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Pluto whiffs on +/-

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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Apr 18, 2011 3:10 pm

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:
Any stat is worthless if the sample size is tiny. One game means nothing, whether it be baseball or basketball.



Sasha. Pavlovic.


http://www.82games.com/ilardi2.htm

This column is by a couple of Ph.D's at 82games who came up with an "adjusted" +/- to try and compensate for the fact that mediocre players on good teams will have higher +/- numbers than good players on bad teams. I suggested dealing with this problem by using +/- only to compare players on the same team, but the authors came up with something a lot more sophisticated. Looking at the names of the players who came out on top of their adjusted rankings you'll see pretty much a Who's Who of NBA basketball in 2007-08. The exception is Jamario Moon, who somehow managed to get into the top ten as a rookie. The authors had a special observation about him, noting that their method of reducing statistical noise involves using five years of data, whereas with Moon they only had one year so the result isn't as valid. You'll notice that your buddy Sasha was dead last on the Cavs in adjusted +/- that year.

One thing I like about what they're doing is incorporating defense, which gets lost in a lot of other stats that are used to compare players. This gives an advantage to a player who contributes more or less equally on both ends like Kevin Garnett as opposed to a player whose contribution is heavily on the offensive side like Chris Paul or Kobe Bryant.

Edit:

If you're looking for the raw numbers for individual players and various player combinations, Reb, you can find them here. The numbers would be better for 2010-11 if they calculated them on a per/minute basis but unfortunately that column is blank. Check out the league's top 3-player combinations.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus.jsp
Last edited by Prosecutor on Mon Apr 18, 2011 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Mon Apr 18, 2011 3:54 pm

OH SNAP - PROS FOUND ADJUSTED +/-

(granted he hasn't yet found the site where the major database is housed if he is still only going to 82 games and basketball reference for his "advanced statistical analysis")

We're moving on up!

Although adjusted +/- just opens the whole Wayne Winston - Kevin Durant three years ago argument.

BUT GUYS, THIS IS PROGRESS
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Mon Apr 18, 2011 4:08 pm

e0y2e3 wrote:OH SNAP - PROS FOUND ADJUSTED +/-

(granted he hasn't yet found the site where the major database is housed if he is still only going to 82 games and basketball reference for his "advanced statistical analysis")

We're moving on up!

Although adjusted +/- just opens the whole Wayne Winston - Kevin Durant three years ago argument.

BUT GUYS, THIS IS PROGRESS



And it only took 2 Sasha Pavlovic references to go from +/- to adjusted +/-.


Pros, come back when you've discovered the intricacies of Usage Rate and True Shooting Percentage.
Fuck the Browns...
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby Prosecutor » Mon Apr 18, 2011 9:37 pm

rebelwithoutaclue wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:OH SNAP - PROS FOUND ADJUSTED +/-

(granted he hasn't yet found the site where the major database is housed if he is still only going to 82 games and basketball reference for his "advanced statistical analysis")

We're moving on up!

Although adjusted +/- just opens the whole Wayne Winston - Kevin Durant three years ago argument.

BUT GUYS, THIS IS PROGRESS



And it only took 2 Sasha Pavlovic references to go from +/- to adjusted +/-.


Pros, come back when you've discovered the intricacies of Usage Rate and True Shooting Percentage.


Thanks, Rebel. Glad I could help you find those current +/- numbers. And no, I don't think you're retarded or something. That 82games site can be confusing.
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby rebelwithoutaclue » Tue Apr 19, 2011 11:18 am

Prosecutor wrote:
rebelwithoutaclue wrote:
e0y2e3 wrote:OH SNAP - PROS FOUND ADJUSTED +/-

(granted he hasn't yet found the site where the major database is housed if he is still only going to 82 games and basketball reference for his "advanced statistical analysis")

We're moving on up!

Although adjusted +/- just opens the whole Wayne Winston - Kevin Durant three years ago argument.

BUT GUYS, THIS IS PROGRESS



And it only took 2 Sasha Pavlovic references to go from +/- to adjusted +/-.


Pros, come back when you've discovered the intricacies of Usage Rate and True Shooting Percentage.


Thanks, Rebel. Glad I could help you find those current +/- numbers. And no, I don't think you're retarded or something. That 82games site can be confusing.



Nice one. I have no problem admitting when I don't understand something. You on the other hand....
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby Prosecutor » Tue Apr 19, 2011 5:01 pm

I admit there is at least one thing I don't understand, Reb. Considering how much we Cleveland fans have suffered over the years between the Indians, Browns, the other Browns, and Cavaliers, I don't understand how any die-hard Cleveland sports fan can delight in ridiculing another and aggressively seek out every opportunity to do so. I accept it and I'll never complain about it, but I don't understand it.
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby e0y2e3 » Tue Apr 19, 2011 5:56 pm

We are now up to the final stage in the Pros trolling/melt cycle:

"You were mean to me on message boards so I am going to whine, take my ball and go home... HARUMPH!"

Tool.

PS: Have you worked on the crazy advanced stuff like using points per 100 possesions yet? Or are we still trying to get past your PHD article on adjusted +/-
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby Orenthal » Tue Apr 19, 2011 6:56 pm

^^Is sterling given the OP in this thread. Come full circle ya pillock.
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby JCoz » Mon May 09, 2011 4:20 pm

I'm really bored, so I'm popping in for the first time in a year, even though I've voluntarily taken this entire season off to recharge....

So......am I insane, or are we still talking about whether or not AV has any value at all?

Seriously?
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby Orenthal » Mon May 09, 2011 4:25 pm

Your insane because this thread is whether PROS has any value at all.
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby JCoz » Mon May 09, 2011 4:27 pm

Orenthal wrote:Your insane because this thread is whether PROS has any value at all.


Ah. My apologies.

I tried to do a search for the first version of this thread but it wont search for "AV" or "+/-"
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Re: Pluto whiffs on +/-

Unread postby Orenthal » Mon May 09, 2011 4:37 pm

Yeah, an epic thread, pup being the leader of the anti-Andy crew. All irrelevant now given he really only has debatable value on a good team vs., well, this crap.

Guess pup's side wins that one.

This year you basically missed whether Gilbert caused all the problems, or if he just shared in causation. Although there are some decent takes on overall NBA health, the CBA, and the playoffs in recent threads.
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