and one that exemplifies what Heacock's defensive strategy is all about...Last year, the OSU defense gave up just five pass completions of more than 30 yards (the longest was about 45 yds, IIRC)...and four of those were in blowout wins over Eastern Michigan and Minnesota. They just didn't give up big plays, period. (except on kick returns...damnit)
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby FUDU » Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:14 pm

That's a bold statement Furls b/c the 2005 D was very very good, and I don't think enough recognition to AJ Hawk, as a/the big reason why, is being given here. We don't have anything close to an AJ Hawk on this D right now.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby danwismar » Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:28 pm

FUDU wrote:We don't have anything close to an AJ Hawk on this D right now.


I'll just say watch closely, and I think you'll be pleasantly surprised with what you see from Sweat and Klein. Sweat has moved from the strong to the weak side this year, which frees him up to do what he does best...pursue and tackle...and he looks great there. And Klein will inflict some pain on people in the middle. Stay tuned.

Just heard Sabino has his arm in a sling at Media Day festivities this afternoon. Not supposed to be serious, but we'll see.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:34 pm

FUDU wrote:That's a bold statement Furls b/c the 2005 D was very very good, and I don't think enough recognition to AJ Hawk, as a/the big reason why, is being given here. We don't have anything close to an AJ Hawk on this D right now.


Few teams do.

That was arguably the best LB core to take the field for OSU.

The skill surrounding Hawk allowed him to be that good, it wasn't AJ and scrubs, it was AJ, Carp, and Schlegel.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby FUDU » Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:38 pm

I agree it was surely a little of everything CDT, but I think AJ was so good it allowed the DC to gamble a little bit more with everyone else b/c he knew AJ would always be able to make a play.

I hope the next Hawk emerges in the first few games I really do.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Sun Aug 21, 2011 4:46 pm

From what I read around here from our recruiting gurus, we have an embarrassment of riches at LB.

Maybe Sweat or Klein will be that guy.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:26 pm

I'm officially 110% over Tressel's cheating and just ready for the damn season to start. Found myself looking at the calendar three times yesterday to see how far away September 3rd is.

Thanks for the posts this weekend Furls and Dan. Good stuff for sure.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:47 pm

Don't misunderstand what I was writing. I don't think we have LBs like the 2005 team here right now, but I think this team will be able to attack like the 2005 team. The '05 LBs were ridiculous, all three were drafted w/in the first 3 rounds (hawk, carpenter, Schlegel). We obviously don't have that right now, but what we do have is a DLine that will make plays, occupy blockers and apply pressure from 3 of the four spots (don't see much pressure coming from Goebel, not really his job).

Hankins will be a wrecking ball in the middle, he is like a grenade going off in the middle of the OLine. He will not necessarily get a lot of sacks or make a lot of tackles, that is not really a DT's job, he will just disrupt every play from the middle of the line while taking on a Guard head up. Opposing teams will HAVE to double him and that will open up the gap for the MLB/Safety. He splits doubles and applies pressure.

Pressure from the DL sets an internal clock for every play at about 3 seconds and Roby & Howard plus improved safety play = a defense that can take much more risks.

Personally, I think Moeller is the big beneficiary as the Bucks love bringing him to the line and letting him L/U just outside the SSDE and blitz from the edge. He has the rush skills as a former LB (something most safeties dont have) to beat a block and shed hands.

Every year, I am high on the D, this year I am more optimistic than any other in recent memory and it starts with Big Hank and Simon up front. Only thing I wish is that we had a Gholston/Kudla style WDE that could make plays in the backfield. I know lots like Nathan Williams, but I have been very disapointed with his play on the edge. I think he is much better as a 3-4 OLB than as a 4-3 DE. Since OSU plays that 4-2-5, with Williams it is really more of a 3.5-2.5-5. Williams is the best OLB LEO we have had lately (Carpenter, Kudla, Gholston, Gibson), but he is the weakest pass rusher of the 5. Gholston was frustrating at times, but if he turned it on (scUM game a couple years ago) he could single handedly take over a game.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:50 pm

