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Investment thread

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Investment thread

Unread postby FUDU » Sun Jan 30, 2011 12:18 pm

Every once in a while we get on the topic of money, any interest in posting some ideas, tips or anything on the subject (without getting into personal info).

I know I'm always looking for updated info on investing I'd think others are as well, especially those that are conservative with money and/or young/a bit green with personal finance.

For starters what are some opinions on the best way to invest short term right now? I'm talking 1 yr at most, just for the sake of not letting money sit in an ordinary saving/checking account (or is that about as good as it gets right now)? I mean CD's are junk right now no?
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby motherscratcher » Sun Jan 30, 2011 12:39 pm

I want to say one word to you, just one word. Are you listening?

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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Sun Jan 30, 2011 1:04 pm

I've went the gamit on stocks. From thinking I was a penny stock genius to now doing DRIP investing into a few blue chips.

If I had to give one stock and I think it would fulfill what you are looking for donny it is MO. Nice yield, stable share price, very liquid. Try and beat the yield in any conventional vehicle.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby pup » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:44 am

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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby swerb » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:23 am

I don't own one stock right now ... and have moved my 401(k) into a much less volatile mix of assets. I think the market is totally overbought, and the Dow will be back under 10,000 by late summer.

CPST continues to be my favorite $1 stock that could take off.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby FUDU » Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:36 am

swerb wrote:I don't own one stock right now ... and have moved my 401(k) into a much less volatile mix of assets. I think the market is totally overbought, and the Dow will be back under 10,000 by late summer.

CPST continues to be my favorite $1 stock that could take off.


Interesting.

I've tried to keep as much faith as I can in my guy and his advice about 401K, it's the traditional advice (at least from my experience) of you're young so take more chances now b/c you have time to recoup. But I have thought about moving the slide to a more conservative mix, he insists not to though.

My position right now is I'm just not sure what route I really want to go and in the mean time I do not want to miss out on some gains by letting money sit around b/c I am either skeptical or lolly gagging.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby exiledbuckeye » Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:44 am

I have a pretty diverse mix of stuff in my 401(K), but my one stock fund is an index fund - S&P 500 fund. The market may be volatile in the short term, but you can count on it going up over time. Of course I'm looking long-term here, so that may not be what you're looking for now.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Ziner » Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:54 am

I just put as much as I can away in my 401K, take my match each year, and dont screw with my stuff too much. I think most of it is in some 2045 retirement mix. I really don't care that much, most important thing to me is to be diversified for the long run and put away as much as I can.

Also helped that our US Bank 401K match that is paid in company stock two years ago was pretty much at our 5 year low. I think they matched at about 10/share and we are sitting at 26/share, so that was pretty sweet.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:31 pm

FUDU wrote:
swerb wrote:I don't own one stock right now ... and have moved my 401(k) into a much less volatile mix of assets. I think the market is totally overbought, and the Dow will be back under 10,000 by late summer.

CPST continues to be my favorite $1 stock that could take off.


Interesting.

I've tried to keep as much faith as I can in my guy and his advice about 401K, it's the traditional advice (at least from my experience) of you're young so take more chances now b/c you have time to recoup. But I have thought about moving the slide to a more conservative mix, he insists not to though.
My position right now is I'm just not sure what route I really want to go and in the mean time I do not want to miss out on some gains by letting money sit around b/c I am either skeptical or lolly gagging.


He is a bad financial manager. NO FM should insist a client do something they are not comfortable with. As a FM you explain what is typically the right path, or your system, but you adjust that to the clients risk threshold. I'm not a FM, but I do have an Accounting Degree and an absolute passion for this stuff. (Stayed at Holiday Inn Express if that makes ya feel better.)

My 2(cents). Also I would not be out of the market, and do not see a 2000 point haricut. If anything we trade sideways, but again gotta measure up against your risk tolerance.
Last edited by Orenthal on Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Mon Jan 31, 2011 5:38 pm

...and I am serious as a heart attack on MO. Find me a better management team. Also it has the perfect mix to be a compounders dream. Constant overhang of lawsuits creats a low valuation (P/E), huge market share and branding advantage create MASSIVE Cash Cow, large dividend payout that gets re-invested into cheap stock. Rinse and repeat.

That is a conservative way to pull in 6%+ interest.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby FUDU » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:13 pm

Oj the guy is rock solid and a cool MFer, when I say he insists its bc I ask him to tell me what he would do in my shoes, but he always does as I say in the end and explains the benefits of doing so. Thing is for me amongst this past 2 years of economic and investing hits my money has performed well with him in charge. So I think he views it more as no need to fix what ain't broke.

I'm looking into both stocks mentioned here though.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:35 am

Orenthal wrote:...and I am serious as a heart attack on MO. Find me a better management team. Also it has the perfect mix to be a compounders dream. Constant overhang of lawsuits creats a low valuation (P/E), huge market share and branding advantage create MASSIVE Cash Cow, large dividend payout that gets re-invested into cheap stock. Rinse and repeat.

That is a conservative way to pull in 6%+ interest.


