Text Size

The Gamblers Den

NFL season win totals

This is the place to discuss sports handicapping, poker, and other forms of gambling.

Moderators: peeker643, swerb, leadpipe

NFL season win totals

Unread postby Bigfist » Sat Aug 21, 2010 11:22 am

Here is what I bet when I was in Vegas:

Denver under 7.5 (-150)
Pittsburgh under 8.5 (-110)
SF over 9 (-110)
Browns over 5.5 (-115)
Buffalo under 5.5 (-140)
Arizona under 7.5 (+115)
Seattle under 7.5 (-170)

All comments welcomed.
User avatar
Bigfist
 
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:02 am
Location: Kinston, NC
Favorite Player: AJ Griffin
Least Favorite Player: Jeff Juden

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby swerb » Sat Aug 21, 2010 1:15 pm

Im with you on a lot of those ... sizing up my W/L total bets this week ..
"It's like dating a woman who hates you so much she will never break up with you, even if you burn down the house every single autumn." ~ Chuck Klosterman on Browns fans relationship with the Browns

http://www.twitter.com/theclevelandfan
User avatar
swerb
JoBu's bee-yotch
 
Posts: 17917
Joined: Thu Jan 19, 2006 5:04 pm
Location: Twinsburg, OH
Favorite Player: Mango Hab
Least Favorite Player: Bob LaMonte

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby JCoz » Sun Aug 22, 2010 12:34 am

Here is what I bet when I was in Vegas:

Denver under 7.5 (-150) I like over
Pittsburgh under 8.5 (-110) I like over (9)
SF over 9 (-110)
Browns over 5.5 (-115) (over is a really nice bet IMO)
Buffalo under 5.5 (-140)
Arizona under 7.5 (+115) (like the over)
Seattle under 7.5 (-170) (like the over but barely 8)

"All comments welcomed........."

I think the obvious is that if you think SF will win 10+ games, and both Seattle and AZ will win 7 or less....what the heck do you expect from St Louis?

And if it is to be worse than AZ and Seattle (which it should), what was the last division to only have one team with more than 8 wins?
User avatar
JCoz
Donnie, you're out of your element
 
Posts: 4158
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2007 11:57 am
Favorite Player: Competency
Least Favorite Player: Gene Smith

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby Bigfist » Sun Aug 22, 2010 10:58 am

Well, of course, this is all conjecture, but let me see. I hated the way Denver ended the season last year and I have them as the worst team in their division....both KC and Oakland, I think, will end up with better records. Their QB situation relies on Orton staying healthy, and he is no Peyton Manning. The loss of Dumerville is huge.

Pittsburgh, I think, clearly has fallen behind Baltimore and Cinci, and I think will be lucky to beat either of those teams in either game. I expect Cleveland to beat them once. I put Pittsburgh, at best, 8-8, and probably worse, and may well finish behind the Browns, and neither team will approach Cinci or Baltimore.

I cannot see how you have Seattle winning 8 games..they only won 5 last year, have a new coach (with no history of NFL success) and Hasselbeck is a year older and clearly a deteriorating product. They will have trouble staying ahead of St. Louis.

Arizona has lost their QB and Boldin..and who knows if Fitzgerald really will start the season healthy. I am not sold on Leinart at all, and I have them winning 7 or 6, so getting the under with + was a bargain, in my opinion.

And yes, I think this division will be, by far, the most woeful in football...even the AFC west will be better and that is saying something.

I tend to try to stay away from overs as much as possible, since one never knows about injuries during the season, but the Browns surely should win at least 6 and maybe 7, and I think SF is, by far, the class of the division.
User avatar
Bigfist
 
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:02 am
Location: Kinston, NC
Favorite Player: AJ Griffin
Least Favorite Player: Jeff Juden

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby Bigfist » Mon Aug 23, 2010 9:50 am

JCoz wrote:Here is what I bet when I was in Vegas:

Denver under 7.5 (-150) I like over
Pittsburgh under 8.5 (-110) I like over (9)
SF over 9 (-110)
Browns over 5.5 (-115) (over is a really nice bet IMO)
Buffalo under 5.5 (-140)
Arizona under 7.5 (+115) (like the over)
Seattle under 7.5 (-170) (like the over but barely 8)

"All comments welcomed........."

I think the obvious is that if you think SF will win 10+ games, and both Seattle and AZ will win 7 or less....what the heck do you expect from St Louis?

And if it is to be worse than AZ and Seattle (which it should), what was the last division to only have one team with more than 8 wins?


Just got around to checking historical standings. Last year, both the NFC and AFC west only had one team with more than 8 wins. In 2008, no team in the AFC West had more than 8 wins, and only one in the NFC west did. In 2007, the AFC east, AFC west, NFC north, NFC south, and NFC west all had only one team with more than 8 wins.