You know, the Buckeyes just barely missed on a kid named Sharif Floyd in 2010 (same class as Hankins) and Floyd was the much higher ranked of the two. Floyd started games last year for Florida as a true freshman. Had the Buckeyes landed both of them, holy shit. Floyd is the real deal as well. Supposedly they led for Floyd by a lot (rumored silent verbal) before Urban had a religious vision/dream (no shit) about Floyd in FL.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Sun Aug 21, 2011 5:53 pm

I'll never forget the urban vision followed by the retirement.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby danwismar » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:07 pm

Yeah...somehow Urban forgot to tell Floyd about the part in the dream where he quits his job. Lesson: kids are gullible as hell.

BTW, word is that Sabino broke a bone in his left hand yesterday...had surgery on it today, and they say he will be ready for the opener with a cast of some kind on it.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Sun Aug 21, 2011 6:09 pm

Cerebral_DownTime wrote:From what I read around here from our recruiting gurus, we have an embarrassment of riches at LB.

Maybe Sweat or Klein will be that guy.



The embarassment is not as embarassing as it once was. LB attrition has been brutal lately.

-McVey (likely done for his career, with rumors of yet another shoulder injury).
-Bell transferred/suspended/kicked off the team
-Whiting suspended for game one.

The embarrassment now is in the young guys.
-Shazier has been super impressive and if he had about 10more lbs on him, he could be pushing for a starting spot this year.
-Grant, the countries #2 recruit in the 2011 class, is as advertised but is largely being outshined by Shazier.
-Conner Crowell is recovering from an injury and will redshirt this year. He should be decent, but I don't think he will be a meaningful contributor (barring injury until Shazier and Grant are playing on Sundays).

Next year's LB starters are pretty much set: Sabino, Shazier and Grant. Josh Perry is another guy to keep an eye on, but word on the street is that Josh may end up at DE. He has hit some type of late adolescence growth spurt and has grown 2-3" since committing to OSU last year and is now 6'4-6'5 and 240ish. I am very excited about Perry and I think he may be the next big thing at LEO.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby JCoz » Mon Aug 22, 2011 11:08 am

Well I think the big difference between what I think and you do furls is the opinion of the secondary. I need to see it to believe that Roby, Johnson, and Barnett are going to be as good as you are writing about here. If they are that certainly changes the dynamics of the defense.

I agree that we should have improvement on the Dline. Williams has been a dissapointment so far however, and we have little behind him. I don't think people are going to run on this defense but I'm not seeing a whole lot of sacks from the Dline rushing 4. That would be where the secondary comes in. That and bringing sweat and/or Moeller off the edge.

Still need to see something from Sabino before I believe it as well. Klein was ahead of him last I saw, and Furls I have a hard time seeing starting LBers sans Klien in 2012. It would be nice to see Shazier be a breakout player at SAM, we haven't had a good SAM since Carpenter.

Sweat was awful there last season in limited action. He is a liabilty at SAM and an all big ten caliber Will. Moeller I thought was the best player on the defense last season when he was playing, and that was with one arm. Looking forward to seeing him, really hoping for a relatively heathy season for him.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:22 pm

JCoz wrote:Well I think the big difference between what I think and you do furls is the opinion of the secondary. I need to see it to believe that Roby, Johnson, and Barnett are going to be as good as you are writing about here. If they are that certainly changes the dynamics of the defense.

I agree that we should have improvement on the Dline. Williams has been a dissapointment so far however, and we have little behind him. I don't think people are going to run on this defense but I'm not seeing a whole lot of sacks from the Dline rushing 4. That would be where the secondary comes in. That and bringing sweat and/or Moeller off the edge.

Still need to see something from Sabino before I believe it as well. Klein was ahead of him last I saw, and Furls I have a hard time seeing starting LBers sans Klien in 2012. It would be nice to see Shazier be a breakout player at SAM, we haven't had a good SAM since Carpenter.

