Who busts?

[JacksonDysonJackson]

This is such a huge draft for the Browns. It's the second draft in the Holmgren / Heckert era. The first with their new head coach. After a promising first draft, we can't take a step back in April.

They need to hit on a player at 6. A bust here would be devastating for a young team trying to compete in one of the best divisions in football.

I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on he players most likely to bust a the top of the first round. For arguments sake, let's limit to these guys:

Bowers
Dareus
Peterson
Green
Jones
Miller
Fairley
Gabbert
Newton

IMO, Bowers, Fairley, and Newton have the highest bust potential. They all are basically one year wonders, and that doesn't sit well with me. I would stay away from them if I was Heckert.

Your thoughts?

[pup]

Green
Gabbert

[Cease]

Strange feeling about Fairley being a buster... that he's a going to take a payday and then take several years off. Totally unfair and unfounded, but it's my hunch.

[yogi]

Just due to the nature of the position, the QBs.

None of the other positions need to have multiple talents other than physical necessary for success.

[peeker643]

Green
Gabbert

Why Green Pup? The diva potential? Just over-hyped?

Wondering why you think so. Gabbert I get. Law of averages. Personally like Jones better myself but wondered what the rationale was behind Green.

My choice is any of the QBs as well as Fairley.

[waborat]

The law of averages say it'll be whoever's name comes after "And with the 6th pick in the 2011 NFL draft, the Cleveland Browns select _________________"

[jta1975]

To me this is a layup. Gotta go with the most likely position to be a bust. QB is the hardest to predict so I will take the low hanging fruit.

I simply say the QB who has to play now. I think more people expect Gabbert is most ready of the two so he will probably be playing earlier. I take him.

Top tier WRs are usually second victim but these two guys have no "classic" WR red flags. If Jones can stay healthy I believe both will be good players.

Bowers was such a stud player athletically that it took him a little longer to master the technique needed when playing against other good athletes.

Fairley plays the game how you want a DT to play he is just a nub. He is not the sharpest knife in the block so he gives the impression he has an attitude when really he just doesn't have a whole lot to say. He competes all out.

Dareus,Peterson,Miller are clean dominant players. If they have issues it will be health related.

[pup]

Green
Gabbert

Why Green Pup? The diva potential? Just over-hyped?

Wondering why you think so. Gabbert I get. Law of averages. Personally like Jones better myself but wondered what the rationale was behind Green.

My choice is any of the QBs as well as Fairley.

Both diva and the same reason everyone is picking the QB's. It just happens. WR's bust as often as QB's so I went with the 50/50. I think the mental part will not be an issue with Jones because he has been beaten down by Saban.

With Green, he got massaged and coddled throughout his college career, including people saying not to be too hard on him for costing his team with a suspension because he wanted to hang out with some agents. Just shows a lack of commitment to his team. Will he be willing to spend the extra time it takes to build a relationship with his QB?

Fairley is a good choice as well. One year wonder and all that.

[jta1975]

Let's not mistake what A.J. Green's football character is like. You will not find one person who has been around this kid question his work ethic. The kid gets praised by EVERYONE for his work ethic. He is more dedicated to mastering his craft than anyone on that team. He will put in the work. He is one of the rare ones with drive to match his god given skills.

This work ethic statement is not an opinion it is fact. The kid has never been questioned about putting in the time.

If the scarlet letter comes from selling a jersey then so be it. However, it is not coming from his work ethic.

[JCoz]

Not that I've been great at this in the past, but for kicks -

Comments are chances of bust -

Bowers - Med-High
Dareus - Low
Peterson - Low
Green - Low
Jones - Low
Miller - Med-High
Fairley - Med
Gabbert - Med
Newton - High

[JCoz]

Let's not mistake what A.J. Green's football character is like. You will not find one person who has been around this kid question his work ethic. The kid gets praised by EVERYONE for his work ethic. He is more dedicated to mastering his craft than anyone on that team. He will put in the work. He is one of the rare ones with drive to match his god given skills.

This work ethic statement is not an opinion it is fact. The kid has never been questioned about putting in the time.

