Ignorant Q on 1st Round QBs

[Jumbo]

Preface: I have no opinion on who the Browns should draft, QB or otherwise. Just looking for some enlightment after a few minutes at pro football reference.

So: All four of the AFC/NFC championship teams have first round QBs: Cutler (#11), Rodgers (#24), Sanchez (#5), and Rapist (#11). Rock solid evidence you need a first round QB? Sure.

But here's the thing:

The season before drafting Cutler, the Broncos were 9-7. They were 13-3 the season before that.

The season before drafting Rodgers, the Pack was 10-6. And they had been over .500 for the previous few years.

The season before drafting Sanchez, the Jets were 9-7, after being 4-12 in '07 and 10-6 in '06.

The season before drafting Rapist, the Steelers were 6-10. But that followed seasons of 10-5-1 and 13-3.

So here's the ignorant Q: Based on those records, isn't it better to draft a QB after already building a good (or at least halfway decent) team, with the QB as one of the later pieces, rather than pinning your hopes on a "franchise QB" as the foundation of a rebuilding team?

[pup]

Not sure I have the stomach for another QB thread, but it goes beyond the 4 left.

The top 14 teams in the NFL (records) were all lead by quarterbacks selected in the first round or Bill Belicheck.

The rest of the teams had only a couple of first rounders. Not that they had not tried, but had been unsuccessful in choosing the right one.

EOD, there is always more than one way to skin a cat. And with the list you give above it is not a requirement to pick in the top 3 to get that franchise QB, so you can have a mediocre season and still have a shot at that guy.

In recent NFL drafts from the QB perspective, this is the largest truth I can find.

Picking a QB in the first round does not promise success.
Counting on a guy that nobody else picked in the first round either is pretty close to 100% fail.

These guys are wrong on picking a quarterback in the first round about 50% of the time. They are right about passing on a QB in the first round almost 100% of the time.

[peeker643]

EOD, there is always more than one way to skin a cat.

I don't believe this. Cats aren't a whole hell of a lot bigger than squirrels and I've pretty much only utilized one effective way to skin those.

I just don't believe that cats are all that different.

Anyway, what were we discussing???

[jb]

Yes.

The surfer needs the wave.

Then again, tis an anomoly that FUDU's idol is out of the playoffs, and SD has been this far many recent years past as well.

But as an axiom, a young QB will generlly develop better on an otherwise good team. You know, water being wet and all.

[hiko]

EOD, there is always more than one way to skin a cat.

There's more than one way to skin a cat, there's more than one way to get a girl in bed (unless you're POS), there's more than one way to run a WCO, there's more than one way to win in the NFL, there's more than one way to fuck a goat, there's more than one way to send pictures of your junk to eye candy, there's more than one way to run a successful Defense, there's more than one way to build a champion, there's more than one way to ditch your city for a pre-conceived team of ringers, there's more than one way to find your Franchise QB, there's more than one way to disembowel an aardvark.

Wait... I forget the question.

[peeker643]

EOD, there is always more than one way to skin a cat.

There's more than one way to skin a cat,

That's twice.

I'm telling you guys it's not so.

There's one good way.

I can demonstrate on a rabbit or squirrel or a cat ONE OF YOU provide. I'm not into cat killing.

You see a sign in my yard that says Cat Killing & Skinning. No you don't. You know why? Cuz killing and skinning cats ain't my fucking business.

[Jumbo]

Not sure I have the stomach for another QB thread, but it goes beyond the 4 left.

The top 14 teams in the NFL (records) were all lead by quarterbacks selected in the first round or Bill Belicheck.

Noted. But this was meant to take a slightly different tack: not that you need to draft a first round QB (or trade for one, or sign for one), but when the appropriate time to pick one up is. How many ruined first round QBs does it take before deciding to go another direction?

Which leads to:

But as an axiom, a young QB will generlly develop better on an otherwise good team. You know, water being wet and all.

...and, corollary, flame out on an otherwise bad team?

Summary: AFAICT, Savior QBs /= Super Bowl Winning QBs. (Except Peyton Manning? And...maybe, Matt Ryan?)

[Fire Marshall Bill]

Well I think the best way to skin a cat is with two barrells of 12 ga double ought......ka'blamkittykittykitty

..but to answer the question, I'd ask Troy Aikman? He's lucky to have survived the Cowboy build let alone be around long enuff to get a couple rings and I bet he'd agree after seeing so many cat scan pics of his brain getting scrambled

[hiko]

There's plenty of examples of both scenarios (starting with a good team, starting with a shit team) working and failing. The only thing you can do is look at the guy you're thinking about drafting and asking yourself "Do I feel lucky?"

"Well, do I, punk?"

(In all actuality, you have to look at the QB and his skill set and his personality and his toughness and his leadership ability and his intelligence and ask yourself if he can thrive in your environment, but since we the general public won't ever know most of those things going into a draft we just have to pick a fave and get lucky.)

[JCoz]

The top 14 teams in the NFL (records) were all lead by quarterbacks selected in the first round or Bill Belicheck.

This is starting to irk me a bit, pup, seen you make a bunch of comments like this lately.

Lets get this shit straight.

These are the QB's drafted by Billy Boy
RD
7 Zac Robinson
3 Kevin O'Connell
7 Matt Cassel
6 Kliff Kingsbury
4 Rohan Davey
6 Tom Brady
7 Michael Bishop

Ok? Both hits were basically blind luck, and without the all-timer that is brady, this list is pretty goddamn ho hum.

Best coach in the league.

But lets not embellish his drafting skills, because they aren't all that.

Best thing he does is multiply his picks, because his "hits" are the same % or lower than many in the league, but more total picks = more hits.

And then there is the fact he doesn't prefer to pay anyone, so MOST of the better draft picks he's had, aren't on the team, and he loses most of those to FA, not trade.

[SoulDawg74]

The top 14 teams in the NFL (records) were all lead by quarterbacks selected in the first round or Bill Belicheck.

This is starting to irk me a bit, pup, seen you make a bunch of comments like this lately.

Lets get this shit straight.

These are the QB's drafted by Billy Boy
RD
7 Zac Robinson
3 Kevin O'Connell
7 Matt Cassel
6 Kliff Kingsbury
4 Rohan Davey
6 Tom Brady
7 Michael Bishop

Ok? Both hits were basically blind luck, and without the all-timer that is brady, this list is pretty goddamn ho hum.

Best coach in the league.

But lets not embellish his drafting skills, because they aren't all that.

Best thing he does is multiply his picks, because his "hits" are the same % or lower than many in the league, but more total picks = more hits.

And then there is the fact he doesn't prefer to pay anyone, so MOST of the better draft picks he's had, aren't on the team, and he loses most of those to FA, not trade.

SD:

Yom Brady made Mumbles not the other way around.

They found blind luck Gold in a six round pick , and Mumbles syumbled into a decent coach as a result .

Without the luck equated with Brady he'd be the POS inhuman being he was in Cleveland , no better than an unemployed Manginni.

and

Walsh getting Montanna in the third was also blind luck , sure he planned to get the guy in the third because he needed so much , butt knowing how either Montanna or Brady's careers would turn out ahead of time ain't no sane individual is gonna leave either on the board to get picked when they got picked.


SoulDawg