Sweat was awful there last season in limited action. He is a liabilty at SAM and an all big ten caliber Will. Moeller I thought was the best player on the defense last season when he was playing, and that was with one arm. Looking forward to seeing him, really hoping for a relatively heathy season for him.


Johnson is my least favorite player in the secondary, but he played there all of last year so he is a push. There are rumors that we could see him lose his spot to Christian Bryant, who also looked very good prior to the infection that took him out for 1/2 the season. Barnett looked like he was really catching on last year until he was injured in the Miami game. Roby is an upgrade over Torrence, so all things equal.... not much has changed we just swapped Torrence for Roby (win) and got Barnett back (win) so that is two ++ for this year.

As for the LBs, if Klein was good he would have emerged, he has not and Sabino was definitely ahead of him on the depth chart. Now that said, Sabino is injured with a broken hand but is supposed to be back for the opener. I cannot see any reason to play Sabino against Akron. I have a hard to believing that Klein will ever really matter at tOSU. Sabino does make OSU better against the run and brings more physicality than we had last year, but I doubt that he will ever live up to the hype he got as the nation's #1 ILB prospect in 2008.

Rolle and Homan were rather unremarkable, yet neither Klein nor Sabino was able to push them. That says alot about both of them, so if we see Klein in 2012 then that means that we didn't do very well bringing in real talent at the LB position. Normally, when a player is going to be serious contributor you know about it during the camp of their first year... sometimes it is the second. For instance, Roby got a lot of run last year and is getting a ton of buzz this year. As a second year guy that bodes well for him. Klein on the other hand, has never been a guy that anyone has said, "this guy must see the field." Shazier and Grant on the other hand....

In the end, I just don't see how you can keep Grant and Shazier off the field next year and as OSU runs a 4-2-5, that leaves Klein as the odd man out... maybe he will be the SAM.

I definitely agree with you re: the DLine. They will be stout against the run, but I am not sure we will see the sacks we want. The DLine will get pressure, but getting pressure is not the same as getting sacks. The Bucks just don't have any edge rush from Williams, he gets there, just one second too late. I hope JT Moore is the answer, but I doubt it. The answer may not be on the roster yet, could be Adolphus Washington or Josh Perry from the class of 2012.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby JCoz » Mon Aug 22, 2011 12:44 pm

Individually, I dont disagree with your assessment on the secondary.

When we get into this statement, I have serious pause, and will need much, much more evidence to agree with you:

The secondary will be as good as we have seen since the Bucks featured Winfield, Plummer and Clements. The corners/safeties will allow this defense to attack in a way that we havent seen since 2005.


And on Klein we just clearly dont see eye to eye. He has played well in actual games, which is more than can be said for Sabino at this point. I remain unconvinced that Sabino will be able to hang onto his "starting" role until I see it for my own eyes. Seems like he's been penciled in every year for the las t three. So maybe that will explain the difference. I expect Klein to beat Sabino out one way or another and for him to be the starter for the majority and end of this season.

Sweat was not able to beat out the rather unremarkable Homan as well, so I don't see how you can hold that against Klein and yet not Sweat. Come to think of it, Sabino was not only unable to unseat those LBers, he was also unable to unseat both Sweat and Spitler in previous seasons. I dont think your logic is consistant on that point.

Either way it doesn't matter, we will see it play out on the field. I'd love for Sabino to finally come around.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:00 pm

Don't get me wrong, I was very clear in saying that I don't think Sabino is the answer, but I would also argue that Klein is clearly not the answer as well. He has not been a serious contender for PT yet since coming to the program 3 years ago. He has always trailed Sabino on the depth chart and I see no reason to believe that will change. To me it is pretty obvious that neither are guys that "have to see the field." I am not buying the Sabino now either. I think if Sabino loses his job it will be to Grant or Shazier. I could definitely see Grant, who is the most physically ready to play, screaming up the depth chart as he gets his feet under him during practice this year.