If the scarlet letter comes from selling a jersey then so be it. However, it is not coming from his work ethic.

Agreed, have heard all the same, from multiple sources.

[JCoz]

Green
Gabbert

Why Green Pup? The diva potential? Just over-hyped?

Wondering why you think so. Gabbert I get. Law of averages. Personally like Jones better myself but wondered what the rationale was behind Green.

My choice is any of the QBs as well as Fairley.

Both diva and the same reason everyone is picking the QB's. It just happens. WR's bust as often as QB's so I went with the 50/50. I think the mental part will not be an issue with Jones because he has been beaten down by Saban.

With Green, he got massaged and coddled throughout his college career, including people saying not to be too hard on him for costing his team with a suspension because he wanted to hang out with some agents. Just shows a lack of commitment to his team. Will he be willing to spend the extra time it takes to build a relationship with his QB?

Fairley is a good choice as well. One year wonder and all that.

Wow, I think your Green Analysis is way off the reservation. Bordering on ridiculous and unfounded.

[pup]

Green
Gabbert

Why Green Pup? The diva potential? Just over-hyped?

Wondering why you think so. Gabbert I get. Law of averages. Personally like Jones better myself but wondered what the rationale was behind Green.

My choice is any of the QBs as well as Fairley.

Both diva and the same reason everyone is picking the QB's. It just happens. WR's bust as often as QB's so I went with the 50/50. I think the mental part will not be an issue with Jones because he has been beaten down by Saban.

With Green, he got massaged and coddled throughout his college career, including people saying not to be too hard on him for costing his team with a suspension because he wanted to hang out with some agents. Just shows a lack of commitment to his team. Will he be willing to spend the extra time it takes to build a relationship with his QB?

Fairley is a good choice as well. One year wonder and all that.

Wow, I think your Green Analysis is way off the reservation. Bordering on ridiculous and unfounded.

Getting suspended for 30% of the season doesn't show a lack of commitment to your team? Raises the same red flags to me as it did for the Tat5.

I never commented on his work ethic. But you surely cannot disagree Marc Richt runs a softer overall program than Nick Saban. Which is the point I was making. You know Jones can handle some ass kicking. You don't know if Green can.

The thread asked for thoughts on potential busts. Most everyone is saying Newton and maaaaaybe one other cat. This thing don't work that way. So I went with someone that I knew nobody else would pick and why. Shoot me. You say my concerns are not valid, OK. I hope for the kid (and the Browns because they are going to take him if he is there) I am wrong.

[JCoz]

Getting suspended for 30% of the season doesn't show a lack of commitment to your team? Raises the same red flags to me as it did for the Tat5.

I never commented on his work ethic. But you surely cannot disagree Marc Richt runs a softer overall program than Nick Saban. Which is the point I was making. You know Jones can handle some ass kicking. You don't know if Green can.

The thread asked for thoughts on potential busts. Most everyone is saying Newton and maaaaaybe one other cat. This thing don't work that way. So I went with someone that I knew nobody else would pick and why. Shoot me. You say my concerns are not valid, OK. I hope for the kid (and the Browns because they are going to take him if he is there) I am wrong.

No problems with you choosing him as a possible buster, just your reasoning behind it.

No I don't think it shows a lack of team commitment. I think it shows a lack of judgment or poor judgment in that particular case.

And to say that because Saban wasn't his coach that he is a coddled and soft kid is taking things a bit far in trying to extrapolate valid concerns from limited information, IMO.

[jb]

Getting suspended for 30% of the season doesn't show a lack of commitment to your team? Raises the same red flags to me as it did for the Tat5.

I never commented on his work ethic. But you surely cannot disagree Marc Richt runs a softer overall program than Nick Saban. Which is the point I was making. You know Jones can handle some ass kicking. You don't know if Green can.

Rack it.

They all know the rules. Many still put themelves first and cheat. The dumb ones get caught.

And there is no question that saban is bad ass and no one has underperformed with an much talnt as much as Richt.