So, as you can see, it happens quite frequently.
User avatar
Bigfist
 
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:02 am
Location: Kinston, NC
Favorite Player: AJ Griffin
Least Favorite Player: Jeff Juden

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Mon Aug 23, 2010 8:56 pm

My initial thoughts:

Miami +8.5
Cincy -8
Browns +5.5
KC -6.5
Denver -7.5
Oakland +6
Jax -7
StL -5
TB -5.5
Detroit +5
GB +9.5
Minny +9.5
Arizona -7.5
Seattle -7.5

Not gonna do all those, but that's what jumps out at me.
User avatar
CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07!
 
Posts: 1927
Joined: Tue May 22, 2007 12:39 pm
Location: Brooklyn
Favorite Player: Troy Smith
Least Favorite Player: Braylon/Hughes/Pryor

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby leadpipe » Tue Aug 24, 2010 7:34 pm

Elvis' injury not changing that number is proof positive that there is only 1 position that moves season totals. Huge problem for Denver there. HAS to be under there now, especially if you're on the fence.

The best pick left the barn early with Hotlanta opening up at 8, with sharp $ steaming it quickly to 9.

I'll say this about season totals, if you are thinking the opposite of the direction a line is steaming, wait it out at this point. Early money follows the late money, they RARELY oscillate.
User avatar
leadpipe
The Reverend
 
Posts: 6558
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:58 am

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Wed Aug 25, 2010 1:48 pm

LP, what payout would you deem not worth the risk? For example, one of the bets I'm considering is the over on Oakland, but the payout is only -180. That's reason enough to push me away, but would you say the same about a -160 or -140?
User avatar
CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07!
 
Posts: 1927
Joined: Tue May 22, 2007 12:39 pm
Location: Brooklyn
Favorite Player: Troy Smith
Least Favorite Player: Braylon/Hughes/Pryor

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby leadpipe » Fri Aug 27, 2010 11:01 pm

CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! wrote:LP, what payout would you deem not worth the risk? For example, one of the bets I'm considering is the over on Oakland, but the payout is only -180. That's reason enough to push me away, but would you say the same about a -160 or -140?


Can I ask what the other side of the Raiders pays?

In the age of the internet, that's one of the huge problems, that is, in these future bets they hammer you on vig. Vig so high a sharp wouldn't bet there if he loved the play.

This, by the way, is the reason you should never wager a "blank to 1" to win the Super bowl. Because in a bet like that with only one side, and 98% of the players not even understanding how to calculate the vig on that bet, they oughta be wearin' a mask.

There's reason the sharps reside, or have runners in Vegas, instead of staying in their home states and getting down on line. It ain't the betting limits, it's the fact a guy sittin' in Vegas can go 56% for the year and jet ski in the offseason, while the internet gambler hitting 56% is lucky to be above water.
User avatar
leadpipe
The Reverend
 
Posts: 6558
Joined: Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:58 am

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby Bigfist » Mon Jan 03, 2011 7:27 pm

Bigfist wrote:Here is what I bet when I was in Vegas:

Denver under 7.5 (-150)
Pittsburgh under 8.5 (-110)
SF over 9 (-110)
Browns over 5.5 (-115)
Buffalo under 5.5 (-140)
Arizona under 7.5 (+115)
Seattle under 7.5 (-170)

All comments welcomed.


Result is 4-3, +0.8 units

Could have had a great result if the Browns would not have fallen apart!
User avatar
Bigfist
 
Posts: 1498
Joined: Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:02 am
Location: Kinston, NC
Favorite Player: AJ Griffin
Least Favorite Player: Jeff Juden

Re: NFL season win totals

Unread postby CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! » Tue Jan 04, 2011 1:24 am

CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07! wrote:My initial thoughts:

Miami +8.5
Cincy -8
Browns +5.5

KC -6.5
Denver -7.5
Oakland +6
Jax -7

StL -5
TB -5.5
Detroit +5
GB +9.5
Minny +9.5
Arizona -7.5
Seattle -7.5

Not gonna do all those, but that's what jumps out at me.


Ended up doing the ones in bold, plus SF -8.5 (at +175!), Carolina -7, Buffalo -5, and NO -10.5. TB was the only one I was really off on. If the Browns dont shit the bed, that's an insane success, but as it is, I still finished 7-5 and up about 25%.

Lead, I'm first seeing your response now. Those are very valid points, but I consider myself to be at the point (particularly lately) that I'm not just a random square off the street. My question was more if you have a specific vig in mind that is too high for you, or is it a case by case basis.
User avatar
CAVSTRIBEBROWNSin07!
 
Posts: 1927
Joined: Tue May 22, 2007 12:39 pm
Location: Brooklyn
Favorite Player: Troy Smith
Least Favorite Player: Braylon/Hughes/Pryor


Return to The Gamblers Den

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Exabot [Bot] and 1 guest

Who is online

In total there are 2 users online :: 1 registered, 0 hidden and 1 guest (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)
Most users ever online was 181 on Sat Feb 16, 2013 4:50 pm

Users browsing this forum: Exabot [Bot] and 1 guest