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First BCS, projection, sound about right...

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First BCS, projection, sound about right...

Unread postby FUDU » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:33 am

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=5673225

Boise atop the first rankings (projection), but Brad Edwards says no way they stay even if they run the table. I just don't see how they'd even be 1 at all at this point, in the race yes, not atop it. I can see Oregon, OK or OSU being atop the list for now, but to have Boise 1 and at the same time the Buckeyes 5 (with that margin in pts) seems pretty far off IMO.
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Re: First BCS, projection, sound about right...

Unread postby tired » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:02 pm

I about chocked on my beer when they mentioned that mock draft. Then I see Sagarin has the Bucks at 15.
Vegas only has us as a 4.5 pt. fav.over wisky. I thought that would of been more.
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Re: First BCS, projection, sound about right...

Unread postby hermanfontenot » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:15 pm

Not surprised that Boise is a projected #1. They've beaten two solid BCS teams in Virginia Tech and Oregon State, both of which are trending upward.

That WAC schedule is going to take a toll on them for sure, though.
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Re: First BCS, projection, sound about right...

Unread postby furls » Mon Oct 11, 2010 12:49 pm

Win out and then worry about. This year, more than any other I can remember, is the year where I can honestly see several BCS conference schools undefeated.

Here is how I look at the BCS contenders:

OSU: We will have a much better feel after this weekend. If the Buckeyes survive in Madison then the only real remaining test is at Iowa. I like the Buckeyes chances to run the table.

MSU: Can run the table if they can get past Illinois and Iowa. They have a legitimate shot, I wouldn't call it a great shot, but it is possible the B10 could have two undefeated teams this year.

Oregon: The Ducks should run the table. The Pac Ten really doesn't have any great teams this year. While I think it is possible they could stumble against one of these "good" Pac Ten teams, I think it is equally likely that they won't. If they lose it would be an upset, but I wouldn't be shocked. I say the Ducks probably win out.

Nebraska: Should win out, at least to the B12 championship game. They don't have OU on the schedule and wouldn't face them until the conference championship. I am not totally sold on OU, and I think NE wins that game.

OU: Should win out to the B12 championship game although the sooners do still have games remaining with A&M, OSU, and Mizzou (all on the road). I think they are more likely to lose than NE, but one of these two should finish out undefeated.

I don't think anyone survives the SEC undefeated.

Someone, Utah or TCU, will be undefeated in the MWC although AF could play spoiler and undermine the whole league.

Either Nevada or BSU will be undefeated as well.

The recent play of Illinois has me wondering, what if Mizzou (who beat the Illini in week one) is much better than everyone thinks? I am not sure if they can survive the season, but it does go along way towards explaining OSU vs. Illinois, what if Illinois really is a top 15-25 team? That defense has some players. If Mizzou is much better than they have gotten credit for, that certainly makes life tougher for OU or NE.

In the end, right now I think it is plausible that we could have the following teams undefeated at the end of the year (ranked in order of likelihood to finish undefeated):

1. BSU/Nevada
2. TCU/Utah
3. Oregon
4. Ohio State
5. Nebraska/Oklahoma
6. Michigan State
7. Auburn/LSU

I almost hope that it happens.
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Re: First BCS, projection, sound about right...

Unread postby FUDU » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:01 pm

No where for VaTech to go UBT up Herm, really.

I think VaTech screws this up a bit in the first few rankings b/c of their game with Boise and their follow up loss to App St. 2.0.

I agree with you Furls that Oregon/Nebraska/Buckeyes have pretty good shots at being undefeated. While Boise does as well I can't get behind their schedule rationalizing anything higher than a 4 or 5 ranking.

The game OSU could use to help them in all this would be MSU, second last game of the year.

Personally I am pulling for an OSU/Neb match up, still a somewhat likely chance of it happening but I would guess Oregon would be our opponent before Neb if us and Oregon ran the table.
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Re: First BCS, projection, sound about right...

Unread postby Triple-S » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:14 pm

TOSU/NEB. just seems like a good matchup from a big ten fans perspective.

all things considered, it really can't end all that badly.

If TOSU loses, you won't see people pile on and claim how the Big Ten is slow/unathletic, etc, because, Ohio State all but lost a glorified conference championship.

If TOSU wins, the monkey's off our backs, people will again, shut up, and we get to brag that much like the SEC we have two national championship contenders in our conference.
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Re: First BCS, projection, sound about right...

Unread postby Triple-S » Mon Oct 11, 2010 1:16 pm

A purely hypothetical here, but, if Boise St or TCU push out a one-loss SEC/Big XII team to be in the nationl championship game, is this where we may finally see a push for a playoff, or at the very least a +1 format?
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Re: First BCS, projection, sound about right...

Unread postby hermanfontenot » Mon Oct 11, 2010 2:30 pm

I think Nebraska is going to lose a game at some point. I just don't see them running the table with a true freshman quarterback.
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