[JCoz]

Getting suspended for 30% of the season doesn't show a lack of commitment to your team? Raises the same red flags to me as it did for the Tat5.

I never commented on his work ethic. But you surely cannot disagree Marc Richt runs a softer overall program than Nick Saban. Which is the point I was making. You know Jones can handle some ass kicking. You don't know if Green can.

Rack it.

They all know the rules. Many still put themelves first and cheat. The dumb ones get caught.

And there is no question that saban is bad ass and no one has underperformed with an much talnt as much as Richt.

Given most accounts about his commitment to the things that will actually matter at the next level, I'd say these are way overblown concerns.

Regarding Richt......I don't see how the coaches track record relates in a tangible way.

Saban was Plax's coach, and as far as under achieving coaches go, I'll see your Richt and raise you a Stache.

And he coached Fitz.

That kind of argument is akin to a dog chasing his tail.

Round and round we go.

[jb]

Except Saban called our Plex before the draft. Told NFL execs to avoid him.

IMO, and Pups, Green has a red flag.

YMMV. Cool.

[JCoz]

Except Saban called our Plex before the draft. Told NFL execs to avoid him.

IMO, and Pups, Green has a red flag.

YMMV. Cool.

Fair enough on all accounts, however, Saban calling out Plax predraft and not Jones says something about Jones, and says absolutely nothing to the point of "Player A had x coach so he will leave the program with x character quality"

Just sayin.

[pup]

Except Saban called our Plex before the draft. Told NFL execs to avoid him.

IMO, and Pups, Green has a red flag.

YMMV. Cool.

Fair enough on all accounts, however, Saban calling out Plax predraft and not Jones says something about Jones, and says absolutely nothing to the point of "Player A had x coach so he will leave the program with x character quality"

Just sayin.

But nobody is saying that.

I am saying, historically, about 50% of 1st round WR's bust. There are 2 in this draft, so in a thread asking about who might bust and given both of them as an option, I am picking the one that:

Got suspended for putting himself above his teammates
Has a coach who allows for a sense of entitlement and runs a very player friendly program.
Has not been kicked in the ass so you don't know how he will handle it.

I am not picking the one that:
Played through a bunch of injuries (and played well)
Had a coach who constantly kicks guys in the ass, so you know how he will handle being kicked in the ass.

[JCoz]

Except Saban called our Plex before the draft. Told NFL execs to avoid him.

IMO, and Pups, Green has a red flag.

YMMV. Cool.

Fair enough on all accounts, however, Saban calling out Plax predraft and not Jones says something about Jones, and says absolutely nothing to the point of "Player A had x coach so he will leave the program with x character quality"

Just sayin.

But nobody is saying that.

I am saying, historically, about 50% of 1st round WR's bust. There are 2 in this draft, so in a thread asking about who might bust and given both of them as an option, I am picking the one that:

Got suspended for putting himself above his teammates
Has a coach who allows for a sense of entitlement and runs a very player friendly program.
Has not been kicked in the ass so you don't know how he will handle it.

I am not picking the one that:
Played through a bunch of injuries (and played well)
Had a coach who constantly kicks guys in the ass, so you know how he will handle being kicked in the ass.

Both your original post and JB's original response to yours had some statements that are definitely NOT what you are stating clearly here.

If that is what you meant in the first place, then its a solid way to place your bet, can't argue at all. I think the "allows for a sense of entitlement" is debatable but its splitting hairs.

[hiko]

Gabby is an easy choice, although he'll probably end up being serviceable for a while - not anywhere worth a Top 10 pick, but not a true Bust either.

Fairley is another one that strikes me as a home run or a K.

And both WR's. As already pointed out, there is a high failure rate for WR's picked in the Top 10.

[pup]

Except Saban called our Plex before the draft. Told NFL execs to avoid him.

IMO, and Pups, Green has a red flag.

YMMV. Cool.

Fair enough on all accounts, however, Saban calling out Plax predraft and not Jones says something about Jones, and says absolutely nothing to the point of "Player A had x coach so he will leave the program with x character quality"

Just sayin.

But nobody is saying that.