Sweat has been impressive since coming to the program and was pushing for PT as a true sophomore with plenty of camp buzz. He was in the two deep as a soph and was doing well before being lost for the second half of the year to injury. I think Sweat was on track to seize that job going into last year until he was injured. Coming off the injury with limited reps in spring camp and limited run in fall camp allowed the job to fall to the incumbent.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:03 pm

My comment about the overall strength of the secondary may have been a bit of hyperbole, but this is the first year I can remember that I am excited about all positions in the secondary. The only guy I am at all concerned about is OJ.

In years past the Bucks have always had some liability in the secondary, guys like Anderson Russell or Antonio Smith, (last year it was injuries that pressed some not ready guys into service like Dominick Clarke). This year, that gaping hole does not exist.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby JCoz » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:09 pm

furls wrote:Don't get me wrong, I was very clear in saying that I don't think Sabino is the answer, but I would also argue that Klein is clearly not the answer as well. He has not been a serious contender for PT yet since coming to the program 3 years ago. He has always trailed Sabino on the depth chart and I see no reason to believe that will change. To me it is pretty obvious that neither are guys that "have to see the field." I am not buying the Sabino now either. I think if Sabino loses his job it will be to Grant or Shazier. I could definitely see Grant, who is the most physically ready to play, screaming up the depth chart as he gets his feet under him during practice this year.

Sweat has been impressive since coming to the program and was pushing for PT as a true sophomore with plenty of camp buzz. He was in the two deep as a soph and was doing well before being lost for the second half of the year to injury. I think Sweat was on track to seize that job going into last year until he was injured. Coming off the injury with limited reps in spring camp and limited run in fall camp allowed the job to fall to the incumbent.


See the way I recall it, Klein was our #1 backup when healthy last year and I recall hearing plenty of good things about him in practice and I remember seeing some good things in games. I have expected Klein to push and beat out Sabino since last year.

I think we have heard very different things over the years regarding him up to now. We'll see how it goes in the field.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:11 pm

Sabino was off the board last year while RS.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby danwismar » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:15 pm

Klein played behind two guys who are both now on NFL rosters. Say what you will about how Homan and Rolle were unremarkable, but both got drafted into the league.

The talk all spring was that Sabino would be the starting MLB (this while Klein was sitting out spring ball with a hamstring issue). Come August, Klein is the starting MLB, and Sabino moved to Sam. The big question at the start of camp was which one of Klein or Sabino would stay on the field when Moeller came on in the nickel...and in practices and scrimmages to this point, the answer to that question has been Sabino. How his injury might change that calculation remains to be seen.

I will say that Sabino was very impressive in the three spring scrimmages, though he didn't do much this past Saturday...not sure when it was that he broke the hand. Sideline to sideline speed...good tackling technique...have no idea how he'll hold up in pass coverage responsibilities.

Klein hits like a truck...more so than Homan, I think...though he's as sure a tackler as Homan is....he has good hands and coverage skills..and he is athletic, with decent speed...played RB in H.S. I think he will surprise a lot of people in the probably 30-40% of the plays that he is on the field. I have always felt that he had a little Spielman in him.

I think the Buckeyes' sacks will come from Sweat, Moeller, Shazier, Simon, and some DB's....as well as a few from Bellamy, Hankins and Williams. (They blitzed Sweat a lot on Saturday) I do not think that overall this team will be unable to pressure the QB. That is among the least of my concerns about them.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby danwismar » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:19 pm

Ask any OSU beat writer which secondary player has made the biggest leap into this year, and to a man, they will say it's O.J.

He looks bigger, faster, more physical....more confident. Again, you'll see it too...as soon as the action starts. I think some of Furls' reservations will be put to rest.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby JCoz » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:19 pm

danwismar wrote:The big question at the start of camp was which one of Klein or Sabino would stay on the field when Moeller came on in the nickel...and in practices and scrimmages to this point, the answer to that question has been Sabino.


I agree with you on Klein Dan, and as for the above question, this is the role I expect Klein to beat Sabino out in sometime this season.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby JCoz » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:22 pm

danwismar wrote:Ask any OSU beat writer which secondary player has made the biggest leap into this year, and to a man, they will say it's O.J.

