papacass wrote:How can you possibly know that? Two kids that aren't even done growing out all their peach fuzz yet? How can you possibly know what they're going to become?
If I was told I was going to suck ass in my chosen line of work at age 20, how great of a disservice would that person have done to me? Same goes if someone had told me I was destined for greatness? In either instance, my will to improve myself would have been damaged. In any profession, you teach a young kid. You coach them, you discipline them and encourage them when appropriate, you let them mature (or not mature). But you can't possibly know what you have before you've done those things.
Good thing is, the Cavs' success is now being measured on a geologic level, so they're not in a hurry for anything. If it takes TT five years to become a productive veteran, the Cavs can wait. They (and we) have nothing but time on our hands. You can make war with that fact or make peace with it. But the fact isn't going anywhere.
Just when you think you've waited 47 years and you have no patience left, fate intervenes and you need more patience. That, or find another hobby.
Let's say that you want to be an astrophysicist, but you can't do math beyond Algebra 2 level. I can tell you that you will suck at your chosen profession. Givony broke this kid down:
-Thompson only scored 0.938 PPP overall (4th last in bigmen)
-TT scored 0.749 points per-possessions with his back to the basket, 2nd to last in this group
-TT scored a sample worst 0.654 PPP on a jump shots
-More than a quarter (26.3%) of his possessions resulted in a free throw
-49% free throw conversion rate
-average finisher (64%)
We got a PF who has two skills:
1. defense
2. getting to the line
1. It has yet to be seen that he can guard guys at the next level. For PFs drafted in the Top 30 (which we can assume most starters will be), he is half an inch shorter with slightly shorter arms. He is slightly more athletic, but only by an inch (no step vert) to an inch and a half (combine max vert). He is also lighter and not as strong.
2. Sure, he got to the line a ton. Doesn't mean anything if you can't convert your free throws. JJ took 367 FT and hit 247 (67%). At his current rate, TT would have knocked down 180. 67 points difference, just left at the line. There have been teams that couldn't put up that many points over four quarters this past year.
He might be a good offensive rebounder, but his defensive rebounding numbers blew. Its not that he isn't a good athlete, he is. But he isn't an elite, freak athlete, which is what you need when you are undersized. That or you have to have a post game. Kid has neither.
You are right, he might be a serviceable bench player. Is that really what you want out of the number 4 pick? Especially when there is a player who played against higher competition, rebounded way better on the defensive end, has legit size at his position, didn't turn the ball over, and shot 20%TS better.
We picked a guy who might be OK over a guy who could be great. That's the issue.