I am saying, historically, about 50% of 1st round WR's bust. There are 2 in this draft, so in a thread asking about who might bust and given both of them as an option, I am picking the one that:

Got suspended for putting himself above his teammates
Has a coach who allows for a sense of entitlement and runs a very player friendly program.
Has not been kicked in the ass so you don't know how he will handle it.

I am not picking the one that:
Played through a bunch of injuries (and played well)
Had a coach who constantly kicks guys in the ass, so you know how he will handle being kicked in the ass.

Both your original post and JB's original response to yours had some statements that are definitely NOT what you are stating clearly here.

If that is what you meant in the first place, then its a solid way to place your bet, can't argue at all. I think the "allows for a sense of entitlement" is debatable but its splitting hairs.

I guess I need to work on my wording. I read my answer to Peak and think it says the same thing as above with different words.

[SoulDawg74]

This is such a huge draft for the Browns. It's the second draft in the Holmgren / Heckert era. The first with their new head coach. After a promising first draft, we can't take a step back in April.

They need to hit on a player at 6. A bust here would be devastating for a young team trying to compete in one of the best divisions in football.

I'm interested in everyone's thoughts on he players most likely to bust a the top of the first round. For arguments sake, let's limit to these guys:

Bowers
Dareus
Peterson
Green
Jones
Miller
Fairley
Gabbert
Newton

IMO, Bowers, Fairley, and Newton have the highest bust potential. They all are basically one year wonders, and that doesn't sit well with me. I would stay away from them if I was Heckert.

Your thoughts?

SD:

Green at 50/50

Gabbert at 80 % if drafted Cincy ,75% to Carolina, 60% at Arizona, or 50/50 at Sang Fran.....................


SoulDawg

[JacksonDysonJackson]

quick bump...

Mayock said on NFL net that he wouldn't draft Fairly in the first round. First time I've heard one of the big names address his bust potential.

Please just give me Dareus, Peterson, Miller, Jones, or Green at 6.

[SoulDawg74]

quick bump...

Mayock said on NFL net that he wouldn't draft Fairly in the first round. First time I've heard one of the big names address his bust potential.

Please just give me Dareus, Peterson, Miller, Jones, or Green at 6.

SD:

Mayock is worse than game officials who blow their whistles because he thinks the fans have come to see them.

He brings attention to himself by playing the contrarian with these stooid ass comments.

SoulDawg

[JacksonDysonJackson]

PFW's Draft Book has Fairly rated as the #16 rated player overall, high-lighting his extreme bust potential. So, Mayock isn't exactly just throwing shit out there for effect. Lots of questions on this kid.

[SoulDawg74]

PFW's Draft Book has Fairly rated as the #16 rated player overall, high-lighting his extreme bust potential. So, Mayock isn't exactly just throwing shit out there for effect. Lots of questions on this kid.

SD:

Fairley will be the second DT off the board after Dareus who will go in the top three picks , he'd have to fall 29 spots to make the second round which tells ya Mayock is full of shit.

Souldawg

[JacksonDysonJackson]

If you re-read my post, you'll see that I said Mayock stated that he wouldn't draft Fairly in the 1st, largely due to his bust potential. He never said (nor did I) that he wouldn't be drafted there. Its widely understood he's a first round pick.

I merely mentioned it because this thread was originally about who, amongst the top picks, will most likely bust.

[FUDU]

...and here I've been thinking, with the top heavy talent in this draft and the key needs we have, there is no way we can screw this up at #6. No you're telling me some of these guys WILL bust, oh fuck.

[JacksonDysonJackson]

I fail to see your point, FUDU.

Picks bust at the top of the draft every year.

The BRowns pick 6th this year.

The Browns have a history of having draft picks bust.

Seems worthy of discussion, no?

[FUDU]

Just being sarcastic. IMO no way we screw this up w/Heckert calling the shot.

[SoulDawg74]

Just being sarcastic. IMO no way we screw this up w/Heckert calling the shot.

SD:

Yeah , but what if Homie goes Butchum and decides Jake Locker is really just misunderstood.



SoulDawg