He looks bigger, faster, more physical....more confident. Again, you'll see it too...as soon as the action starts. I think some of Furls' reservations will be put to rest.


Really? That surprises me, although, I think in some ways it doesn't, I think very highly of Bryant, and seeing as he isn't going to beat out a healthy Moeller for Star, I'd have said OJ was going to have his work cut out for him this offseason keeping Bryant off the field.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:22 pm

Dan,

All things are relative. OSU fans are spoiled as they are used to have AAs at LB, and Homan and Rolle were not. Good players, just unremarkable from an OSU stand point. As a matter of fact, I will have a hard time remembering the starting LBs in 2 or 3 years.

I am not concerned about the team being able to pressure the QB, they will on every down, my concern is in their ability to make the plays in the backfield without blitzing instead of having the QB chuck it out of bounds. Loss of down is nice, loss of down with a seven yard loss is a drive killer.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby danwismar » Mon Aug 22, 2011 2:39 pm

furls wrote:Dan,

All things are relative. OSU fans are spoiled as they are used to have AAs at LB, and Homan and Rolle were not. Good players, just unremarkable from an OSU stand point. As a matter of fact, I will have a hard time remembering the starting LBs in 2 or 3 years.

I am not concerned about the team being able to pressure the QB, they will on every down, my concern is in their ability to make the plays in the backfield without blitzing instead of having the QB chuck it out of bounds. Loss of down is nice, loss of down with a seven yard loss is a drive killer.


No real argument with any of that Furls. We have to get used to the fact that the Big Ten is no longer getting the best of the best. Greg Jones was supposedly all-World for MSU for three years, let alone all-conference. The NFL yawned.

This year can't be said to be a great year for LB's in the conference...Mauti, Borland, Lavonte David. I think when it's said and done, Sweat will be as good as any of them...but like you said...it's all relative.

You talked earlier about how the embarrassment of riches as LB is not real after all the attrition...and you're spot on with that. Making it worse is losing the best LB in the state (Hicks, DePriest) two years in a row to southern schools. Glance at someone like Phil Steele's lists of incoming freshmen by position. At several positions, you've got to go 15-20 deep on the list before you see a kid going to a Big Ten school. (B Miller and the two Grants are the rare exceptions this year)
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:01 pm

No arguments with any of your points. Jordan Hicks and Trey DePriest were solid prospects.

Your point with Phil Steele's list is well taken, but there is one point that I believe is important in this and that is that I generally believe that midwest talent is underrated. Phil Steele is generally more balanced than others, but generally midwest kids are undervalued (and southern kids can tend to be overrated). One of the services, Rivals, doesn't even have a midwest analyst. How can that be? Recruiting rankings are generally built on hype, and the machine feeds itself. In the end, the only real way to tell is with the camps and film.

OSU's hit percentage on camp offers has been other worldly with many of them appearing very questionable until the kid's career starts/ends. Guys like Sanz, Devin Smith, Laurinaitis, Jenkins etc. Most of these offers left the pundits scratching their heads and made the staff look like geniuses.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:07 pm

Man is it good to be talking about fooball again!
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby danwismar » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:23 pm

Here's Pat Forde (sorry) sort of making my point about Big Ten recruiting:

http://espn.go.com/college-football/pre ... stays-same
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby noles1 » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:57 pm

As an update, I did read last week that NYG coaches have been raving about Greg Jones throughout their camp. Sometimes it can be just one of those things nationally that gets hidden or lost how talented players are.

Read the same of Cameron Heyward out of Pittsburgh camp and yet some of the other prospects picked ahead of him have struggled. Albeit early and the real proof still to be shown but it's actually fascinating sometimes to see which players ultimately make waves and those that don't. Casey Matthews being another in Philly.

Homan always struck me as a solid player but came up short to some of the past AA stature. Rolle was basically always undersized and made up for his defiencies with heart and determination, only problem is his weaknesses were so easily exploited by Wisconsin (power) or SEC types (speed) and I say that with those teams being on the college football upper echelon for each.