And don't underestimate the marijuana factor. You don't think they're ready to step in as soon as it gets legalized and dominate the multi billion dollar industry?
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:23 pm

FUDU wrote:Oj the guy is rock solid and a cool MFer, when I say he insists its bc I ask him to tell me what he would do in my shoes, but he always does as I say in the end and explains the benefits of doing so. Thing is for me amongst this past 2 years of economic and investing hits my money has performed well with him in charge. So I think he views it more as no need to fix what ain't broke.

I'm looking into both stocks mentioned here though.


Cool. In typical MB fashion I went verdict, without all da facts.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:26 pm

CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! wrote:
Orenthal wrote:...and I am serious as a heart attack on MO. Find me a better management team. Also it has the perfect mix to be a compounders dream. Constant overhang of lawsuits creats a low valuation (P/E), huge market share and branding advantage create MASSIVE Cash Cow, large dividend payout that gets re-invested into cheap stock. Rinse and repeat.

That is a conservative way to pull in 6%+ interest.


And don't underestimate the marijuana factor. You don't think they're ready to step in as soon as it gets legalized and dominate the multi billion dollar industry?


:thumb up: :thumb up: :thumb up: :thumb up: :thumb up: (inlove) (inlove) (inlove) (inlove) (inlove)

They already bought 50% of the smokless market. Own a decent % of Miller Brewing still. Own Middleton (Black and Mild), own several wine brands.

If your into more growth potential PM was spun off and holds all sales outside the US.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Ziner » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:33 pm

CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! wrote:And don't underestimate the marijuana factor. You don't think they're ready to step in as soon as it gets legalized and dominate the multi billion dollar industry?


Its not legal where you live? I could swear it is here.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Tue Feb 01, 2011 4:42 pm

Trust me, living in Brooklyn you'd think it actually is legal. We may be a coupla steps behind you guys as far as legalization, but in terms of how pervasive it is here, we can't be matched.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Wed Dec 07, 2011 1:41 am

24% return on MO since we had this conversation. Still confident enough in it to continue holding.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Wed Dec 07, 2011 10:51 am

When I saw this bump, I started calculating the return. Did the 24% include divvy's, cuz I did a very rough calc, and its a bit more then that... But not material.

Even better is PM. I was involved in MO when it spun off. Over 30% when including the divvy.

VZ doing feh, and my FTR got slammed, but I'm drippin into that one, and the 13% div has held so far. However it may not be sustainable they have a high payout ratio. I'll stick in to see if they can continue to integrate the old VZ land lines.

Oh, my only other holding is a play in SIRI. Their FCF is exploding in 2012, and the ever present buyout from Liberty should give the stock support.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:19 pm

Not really sure what its including, my Merril account shows a +24% gain on my holding of MO.

Care to elaborate a bit more on SIRI? Longterm I don't see too much value in them.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Wed Dec 07, 2011 9:51 pm

Essentially SIRI has a monopoly in the satellite radio space. While that doesn't mean much because their competition ranges from terrestrial to streaming to Ipods it has driven down content costs by many factors. Also since they no longer compete against XM all their deals with automakers are now on more favorable terms. So short run they are profitable, have exploding FCF (guidance for an 85% increase YOY), and have the Liberty Media buyout hanging over the stock which would no doubt be at a premium.

Long term they own bandwidth which is always valuable, they have very low fixed costs, and can now maintain their debt load. The have had 3 debt ratings increases just this year and are only a step below investment grade. Also barrier to entry for a SIRI streaming service is nonexistent. They can instantly fire up unsubscribed radios with preview channels. Mel even hinted at lighting up radios with perhaps 10 ad-supported channels.

In the end its all about content. They have the exclusive content that others do not, and its all wrapped into one service. The stock is obviously more of a risk then MO, but with that explosion of cash they will have plenty accretive options available for shareholders.

FD Im long the stock, have owned it all year, and have invested in SatRad on and off since '03 mostly in XM before the merger.

Great presentation by Mel Karmazin (father of the WKNR owner lmao) at the Liberty event . Requires login, but is filled with info.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Thu Dec 08, 2011 1:46 am

Very informative, thanks. You make great points, but I'm not really sold on the actual technology's growth in the current digital media era. Granted their costs are lower due to monopolizing, but if there's no demand for their product it doesn't matter if their costs are 0.

I personally view SIRI as a great short term position, but am not sold enough to start holding it long.
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Wed Dec 21, 2011 11:30 am

MO over $30.00...

ETA
PM and KFT also on 52 week highs. Those people who invested in MO decades ago are pretty happy people...
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Tue Jan 10, 2012 4:29 pm

Sold my SIRI several days ago for a nice lil profit, then watched it go up another 8%. Moved that money into HAL. A great American company!
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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Cerebral_DownTime » Tue Jan 10, 2012 7:54 pm

Moved that money into HAL.


Fucking idiot. You've killed us all.

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Re: Investment thread

Unread postby Orenthal » Tue Jan 10, 2012 11:58 pm

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