My points are somewhat digressions from your discussion but enjoyin the points made.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:02 pm

God I hate Pat Forde, his analysis is always paper thin. The faulty underlying assumption is that the ESPNU 150 is accurate.

He kind of discredits his own premise when he acknowledges that BSU and TCU are not getting all world classes but are top 10 teams, while high ranking classes from FSU and the U seem to fizzle. Take a quick look at recent classes to see that basically recruiting rankings (and we all use them) really are not a good barometer of a kids future potential, but at best are an indication of the hype surrounding his current play.

Here are the scout class rankings for the 2006 and 2007 classes (these are the senior classes of 2009, 10)

2006 class rank (2009 results)

1USC (#20, 9-4)
2FL (#3, SEC champs)
3TX (#2, National Runner ups)
4GA (unranked)
5ND (unranked)
6PSU (#8, 11-2)
7LSU (#17, 9-4)
8Oklahoma (unranked)
9Auburn (unranked)
10scUM (unranked)
11Pitt (#15, 10-3)
12FSU (unranked)
13Miami (unranked)
14OSU (#5, 11-2)
15Ole Miss (#21, 9-4)
16OK State (#25, 9-4)
17TTech (#23, 9-4)
18Alabama (national champs)
19AZ (unranked)
20UCLA (unranked)

2007 (2010 results keep in mind many were major cont. to their teams 2009 success)
1FL (unranked)
2USC (unranked)
3TX (unranked)
4TN (unranked)
5LSU (#8, 11-2)
6Auburn (National Champs)
7USC (East) (#22, 9-5)
8Pitt (unranked)
9Oregon (#3, 12-1)
10scUM (unranked)
11ND (unranked)
12Cal (unranked)
13Miami (unranked)
14UNC (unranked)
15GATech (unranked)
16OSU (#5, 12-1)
17GA (unranked)
18WVU (unranked)
19PSU (unranked)
20Illinois (unranked)

Pretty interesting that the top 20 recruiting classes of 2007 only netted five top 25 teams in 2010, the classes senior year. The top twenty 2006 recruiting classes did a little better, netting 11 top 25 finishers, but again, that is far from a strong correlation. As a matter of fact, I would say that the results actually show serious biases at work. I am sure that there is a regional bias, but even more likely is the self fellating bias; basically one agency/school picks up on a player and the others follow. It is a little strange that so many schools with low rankings have excelled, implying that maybe the tail is wagging the dog. Again, this quick study is far from comprehensive or conclusive.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:04 pm

noles1 wrote:As an update, I did read last week that NYG coaches have been raving about Greg Jones throughout their camp. Sometimes it can be just one of those things nationally that gets hidden or lost how talented players are.

Read the same of Cameron Heyward out of Pittsburgh camp and yet some of the other prospects picked ahead of him have struggled. Albeit early and the real proof still to be shown but it's actually fascinating sometimes to see which players ultimately make waves and those that don't. Casey Matthews being another in Philly.

Homan always struck me as a solid player but came up short to some of the past AA stature. Rolle was basically always undersized and made up for his defiencies with heart and determination, only problem is his weaknesses were so easily exploited by Wisconsin (power) or SEC types (speed) and I say that with those teams being on the college football upper echelon for each.

My points are somewhat digressions from your discussion but enjoyin the points made.


Speaking of underrated, it looks like Kurt Coleman may end up being an All Pro out in Philly in the very near future as a 7th round pick. Shocking to me, that he lasted so long. He was a major playmaker at tOSU for a long time.
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Re: 2011 Defense

Unread postby furls » Mon Aug 22, 2011 5:09 pm

I will admit that there are some can't miss HS players, like Jadaveon Clowney (last year's #1 recruit). If this kid is not the #1 pick the 2013 NFL draft it is because he is dead or in prison.

A youtube for your viewing pleasure:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTkmiBdoBDc
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